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- Published on Sunday, 23 March 2014 22:30
Volta Ciclista a Catalunya - Overall Preview and Stages
March 24th - 30th 2014
The Volta a Catalunya is the fourth-oldest cycling stage race in the world (first run in 1911), only behind the Tour de France (1903), Tour of Belgium (1908) and the Giro d'Italia (1909). This year is the 94th edition, with Ireland's Dan Martin looking to retain his crown.
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Previous Winners of Volta a Catalunya |
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2013 Daniel Martin (IRL) Garmin-Sharp |
| 2012 Michael Albasini (SUI) Green Edge |
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2011 Michele Scarponi (ITA) Lampre-ISD |
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2010 Joaquin Rodriguezz (ESP) Katusha |
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2009 Alejandro Valverde (ESP) C. d'Epargne |
This is a race for puncheurs and climbers, sprinters don't normally have a chance. A look through the previous winners shows the type of riders suited to the hilly terrain and challenging stages. Scarponi, Rodriguez, Valverde, Heras, Beloki, Beltran, Indurain, Kelly, Millar (Robert, not David), Moser, Gimondi, Merckx - a who's who of cycling legends.
Last year's race was won in brilliant fashion by Dan Martin, to kick start a memorable year for him. This is a race Martin loves and has done very well in - in the four years he has entered it to date he has finished fourth, second twice and first. It helps of course that he lives locally in Girona, these are his training roads. It helped that the leader, Valverde crashed out on Stage 2 but Martin rode away from the remains of the peloton on the Queen stage (Stage 4) to Port Ainé–Rialp to a stunning stage victory and held it to the end, marking his closest rival Rodriguez perfectly on the final stage in Barcelona.
He faces a super-competitive field this year though - Chris Froome is making his return from his back injury that kept him out of Tirreno-Adriatico, lining up alongside his Sky Team-mate Richie Porte who pulled out of Tirreno with illness. We also have stylish winner of Tirreno, Alberto Contador and gutsy winner of Paris-Nice, Carlos Betancur, former winner Joaquin Rodriguez, Paris-Nice runner-up Nairo Quintana, Rigoberto Uran, Wilko Kelderman, Samu Sanchez and Van Garderen for BMC, Chris Horner and PIerre Rolland. Lotto-Belisol's Jurgen Van den Broeck makes a return from his leg injury he suffered on stage 2 of Tirreno.
With a particularly lumpy parcours there are few chances for the sprinters and the few sprinters that are lining up may have to wait until stages 5 and 6 until they get a chance. Stages 3 and 4 look to be the key stages but there are other stages that could still see some furious action and 1, 3 and 5 could all see time gaps that could affect the GC outcome.
The Route and Stage Predictions
The route loops around the Catalunya region of north-east Spain skirting along the coast for quite a bit of it but also venturing up in to the hills around Girona, almost entering France and the principality of Andorra. There is a lot of climbing involved right from the very first stage which involves a Cat 1 climb and two Cat 3 and on stage 2 they start climbing the climb of the Alt de Can Bordoi right from the flag drop, climbing nearly 300m inside the first 10kms!
The GC men need to be sharp and alert right from the start and on all stages as there are possibilities of splits, breaks and even accidents on descents. With no time trial in the race it could be very tight at the top given the quality of the field - Froome, Contador, Quintana, Rodriguez and even Uran and Betancur - there may not be a whole lot between them on any given stage. The 4th stage, with its summit finish up to Vallter 2000 / Setcases looks like it is the one that will seperate the men from the boys although the climbs in the region are not overly tough compared to Pyrennean or Alpine climbs so time gaps between the big guys should be tight.
The final stage should be exciting too with the 8 ascensions up the Alt de Montjuic, it could lead to a tense finale if it's close at the top. The organisers have made a slight change this year to the race though in that they have added time bonuses in - 10,6,4 seconds are up for grabs on all stages except 3 and 4 and there is a 'Miguel Poblet' sprint on every stage that gives 3,2 and 1 second bonuses.
Click on each tab to read stage previews and recommendations. Stage information and predictions will be added closer to each stage.
Stage 1
Stage 1 - Calella to Calella, 169.7km
Monday March 24th
Stage 1 starts the Volta with a bang with two Cat 3 and and Cat 1 climb inside the opening 150kms of the race. The course is set up for an early break which could well be reeled in on the tough, long climb up to the Alt de Monseny (6km at 5.6%) if the GC men decide to light things up as early as that. Or maybe it might stay away a bit longer if they GC men decide to wait until closer to the finish and the Cat 3 climb to the Alt de Colsacreu, as once they are over the top of that it is a very fast 20km drop back down to the finish in Calella.
