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Published on Thursday, 31 March 2016 22:55

Tour of Flanders 2016

Sunday 3rd April, 255kms

It's all been building to this. Greg Van Avermaet has turned from nearly man in to a bonafide superstar; Peter Sagan has finally won a race in the rainbow stripes; Alexander Kristoff seems to have recovered from illness and is back winning again this week on the roads of Belgium..  

Fabian Cancellara comes here as the favourite after being very unlucky in E3 Harelbeke, breaking his bike just as things were starting to kick off. He still rode an incredible race to re-catch and drop most of his rivals and finish 4th, almost landing an unlikely podium place. Michal Kwiatkowski has burst on to the list of potential winners after his victory in the E3 and there are so many riders in good form coming in to this race it will be hard to narrow down the list of potential winners to 20 let alone 3 or 4 possible winners. 

It is the 100th edition of the race but the organisers haven't tried to make it whacky or unusual or tampered with the route in any great deal, in fact it's a traditional, tried and trusted route that is practically the same as last year, just a little bit shorter. Of course events in the last few weeks have left Belgians and the cycling community mourning victims of terrorist atrocities and tragedies, but the show goes on with respects being paid and memories honoured.

Alexander Kristoff was an impressive winner of the race in 2015, escaping with Niki Terpstra 28kms from home and holding their advantage despite a chase from Sagan and Van Avermaet from the top of the Paterberg. They passed us on the Kwaremont (above, we're on the left!) at warp speed and were fighting for a good line so much they banged shoulders like they were fighting for a final bend in a sprint. The way that Kristoff and Terpstra escaped though sums up how this race can be won and lost anywhere on the course and not just on the Kwaremont, Paterberg or Koppenberg.

As they reached the last uphill section of road just after the cobbles on the Kruisberg coming out of Ronse, Oliveira of Lampre eased himself off the front (at 46:35 in the video below). Terpstra suddenly accelerated up the right, Kristoff followed him in what looked like a pretty innocuos sort of move, just testing the legs or lifting the pace a little. But they quickly shot past Oliveira and powered on, Geraint Thomas at the front of the peloton looked around for someone else to chase, and suddenly they had a gap that was never to be closed down again. 

The Route 

The race starts in Bruges again, and for the most part the 100th edition of the race is going to be the exact same as last year's course. The main difference being that the opening 100kms are slightly different and it is just under 10kms shorter than last year at 255kms. The last 150kms or so are exactly the same with the loops of the Kwaremont and the Paterberg set to be the decisive section of the course again.

They head out of Bruges and head south-west through Torhout and Roselare, before heading back north-east and then turning south to head towards Oudenaarde and out on to the main part of the course. They don't do the Tiegemberg which was introduced last year, but instead the first hill they hit after 103kms will be the first passage of the Oude Kwaremont, generally taken at a pretty sedate pace compared to the next two passages. 

They are now on the twisting, criss-crossing loop south-east of Oudenaarde, where they take in more of the 'Hellingen' or cobbled climbs, including the Eikenberg and the Molenberg, but these are just appetisers to the main course still to come. They also cross the Berendries which returned to the race last year after a two-year absence. 

After 200km they start in to the decisive section of the race, with the second ascent up the Oude Kwaremont, followed just 3km later by the first passage of the Paterberg. There might be a selection made on the Kwaremont or Paterberg, but usually the favourites tend to wait for the next time around as there are still 50kms to go, but we've seen already in some races this year that riders are prepared to attack earlier and from unexpected places. .

Just 7kms later though we should see some fireworks when they hit the Koppenberg. I have ridden this a few times and there are some key points as to why it can be decisive. First, they come to it very fast on a downhill section of road. Then it's a sharp right turn in to a really narrow funnel. The barriers stick out quite a lot on the road so the width they can pass is only about 4m wide. Secondly, the climb is short, but steep and rough and it narrows even more the further up it goes, it's barely wide enough for a car. And finally, the cobbles are slippy! Even on a dry day your back wheel struggles to grip the cobbles. And don't even think about standing on the pedals, this is strictly a sit-down climb. (right)

Positioning will be crucial coming in to the Paterberg and it almost always makes a selection of some sort, easing the weaker riders out the back. Just 5km later they hit the Steebeekdries and 2km later the Taaienberg, Tornado Tom's hill, where we often see a big acceleration in the gutter by Boonen or one of the stronger men. Two years ago it was Greg Van Avermaet who went on the attack and again last year he attacked just at the very top to go in chase of Lutsenko who was up the road.

