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Published on Tuesday, 21 March 2017 00:13

Dwars door Vlaanderen

Wed 22nd March, 203kms

A mid-week Belgian race with a quality field.. more work to be done! Between this, Catalunya and trying to prepare for E3 and Gent-Wevelgem later in the week, this is going to be a crazy busy week and something might have to give.. it's trying to decide which one to give less love to is the difficult part!

This race was won last year by Bryan Coquard.. well at least he thought he had won the sprint, and lifted his hands in celebration, only to suddenly realise that Jens Debusschere had mugged him on the line for the win. It ended in a frantic bunch sprint last year with Edward Theuns taking 3rd and Fernando Gaviria looked to be heading for a big result, but faded in the last 100m and was shuffled back to 10th.

It was a good race, raced in good, sunny conditions, but raced in the shadow of the terrorist attack in Belgium that occured only the day before. Kenneth Van Melsen was a lone attacker for most of the day but was eventually reeled in with about 18kms to go. With 9kms to go Greg Van Avermaet took off like a rocket from the front of the peloton and Nikolas Maes couldn't catch him.. He led the race by around 10-12" for the next 7kms or so, but with just 250m to go he was swallowed up, in the shadow of the winning line. Gaviria went too soon in to the head-wind, Coquard thought he had it won, Debusschere pounced late to break his heart.

Niki Terpstra missed out in 2015 in his attempt to win this race for the third time in four years when on a wet and muddy day, Etixx's leader played team-man and backed off when Kwaitkowski went up the road, but man-of-the-moment Kwiat couldn't stop TopSport Vlaanderen landing their best result in many a race with a 1-2 thanks to Jelle Wallays and Edward Theuns. 

It's not a race that often ends in a sprint though, despite it ending that way last year, it was back in 2011 with Nick Nuyens the last time it ended in a large bunch gallop. In between it was solo wins or small bunch sprints that took the honours, so it's impossible to tell what kind of finish we will get from one year to another. 

The race was first run in 1945 under the name Dwars Door Belgie and from 1946, for twenty years, the race was run as a two-day race before reverting back to a one day race in 1965. It's relatively short at 200kms (Gent-Wevelgem is 243km) but it has plenty of challenges to make it an exciting introduction to the Flanders Classics. It takes in a lot of the roads and cobbled climbs used in the Tour of Flanders, including the Oude Kwaremont and the Paterberg and gives Flanders hopefuls a good training spin, and for others it gives them a real shot at a great result in a Belgian cobbled Classic. 

The big change for the event this year is it's elevation to World Tour status, and as a result it's a very high quality lineup we have this year, with reigning champion Jens Debusschere, runner-up Bryan Coquard, Michael Matthews, Sonny Colbrelli, Sam Bennett, Arnaud Demare, Sep Vanmarcke, Fernando Gaviria, Tiesj Benoot, Edward Theuns and three-time winner Niki Terpstra. It's a formidable lineup with a gaggle of sprinters and Classics men ready to do battle over the hellingen and cobbles of Flanders. 

It's a zig-zag route around Flanders, a little like the Ronde Van Vlaanderen, starting in Roeselare and taking in familiar spots like Oudenaarde, Ronse, Kwaremont and Paterberg before finishing in Waregem. They have 12 hellingen to get over, including the well-used Leberg, Berendries, Valkenberg, Taaienberg, Oude Kwaremont, Paterberg, and with just 9kms to go the Nokereberg which often sees decisive moves go.

There is one change to the route from last year though with the addition of a cobbled section, the Herlegemstraat just 6kms from the finish. Although it's only 800m, a split in the group could be forced, a split that may not be closed up with just 6kms to go. It could also see some unfortunate soul lose his chance with a puncture or an incident. The sprint finish in Waregem has a sharp left turn with just over 300m to go, but it's straight to the line then on a pretty wide road. 

Weather Forecast

The weather forecast is good - fresh, around 13-14° maximum with no rain forecast, but there will be wind out on the course. It's going to be a south-south-easterly of around 13-14mph, which doesn't sound like a lot, but it could help cause splits and echelons on the more exposed parts. It will be a head-wind for most of the way south from Roeselare, then a cross-wind as it starts to get busy around Ronse. It will be a head-wind up the Kwaremont, which could affect things on the more exposed parts at the top of the climb, but then it's a tail-wind for most of the way back towards Waregem for the finish which will help any breaks chances of staying away. . 