It has a fair chance of ending in a bunch sprint though or possibly even a late launch off the front on the descent down to the finish. There are few sprinters in the race though and the sprinters that are here will need to be able to climb though to be at the finish of this one. Of the contenders we have starting in Calella, let's look at who can either climb and sprint, or can possibly attack on the last climb or on the descent to the finish in a breakaway move.
First the sprinters and really you could narrow it down to Leigh Howard of OGE, Luca Mezgec of Team Giant-Shimano, Sam Dumoulin of AG2R, Daniel Ratto of Cannondale, Giacomo Nizzolo of Trek and Roberto Ferrari of Lampre Merida. Howard was flying in Oman with 2 superb, and very unlucky second places. He should be able to cope with the climbs and should be right in the mix at the finish.
Sam Dumoulin has a great record in this race with 3 stage victories and has a good AG2R squad with him to help him get to the finish. He has had two top 3 finishes this year and should be a strong contender at the finish too given the terrain. Giacomo Nizzolo should be there or thereabouts too, a good climber for a sprinter, he was a super winner of a stage in San Luis when beating Ventoso and Boonen but he has only raced once since the start of February and that was 4 days ago when he finished 95th.. I think I'll leave him alone for now.
The favourite for the stage is Luca Mezgec at 5/1 and that is understandable given he was the winner of the Handzame classic just three days ago against a very in-form Theo Bos. I think though at the prices I'd rather be on Dumoulin at 7/1, but no big stakes at all given the complicated and unknown nature of how this stage might go.
There is also the possibility of Luis Leon Sanchez or someone like that attacking towards the finish but it's more than likely to be a bunch finish, with Dumoulin and Mezgec dueling for victory.
Recommendation:
1pt win on Sam Dumoulin at 7/1 with BetVictor
Stage 2
Stage 2 - Mataró to Girona, 168km
Tuesday March 25th
The first stage ended as expected with the few sprinters that have made the trip to Catalunya battling it out. Luca Mezgec was the strongest today in a slightly uphill finish, narrowly beating OGE's Leigh Howard, who had to settle for another 2nd place finish this year. I did say he would be duelling for victory, but my man Dumoulin started his sprint from way too far back and although he was flying at the end he only finished in 9th place. You can see it in the video below, he is in the white kit flashing through at 2'26" just behind the first group.
Stage 2 is a similar sort of stage in that they have a number of lumps and bumps to get over, but none so difficult as to put the sprinters in big trouble you'd think, as most of the sprinters that are here are well able to climb as I mentioned before. They start climbing straight from the flag drop though and immediately hit a Cat 3 climb up to the Alt de Can Bordoi (2.8kms at 5.3% average) and expect Txurruka to go for a long one today to hoover up more KOM points following his impressive ride today. Who goes with him will be interesting, but you can't see a break going all the way as once they crest the Cat 2 climb up to the Alt de Santo Pelaia it is mainly rolling, uncategorised roads to the finish.
The Alt de Can Bordoi is 5.9kms but at an average of just 4%, with a max of just 6%, so you'd imagine it will just be crested at a steady tempo in pursuit of the break. There's a small rise of less than 3% for 2.5km not far from the finish, but expect a bunch sprint again I reckon.
Megzec was a super winner today, hovering on Howard's excellent lead-out and pouncing with 100m or so to go. He had the kick to take him past Howard and held them all at bay. He is a strong candidate for 2 in a row, but his price is very short at just 15/8 with BetVictor, he's not exactly Marcel Kittel is he!
Third place today was a surprise it seemed to Kirby and Backstedt as they couldn't identify the OPQS 'mystery man' - but he was of course the young Frenchman Julian Alaphilippe. The 21year old took a while to get in to full gear, but had positioned himself brilliantly on Howard's wheel and as they passed the line he was going fastest of the first three and pulled it to just a half a bike-length to Howard. He put in some seriously impressive results last year in his first year on a World Tour team, taking a stage, three 3rd places and the points jersey in the Tour de L'Avenir 2013.
When BetVictor opened tonight @danlinfield tweeted to say that they were 200/1 on Alaphilippe and I couldn't believe it.. but yes they were and I managed to get 0.2pts each-way on at 200/1. I would have taken an each-way bet on the 33/1 they cut him to almost immediately, and I should have taken some more, but I didn't and he is 10/1 now, as short as 7/1.. I'll be screaming Allez Allez at the screen tomorrow if he is in the mix! If you watch the video from 1.10 or so you can see OPQS had 3 men in the sprint, if they can get themselves organised a bit better tomorrow they should come very close.