Next up is the Kruisberg as they leave Ronse, which is 1km long at 6%. It is dark and quite rough and an important point about this climb is that as you come off the cobbles the road still rises a little more on the regular road surface and the strong men push on here as the weaker flounder to get to the top of the cobbled section. It's where Terpstra and Kristoff made their move last year.. 

Then on to the Kwaremont.. It's not the steepest at 4.2% average but it does go on for 2.2kms and is very rough - there are large ruts and high ridges in the road, so if you can't get a clean line you bounce all over the road. When you are tired and suffering after 238kms, every cobble can feel like a sledgehammer against your front wheel.

It's where we can expect the final selection to take shape - three years ago, Cancellara put the hammer down and rode away from all bar Sagan. Two years ago he did the same, taking only Vanmarcke with him and they set off in pursuit of Van Avermaet and Vandenbergh and last year Kristoff and Terpstra pressed home their advantage ahead of the chasing pack.

What also makes this section so decisive is that just 3km later, with the lactic acid still burning in their legs they face a second ascent of the Paterberg. It may only be 380m long but its 13.7% average gradient at this point in the race rips things apart again, it hits 20% in parts and it's where a lot of riders crack and lose their chances, or where others can make a decisive move, like GVA and Sagan last year who left the rest behind to go in pursuit of Terpstra and Kristoff and on to 3rd and 4th place. From the top there's only 13km left to the finish along the familiar run-in to Oudenaarde and the long, flat finishing straight. On such a short run-in, strong men with 20-30" advantage can hold on to their lead, anything less than 20" with a strong chasing pack and you could see it come back together before the finish.

The Weather

It looks like being a disappointing day for those who like the harsh, nasty conditions that make this race even more of an epic event. The forecast is for a high of 19 degrees, with sunshine, no rain and hardly any wind. It will probably mean the roads will be mostly dry too as the Saturday is forecast to be similar and it should lead to a very fast race. It may be safer from a slippy course point of view, but with the pace high, and maybe more riders than usual involved at key points it could still get dangerous.  

Contenders and Favourites

Fabian Cancellara has been one of the favourites for this race for a long time, long before he started the year in such fine style with a win in the Trofeo Serra de Tramuntana in only his 3rd race of the season. He was best price 8/1 last November and when he followed that up with a superb win in Strade Bianche his price started to tumble, heading towards 5/1.  With his powerhouse win in the TT in Tirreno and his beast performance in E3 despite a slow mechanical, he now sits at the top of the betting, 3/1 generally but 7/2 is still available with William Hill.

Worthy favourite? You bet. The way he powered up the Kwaremont and the Paterberg in pursuit of a strong leading group in the E3 was simply sensational and there will not be many able to stay with him if he puts the hammer down on the last lap on Sunday. He was also super strong on the Kemmelberg in GW, pulling away with Sagan and only Vanmarcke could go with them. No rider has ever won the race more than three times, so what a story that would be if Fabs could land a record fourth win, in his final year, in the 100th edition. They might name a section of Pavé after him if he does it! 

Peter Sagan finally broke his duck with an excellent win in Gent Wevelgem last Sunday, and perhaps significantly, easily beating Cancellara in the sprint. He was excellent also in E3 Harelbeke and we were very unlucky not to land a winner with him there, he just was caught napping like an amateur with less than 500m to go and Kwiatkowski mugged him. He has been superb all year though and just seems to be building to a crescendo in time for the next two Monuments. He was very strong in GW, instigating the move that won the race with a powerful attack on the Kemmelberg and took some massive pulls to help keep Etixx and Van Avermaet and co. behind them.

I think he will be a major player here on Sunday and he looks a pretty solid each-way bet at 9/2, particularly with Corals as they are offering 4 places. I think he has a really big shot at winning this race, and at worst is probably going to be one of the first 3 or 4 home.