Contenders

I had started writing this preview on Sunday, when Peter Sagan was on ProCyclingStats' unofficial startlist, and basically centred my whole preview around him and how pivotal he was to how this race was going to go. That he could blow the whole race apart whenever he wanted to - he could start on the Taaienberg, which has proven to be decisive in so many races, and there are only 53kms left at that point so the pace will be furious. Or, if that doesn't work, there's only 32kms from the top of the Paterberg to the finish and that's where he left everyone else behind in the Tour of Flanders last year after softening up the field first on the Kwaremont.

And if he can't get away there, he could try on the Nokereberg with just 9kms to go! Either way, I don't think he will want to go to the finish with this quality lineup of sprinters, he will look to do it his way I think. And if he didn't manage to get away, either solo or with a small group, they can always fall back on Sam Bennett for the sprint as he will have had an armchair ride as other teams bust their balls trying to chase down Sagan.

So then with no Sagan in the lineup I had to change things! Who can do that sort of thing instead? Well, Niki Terpstra, Tiesj Benoot and Sep Vanmarcke are your likely lads, they are the kind of guys who would have been trying to stay with or chase after Sagan, and are very familiar and experienced around these roads. Terpstra has had a pretty tame start to the year though and was well off the pace in Omloop, finishing in 51st, so I'm going to pass over him, even if he's a three-times winner.

Tiesj Benoot may not exactly fit the description of 'experienced' in terms of pro races around here, but he grew up on these roads and he showed in KBK just how strong he is to bridge to Sagan's move with Rowe. As I said, he knows these roads well and I think he could be one to light it up in the absence of Sagan around the Taaienberg and the Kwaremont. He crashed out of Omloop though just when it was getting serious though, he'll be hoping for better luck this time. One for the shortlist for sure.

And Sep Vanmarcke deliverd the 16/1 each-way for us in Omloop with a fine 3rd placing, but he was no match for Sagan or GVA in the sprint finish, he is capable of lighting it up on the Taaienberg or the Kwaremont or even try to go solo on the Nokereberg or the final paved section in order to avoid a sprint finish.

Zdenek Stybar, Jurgen Roelandts and Oliver Naesen are three more who could be involved in the breaks that might prevent this being a sprint finish. Zdenek Stybar went well in Strade Bianche to finish 4th, and he was going well in KBK but missed the key move with Sagan. Jurgen Roelandts has been going well this year too and can be the foil to play from an attack point of view to let Debusschere take it easy in the peloton to save himself for the sprint. And Oliver Naesen always goes well on these home roads, he took 7th in Omloop and 8th in KBK, maybe it's time he stepped on to a podium step in a big race like this.

But if it does come down to a sprint finish, we have plenty of sprinters here and the bookies have centred the betting around it being a sprint finish. Favourite for the race is Fernando Gaviria and it's a tricky one with him. Despite his crash the day before MSR and bandaged wrist he still rode very well and was right in the mix entering the Poggio. He made a lovely move at one point to move up the outside and join Boonen, Alaphilippe and Gilbert at the front, it was powerful and effortless.But his hands were tied when Sagan went and Alaphilippe chased, Quick-Step were now not going to chase down Alaphilippe.

He is probably the fastest sprinter here, he was my pick for MSR and I was sure he was going to go very close to winning it, but the crash worried me so much I traded out of about half my stake on him for a small profit the day before. It didn't seem to bother him too much as he sprinted in the finale to 5th place, or 2nd in the sprint behind Kristoff. This is a different ball-game altogether though and 200kms with lots of brutal cobbles and hellingen has me worried - that's a lot of punishment if his wrist isn't 100%. It's put me off backing him until another day I think. Quick-Step have other options of course with Zdenek Stybar, Philippe Gilbert, Yves Lampaert and Iljo Keisse, and any one of them could be involved if the race starts to blow apart. 

Although there is no Sagan, Bora have another card to play in Sam Bennett who worked so hard for Sagan on Sunday, despite feeling so bad before the race he almost didn't start. He got better as the race went on though and was still there on the Poggio until Sagan blew it up. If he can reproduce the turn of speed he showed in Paris Nice to win his stage ahead of some of the best sprinters he could well take this race. If he can be on FDJ's or Quick-Step's wheel in the last kilometre they can guide him through that last left-hander and in to the last 250m in a prime position to strike. He's getting better on the cobbles and went well in KBK in the pack, only to be shackled by the fact Sagan was up the road. 

Jens Debusschere has to come in to the reckoning too after his fine win last year in a race that means so much to him - as he said this week "Racing through Flanders is a very special event for me. The race starts in Roeselare, my birthplace and arrives in Waregem a few meters from my current home. I was the best last year, it makes it even more special."