I also think Leigh Howard has to be in the first 3 as he showed he is in superb form and has a great lead-out from Bewley and Lancaster who are sure to deliver him to the front with 200m to go again. Tomorrow's stage has a flatter profile than today's and that is right up his street. I took some of the 9/2 available with Bet365, he is just 3/1 with BetVictor. Dumoulin is a tempting looking 16/1 with Bet365 though, he may well get a lot closer tomorrow if he positions himself a bit better.
Ferrari could get involved tomorrow as could Ratto of Cannondale and Roux of AG2R but I wouldn't be surprised if my man Dumoulin got a bit closer tomorrow. Don't rule out a late break from the likes of either of the two Sanchez's, Kelderman, or Betancur, but I am pretty sure it'll be a sprint again with Howard, Mezgec, Alaphilippe, Ratto and Dumoulin scrapping it out.
On the outright betting front, Contador has shortened in to as low as 6/4 without pedalling in anger, this looks like it is down to Porte losing time today as he was ill and rumours that Quintana also isn't feeling well. Froome and Rodriguez are still solid at 3/1 and 9/2 respectively.. It looks more and more like it will be between the three of them, but we'll soon find out Rodriguez's well-being too.
Recommendations/Bets:
0.2pts each-way on Julian Alaphilippe at 200/1 with BetVictor (long gone, 10/1 is a bit short now..)
1.5pts eacy-way on Leigh Howard at 9/2 with Bet365
0.5 pts each-way on Samuel Dumoulin at 16/1 with BetVictor (correction, had written win by accident, it's each-way.)
Stage 2 Map
Stage 2 Profile
Stage 3
Stage 3 - Banyoles to La Molina (Alp), 162.9km
Wednesday 26th March
Things start to heat up now on Stage 3, with the roads getting steeper and higher as they head towards the Pyrenees mountains around Andorra. The stages starts with a bang and ends with a bang. They start climbing from the start and for the first 40kms they are heading upwards, but the road kicks up hard between kilometre 30 and 40 as they scale the Cat1 climb of the Alt de Coubet which averages 5.5% over it's 10km ascent, hitting 10% in places as it rises to a height of 1031m.
Then a short descent in to the valley towards Ripoll before starting up the Especiale (E) climb of the day (equivalent to the Haute Category climbs in the TDF). The Alt de la Creueta is a massive 25kms from the bottom with 21kms of it classed for the climb at an average of 4.5%, hitting a max gradient of 9%). Then a very fast and tricky 20km descent down to the valley again where they pass the finish line going in the opposite direction as they start a loop of the finishing circuit around La Molina.
The final climb is actually about 22kms long from the base of the valley, but the categorised part (Cat 1) is only the final 11kms of it (the grey shaded area below). It averages a relatively manageable 5.3%, hitting max gradients of 8%, but at this point in the day and with GC men looking to test each other it is sure to be fast and painful.
It is sure to see the first real showdown between the main contenders, but I can't really see major time gaps at the finish as the finishing climb is neither steep enough nor long enough to cause the main GC men much problems. I can see a group of maybe 15 riders or so coming to the line together and a sprint between them can decide it and the time bonus should see a new leader take over.
*Update - 25/03, 21:30* So near and yet so far.. Alaphilippe hit's the front with 300m to go in a mess of a sprint, I'm sure causing much butt-clenching in the BetVictor offices as the 200/1 I had backed him at looked like providing a very handsome return with a place at worst. Unfortunately he was passed by Mezgec who finished like a train and then by Ratto and Ferrari as he tied up near the line. No sign of Dumoulin who never got in a blow and Howard faded badly after getting a leadout to the last 400m.
On to stage 3 then and this should be a stage where we start to see really how all the top guys really are and whether the sicknesses and illnesses that seem to be afflicting the peloton at the moment are as bad as rumoured. Contador has said that he doesn't know the finish but that he will take each day as it comes, at least until Thursday. Looks like he has plans for Thursday then.. As it is though I think he will be right up at the front tomorrow at the finish and is sure to be in the top 3 at worst. He made a little cameo at the front today as they hit the 1km to go banner, pulling away momentarily from the sprinters teams. This could have been an act of bravado and a show of strength from Contador, showing his rivals he is in great shape..
