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Published on Thursday, 25 February 2016 18:13

Omloop Het Nieuwsblad

Saturday 27th February 2015, 200.8kms

The Omloop. Not a name that really fits the first battle over the cobbles of northern Europe. It sounds like the name of a really bad link road around a non-descript town in the middle of Belgium. Instead, it's the scene for the first taste of proper racing. Racing in the wind, maybe in the rain or even snow and more importantly in the cycling heartland of northern Europe. Oh and cobbles. 

Formerly known as the Het Volk, now called the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad after the Het Nieuwsblad newspaper, a local Belgian paper that's a geat supporter of racing in the Flanders heartland. The organisers need to watch the weather forecast carefully and if there is a danger the cobbled sections will be too dangerous, they change the route. In 2004 the course was deemed to be too dangerous and the race was cancelled entirely. In 2014 the race was nearly lost but went ahead, the Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne on the Sunday didn't. 

The forecast for this Saturday looks promising though - no rain is forecast, nor snow but it will be cold and windy. It's not going to get warmer than 7 degrees all day and there will be a stiff north-easterly wind blowing all day, up around 13-14mph, meaning they will have a headwind for most of the way back to Ghent, and at various points like coming out of Ronse and heading north-east they'll also be hitting the head-wind. But as the course winds back and forth and around in so many different directions in the crucial second half of the race, there will be plenty of opportunities to split things in the cross-wind.

Last year's race was sensational - almost as much for how the race was lost as for how it was won. With 43.kms to go, Stijn Vandenbergh attacked on the Haaghoek and blew what was left of the peloton to pieces, Tom Boonen having done a job just before that on 'his' Taienberg. Vanmarcke went to the front and suddenly a considerable gap seperated the leading selection from the peloton, with Stannard, Boonen, Van Marcke, Van Avermaet, Senechal, Ligthart and Terpstra, only for Van Marcke to puncture with just 41.7kms to go when pushing really hard at the front of what was ultimately the race-winning move.

He got a very quick wheel change from the side of the road, but he was never going to get back on with EQS in drive mode at the front. Arnaud Démare also punctured in the exact same section but didn't have the wherewithall to stop and get a wheel from the soigneurs at the side of the road like Vanmarcke, instead he slid his way along waiting for a car. On the next little uphill section, Terpstra stepped on the gas and only Stannard, Boonen and Vandebergh were able to go with him.

Tepstra, Boonen and Vandenbergh held all the aces with three Etixx-QuickStep men in the break versus Stannard, and they pushed on as just behind them Van Avermaet and a charging Vanmarcke chased with another EQS man Stybar after they had got away from what was left of the peloton on the Paddestraat, Philippe Gilbert just missing out on the move as he had to come around slower riders. They came to within 13" of catching the four leaders (below on the right) but up front EQS conspired to blow it.

With 5km to go, they started trying to work Stannard, far too late, he'd had an armchair ride for 35kms. Boonen attacked but Stannard gradually wound him in. Terpstra immediately attacked, but who chases after him? Inexplicably, his team-mate Vandebergh does. Stannard again catches them and attacks. His attack blew Vandebergh who by now probably feared the wrath of Pat, Terpstra chased but in the process dropped his sprinter Boonen. Terpstra tried to attack from the front with 200m to go, but it was too far out as Stannard got his diesel engine running and passed him on the line. 

It was a complete disaster from EQS in one of THEIR races, with Vandebergh hanging his head in shame on the podium and Boonen just looking dazed and confused. They will be desperate for revenge this year and we should expect to see a show of strength from them again in an attempt to make amends - Boonen, Keisse, Lampaert, Maes, Martin, Terpstra, Vandenbergh and Van Keirsbulck make a formidable squad on this terrain.

Stannard in the other hand will not be here this year to make it a hat-trick of wins but there's a long list of guys who will be looking to get their Classics season off to a flying start. Peter Sagan makes his first start of the season in Europe; Van Avermaet, Gilbert, Drucker and Gerts for BMC; rising star Tiesj Benoot for Lotto Soudal along with Stig Broeckx and Jens Debuscherre; Orica-Greenedge have a strong-looking squad with Keukeleire, Juul-Jensen, Hayman, Durbridge, Docker and Bewley and a bunch of sprinters like Kristoff, Haussler, Hofland, Viviani and Van Poppel will be hoping the race doesn't split up too much, along with the usual local experts from the likes of Topsport and Wanty-Groupe Gobert. 

It doesn't attract as many sprinters as Sunday's Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne, naturally given that it's a much tougher course over 13 hills and 18kms of cobbles, it's more one for the Flandrian hard-men. The KBK on Sunday has attracted a quality lineup of sprinters though, with André Griepel saying he's going to start even though he broke a rib in a crash in the Algarve and Kristoff, Ewan, Bennett, Groenewegen, Démare, Pelucchi, Viviani and Drucker all looking to land a sprint victory. 