Debusschere also revealed his thoughts and the team's plans for the race when he added "It is up to our strong men like Tiesj Benoot and Jürgen Roelandts to follow the early attacks, or at least to try. Quick-Step Floors will also start with a strong team. This will be a fierce struggle. I think the race will explode in the Taaienberg, as every year. Now that the competition is so strong, it will be as difficult as during the Tour of Flanders. The selection will start already in the Kattenberg, after 110 kilometers, but if you find yourself too far at the foot of the Taaienberg, the race is over. We have lots of options for this race with De Buyst, Gallopin, Maes, Sieberg and Tiesj, but if I am still at the front after the last Pavé section, I will sprint."

Arnaud Démare took 6th in KBK, a fine stage win in Paris Nice and 6th again in Milan Sanremo on Sunday, he's in good form and will be at the front of this race coming in to a sprint you'd expect. He's got a good shout at a top 6 again in this race if everything goes his way, maybe even a top 3. His compatriot Bryan Coquard has amends to make after his premature celebration last year, but he showed that he has the ability to win this race, one more pedal stroke or a lunge at the line would have won it for him. Since his win in Andalucia a month ago though he hasn't had the best of times though and I've a feeling he'll be outside the top 6 here this year.

Dylan Groenewegen is another with a chance in the sprint though, he has been going ok this year, but his 25th in OHN and 18th in KBK were disappointing as more was expected of him. He has Lars Boom here with him but the rest of the team is pretty weak, some of the stronger guys he could do with are in Catalunya, so he might well be on his own come the last 5kms.

Michael Matthews looked to be going well in MSR as Sunweb sent Tom Dumoulin's chin to the front of the peloton on the Poggio and he towed the Skytrain and Peter Sagan in to position for the race-deciding attack. In the end, Matthews was left behind like all the other sprinters, but in the end he could only manage 9th in the sprint, or 12th overall, I don't think he is quite sharp enough yet. Sonny Colbrelli could be another outsider, but he will be on his own in the last kilometres, that is if he's managed to hang in there over the Kwaremont and the Paterberg.

Orica-Scott are reportedly all-in for Caleb Ewan tomorrow, and if so, the 18/1 on him might look big in hind-sight. But I worry about his ability to last over the Taaienberg, Kwaremont and Paterberg with the leaders and so am not going to factor him in to my shortlist. 

Others that could get involved? Timothy Dupont of Verandas, but he has DNF'ed in 4 of his last starts, although his last start resulted in 8th pace in the Handzame Classic, but 8th in that field is no way good enough form to suggest he'll be breaking in to the top 3 here. Edward Theuns, Roy Jans, Dimitri Claeys, Baptiste Planckaert and Florian Senechal are others who should be up near the front hitting the last 30kms, they would be long-shots though to take anything out of this race unless there is an accident that causes a split that takes a lot of the favourites out of it.

I'm not convinced about most of the sprinters, Arnaud Démare is about the only one I'm tempted by. I think Bennett might keep his powder dry until Gent Wevelgem as he wasn't 100% before MSR and I'm worried about Ewan's chances on the Hellingen and Gaviria's wrist. Instead I'm going to go against the sprinters with Sep Vanmarcke and Tiesj Benoot - I think they will split things up on the Taaienberg, again on the Kwaremont/Paterberg and may even attack anyone who is left with them after that on the Nokereberg or the last pavé section. At 25/1 for both they will do me for an interest, with a small saver on Démare with Ladbrokes at 8/1 who are paying 4 places.  

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Sep Vanmarcke at 25/1 with Ladbrokes paying 4 places

0.5pts each-way on Tiesj Benoot at 25/1 with Paddy Power

0.5pts each-way on Arnaud Démare at 8/1 with Ladbrokes paying 4 places

Match Bets

Oscar Gatto to beat Breschel - 2pts at 5/6

Matthews to beat Colbrelli and Groenewegen to beat Coquard - 2pts at 13/8

This season I am also going to be naming my top ten riders to watch in some races, for the many of you out there that like playing Fantasy Cycling games such as the Zweeler where you can play for cash prizes.

Here's my ten to watch for Dwars Door Vlaanderen

1 Sep Vanmarcke

2 Niki Terpstra

3 Arnaud Demare

4 Teisj Benoot

5 Sam Bennett

6 Oliver Naesen

7 Oscar Gatto

8 Jens Debusschere

9 Edward Theuns

10 Dylan Groenewegen

Sign up with Zweeler Fantasy Cycling games today to play the Dwars Door Vlaanderen Fantasy game, there are over €400 in prizes to be won. If you sign up here you can receive a 100% deposit bonus up to €100! Click here to read more.