Chris Froome is sure to crank things up with his remaining team-mates on the pull up to the finish, the 5km to 3km to go parts are the steepest. Whether he can shake off the likes of Contador, Quintana, Betancur, Rodriguez etc is the question.. if he is not 100%, then I can't see it happening. If he does drag these guys to the last 500m he is vulnerable to multiple attacks and may come home outside the first three. Or then again he could put the legs in to 'Windmill' mode and roar away from them!
Nairo Quintana is one that I will be leaving alone tomorrow, my original doubts about his well-being, coupled with talk that he is on antibiotics makes him a no-bet for me.
Carlos Betancur could well be involved with a late attack as Froome, Contador, Rodriguez watch each other. He has the guile and the legs maybe but I am not going to back him at 6/1. Not sure what to expect from Horner tomorrow.
Joaquin Rodriguez will like this climb, and could well be the one to sprint away to victory. The sections at 7-10% in between 3 and 5 kms to go might hurt him a little but if he can get over that with or close to the leaders he should be able to hang in there on the slightly easier last 3 kms (average around 4.5%). There are few better than him at accelerating away to victory and it will be intertesting to see how fresh he is after his racing break which he spent at a training camp on Mont Teide, the highest point in all of Spain on the island of Tenerife.
An outsider at a big price is Amets Txurruka, he will be after KOM points tomorrow and may well be with the big guys coming to the finish. If he jumps with a few kilometres to go he might just slip the net and get a gap if the GC men start looking at each other. I was going to back him at 200/1 with BetVictor but I see they must have the work experience boy on the market again tonight as they are offering win only and pricing it up to an appalling over-round. They were 106% for the first 6 in the betting, Paddy Power were 75% for the same riders, and are paying 3 places. Instead I took the 80/1 each-way with Bet365.
I don't have time to do a full Dwars Door Vlanderen preview, it looks like an absolute minefield though! I do like the look of two though - Stijn Devolder is going to be my man this year hopefully - I'm on him at 250/1 for Flanders! He has been going really well of late, with some great showings in the climbs and the time trials of the Tirreno, and he will be Trek's leader tomorrow as there is no Fabian on the start line. At 28/1 (I tried to take 33/1 but just missed it!) I think he is a bet.
Jens Keukeleire is also one that fancies this and is a massive price at 40/1 with Ladbrokes. Winner of a stage, two 3rd places and the overall GC in last year's Driedaagse van West-Vlaanderen around these roads around Oudenaarde and Ronse in west Flanders, he is going to be there at the finish you'd imagine and has a good chance at a great price. If it comes down to a sprint I am against Boonen and would think it's between Hofland, Kristoff and maybe Ciolek.
Recommendations:
Joaquin Rodriguez - 2pts win at 5/1 with Bet365
Amets Txurruka - 0.25pts each way at 80/1 with Bet365
Dwars Door Vlanderen:
Stijn Devolder - 1pt each-way at 28/1 with Bet365
Jen Keukeleire - 0.75pts each-way at 40/1 with Ladbrokes
Stage 4
Stage 4 - Alp to Vallter 2000-Setcases, 166.4km
Thursday March 27th
This is it then, the Queen stage of the race and the stage most likely, on paper at least to decide the top placings on the overall GC. They start with a bang with a Cat1 climb straight out the blocks, climbing 800m in the first 19kms to the Collade de Tosses, and although its a Cat1 climb it isn't really a difficult one, averaging just 3%. It should see a flurry of early attacks though from the likes of Txurruka and anyone who wants to challenge for the KOM jersey and maybe some of the local Girona residents on their training roads. They head back down the valley descending for the best part of 40kms to Ripoll which they passed through the day before.
It's then a quick trip up the Cat 2 climb of the Alt de Canes before they descend for 15km. Then the serious stuff comes thick and fast - first up a Cat 1 climb of the Alt de Oix, followed by another Cat 1 of the Rocabruna which hits a max of 14% and averages 5.6% over 7.5kms.
After a flat, plateau section they hit the intermediate sprint with just under 20kms to go and start climbing the base of the final climb up to the Especiale category finish. It's 20kms from the bottom but officially it's clocked at 12kms at an average gradient of 7.8%, hitting a max slope of 12%. The last two kilometres are particularly hard sections in the 2km to go part hitting 12%, with the last kilometre averaging 9%.
This is a far tougher stage and finish than today's, which suited Rodriguez perfectly.. Tomorrow though is Contador's I believe - the day he lays down a big marker on his main rivals. I can see this being like stage 4 of Tirreno-Adriatico to Cittareale where he watched and marked everything comfortably and rode away from them in the last 500m. He looked pretty comfortable today but had no answer to Purito'a explosive attack. He proved he was the best of the rest though and I think he can go one place better tomorrow. He opened at 9/4 with Paddy Power while being as low as evens elsewhere so I hit that. It was quickly slashed to 6/4, which is a bit short but if you can get 2/1 or better if take it.
