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- Published on Wednesday, 13 April 2016 08:01
Amstel Gold Race
Maastricht to Berg en Terblijt
Sunday 17th April, 248.7kms
The 51st running of the Amstel Gold Race starts in Maastricht Sunday, kick-starting a week of top-class racing in the Ardennes, culminating in Liege-Bastogne-Liege on Sunday week. As always, there's a fantastic line-up battling it out for the honour of sipping a glass of Amstel on stage with ladies wearing beer-mat hats.
This is a relatively new race on the Classics calendar, first run in only 1966, but it is now the most important race in the Netherlands in the whole year. The history of how the race came about is just an amazing story, almost comical - this is from Wikipedia:
"The first race, on April 30, 1966, was organised by two Dutch sports promoters, Ton Vissers and Herman Krott, who together ran a company called Inter Sport.
Vissers was a house decorator and hockey player from Rotterdam whose break in cycling came in 1963 when a friend asked him to manage a minor team in the Tour of Holland. Those who were there say he was as hopeless as his riders. Officials banished him after he did a U-turn and drove back towards the oncoming race after hearing that one of his riders had punctured. Three years later, in 1966, he became manager of the Willem II professional team that at one time included the classics winner, Rik van Looy of Belgium.
Krott's background in cycling was scarcely deeper. He ran a car-parts dealership called HeKro and, because he admired the Dutch rider Peter Post, worked as his personal assistant. He had also worked as a salesman for Amstel. Together, Krott and Vissers organised small races across the Netherlands. Krott also used his contacts at Amstel to start an Amstel professional team and then the sponsorship to run an international professional race bigger than the round-the-houses events Inter Sport had been promoting until then.
Things started going wrong from the beginning. Krott and Vissers had announced the start, the finish and the distance without taking into account the many rivers and the zigzags needed to cross them. The course would be far longer than 280 km. Further plans were made to start in Utrecht, then in Rotterdam. The finish was moved from Maastricht to the unknown village of Meerssen. Less than three weeks before the start, the organisers realised they had not obtained permission to cross the Moerdijk bridge, the only way out of Rotterdam to the south. The route had again to be redrawn and the start moved to Breda in the south.
The problems had not ended. Whatever the police thought of the constant changes they were asked to approve, they now had bigger concerns. The Provos, militant hippies, had declared Holland a state of anarchy. At the other end of the social scale, Dutchmen were also protesting against the marriage of the queen's daughter, Beatrix, to a German, Claus von Amsberg. The police feared that a race organised on the royal family's big day would bring uprisings and possibly attacks.
On April 26, Vissers and Krott called off their race. But still there was a twist. A press conference to break the news had just started when the Dutch roads ministry in The Hague called to say the race could be run after all — provided it was never again scheduled for Koninginnedag"
The modern day race though is now one of the most looked-forward-to races of the season and a key part of the year for the Ardennes specialists. It kicks off the trilogy of races that also includes Fleche-Wallone on Wednesday and Liege-Bastogne-Liege on Sunday week. It's a tough course littered with 34 climbs that suits the puncheur types more than outright climbers and sprinters as a look at recent winners shows. There's over 4,000 metres of climbing in all, who said Holland was flat?!
Last year's race saw Gilbert and Matthews attack quite early on the Cauberg with 2.5kms to go and get a small gap, but Kwiatkowski and Costa came after them. By the top of the steeper part of the Cauberg Valverde and a small group including Dan Martin, Gallopin and Alaphilippe joined them to make a group of 17 which fought out the sprint finish. Matthews and Gilbert payed for their earlier exertions though and Kwiatkowski outsprinted them to his first win in the Rainbow Jersey.
Gilbert won it in 2014 with a powerhouse attack at the bottom of the Cauberg, attacking away from Simon Gerrans, Valverde and Kwiatkowski. He held it all the way to the line with indecision and fatigue holding the chasers back. Jelle Vanendert attacked out of the chasing group to take a commendable second.
Romain Kreuziger won in 2013 after an audacious attack from the remnants of the break he was in, just as the peloton were about to make the catch with 7km to go. Gilbert attacked on the Cauberg with Gerrans and Valverde in pursuit, but even though he rode his legs off they were swamped on the line and Gilbert ended up in 5th place. Valverde just hung on for 2nd from Gerrans.