Greg Van Avermaet had a superb start to the season so far, with some great results in Qatar, followed by a fantastic first Classic win in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, outsprinting none other than Peter Sagan who finished 2nd yet again. 6th in Strade Bianche and a fine stage win in Tirreno (again beating Sagan), he seemed to go off the boil a little bit in the last week or so, but it turns out he had become a little sick, and he skipped the E3 as a precaution. He was unlucky in GW last week, he was right with Vanmarcke, Cancellara and Sagan when the move was made on the Kemmelberg but didn't descend down the other side as fast as them and a little gap formed which he was unable to bridge. This is a huge race for him though and his season will be already declared a success if he manages to finally land his first monument. He's Belgium's biggest hope of a win and it will be massive for Belgium and Belgian cycling if he wins in light of what they have been through in the last few weeks.

The last four years have seen him finish 4th, 7th, 2nd and 3rd and last year, bar the first two who had slipped the net, he was the most aggressive rider in the race. If there is a move goes on the Kwaremont or the Paterberg Van Avermaet will probably be able to go with it, he attacked hard on the Paterberg last year to pull away from the chase group and only Sagan could go with him. It was also very encouraging to see him ride powerfully up the Koppenberg in training during the week, it may only have been in training, but he was the fastest up the climb of all the riders that the Kwaremont reporter saw that day. You can see him just at the end of the video and he seems to be after getting his strength back (below). He is sure to be a big player again and he looks a big price at 10/1 with Corals paying four places. 

Alexander Kristoff - It's a dangerous game I think to write off Kristoff, even if he has been a little off-colour in recent weeks. He showed that by defying odds of 5/1 to win the first stage of De Panne on Tuesday and taking a 3rd place in stage 2. But he has been ill and he hasn't quite been himself, he even said himself immediately after the finish on Tuesday that he didn't feel good, but he still managed to win.. But I am going to write him off, at least from the point of view of being able to manage a top 3 here, he was struggling on the Kwaremont in the E3 last week, if he struggles Sunday, it's game over. 

Sep Vanmarcke is basing his whole season on the next few weeks and is coming in to form it seems at just the right moment too. 2nd to Sagan in GW last Sunday, he was very strong in the group too, helping to team-time-trial with Fabs and Sags to the finish, but he did look the weaker of the four in the run-in and seemed to shirk his turn at the front a bit. He may well make the key moves on Sunday, but he won't have the sprint to beat Cancellara, Sagan or Van Avermaet if they are there. 

Michal Kwiatkowski has burst on to the list of favourites following his win in E3 Harelbeke. He was very impressive when attacking with Sagan on the Karnemelkbeekstraat, a climb not normally known for its race-deciding moves, but it is a nasty, steep climb that gets steeper nearer the top and Kwiat and Sagan's high cadence attack was just too fast for the grinders of Etixx-QS and they had no answer for it. Once they got the gap, the current and former World Champion got in to two-up time trial mode and they weren't to be seen again. When Van Avermaet beat Sagan in the Tirreno stage 6, Kwiatkowski was best of the rest just 2" behind them, opening the sprint early to try to get the jump on Sagan and GVA, but he had no match for them in the uphill sprint. He leads Sky here on Sunday and could well be a dark horse for the race if he repeats his fine ride in E3.

Zdenek Stybar/Tom Boonen/Stijn Vandenbergh/Niki Terpstra - take your pick from the Etixx boys as to who will screw it up this time for them. Stybar and Terpstra will probably be their protected riders and depending on who you bet with, they are between 12 and 20/1 with Terpstra the shorter of the two in most places. Terpstra was impressive when winning Le Samyn a month ago, but has been no match for the likes of Sagan and Cancellara in recent weeks and I think it could be the same again Sunday. Stybar could have a chance if he could stay with Cancellara and Sagan when the moves come, but I think he might struggle too on the Paterberg in particular and he may not make it. 

Tiesj Benoot and Jurgen Roelandts offer two strong cards for Lotto-Soudal, they finished 5th and 8th last year, with Benoot in particular impressing as a 21 year old. Since then he has continued to blossom, with 3rd in Omloop, 8th in Strade and 7th in E3. He is perfectly at home over the cobbles and bergs of Flanders and looks like a future winner of this race. Whether it will be this year is another question, he just doesn't look to have the power just yet of Cancellara or Sagan and he could be left behind on the Kwaremont or the Paterberg. He admits himself too that he goes better when the weather is cold, windy and rainy and he won't get his favourable conditions on Sunday.I had backed him a few weeks back at 28/1 but I am not as confident now with the conditions going against him a bit and with how well the likes of Fabs and Sagan are riding in recent days. 