Quintana was not able to go with the final attack today, but the fact he got so close suggest he could be recovering from his illness. He could well be the one to chase Contador home tomorrow. Chris Froome tried and failed today to get away with 800m to go and as I warned might happen, he finished outside the top 3, losing valuable seconds. I can't be backing him tomorrow on what is going to be a far tougher stage.
Joaquin Rodriguez looked excellent today and the sharpest of the lot of them which I suspected he might be with his break from racing and his special training programme.. Tomorrow might just be a little too hard for him but he has an excellent team with him as I highlighted in the preview for the overall, and they might just get him in contention again. I can see him chasing Quintana home, just a few seconds behind.
This steeper finish could also suit Domenico Pozzovivo a bit more, he did ok today but he doesn't like the medium slopes as much as the steeper ones, and he might just get a lot closer tomorrow. At 33/1 with BetVictor he could be a lively outsider to gate crash the fab four's party. *Sorry, BetVictor are annoyingly offering win-only again so instead take the 25/1 each-way with Bet365.*
Remember also there are no time bonuses at the finish of today's stage so Contador needs to get a gap if he wants to take over the lead and today's probably his best chance of doing that. Watch out for weather news too, as there was a possibility the stage finish might be shortened due to snow at the summit.
Recommendations
Alberto Contador - 3pts win at 9/4 with Paddy Power
0.5pts each-way on Nairo Quintana at 7/1 with BetVictor
0.25pts each-way on Domenicopo Pozzovivo at 33/1 with BetVictor 25/1 with Bet365
Stage 5
Stage 5 - Llanars Vall de Camprodon to Valls, 218.2km
Friday March 28th
Well, we didn't see much of what happened, but the stage almost went to plan, except Contador got caught marking rivals he really should have been watching Van Garderen skipping up the road. From what I could see of the finish (see video below) he appeared to be flying at the finish but had let it too late, easily had the beating of Froome, Rodriguez and Quintana as I thought he might. By leaving it as late as he did too he has probably blown his chances of winning it but it looks like my overall win and each way bets on Rodriguez are in the bag. Very pleased with how that has turned out, called it spot on.
Fantastic ride by Van Garderen today though and it is really starting to shape up like being an exciting Tour de France after looking like anything but only a few months ago. Contador is flying, Froome is struggling, Van Garderen is going well - it's a lot more open on paper now for sure.
On to stage 5 then and it looks like a stage that should come down to a sprint finish. It should, but there is the little matter of the Cat 2 Alt de Lilla to get over, just 8kms from the finish in Valls, 7kms of which are a fast descent. So it could be a sprint finish, but equally there could be a few who fancy a late attack and as Sean Kelly would say "a Kamakaze" descent down to the finish.
It's the kind of move you could see Jens Voigt (80/1), Thomas Voeckler (20/1) or Luis Leon Sanchez (10/1) pulling. Out of that lot, Sanchez is the most likely but 10/1 is a lot shorter than I was hoping for, was hoping it would be double that at least. He rolled in in 35th today which wasn't a bad result at all and tomorrow is his kind of finish. I'm waiting to see if I can get bigger than 10/1 though if some of the other bookies open up.
Another that interests me a little is Dani Moreno at 28/1 with Bet365. He has been working very hard for Purito and may fancy a crack tomorrow as long as Purito is safe and sound, but on the balance of things I think he'll be sticking by his side to ensure no mishaps. I wouldn't put it past Contador or Van Garderen to give it a go down the descent, if they get lucky they might steal a few seconds.
Luca Mezgec is favourite at 4/1 but the fact that he is 4/1 and not odds on (which he would be if this was a more straight forward sprint stage) suggests that the chances of a sprint are not as high as a break of some sort getting it, or the sprinters getting dropped.
So it's a very hard one to call, I don't want to back Mezgec, will have a little dabble on Luis Leon if I can get better than 10/1 (will post it here) but main bet of the day is in the E3 Harelbeke, preview for that will be live very soon!
Recommendations:
Will wait a little longer before confirming my bets
I really couldn't see any value in any of the runners as it was such an open field. I went with small (0.5pts) win bets on Luis Leon Sanchez at 8/1 with Bet365 and Thomas de Gendt at 25/1. There may be some in-play available, but with a break 7 minutes up the road, they have a chance of staying away.