The Route
The race starts in Maastricht and heads north crossing the river Maas and after just 9kms they hit the first climb of the day, the Sligerberg, but things start to get serious after 50kms when they hit the Sibbergrubbe (2.1kms at 3.6% avg) as it is followed just 5kms later by the first passage of the Cauberg, which is tackled a total of 4 times in all during the day.
The Cauberg plays a huge part in deciding the winner as its 800m distance averages 6.5% but hits a max of 12.8%. Once over the Cauberg they start out on the circuit and the hills come thick and fast - 16 hills over the next 110kms before they go back over the Cauberg for a second time. They hit the Wolfsberg, Loorberg, Schweibergerweg, Camerig, Drielandenpunt, Gemmenic, Vijlenerbos and Eperheide one after the other. The St. Remigiusstraat: Huls after 145.2km is one of the toughest - 900m at an average of 7.8% with a max of 10.7%.
Once more over the Cauberg and its out on to a second, shorter circuit. After the Geulhemmerberg (1,200 metres, 4.6%) comes the Bemelerberg (900 metres, 4.5%), then the Loorberg for the 2nd time (1500 metres, 5.3%) and the Gulpenerberg (600 metres, 5.7%).
Next up is the Eyserbosweg (900 metres, 9.3% with a max of 17%) which is regarded as the toughest climb of the day. Then the Fromberg (1,600 metres, 3.6%) and another tough one in the Keutenberg (1,200 metres, 5.9% hits a max of 22%!) and back over the Cauberg again.
The final circuit is shorter again but the pace will be really high at this stage. They tackle the Geulhemmerberg and the Bemelerberg again before one last time up the Cauberg. Like last year though the finish is not at the top of the Cauberg like it used to be, but instead is 1.8 kilometres after the top. This can allow the front of the race to come back together a little if the puncheurs have stretched things out from the bottom like last year and we could see 10-20 fighting out the finish again.
Route Map
Profile
The Hills of Amstel Gold
Contenders and Favourites
De Brabantse Pijl worked out pretty good on Wednesday for us, with Vakoc landing a brilliant win for me at 33/1, I hope some of you got on at the 16/1 he was available at in the morning. The matchbet treble also landed at 1.6/1 to make it a profit of 14pts on the day despite Michael Matthews losing. Vakoc was very impressive, but so too was Alaphilippe who worked his socks off for him, attacking repeatedly and pushing hard between the final two hills to held keep the gap between Gallopin, Gasparotto, Tanner and Vakoc and the chasing pack. As soon as they hit the Schavei, Vakic attacked hard and Gasparotto and Gallopin tried to catch him, but he was just too strong.
Behind, Michael Matthews was beaten in the sprint by Bryan Coquard, so we were unlucky too to not land the winner at 50/1, it was a great ride by Coquard, looked after very well by Thomas Voeckler. Matthews was left isolated at the finish as they had used up all their troops far too early, Daryl Impey strangely going on the attack earlier in the race, when he would have been better off waiting and looking after Matthws on that final climb.
Despite OGE's inability to control the race, and Michael Matthews inability to beat Coquard in the sprint, he is still favourite for this race but has been pushed out a little to 11/4 from 9/4. It was always going to be hard to control DBP though, I did warn that might be the case. They have added more firepower to the squad for Sunday with the addition of Simon Gerrans and Chris-Juul Jensen. I wouldn't get overly worried about him not being able to beat Coquard - sprinting for 4th and sprinting for 1st are two very different things and I think it would have been different if the break hadn't taken the podium spots.
The big question though is what happens with Simon Gerrans? I've said it lots of times before, but those two guys don't see eye to eye and they could both be legitimately team leaders in this race. This is reflected in the betting where Matthews is still favourite at 11/4 but Gerrans is 3rd favourite att just 13/2. And with OGE, as we've seen plenty of times in the past, what you get is not always what you expected when it comes to who goes for it.
You would think it will be all for Matthews as he has the better sprint and has come close here before, but Gerrans is the team captain and has often pulled rank on Matthews. It may well be that Gerro is allowed to try to probe and attack a little earlier, maybe to 'do a Gilbert' at the bottom of the Cauberg and stretch things out, allowing Matthews to sit in and not blow his chances like last year by chasing every attack. If he can hang on out front or take a few riders with him he has a chance of winning it. If it comes to a reduced sprint, then Matthews of course has a great chance of winning and I think that will be OGEs strategy on Sunday.. Matthews proved in DBP that he is strong enough to get to the top of the final climb right at the front of the peloton, he was unlucky again that the break stole the win ahead of him. He was beaten by Coquard though, which may, or may not be something to worry about as I said before..