The Route

The route is again quite similar to last year's course, leaving Ghent and heading south and once again they hit the first cobbled stretch of the race at the Haaghoek after 56.2kms and after 59kms they hit the first Helingen at the Leberg, 3kms earlier than last year. After the Leberg they hit five climbs in the next 44kms, and like last year they are again tackling the Mur de Geraardsbergen, or the Muur-Kappelmuur as it's known on the map, after 85.6kms. Again, it is too far out to cause any real problems though.

With 88kms to go they go back over the Haaghoek for a second and more decisive time, scene of a push by Vandenbergh last year. It's down in the south-west corner that things start to heat up though as they head towards Ronse and take in a number of climbs that feature in the Ronde Van Vlanderen. First up the Kruisberg that rises up out of the town of Ronse, on a dark and rough cobbled stretch after 134kms. As they come off the cobbles at the top the road still rises so it's an opportunity for the strong guys at the front to really put the hammer down and stretch things and make another selection.  

The helingen and cobbles come thick and fast then over the next 50kms or so and it's the repeated assault of hills and cobbles that breaks the race up and gives the stonger guys the opportunities to whittle down the peloton. With 67kms to go they hit the Donderij, a longish, but pretty smooth stretch of cobbles before they then tackle Tom's Taaienberg just 5kms later. One of the hardest cobbled sections of the race and an almost guaranteed point of attack for Tom Boonen, as it is one of his favourite climbs, we saw him put the hammer down here again last year. Expect all the E-QS boys to be stuck to his wheel, along with the other favourites of BMC, Katusha, Sky and Lotto-NL Jumbo as they look to make a final selection with just over 50kms to go.

Two more hills of the Eikenberg and the Wolvenberg before three sections of cobbles in just 2.7kms, the Ruiterstraat, Karel Martelstraat and the Holleweg. The Leberg climb is crossed for a second time on the way back north with 40.5kms to go, then 6kms later the Boembeke climb, a new one this year, quickly followed by the Paddestraat which was also used last year at a similar point in the race. With just 20.8kms to go there's the final cobbled section of the race, the Lange Munte, also the last cobbled section last year before they start the run for home. The run in to the finish is pretty straightforward as they race through the outskirts of Gent and the finish is a reasonably long straight, but slightly uphill should it come down to a sprint finish. 

Contenders and Favourites

You have to start with the Etixx Quick-Step squad, such is their strength in depth. Tom Boonen leads the squad with a wrong hanging over his head he wants to put right. Not only did he conspire to blow it last year when he maybe should have held on for a sprint (or maybe he knew he just didn't have the legs), but it's also a race that he still hasn't won - he has finished 2nd and 3rd twice, 5th, 10th and 13th. He made his comeback in the Volta a Valenciana three weeks ago and could maybe have won stage 3, but when the door started to shut in front of him with Bouhanni drifting over to the right, Boonen backed off and didn't fight back. Perfectlyunderstandable given the horrible crash he suffered last year in the Abu Dhabi Tour, he was badly injured in that crash and it almost ended his career.

He showed though that he still has the legs, being in a position to win the sprint like that in only his 2nd road race of the season and this is his turf. It would be great to see him in the mix again on Saturday and maybe even pull off the overdue win. But if it's not to be Tornado Tom's day, there's plenty on the team who can still do a job for EQS. Tony Martin makes his debut in the race and over cobbles in a Classic, ahead of his eagery awaited participation in Paris-Roubaix this year. He's got a big engine, we all know that, and we know he won the stage of the Tour de France over cobbles last year. But this is a different matter altogether and it will be interesting to see if he becomes a contender in the race or is there for practice and to help out the likes of Terpstra.

Niki Terpstra blew it last year, he really should have won the race, or at least helped stop Stannard from winning it. EQS acted like a bunch of rivals rather than team-mates and Terpstra has to shoulder some of the blame. The former Paris-Roubaix winner is perfectly suited to this course and is bound to be involved again this year though. Twice a winner of Dwars Door Vlanderen ('12 &'14) a race run over a similar distance and many of the same roads (Taienberg, Leberg etc) and he has finished in the top 6 here in three out the last four times he entered, Top 6 in three of his last four Tours of Flanders and Paris Roubaixs, he's a master of the Hellingen and cobbles. Boonen and Terpstra are both 7/1 for this race and out the two, I'd think Terpstra has to be the better bet. 

Peter Sagan has been made the 6/1 favourite for this race, his first start in Europe after a publicity jaunt to South America for the Tour de San Luis where he finished 4th twice and 2nd once. He has only entered the Omloop once in 2010 where he finished in 66th place, five mintues down on Flecha. He has finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd in Gent Wevelgem though and 2nd, 4th and 5th in the Ronde so he's well able to cope with the cobbles and hills. I wasn't sure he'd do anything in San Luis as he seems to have had a very chaotic winter, with far too many distractions for my liking. Whether he has knuckled down since and is fit enough to take on a lot of guys who have been racing hard for the last month is another question, and I am not all that keen on backing him at just 6/1. 

