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Published on Saturday, 14 May 2016 00:04

Giro d'Italia St 9

Radda to Greve in Chianti 

Sunday 15th May, 40.5kms

After eight stages of shadow boxing and a lots of funs for the sprinter types, things get real serious now with this long time trial through the hills and vineyards of the Chianti region. There's hardly a flat kilometre of road for the 40.5kms of the route, and we should see some sizeable gaps start to open between the main GC contenders.

What a great day today - the little hero Brambilla landed a right touch for us at 28/1, even if it was not in the manner I expected! Two Etixx men got in the strong break of the day, I had both of them with Trentin at 100/1 and Brambilla - I was dreaming of another 1-2.. The break worked brilliantly together, and as the kilometres passed and the lead stayed up around 5 minutes I was getting very excited, it was most definitely on.

And what a brilliant ride - De Marchi attacked, getting those who took the stupid price of 12/1 a little excited, but it didn't last long and Brambi shot past him and Montaguti and accelerated away. Montaguti rewarded his 100/1 backers by landing an equally impressive 2nd place and Moreno Moser rewarded those who had piled in to him at short odds by landing the e/w place money at 12/1.

The big news of the day though was the capitulation of Tom Dumoulin, he lost a stack of time as he crumbled on the stone roads. Brambilla jumped in to pink, and a continually impressive Zakarin moves in to 2nd place, and is now as short as 4/1 with Will Hill, 5/1 general. Nibali and Valverde looked frisky, Chaves continues to impress me, he was very good today, and Majka, Uran and Kruijswijk are all still most definitely in with a shout.   

The disappointment of the day was Cancellara I think, he rolled in 18 minutes down in the autobus, but he may well have been saving himself for tomorrow. Brambilla also landed that juicy h2h over Jungels at 13/8, but unfortunately even though Cunego finished way down in 80th place, Wellens had a shocker today and finished in 164th. Brambilla's win blew the winning margin bet, but overall it was a really good day, adding 23.87pts to yesterday's 9.7pts to bring it to +33.75pts in two days. I think I might stop now and clear a nice profit ;-)

This is the second of three time trials in the race, and if any of the GC hopefuls plan on winning the race they will need to be on a good day today. The lesser climbers will need to put time in to their lighter, sprightlier rivals and the climbers will need to go well so as to not lose too much valuable time to their big rivals. The 3rd TT in the race is on stage 15, a 10.8km uphill time trial, so if the time trialists are going to give themselves a chance then it has to be today. There's plenty of easy drags of 2-3% and lots of flat and descending roads for the really strong men to really get the power down and make a big difference compared to the lighter, smaller guys. 

Dumoulin has to make up for his 'jour sans' today and could still jump back in to pink tomorrow with a good TT - he is still only 1'05" down on Brambilla, but Zakarin could be a big danger now with him having a 42" lead on Dumoulin.

The Route

The stage starts with 1km downhill, then the hills start - then it drags for 4.7kms at an average of just 2.5% so it's a real power stretch rather than being one for the pure climbers. The road then undulates and rolls along and after 11.6km they pass the first intermediate time check at Castellina in Chianti. The road rolls and rises for another few kilometres before descending for 10kms, passing through the next time check at Madonna di Pietracupa after 22.3kms where the road narrows quite a bit for 4kms. 

Next they climb the short hill to Sicella and after a 3km descent they start on the climb to Panzano in Chianti, a 4.9km drag at an average of 3.7%. From the top, where the 3rd time check is, there are just 6.8kms left to go, all of which, bar the last 500m are descending. There's a hair-pin turn with 150m to go and then a straight run to the line. 

Contenders and Favourites

This is a tough course that will test all of the riders, some a lot more than others. It requires you to be good in all sorts of disciplines on a TT bike - climbing, descending fast and powering along undulating roads. After 1km of descending, they are climbing already, dragging on for almost 5kms. With 14.5kms gone they have to descend for almost 10kms and then over the next 10kms go over two climbs, the second of which, the Panzano in Chianti is tough, dragging on for nearly 5kms at around 3.8%.

Then a final descent down to Ponte for 3kms before a flatter run in to the line for the last 4kms. It won't suit the pure TT specialists completely as they have to climb and descend. It won't suit the climbers too much as they will have to descend and try to put the power down on tough, rolling roads. 

The first TT in Holland may have been over only 10kms, but did it tell us anything? Sure it did.. It showed us that an ill Fabian Cancellara was still better than 190 of the guys that started the TT! It became pretty clear in the days that followed that he was very weak and was suffering quite badly as he was dropped on every stage after that. It looked like he might be getting a bit stronger on stage 3 as he was able to hang in until the final circuit, and then on stage 7 he suddenly appeared at the front in the closing kilometres pulling Nizzolo in to position and looked much better.