Second favourite, sandwiched between the two OGE men is defending champion Michal Kwiatkowski at around 5/1 generally. Kwiatkowski may, on the face of it, have been a bit of a surprise last year with his win, but he was only 6/1 joint 3rd favourite. He has an excellent record in this race though and winning it wasn't that much of a surprise when you see that he was 5th in 2014, (he was right there with Valverde and Gerrans when Gilbert attacked, but couldn't go with him) and 4th in 2013, just pipped by Gerrans and Valverde in the sprint.
He has a very strong team with him here - Henao and Poels to look after him on the climbs, Swift, Golas and Kennaugh to try to drag him in to position or lead him up the Cauberg last time around. He proved in E3 Haralbeke he was in great form, but blew up badly on the Kwaremont last time up in the Ronde and faded out of contention. The cobbles of the Ronde are a very different matter to the roads of the Ardennes though and he is sure to be involved in the final skirmishes again.
Philippe Gilber
t is 'Mr Cauberg' having won this race three times and also of course winning the World Championships on this same finish in 2014. Gilbert has been in the news for the wrong reasons this week, with the 'altercation' with a supposed drunk driver now turning in to a potential prosecution for assault with illegal pepper spray. He did suffer fractures to his fingers in the incident though and posted a tweet Thursday saying he was passed fit and looking forward to it, and included a picture of the metal-work in his fingers. (right)
You can never write Gilbert off, but I'm going to I think! With everything going on with the posssible conviction and the fractures, I don't think he'll be fighting for the win. Sammy Sanchez is in great form too though and has finished 7th here in 2012. He also attacked hard at the bottom of the Cauberg ahead of Gilbert's winning push in 2014. Maybe this year Gilbert will return the favour and set him up on the Cauberg?
Julian Alaphilippe may have the no. 1 bib on the Etixx-QS team, and he has started to show signs of his form coming at just the right time with a fine ride in DBP on Wednesday. But with the form that Peter Vakoc is in at the moment, and given the nature of the finish here, I think that EQS should get behind the young Czech. Alaphilippe attacked and pushed to help set up the win for Vakoc, but he climbed well and looked strong and said after that he was really pleased with how the day went. Alaphilippe is now 22/1 from 33/1 on Wednesday afternoon, I took a little of the 33/1 on Wednesday as he was on the attack in DBP, but I also took 66/1 on Vakoc as he was riding away to victory at the top of the hill.
Vakoc was superb in DBP, riding with maturity and panache beyond his years. He has the power and attacking style to attack hard on the Cauberg and solo to the finish. He showed Wednesday that he can keep the power down on the easier slopes after a hard effort. He could also go with the likes of Gerrans, Kwiatkowski and Matthews and maybe attack again when they start looking at each other. 66/1 was a great price, he is now as short as 10/1 with Corals, which is far too low, he is still 30/1 with Will Hills and that is worth backing.
Enrico Gasparotto is a former winner of this race, winning in 2012 from Vanendert and Sagan. He rode well on Wednesday too to finish an impressive 2nd, dropping Gallopin on the run in to the finish, putting 6" in to him in the last 500m. It's a big ask to pull off another ride like that and beat the top favourites here, and he looks a little too short to me now at around 20/1, he was 33/1 before DBP and even that looked short to me, it would be a huge surprise I think if he was to land this win, but I wouldn't rule him out of a top 5 place.
Tony Gallopin stretched his legs on Wednesday too, attacking late with Gasparotto and Vakoc but he faded on the final climb when Vakoc put the hammer down. He still held on for 3rd though, his best result of the season. 6th here last year in the sprint, we will probably see him try to get away again in the last 10kms, but if it comes down to a reduced bunch sprint again I think he'll be 5th to 10th again.
Rui Costa is a rider that continues to fly under the radar I think, but he has been incredibly consistent with top placings this season. Pais Vasco was a prime example, where his worst result in the week was 15th, with a 2nd place on stage 4, and 7th overall in the GC. He looks to be coming in to form at just the right time and he was unlucky not to win that stage 4, Sammy Sanchez had got the jump on them and stole the win. He was right up there in the sprint last year and just missed out on the podium, finishing 4th. I think we could see a big ride from Costa again on Sunday and I think he's worth a small bet at 22/1 with Corals who are paying four places.