Greg Van Avermaet is also 7/1 and he has started the season fantastically well, but in typical Van Avermaet fashion - great results, but no wins. His consistency has been even better than ever though - in the 11 road races he has entered this year he has finished in the top 7 in seven of them, including two 2nds, a 3rd and two 4ths and has finished no lower than 29th place. Like Terpstra, Van Avermaet is a master of this race, finishing in the top 6 in five of the eight times he has entered, coming desperately close in 2014 when he should have beaten Stannard in a two-up sprint. On a bitterly cold day his body just couldn't react when Stannard jumped. He has finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th in the Ronde also, he knows these roads like the back of his hand. He just missed out on the move by the Etixx boys last year and chased them with Vanmarcke, eventually finishing 6th. He will be desperate to make up for missing out last year, and he looks stronger than ever to me this year. If he can come to the finish with a small group he could well win the sprint finish.

Alexander Kristoff - logic says a sprinter like him shouldn't be winning races like this, but he has of course won the Ronde Van Vlaanderen last year, and finished 4th and 5th in it too. In this race though, his best finish was 11th last year, he missed the main moves and even the chase moves by Vanmarcke and Gilbert. He has been in fantastic form again at the start of this year, winning no fewer than 5 races already, joint top for the season with Marcel Kittel. He may well hang in there on Saturday and sprint to victory, but at 17/2 I'm not interested in backing him.

Philippe Gilbert was very unlucky last year, he just missed out on the main move and again, when Vanmarcke put the hammer down and took Van Avermaet and Stybar with him Gilbert got stuck behind some roadblocks and couldn't bridge the gap, ending up dragging Chavanel and Marcato along for a while until he just rode away from them and went in solo pursuit, eventually finishing 8th on his own between the Stybar group and the first big group led home by Luke Rowe. He too has had a good start to the season, winning in Murcia and riding well in Valencia, he seems ready for a big assault on the Classics this spring, at 33 he won't get many more chances to have a good spring campaign. At 14/1, twice the price of Van Avermaet he is tempting me to back him, if he can make it to the front group this year, along with Van Avermaet they will have a real chance of landing a victory between them. It would be a hat-trick of wins for Gilbert after winning in 2006 and 2008, it'll be ten years since his first victory.

The next two in the betting are two young Belgians with great prospects - Edward Theuns and Tiesj Benoot, both at 18/1 with PP. Theuns has moved to Trek-Segafredo this year and they have high hopes for him in the northern Classics in the years to come. Although just 22 and 23 for his first two rides in this race for Topsport, he finished in 21st and 14th place in the last two years, coming in with the Kristoff chasing group last year. His best result to date though from a cobbled race point of view was his 2nd place in the Dwars Door last year, in a 1-2 with his team-mate Jelle Wallays after they had escaped with, and seen off Dylan Van Baarle and Michal Kwiatkowski. 

Tiejs Benoot looks a superstar in the making, he seems to have everything in his locker - he can do the flat, fast sprint type races, he can do cobbles and he can climb. He's had a great start to the season with a 3rd and 4th in the Mallorca races, the 3rd in Tramuntana especially good as he finished just behind Kwiatkowski (in sprint for 2nd after Cancellara) and ahead of the likes of Valverde and Brambilla. In the Trofeo Pollenca he finished 23rd in the sprint again, behind Kwiatkowski and Stybar, but ahead of Valverde, Boasson-Hagen and Terpstra. 16th overall in a tough Volta a Algarve last week, winning the youth classification, he clearly has great legs early season.

His most significant performance to date though was his fantastic 5th place in the Ronde last year, finishing with Boom and ahead of Degenkolb and Stybar. 6th in that Dwaard Door that Theuns finished 2nd in I mentioned above, he led home the first group that finished. He's impressed me so much this season already I backed him a few weeks back for Paris-Roubaix at 28/1. Can he get a result here though? It's very possible. I'll wait to see if I can get 25/1 or bigger though, I fear he might find it tough to break on to the podium in this field..

We start getting in to some of the bigger numbers from here on - Luke Rowe is 22/1, based only I think on he leading home the chasing group last year to xxth place, I don't think he'll improve in to a placing this year. Vandenbergh finally won a race a few weeks back in Valenciana, but you would think he will be just on team duty again. It will take a twist of faith for him to fall in to a winning position again, 25/1 is not a bet.