Stage 6
Stage 6 - El Vendrell to Vilanova i la Geltru, 172km
Saturday March 29th
Short preview tonight as it's my son's birthday and I'm taking a night off!
There's only two stages left and it looks like it could all come down to the final stage in to Barcelona and the 8 times up the Montjuic as this stage looks like one for the sprinters. The stage climbs more or less for the first 85kms and then descends for the next 80kms with one little blip on the way of the Cat 3 Alt de Font-Rubi.
It should be a very fast finish as they drop nearly 600m in 60kms as they head back down towards the coast and the finish in Vilanova i la Geltru. They hit the city with about 4kms to go and do a little loop around to the east side before finishing back near the seafront. The last kilometre or so, as you can see in the map of the finish on the right, is dead straight and should lead to another fast finish, perfect for Luca Mezgec to nab another stage win.
Roberto Ferrari and Daniele Ratto were the two fastest of the rest of the bunch in stage 2, but they came from way too far back to trouble Mezgec. I think they will be a lot closer this time and they look the most likely to fill the top 3.
Julian Alaphilippe came very close to winning on Stage 2 but he displayed the inexperience of youth by first starting his sprint too soon, then nearly crashing in to the crowd on the roadside and was passed in the last 100m by the fast finishing trio mentioned above. There won't be 200/1 available on him probably ever again but let's see what price he is tomorrow night before making a decision.
Leigh Howard needs to get a good result too though after faring poorly on stage 2 after a 2nd place on the first stage. On paper he should be fighting for a top 3 but has some strong competition now from Ferrari and Ratto. I expect OGE to be giving this one really strong effort to get a good result though so will wait to see what kind of prices are available on all of the above before making a decision.
Well, the prices are out and Mezgec is a prohibitively short 4/6 best price, as short as 1/2. Who can beat him though but that price is not one I'm interested in. I was annoyed today to see two guys I gave chances to earlier in the week - Julian Alaphilippe and Sam Dumoulin, finish in in 2nd and 3rd place respectively. Dumoulin was going the fastest at the finish but yet again he got himself in a terrible position and left it too late to come from so far back. He might be worth taking a chance with tomorrow for a top 3 with 888 Sport at 4/1. 12/1 on Alaphilippe is tempting but way too short now. Nothing else interests me at the prices.
Recommendations:
Samuel Dumoulin - 1pt to finish in top 3 at 4/1 with 888 Sport
Stage 7
Stage 7 - Barcelona (Montjuic) to Barcelona (Montjuic), 120.7km
Sunday March 30th
So it comes down to the final stage then with only a handful of seconds separating the top 6 as I almost expected it to. If it stays like this I'll be happy. If Contador manages to steal it from him on the final day I'll be even happier as a Contador win and a Purito second wins me more than the other way around! If they blow it and someone else wins it ill be very upset!
It should be a very exciting stage as a lot of riders have a lot to play for - the stage win is up for grabs but more importantly the Top 6 and the overall winner can still be decided. It may only be 120.7km, starting and finishing in Barcelona, but it's going to be fast and furious. We've seen some fantastic attacking riding over the last week and this should be no different.
After 21.5kms they crest the first Cat 3 Alt de Castellbisbal which is a nice easy 4.4kms at 3.5%. After another little bump in the Alt de Corbera, 3.9kms at 4.7%, they head back towards Barcelona. After 7kms they pass the finish line and begin the crucial part of the day as they head on to the finishing circuit. It's a 6.15km loop of the city that takes them up the Cat 3 Montjuic climb (2kms at 5.7%) and then back downhill for 3.6kms to the finish line.
In the Vuelta in 2012 Gilbert and Rodriguez got away and stayed with Gilbert taking the win. Last year in this stage Scarponi rode his socks off to get in a winning break with De Gendt, Kiserlovski and Lopez, which helped move him up to 3rd in the GC. De Gendt took a great victory.
Anything could happen tomorrow, it really could. Expect Contador to be on the offensive, as should Quintana, Van Garderen and Bardet - it's go hard or go home time, there's a race to be won. Kiserlovski is sure to on the offensive again, he can move up a few places too.
The wide open nature of the stage is reflected in the betting - Contador is the co-favourite at 9/1 with Rodriguez and Bardet. If Contador wants to win the overall, he needs to attack and win the stage or at least have enough of a time gap on Purito to gain 5 seconds.
It could be chaotic - I expect a massive attack from Contador in the last ascent of the Monjuic, with a dive bomb descent down the other side. Hard to see Rodriguez letting him go though so you'd think Tinkoff-Saxo will be working him and putting him under pressure from a long way out. For that reason I am ruling out the sprinter types as I think the pace will just be too hard in the last 3-4 laps.
