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Published on Wednesday, 25 May 2016 00:32

Giro d'Italia St 18

Muggio to Pinerolo

Thursday 26th May, 240kms 

The fourth last day sees them tackle the longest stage of the race at 240kms and it's almost a mirror image of stage 17 with an opening flat 175kms followed by a lumpy finish with the climb of the Pramartino and a tricky hill in the finishing town that is almost imperceptible on the profile.

What can you say about today's stage other than SHIT. 250/1 Roger Kluge won the stage, so not even with all the decent sprinters out of the way and Modolo sprinting with his head up his ass can Nizzolo win a stage. Modolo backers were left out of pocket, even those that managed to get on e/w, as he conspired to finish 4th, not even able to beat Nik Arndt in the sprint. He came to the front way to soon, was starting his sprint with about 300m to go, but soon decided it was a stupid idea and swung off to the right. This saw him lose several places and get boxed in, so had to start his sprint again and couldn't get up to the top 3. Or was he stalling and trying to block when he saw Kluge as he knew that it would take away the big points from Nizzolo? Either way, it was terrible from Lampre and Modolo.

As for Nizzolo? Well his backers at short prices got burnt too, he has now finished something like 9 times in 2nd place in the Giro, Will he ever win a stage? Well with so many points collected today (he beat Ulissi twice in intermediate sprints), then it looks like he is home and dry in the points competition at least. None of the match bets landed either, end result was the worst day of the Giro with nothing winning. Very disappointing, but we fight again tomorrow.

One thing I have just noticed though is that it looks like Paddy Power screwed up last night with their matchbets and some were for today's stage 17 and some were for tomorrow's stage 18 - the Ulissi over Visconti matchbet is still unsettled and the date of the event is set at the 26th, so it looks like we'll get another bite at it tomorrow. 

The Route

The route and stage is going to be dead boring for the first 3 1/2 hours or so and in fact it looks like a stage that is probably only worth watching for the last hour or so. The first 170kms or so are more or less dead flat as they head west towards the Alps, with the only obstacles really being the street furniture and urban obstacles as they pass through towns like Crescentino and Chivasso. 

There are two intermediate sprints along the way before it gets lumpy at the finish, and as the finish looks too tough for Nizzolo to me, three is a possibility that he and/or Modolo try to infiltrate the break to take the points before rolling in to the finish. The route starts to get a bit interesting with 175kms to go when they go over a little lump at the Colletta Di Cumiana, but it probably won't have much impact, bar maybe shaking out a few weaker hands. With 28kms to go they enter the finishing town of Pinerolo, go through the finishing line and start off on a loop to the north of the town.

As they leave the town though they have to tackle the climb of San Maurizio, a taster of what they have to get over with just 2kms to go next time around. This time they approach it from the right, next time they come in to the same junction from the left. The climb is only 500m long, but it's going to be nasty - it's like a short Mur de Huy, but with 'cobbled' paving slabs.

You can see the route they take in the 'Finish' tab below and you can see the climb on the right.. It starts easy enough for the first 100m, but as they take the sharp left at the bottom of the climb it suddenly kicks up hard to 12%, then 20%! 300m at an average of 16.4% are followed by a final 200m at 12.6%.. 

They head out of the town on the loop and with 25kms to go they hit the Cat 2 climb of the Pramartino. It's not a very long climb at just 4.6kms, but it averages 10.5%. The opening kilometre actually is a little easier, averaging 8.7%, but from then on it is over 10% afor the rest, hitting a max of 17% and with the final kilometre averaging 11.2%. From the top there is only 20kms left to go, 10kms of which are descending back in to the town. 

With 2,500m to go they hit that junction at the bottom of the San Maurizio climb again from the left side, and tackle the wall once more. This time, there's just 2kms to go once over the top so it will be full gas in to the last left and right hand bend before they start the climb. There's a couple of twisty bends on the very steep descent, but once they hit the 1km to go mark the road flattens out and the road is straight, bar one sharp right-angle bend with 400m to go that takes them on to the finishing straight. 