Roelandts took a stunning 3rd place in Milan San Remo a few weeks back and followed that up with a 7th in GW, but in between he suffered from back pains and stomach problems in the E3 and didn't finish, but has recovered well from that apparently. He has said that he has rested up and focused entirely on the Ronde, they have done lots of recon rides of the closing parts of the race and are well prepared. I think he can top ten but I don't think he'll be surprising with a podium place again, it's not easy to shake back pains.  

Ian Stannard and Geraint Thomas are two more options for Sky, but I don't think either of them will be winning this. I think Stannard will be the main man for Sky in Paris-Roubaix and may be asked to work for both Thomas and Kwiat out on the course, but Thomas doesn't look like he will win this to me either. He may have won Paris-Nice and Volta Algarve recently, but he hasn't won a stage/race since the E3 just over a year ago. I think 5th to 15th is what we can expect from him again. And not forgetting Luke Rowe, he too has been riding very well in recent weeks and was desperately unlucky in stage 1 of De Panne when puncturing out of the race-winning move. I have a feeling though that he too could be targeting Paris-Roubaix and have a small bet on him at 150/1 for that, I'm not backing him for Flanders though.

Lars Boom and Lieuwe Westra are two options for Astana, a team that have been making headlines this week for their seeming lack of team spirit and tactical nous, when in the first stage of De Panne Lutsenko and Westra seemed to both be riding for themselves. Boom also seemed to be displaying a couldn't-be-bothered attitude in stage 2 when loitering at the back for most of the day and then drifting away when the inevitable splits came. There were mixed messages from Boom in the last few days for me, with speculation arising that he might be leaving the road scene at the end of the year to join Sven Nys's cyclo-cross team. He went well in E3 and said he felt good on the cobbles, but then didn't feel good two days later in GW. He also maybe tellingly said 'My focus now is until Roubaix and Amstel.."

It paid off in the end for Astana and Westra though as they took 1st and 3rd on the GC in De Panne, with two strong time trial performances. Westra was strong in the attack with Kristoff on day one of De Panne, taking most of the turns, but I fear that the stress and effort required this week from that break and being leader might have a detrimental effect on his chances on Sunday. He also has never ridden Flanders before, it's not many riders come to Flanders and win first time out. 

Jesper Stuyven is a local Flandrian and knows the roads like the back of his hand, but unless something happens to Cancellara, he knows he's here to be a super-domestique. He was a huge asset to him recently in races like the E3 where he waited for him after the Kwaremont and helped him chase back in, it may be that he is asked to soften up the others with some hard pulls on the Kruisberg and the Kwaremont before Fabs takes over near the top of the Kwaremont and rides away when everyone is on the limit. Again though, backing him is basically taking a bet that Cancellara gets taken out of the race pretty early on. 

Arnaud Démare comes here as the perhaps unworthy winner of Milan San Remo, even the Secret Pro has weighed in this week and bluntly called him a cheat and that Ben Swift was the rightful winner of MSR. Be that as it may, Démare is riding well and was unlucky in GW, as he 'won' the sprint for 5th in GW, but the four leaders were not for catching that day. Would he have won a sprint against Sagan if they had finished in a group? Maybe. But that is the question here too - will this race come down to a reduced group sprint which he'll be part of, or not. If it does, he has a chance, he was clearly good enough in GW and also took 2nd there last year, and wasn't far off in 23rd in this race last year. I think though he may have more chance in Paris-Roubaix of the race coming down to a reduced sprint and I might hold off on backing him until then. 

Edvald Boasson Hagen is almost a forgotten man in this race, he's not really on the lips of many as a potential winner here. After a blistering start to the year he was being talked up as a potential Classics winner this year, but so far he hasn't shown anything to me to say that he is going to ride himself on to a podium spot this year. 

And it's big prices the rest - Jempy Drucker and Daniel Oss are two more at triple-digit odds who could have big races, but again, like Stuyven, unless something happens Van Avermaet they are just plan B's and domestiques. Martin Elmiger, Edward Theuns, Dries Devenyns, Marco Marcato, Florian Senechal - all could ride well and could be involved if it comes down to a reduced bunch sprint, but I think that may not be how it pans out - all are capable of decent rides though so may be worth looking at match bets involving them closer to the time. 