Arnaud Démare was unlucky last year, puncturing at the same time as Vanmarcke (right), but the difference in power and experience between them at that point in the race was clear as Vanmarcke powered after the leaders after a smart road-side wheel change and finished 6th, whereas Démare finished down in 10th place, or 2nd in the bunch sprint.. He's 33/1, bordering on tempting though in case it goes smoothly for him this year, I think I'd need 50/1 on him to get me involved, hopefully someone will go 50s or bigger. .

Jempy Drucker and Sylvain Chavanel are also trading at 33/1, and although both seem to be riding well I don't think they'll be in the top 6 here. Danile Bennati is just 40/1 and you'd think the only chance he has is if something happens to Sagan and gets an extremely fortunate set of circumstances deliver him with a chance of winning a sprint group. A DNF in 2010 on his only start here is enough to put me off. 

There are a bunch of guys then on 50/1, some interest me, others don't. Jens Keukeleire is one that could be interesting at 50/1, he will be Orica-GreenEdge's big hope here and he has a strong squad behind him. He hasn't done much to say he'll break in the top 3 in this field, but he might make the move of the day and then he might have a chance. Dries Devenyns, Jurgen Roelandts, Jens Debuscherre and Jasper Stuyven all look like they are capable of a top 20 finish, but maybe not a top 3. 

One rider that is now 50/1 though that caught my eye, but more so when he was 100/1 when the market opened, was Marco Marcato of the Wanty Groupe Gobert team. The reason? Well he was right in the mix last year with 40kms to go, but like Gilbert, when the race-winning moves came he was caught behind riders and didn't make it. He did though join Gilbert and Chavanel and went in pursuit of Vanmarcke, Stybar and GVA just up the road, but they just couldn't catch them. That's him in the red circle on the left with Gilbert going after Stybar and Van Avermaet in the red on the right, they were that close to going with them.

Maybe in hindsight Van Avermaet should have waited for Gilbert and Marcato and worked together to chase down the front four, but in the moment he just pressed on instead with Stybar and SVM. Paddies may have cut him to 50s but he's 125/1 with Ladbrokes, it's worth a small bet.

But then when Gilbert put the hammer down on one cobbled section, Chavanel let the wheel go and Marcato was stuck behind him watching Gilbert ride away to finish in 8th place, Marcato came home in the first big group in 15th. He has started the season reasonably well also, taking 9th place on that lumpy stage in Oman to the Ministry of Tourism, won by EBH and has finished 6th in this race in 2012. I had a bit at 100/1 and unfortunately Paddy Power's trader ran away again and now hides behind a 50/1 quote. You might get bigger on him elsewhere. 

Stijn Devolder at 66/1, Pim Ligthart at 80/1 (was in that group that Vandenbergh pulled away from the peloton with 43kms to go but dropped out of it), Iljo Keisse and Tom Van Asbroeck at 100/1, Florian Senechal and Stig Broeckx at 150/1.. they could all feature prominently in this race, although some might be saving themselves for KBK on Sunday too.. That's another important thing to bear in mind with this race, some riders ride it to get some training in for KBK on the Sunday. 

Another outsider at a big price that could go well is IAM Cycling's Oliver Naesen (right) - he's a local boy who grew up near Ghent and knows the roads of OHN inside out - “I live less than 40 minutes from Ghent where I went to school. I train every day on these roads. At Nieuwsblad, I finished 18th in my first participation in 2015. This time I would like to finish in the top-10. It is important to know how to conserve your resources, but also always to be present near the front between the 130th and 180th kilometer. After that, it is all a mental game because everyone is burnt." He was 150/1 with Paddy Power so that was worth a small bet given what he had to say above. 

It's going to be a great Classics opener I think, so many riders in such great form, so many sub-plots and stories and revenge missions going on.. Etixx-QuickStep have the squad to win it, but will they blow it again? BMC look super-strong also and may just have more tactical awareness and guile in GVA and PhilGil to steal this. Tiejs Benoot probably offers Lotto-Soudal's best chance of success and could well highlight his potential with a podium place, and I've also picked a few outisders for an interest at big prices. 

Recommendations:

 1pt each-way on Philippe Gilbert at 14/1 with PP

0.5pts each-way on Tiejs Benoot at 18/1 with PP

0.25pts each-way on Marco Marcato at 125/1 with Ladbrokes

0.25pts each-way on Oliver Naesen at 150/1 with PP

Match Bets 

This season I am also going to be naming my top ten riders to watch in some races, for the many of you out there that like playing Fantasy Cycling games. Fantasy games such as the Zweeler cycling games where you can play for cash prizes.

Starting this weekend is the Fantasy Spring CyClassics competition with a prize pool of €6,000!

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Here's my ten to watch for the Omloop Het Niewsblad

1 Greg Van Avermaet

2 Tjies Benoot

3 Nicki Terpstra

4 Marco Marcato

5 Oliver Naesen

6 Tom Boonen

7 Philippe Gilbert

8 Jens Keukeleire

9 Arnaud Démare

10 Peter Sagan

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