Kiserlovski has been active this week and looking strong and has previous on this stage. He could be one to slip the net in the at lap or two if Contador and Rodriguez are watching each other too closely. At 33/1 he doesn't look the worst of bets.
Kelderman is another at 33/1 that can be a danger tomorrow, he too has been riding well and was unlucky in Paris-Nice with a puncture at a valid moment. Thomas de Gendt can also be expected to be involved at 25/1.
Chris Froome and Nairo Quintana have something to prove also after relatively disappointing races, despite sitting in 6th and 5th place respectively. They both have explosive power for a climb like this and could still win the overall with a win with time gaps of only a few seconds. I can't see either of them winning it though.
There are just so many candidates - Fuglsang has been very lively and aggressive and is sure to give it a go at some point. Same for Ryder Hesjedal, Talansky, Burghardt and Naval. And what about Dan Martin? The reigning champ has been very disappointing and could look to go out with a bang. He is 25/1 if you fancy that.. Luis Leon and Samu Sanchez are both coming out of anonymous Volta so they will surely be looking to get involved.
So it really is a lottery. I could see a small group of the main men getting away on the last lap as Contador and Froome and Van Garderen all try to get away from Purito. There could be 8-10 involved and it then comes down to has the best sprint of a bunch of non sprinters. If Dan Martin is there, he could win that sprint. Contador sprinted to 6th two days ago so could win it. Kiserlovski or de Gendt could. So I'm spreading some stakes around on big prices, but leaving Contador and Purito as they are winning bets for me in the GC.
Recommendations:
Kiserlovski - 0.5pts win at 33/1 with Paddy Power.
De Gendt - 0.5pts win at 28/1 with Bet365
Dan Martin - 0.3pts win at 25/1 with Paddy Power
Wilco Kelderman - 0.3pts win at 33/1 with Paddy Power
Daniel Navarro - 0.3pts win at 100/1 with Paddy Power
Overaders and Favourites
Alberto Contador showed in Tirreno-Adriatico that he is in superb form and looking like he could be getting back to somewhere near his best. What is being attributed to his improvements this year has caused some controversy though, as some of the credit is being put down to his new 'coach' Steven de Jongh. De Jongh used to work with Sky but was cleared out as part of their 'Zero Tolerance Policy' which claimed a few of their staff last year. De Jongh admitted to using EPO 'a few times' when riding for TVM between 1998 and 2000.
Apparently it is being put down to things like training at altitude in Tenerife and controlling his weight. Like a former Tour winner and experienced pro cyclist like Contador has never tried something as revolutionary as that before... Anyway, that aside, Contador looked superb and even though I am not a fan I was delighted to see him skip away to land some decent stage and overall win bets for me in Tirreno Adriatico.
He should be fired up for this first confrontation with Froome since last year's Tour when we clearly was not his old self (thankfully some might say). But he will be coming in to this race following a hard race in Tirreno - the attack he made to win Stage 5 with the finish on the Muro would have taken a lot out of him, especially coming on the back of his victory the day before on the climb to Cittareale.
He proved though in Tirreno that he is still a fighter, a master tactician and is ruthless in a finish when on form. He can leave Froome do the pushing and the big attacks and go with him and jump him again at the finish to take stage victories. But as we saw in so many races last year, and specifically in the Tour with relation to Contador, when Froome gets those spindly legs pumping like fury he has no match for it. I just have a lingering doubt that this may just be the case again.
Chris Froome is a bit of an enigma too with regards to what form exactly he is going to turn up in - he was supreme in Oman, riding away from a quality field of GC riders on Green Mountain. In 2kms he put almost 30" in to Rodriguez and Van Garderen and only 7 riders were within a minute of him. If he attacks like that again on stage 4 it could be all over as it will be very hard on any of the other stages to pull back 30" from him. His early season form last season was fantastic too so it shows that he is ready and primed at this time of the year.
But that normal preparation was interrupted by a back injury which ruled him out of Tirreno-Adriatico and it is very hard to tell what effect this will have on his performance this week. Is his back fully recovered? If Contador and Rodriguez and Quintana put him under a lot of pressure will he suffer and crack? Will the loss of training because of having to rest it affect him? Who knows. I'll make a call when I see how it is priced up, no prices out yet for it.
