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Published on Tuesday, 15 April 2014 22:53

De Brabantse Pijl Preview

Wednesday 16th April, 203kms

The last of the 'Flanders Classics' as defined by the organising company that run the Omloop, Gent Wevelgem, the Ronde etc takes place this Wednesday, bringing an end to a brilliant spring season of racing. De Brabantse Pijl or 'the Brabantse arrow' is generally one for the punchy riders who can sprint a bit! 

Defending champion Peter Sagan is not here this week following his hard effort in Paris-Roubaix, but the man he defeated by millimeters last year, Philippe Gilbert is (above). Gilbert also won this race in 2011 with Tommy Voeckler sandwiched in between in 2012 with a brave solo effort. 

It's a really tough course, one for the real battlers and puncheurs.. Looking at last years result there were riders coming in on their own more or less for the first 13 places and then they were scattered all over the road after that. It was incredible how spread out they were, with a third of the field DNF'ing. It was even worse in 2012 when Voeckler won, with only 44 finishing out of 180 starters. 

This is a race also won by Oscar Freire three years running from 2005 with Luca Paolini in 2004 and Sylvian Chavanel winning it in 2008. But three years running still isn't enough to put him at the top of the 'most wins' chart, that honor falls to Belgian cycling 90's legends Edwin Van Hooydonck and Johann Museuuw with 4 wins a piece. 

Part of the reason for the high numbers of DNF'ers that year was the terrible weather - hail and rain, they should have no such problems this year as another beautful sunny day is forecast. Another reason for the high number of DNF'ers in general in this race is the tough course, but also because of the nature of the race - it essentially is a training ride to prepare for the Ardennes Classics for most of the peloton, which kick off on Sunday with the Amstel Gold race. When you're out of contention or just not feeling like you want to push yourself too much, there isn't the same incentive to try and finish it as there is say to finish the Ronde or Roubaix. 

It is a natural transition race from the cobbled Flanders Classics to the hillier Ardennes Classics - it has plenty of hills, 25 of them no less, but they are short and sharp compared to the longer Ardennes hills. There are also some cobbled sections to help ease the transition for the cobbles lovers. 

The Route

The route starts in its traditional start town of Leuven and heads in a predominantly south-westerly direction, pausing for a tricky little loop around the area just east of Overijse. This little loop contains the climb of the Rue de Hal after 57kms and also the former landmark climbs of the Alsemberg after 67kms and the Bruineput after 73km.

After taking in the climbs of the Karbosstraat, Rue de Nivelles, Chaussee de Bruxelles and Rue Francois Dubois in that loop section It then continues south-west until almost reaching Nivelles, before turning sharply and heading back north. They pass a number of Hellingen on the way before hitting the finishing loop which they take three times in total. And although there will be the traditional long break out front for most of the day, it's when they hit this finishing loop that things start to kick off. 

The finishing circuit has no fewer than five climbs over its 23.4kms, two of which are cobbled, meaning that they have to tackle 15 climbs over the closing 70kms! But it's not just that though, as by the time they hit the finishing line to start the final loop they have already climbed four of the five climbs!

The main challenges on the finishing circuit are the cobbled climbs of the Ijskelderlaan which comes 4.2kms from the finish line and the Schavei which is just 1.2km from the finish. Once they crest the top the riders make a left-hand turn onto a gradual uphill finishing straight with just 200m to go to the line. The last 5kms are quite tricky with lots of bends and twists, including some hairpin bends on a descent so you can see why riders come in in ones and twos with a finishing circuit like that.  

Contenders and Favourites

As I've mentioned before this is a race suited to a strong punchy type who can sprint a bit. Punchy attackers like Thomas Voeckler in his prime in 2012 who can come to the finish solo or with a small group and win the sprint like Sagan or Gilbert. Out and out sprinters rarely win here and the field is often decimated from the relentless hills they face over the last 70kms, especially on the last circuit when the pace it really up.

Gilbert is the natural favourite for this race and ranges between 2/1 and 5/2. He won this in 2011 when he was at his absolute peak, dominating the Ardennes classics in the weeks that followed. He also was just beaten by Sagan when well clear of Leukemans in 3rd place last year, 12th in 2012, 5th in 2010, 9th in 2009, 2nd in 2008. In fact he has never finished lower than 12th place in the 6 runnings he has been in. 

He has prepared differently this year to see if he can rediscover the magic of 2011, which has been sadly missing in recent years. He skipped the cobbled classics, instead doing the Pays Basque where he rode well considering the hilly route. He also rode well in San Remo, attacking on the Poggio so despite his lack of results and big-ticket races so far this year, he has been preparing with a focus.

His entire season could revolve around the next three weeks so it is vitally important he gets off to a good start. He is bound to be the 'road boss' as this is his race, and he is sure to be involved on the final circuit and indeed maybe even the final, decisive ascent. He is missing the rider that was a big help to him last year, Greg Van Avermaet who is recovering from his PR crash, so he might find himself isolated in the latter stages. 