What about the sprinters that can hang in there? I backed Bryan Coquard at 50/1 for DBP on Wedneday as I thought he's riding well. He almost got us a result, beating Matthews in the sprint, but just missing out on a podium, finishing 4th. He is in great form and proved Wednesday what I expected, that he can hang in there like Matthews on a lot of these short, punchy climbs. He has a chance to repeat the feat on Sunday I think and if he comes to the finish with the leaders he would have a superb chance for the win. I also backed him at 66/1 on Wednesday evening after DBP, he is now only 33/1 best price, but generally 25/1, I think 33/1 with Ladbrokes is worth a small interest.
Fabio Felline and Niccola Bonifazio are two riders for Trek-Segafredo who would have a chance if they can hang in there, but I'm not sure they will. Same goes for Diegl Ulissi for Lampre, I think it will be all for Costa chez Lampre. Jelle Vanendert has a good record in the race, twice finishing 2nd here but he hasn't really produced the goods for a while now. The rest of the Lotto-Soudal squad looks very strong too, with Tiesj Benoot, Pim Ligthart, Jurgen Roelandts, Tim Wellens and Tosh Van Der Sande - I think they will be super-aggressive on Sunday and could really light up this race.
Simon Clarke and Tom Jelte Slagter could go well for Cannondale, Clarke looks big at 100/1, he's being backed and is as short as 50/1 in places. Alexis Vuillermoz could go well, but I'm watching him to see how he goes ahead of Fleche-Wallone where I think he has a big chance.
Movistar have no Alejandro Valverde this year, a rider who has finished 2nd twice, 3rd, 4th and 6th in this race. Instead it will be up to the likes of Erviti, who is riding as well as he ever has probably, JJ Lobato for the sprint or Daniel Moreno for a late attack, but I don't think they'll be winning this with the team they have here.
And then you have the likes of Thomas Voeckler, Simon Geschke, Jan Bakelants, Dylan Teuns, Marco Marcato, Pieter Weening, Sep Vanmarcke, Lieuwe Westra, Bob Jungels and lots more who could either go in the early break of the day or in late attacks over the final two or three climbs. Geschke is looking forward to it after a hard training block, Westra might be Astana's best hope of a win.
But I think it will come to a similar sort of pattern as last year, the break will have been reeled in in time and we'll get the lung-bursting attacks at the bottom of the Cauberg. The way the race now finishes 2kms after the top of the climb allows riders to come back to the leaders as they look around at each other and play 'after you sir'. You have to be a very strong rider, like Gilbert was in 2014, to ride away and stay away solo to the finish. If it comes to a situation like that, Vakoc has a chance, as does Alaphilippe, they might look to 1-2 it and one could stay away. Gerrans or Gallopin might try that also.
If it does come to a reduced group sprint of 10-20 riders, then Matthews of course has a big chance, as does Kwiatkowski, but neither appeal to me too much at the prices. Rui Costa I like at 22/1, as he could sneak in to the top 4, he doesn't have Valverde to beat this year. Bryan Coquard at 30/1 could surprise a few too hopefully if he can stay with the leaders. It should be a frantic last 15kms or so and the usual nail-biting stuff up the Cauberg.
Recommendations:
1pt each-way on Peter Vakoc at 66/1 with Sportingbet (take the 30/1 with Will Hill)
0.5pts each-way on Bryan Coquard at 66/1 with Corals (take the 33/1 with Ladbrokes or 28/1 with Boyles who are paying four places)
0.3pts each-way on Rui Costa at 22/1 with Corals paying four places
0.25pts each-way on Julian Alaphilippe at 33/1 with Sportingbet
Matchbets:
Coquard to beat Colbrelli - 2pts at 10/11 with Bet365
Matthew to beat Gerrans, Costa to beat Moreno and Kwiatkowski to beat Gilbert - 2pts at 15/8
Felline to beat Tsatevich and Slagter to beat Ulissi - 2pts at evens
Lobato to beat Swift - 2.5pts at evens (should be all for Lobato at Movistar, Swift might have to work for Kwiat)
Here are my top ten riders to watch in Amstel Gold for this week's Zweeler fantasy cycling games where you can play for cash prizes.
1 Peter Vakoc
2 Michael Matthews
3 Bryan Coquard
4 Rui Costa
5 Michal Kwiatkowski
6 Sep Vanmarcke
7 Simon Geschke
8 Julian Alaphilippe
9 Tony Gallopin
10 Enrico Gasparotto
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