I'm hoping for big rides from the Cannondale boys who have been beset by illnesses and crashes in recent weeks (none of their eight riders finished Gent-Wevelgem on Sunday), I'm looking forward to seeing Toms Skujins, Patrick Bevin and Dylan Van Baarle ride it, hopefully they go well. And no doubt we'll see Matt Brammieir (right) going for the beer prize in the break again this year, I hope to be cheering him on up the Kwaremont on Sunday afternoon in the break of the day again.

So what's the verdict then? Well I think it's going to be a fantastic race once again - the E3 and Ghent Wevelgem have set it up nicely for a battle amongst the big guns and we are going to be in for a treat. It doesn't look like we'll have a surprise winner this year, I think it will come from one of the top 10 in the betting and probably even from one of the top 3. 

Cancellara has a big chance of writing his name in the history books with a record 4th win in the 100th Ronde. He has strong support with Devolder, Stuyven, Theuns and Popovych and I wouldn't be surprised to see him stomp on the pedals at the top of the Kwaremont last time up and blow the race to pieces. He may find only 3 or 4 are able to stay with him and they will press on to the Paterberg with a small lead that he extends by again hammering it up the Paterberg. To win it though I think he needs to arrive at the finish alone, and that will be a big ask, although it is something we have seen him do before. 

I think he'll have to arrive alone, as his biggest danger is going to be Peter Sagan - he is looking incredibly strong and was dancing up the hills in E3. He was one of the strongest on the Paterberg last year and if Cancellara goes for it, I think Sagan will be able to go with him. Van Avermaet will be aggressive and will attack numerous times I think, and unless he is caught on a bad wheel and misses the move on the Kwaremont, he should be able to go with Cancellara and Sagan too. Vanmarcke might make it a powerhouse quartet that go on to the Paterberg, maybe Benoot and Kwiatkowski too.

I know it's not original to pick the top three in the betting, but they really are the three strongest men in the race and I think we are almost guaranteed to have at least two of the three of them on the podium. I'd love to see Cancellara take it, but my head says Sagan will outsprint him, with Van Avermaet taking 2nd just ahead of him. Sagan at 9/2 with PP paying four places is the bet I think, it'll be hard to envisage him outside the top four. Van Avermaet at 10/1 with Corals paying four places is also worth backing, as is a small saver on Cancellara just in case he rides solo to the finish.

I think it's also worth a small bet on Démare in case Cancellara, Sagan, Vanmarcke, Van Avermaet, Lotto and Sky neutralise each other after the Paterberg and a group of 20 or so come to the finish.. He could well be the best sprinter at the finish. I missed the 66/1 on him but there's still 50/1 with firms paying 4 places, and that's worth taking in case he leads home the bunch after 2 or 3 guys have finished clear of the rest. 

Recommendations/bets placed:

1.5pts each-way on Peter Sagan at 9/2 with Paddy Power paying four places

1pt on Greg Van Avermaet at 10/1 with Coral paying four places

1pt win on Fabian Cancellara at 7/2 with William Hill

0.25pts each-way on Arnaud Démare at 50/1 with Skybet paying four places

0.3pts each-way on Tiesj Benoot at 28/1 (take the 25/1 with Coral paying four places

Matchbets

Thwaites to beat Breschel - Breschel has been very sick “Breschel has been one of the worst guys hit on the team. He just can’t pedal, and he was going to be one of our top guys for the classics,” said Jack Bauer. Thwaites has been going ok without going great, but it might be good enough to see him beat Breschel home, he may not even finish. 3pts at Evens with Paddy Power

Benoot to beat Thomas - 2pts at 5/6 - I think Benoot will be top 6, I don't think Thomas will.

Elmiger to beat Chavanel - 2pts at 11/10 - I think Elmiger could be top 15, not sure Chavanel will be

Sagan to beat Kristoff and Benoot to beat Thomas - 2pts at 15/8 with Paddy Power

This season I am also going to be naming my top ten riders to watch in some races, for the many of you out there that like playing Fantasy Cycling games. Fantasy games such as the Zweeler cycling games where you can play for cash prizes.

Here's my ten to watch for Tour of Flanders

1 Greg Van Avermaet

2 Peter Sagan

3 Fabian Cancellara

4 Teisj Benoot

5 Zdenek Stybar

6 Sep Vanmarcke

7 Oscar Gatto

8 Arnaud Démare

9 Niki Terpstra

10 Michal Kwiatkowski

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