But is he worth backing at 5/2? Well let's take a look at the competition first. 

Tom Jelte Slagter comes next in some bookies betting but he is not on Garmin's roster they released mid afternoon. Instead though they have Nathan Haas and Daniel Martin in the race. Haas might be an interesting runner at 25/1 as he can climb these short ones and has a very strong sprint on him, but his lack of top form recently makes him a no-bet for me. Daniel Martin treated this as a training race for the bigger classics last year and I can see him doing the same again this year. 

Orica Green-Edge come with probably the strongest squad of the race, despite only doing this race for the first time. They have several potential winners depending on how the day goes with Simon Gerrans, Michael Matthews, Daryl Impey and Simon Yates in their squad. Gerrans is the bookies 2nd favourite if you ignore Slagter, at 7/1 to 10/1 odds. He started the year with a bang but has been very quite since.He is the team captain for the Ardennes Classics and is targeting Amstel Gold on Sunday.

He usually skips Fleche-Wallone and finds Liege a bit too hard for him, so this week is huge for him. He is perfectly at home on these short, sharp hills and is more than a match for Gilbert as he has proved before (notably in Amstel last year). He has a superb team with him and this is where the race could be decided - on the final two ascents, we could well see 2-3 team-mates with Gerrans and Gilbert might not have any. But what sort of form is he in? Well that's really hard to tell as we haven't seen a lot of him lately - he missed MSR due to sickness and did Pays Basque but barely made an impression. It could be his undoing tomorrow and it could be just a good training ride ahead of Sunday's big one.

Next we have Tommy Voeckler at 13/1 best, and although you should never rule out Voeckler, especially as he is a past winner of this race, I am going to, I just cannot see him winning it tomorrow, and especially as he doesn't seem to be on Europcar's starting roster (although they have only finalised 6 out of the 8 places so far, so they might be waiting on his well-being or something).

The next rider interests me a lot though - Bjorn Leukemans came towards us on the Kwaremont on his own chasing the leaders in the Ronde, and I must admit we had no clue who he was.. a Wanty rider approaching on his own ahead of the main favourites, we didn't figure out it was Leukemans at all. It was only when I got back and watched the highlights did I see what a briliant race he rode, grabbing it by the scruff of the neck and taking on the big boys. 9th that day and 15th in Paris-Roubaix shows he is in great form right now.

Not only that though, but boy does he like this race - 3rd in 2013, 2nd in 2011 (didn't ride 2012), 7th in 2010, 4th in 2009, 7th in 2007, 12th in 2006. In fact in the 7 runnings he has entered, 13th is his worst result he achieved in 2004! He's certainly mr. Consistency and he should be there or thereabouts again tomorrow. At 16/1 I think he is worth an each-way bet with Paddy Power. 

Wouter Poels is also an interesting runner at 18/1 with Paddy Power - he was superb in the Pays Basque, winning the Queen stage ahead of the big guns and was very strong on most of the climbs, leading to a 12th place overall finish. Although he is clearly going well this year he has never done very well in this, finishing in the 20-40s sorts of places, enough to make me skip over him. 

Should Gerrans falter tomorrow he has very able deputies in Michael Matthews, Darryl Impey and Simon Yates. Matthews is probably the most likely though to get a good result out of his, all depends on how much work he will have had to do for Gerrans and whether he will have the freedom and be able to go with the decisive attacks on the last lap. I think it might work against him though and am avoiding him too. Simon Yates has been riding brilliantly this year and 12th place in the Pays Basque race shows just how good his climbing legs are. He is a lively outsider at a huge 100/1. 

Tony Gallopin could be a real lively contender too though - he was 6th in the E3 and rode very well in the Ronde, eventually finishing 23rd, but in the same group as Sagan, Degenkolb and Stybar. He won the Classica San Sebastian last year so a course like this should hold him no fears and he has a very powerful sprint as he proved that day when holding off Valverde surprisingly. He has Jurgen Van Den Broeck with him tomorrow who should be a help in the climbs and he could ride a big race. 

Mauro Finetto and Sonny Colibrelli are two Italians who could go well, as could Fabio Felline and they range between 20/1 and 50/1 so they might be worth a few quid each-way if you are a fan of any of them, but the (lack of) strength in depth on their teams worry me a little. They will have to fend for themselves I fear at the finish. 

Dries Devenyns, Davide Rebellin, Jan Bakelants, Pieter Serry, Simon Geschke and Gerald Ciolek are others who could go well, but for now my recommendations are as follows:

Bjorn Leukemans - 0.75pts each-way at 16/1 with Paddy Power

Tony Gallopin - 0.5pts each-way at 33/1 with Skybet

Philippe Gilbert - 3pts win at 11/4 on Betfair (looking to get matched, will take 5/2 if necessary)

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