Nairo Quintana to me is not tuned up enough to cause Froome or Contador problems in this race. He didn't look great to me in early season races after San Luis and I avoided him completely in Tirreno even though he was 2nd Favourite. The way he capitulated when Contador went on the attack was nothing like the Quintana we have grown to love, but he does have bigger targets to aim for in May with the Giro. It may be that he has to start stepping up his preparation now for that but I think he is not in good enough form to be considered a real contender in this race.
Joaquin Rodriguez has been pretty quite so far this season with not a lot of race miles in his legs. In fact, he has not raced in a month since finishing the Tour of Oman as he is working to a carefully planned training regime to get him fit for the Ardennes classics and the Giro. He has been training a lot on Mount Teide so should be in good shape for these climbs. The gradients play in to his hands too as they are not to steep and he should be able to stay with the main GC guys on most stages, and given his finishing ability he should be a real danger for stage victories. Whether he can stay with Froome and Contador on Stage 4 though is the question but he may well be a contender for the 3rd spot ahead of Quintana. WIth a team that includes Moreno and Caruso (both of whom are starting to show their form is coming) he should be well protected on the hills, we'll know after stage 4 if he is capable of winning this race.
Carlos Betancur may have won Paris-Nice but I don't think he was a very convincing or impressive winner. His team has admitted that he is 4kgs overweight and that will hinder him I think when things kick off on Stage 4. He is still clearly in good shape given how he won in PN but there were times as well he looked under pressure and if he rides like that in Catalunya he will be found out. It will be interesting to see who is the team leader because AG2R also have the little pocket rocket Domenico Pozzovivo in the race.
Pozzovivo will be there or thereabouts also but I think none of these climbs/finishes are steep enough for him to shake off the other GC men. In Roma Maxima he excelled on the really steep slopes to ride away from Valverde, but there are no climbs like this here, but longer less steep drags. Climbs that saw him finish a little back from the leaders in similar stages in San Luis and Tirreno, and I can see something similar happening here - he may not be able to respond to the final attacks from the GC favourites, once Team Sky and Katusha and Saxo have finished drilling it for mile after mile. A top 10 for sure, a top 5 is also likely but maybe not a top 3.
Rigoberto Uran could be a really interesting one. He rode well in Oman, finishing just behind Van Garderen and just over 30" behind Froome to seal 3rd place in the overall GC, but has been riding as a super-domestique of late for Kwiatkowski in both the Strade Bianche and Tirreno but he is the designated team leader for sure for OPQS in this race but you have to say it's a pretty weak team he has with him and that may cost him when the pace heats up. Only Thomas de Gendt could be classed as a top class rider in his team.
Dan Martin may be the reigning champ and will be in his territory, but I honestly can't see him getting in to the top 3. He caught the big guns a little unawares last year and although he won it brilliantly with a storming solo win, you can't see something like that happening again this year. He is the 4th favourite around 25/1 but I am not going to be backing him.
Outsiders? Chris Horner (80/1), Dani Moreno (50/1), Fuglsang (66/1) all are good riders but I am not interested in backing them. Tejay Van Garderen is an interesting one at 80/1 though, he got closest to Froome in Oman but it will take an exceptional performance from the American BMC rider to get on to this podium.
Contador is the favourite at best price 3/1 with Paddy Power (7/4 with BetVictor !) and I think he has a really solid chance of winning. I prefer him over Froome who is between 3/1 and 4/1 for the reasons I gave above - he is in superb form and will be full of confidence and belief following Tirreno. He seemed very comfortable on the climbs and he has that kick that could take him away from Froome if he is not at 100% and on to stage victory. It will be important to know if he has recovered fully after his efforts but he has a good week off and I think he should be ready to go. There is also the possibility of Contador attacking Froome on the descents as he is an excellent descender and may look to put him under pressure in unusual ways.
Froome will be a major danger of course, but at the prices I am willing to take him on with the doubts about the wellbeing of both his back injury and the Sky camp at the moment. He has Richie Porte in support but he hasn't exactly been firing on all cylinders lately either has he.
Joaquin Rodriguez interests me a lot though at 9/2 with Bet365. He has been off the radar but apparently training hard and should be ready for this. He will love this course (won here in 2010) and should be able to hang in there on the climbs and attack at the finish to gain some time and some bonus seconds. I think he is a very strong shout for a top 3 placing and have backed him each-way and another bet to win on top.
Rigoberto Uran could be a decent outsider too at 25/1 if you want to go against the top 3 in the betting. I am not interested in backing Quintana for now at just 6/1.
Reccomendations:
Alberto Contador - 3pt win at 3/1 with Paddy Power
Joaquin Rodriguez - 1pt each-way and 1pt win at 9/2 with Bet365