Contenders

Paddy Power came out with their prices for this stage on Tuesday night, an admirable move, meaning I could get a head start on trying to write this! The only problem is their prices are a disgrace, rider after rider are half the prices they are with Bet365 and others. 

They made Diego Ulissi favourite for the stage at just 7/1, but you can see why - the finish will suit him, he has been climbing so well that he should have no trouble getting over the climbs at the end of the stage and he is chasing the points jersey. He has been superb in this race, with two stage wins and 4th on Tuesday in the wild stage to Brixen-Andalo. He was right there with the main GC men right up until the last few kilometres, taking several big pulls along the way too to help them stay away. He sits in 22nd in the GC and 2nd in the points competition behind Nizzolo, with a real chance of stealing it off him over the coming days. Lampre should have 2 or 3 guys like Mohoric, Koshevoy, Petilli and maybe Modolo to put him in the right position starting the final climb, and if he is near the front he can explode away on the climb and possibly on to victory. He has since been cut to 11/2 with PP but he is available now at 7/1 with Bet365.

Second favourite is Alejandro Valverde and of course he has a big chance on this stage - he is in top form now and in great spirits after his stage win on Tuesday. He seems to be climbing very well and is looking very confident. The finale should suit him perfectly and is sure to be right at the front coming in to and over the top of the San Maurizio. He's an excellent descender as well, so if he and a few other guys get a small gap, he will be very hard to beat in the sprint at the end of it. Gio Visconti, Amador, Betancur  and Sutherland can take him to the hill, he will do the rest. He's 12/1 with Skybet but only 9/1 with PP. It may be though that he doesn't want to over-stretch himself with the big two days to come. 

Betancur and Visconti could have chances in their own right, Betancur finished dead last on Tuesday's stage, almost missing the time limit, but was there something wrong with him, or has he his eye on this stage finish and was saving his legs/throwing bluffs? Betancur of old would have loved this finish, the sharp climb for 500m would have seen him flying off the front. But I wanted double the 40/1 he was available at with PP, and sure enough, Bet365 are double that at 80/1. I might have a tiny bet just in case he has been saving himself for this and surprises on the final climb while they all watch Valverde and Visconti. Visconti also could possibly attack on the penulltimate climb in an effort to shake things up and make the others do the chasing, if he gets a gap and the rest look at each other, he might just stay away. He's too short at just 16/1 though. 

I gave Tim Wellens a go on Tuesday, he was never given a chance given how the stage panned out, but I think this finish is too tough for him and is a no bet at just 18/1. Also at 18/1 is Gianluca Brambilla and he has been quieter since his stage win on stage 8. I think if he's to win he has to go early, either in the break and hope it makes it, or to attack on the Pramartino and solo to the finish or go with a small group he can outsprint. Matteo Busato could also be involved, but he's just 33/1 now, he should be 50/1+ I think. 

Forget Nibali I think, he has shown this week he can't handle the steep stuff at the moment, he says that he just doesn't know what's wrong with him.. Nico Roche is too short also at 18/1 I think, he doesn't usually like the really steep slopes, but he did well on stage 2 of the Vuelta last year to Caminito Del Rey when he finished 4th behind Chaves and Dumoulin. Bob Jungels could be too heavy and slow on a slope of 16% plus, he might be fighting to hang on. Sonny Colbrelli has a good chance I think though on this finish, he is very punchy and can sprint well against a small group. He should be able to just hang in there over the Pramartino and should be able to cope with the steep gradients for 450m, and at 22/1 he could be one to consider for sure. You may even get bigger from some of the other bookies when they open. . 