But then he was interviewed by Laura Meseguer before today's stage and he said that he had been very ill, had suffered badly when ill on a tough start to the race, and hasn't fully recovered.. he said he was going to be watching the GC battle from off the back, and indeed he was true to his word as he rolled in 18 mins down in the Autobus. It's hard to know what to make of him for tomorrow, I don't think he is anywhere near 100% yet and the course doesn't look like it suits him perfectly either.

I think he is a terrible price at 3/1, but he may well have been sandbagging it today and could blast it tomorrow, even when he was at the height of his sickness he beat 190 of the 197 other riders here. But 40kms is far harder than 10kms and I am not sure he'll be in the top 3. 

Tom Dumoulin of course did the business in the end, but only just! A winning margin of something like 0.02 seconds was all he won by, and a cynic would say that the timer made sure that it stopped on the right side to give the home fans a Giro to remember... He had been riding so well up until today, taking the pink and hanging on to it, but boy did he crack badly today. He opened in the betting at 4/5 tonight but has now drifted out to 5/4, looks like he is friendless in the opening moves. Before today I'd have said he was a max bet at 5/4, but he had to go deep today and he was being passed by just so many riders. I'm going to hold off on backing him for a while, the weather is for thunderstorms and it could be tricky late on for Dumoulin. If it looks like he might get a clear run I might back him.

I'm going to carry on down the results of the first TT to see what chances the TTers who showed form will have here. Primus Roglic - sounds like a transformer, rode like a machine to almost win in stunning fashion. He was so unfancied for the stage he wasn't even quoted by a SINGLE bookmaker. Funnily enough I know a pro who said to me that night though 'You won't believe me but I had him in my fantasy team but took him out! I know him from Girona.." So some clearly knew he had talent. But then he crashed on stage 3 and slipped down the GC in a flash. He's only 28/1 for this TT tomorrow and I think some are getting a bit carried away with his first result, he doesn't really have anything else in his Palmares to show me he will top 3 it in a TT like this one. 

Andrey Amador - he gave me a nice surprise with his 3rd place in the TT, it was a sensational ride from the Movistar man that shot him in to 3rd place. He rode very well today to finish in 14th with the Valverde group. He has only ever finished in the top 6 of an ITT 4 times in his career though, so I think I'll leave him tomorrow. 

Moreno Moser rode brilliantly as well in the opening TT, finishing 6th and followed that up today with a superb 3rd place. He will like a course like this, he finished 2nd in the Italian TT championships last year over 36kms, and looks to be in good form, yet, he's available at 200/1!

Bob Jungels suffered today but still managed 20th, finishing with Ulissi and Fuglsang, but tomorrow is much more up his street - he will like the terrain and the distance and will be able to get the power down. But he's had a tough first week for a young guy, could it have an effect on him tomorrow? Possibly.. but he's so strong, he could well be up there, but I'm reluctant to back him at just 9/1.

Stefan Kung I like a lot though - looking at the results, it didn't look like a great opening TT for him, finishing in 30th place, but of course he had smashed in to the barriers along the way, when he had posted something like the 5th fastest intermediate time. The U23 World's TT he won was over 27kms of a lumpy course in Nyon and he showed on stage 7 with his attack that the legs are good, it took the peloton a long time to pull him back in. He opened at 14s with PP and I took that, he is still 11/1 with them and I think that's still a good e/w bet.  

Tobias Ludvigsson, Jos Van Emden, Steven Kruijswijk - they should all go well too, but what about the GC favourites? Well there's a second battle going on here in this TT.. To see who loses the least amount of time to their rivals over this tough 40km course. Nibali should go well, he'll like the parcours and is looking strong. Valverede is also looking good, but I am not sure he'll be hitting a podium spot here tomorrow. Ilnur Zakarin is another I like, I think he may not win tomorrow, but he could do enough to be in pink tomorrow night, a bet that is 5/6 with Paddy Power. 

Rigo Uran would have been one of the favourites for this a few years ago, and has indeed won a TT like this in the Giro before. He is also looking strong too and he could be a good outsider here, but his performance in the first TT was a bit disappointing to me, but he will have his supporters at 30/1 with William Hill. An outsider at a big price? How about Brambilla - he has pink on his shoulders and will be last man off, he might be inspired, but the overwhelming emotions of today might get the better of him. 

I will probably end up backing Dumoulin in play, or if he hits around 2/1 on Betfair, but I like Kung and Zakarin each-way, I'm going against Cancellara and may even lay him for a top 3 placing. 

Recommendations: 

1pt each-way on Stefan Kung at 11/1 with Paddy Power

0.5pts each-way on Ilnur Zakarin at 18/1 with Paddy Power

2pts on Zakarin to be in pink tomorrow night at 5/6 with PP

Recommendations:

Kung to beat Ludviggson, Dumoulin to beat Jungels, Zakarin to beat Uran, Majka to beat Pozzovivo and Cancellara to beat Roglic - 2pts on the five-fold at 10/3

Amador to beat Kangert - 2pts at 5/6

Svitsov to beat Hesjedal - 3pts at 8/11