Steven Kruijswijk has been very strong all race but I think that this finish doesn't suit him very well, although if Valverde attacks he will be right on his wheel. He can just sit in and save energy for the weekend though, even if he loses a few seconds to Valverde I don't think he'll be too bothered. If he comes to the finish with the likes of Valverde though he won't win the sprint. I don't think this suits Ilnur Zakarin perfectly either but he might give it a right go to try to climb above Nibali. It might be a good finish for Sergei Firsanov to show that his good TT, and chase down of Zakarin with Nibali was a sign that his form is coming good.

Jo Dombrowski - I mentioned at the start of the race that my info from Cannondale was he was putting out huge numbers on the hills but his problem is staying in on the flat sometimes. Well that manifested itself on stage 16 when he got dropped by the GC guys on the flat part between the final two climbs (or was he ordered back to support a flailing Uran?!). As long as he can avoid getting dropped on the flat parts running up to the final punch up the San Maurizio, then he might have a chance to go on the attack, he's light and punchy. I'm hoping he doesn't again though as I have been waiting the whole Giro to back him this weekend!

Esteban Chaves we know likes the steeper slopes, he absolutely flies up them. When the road got really steep on stage 16 we saw him eat in to the deficit to the Zakarin group, but drop back again when they were able to keep constant high power on the slightly easier slopes. In stage 2 of the Vuelta last year he exploded away from the bunch on the 15% slopes of the climb to Caminito Del Rey on stage 2 to land me my biggest odds winner ever at 200/1! He has a stage win to his name, but will be very disappointed with the time loss on stage 16, this might be an opportunity for him to steal back 20-30" and the win time bonus. Once over the top it's just 2kms to the finish, only 1km of which is on the flat, he could hold off most guys over that distance, especially as we have seen he is descending really well. At 50/1 he's worth keeping onside in case. 

Stefano Pirazzi has been very quiet in this race, unlike him, so maybe he could try something on this finish? Davide Formolo likewise, big things were expected of him in this race, but he has really disappointed, maybe he could have a go while they are all watching Uran and Dombrowski (Uran hasn't a chance, by the way, with the way he's riding). Damiano Cunego, Mikel Nieve, David Lopez, they could all have a chance on this finish, but I'm not sure they'll be winning. 

Of course the break too has a chance. It will be hard with such a long flat run in, the teams of guys who will fancy this finish will keep the pace honest and with a tough run in like this for the last 30kms, the break will be pretty tired after the longest day in the saddle. Of the breakaway guys, probably better to look at really strong puncheurs who would be strong enough at the finish to negotiate those tricky hills. Guys like Adam Hansen (just 40/1 though), Stefan Kung, Pim Ligthart, Pieter Serry, Simon Clarke, Rein Taaramae, Stefan Denifl, Matteo Montaguti, Daniel Oss (could he try again??), Lars Bak (strong attacks late today) or Manuele Boaro. 

I think though that the break has a slim chance of making it and we will see a scene rather like the Flech-Wallone where they crest the Mur on a dry run before coming back again to tackle it at the finish. It will have the same late attacks in the run to it by the likes of Wellens, and we'll see about 50 guys trying to squeeze in to that left hand turn at the bottom of the climb. Movistar should be mob-handed at the front and could have 3-4 guys who could take a flyer here. Sky could have several riders near the front too and Lampre and Cannondale, so it will be a real dog-fight up the final hill. It's not a day to go mad with the stakes though, anything could happen today

Recommendations:

1pt win on Sonny Colbrelli at 22/1 with Skybet

0.3pts each-way on Carlos Betancur at 80/1 with Bet365 

0.4pts each-way on Esteban Chaves at 50/1 with Bet365

Matchbets

As I mentioned above, the matchbet double from today is still on as PP had set the Ulissi to beat Visconti matchbet to tomorrow's date and it is not settled. So we will be cheering for Ulissi too tomorrow. 

No other matchbets for now, too many are too close with Bet365 and PP seem to only have Roche Vs Bambilla, Ladbrokes have nothing out yet.