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Published on Wednesday, 16 March 2016 21:55

Milan San Remo

Saturday 19th March

Milan to San Remo, 291Km

Milano San Remo... 'La Classicisima di Primavera'. The first monument of the season starts on Saturday morning in Milano and some six and a half hours, and 291 kilometres later they come charging down off the Poggio to the finish line on Via Roma in San Remo. 

2015's running of the race saw a thrilling finale with lots of attacks in the closing stages, but it ultimately came down to a bunch sprint and the winner was not certain until the very last metre when Degenkolb got his nose in front of Kristoff and Matthews, with Sagan, Bonifazio, Bouhanni and Cancellara almost in a line of six crossing the line.

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It's a race steeped in history and prestige, a race notorious for its distance and its climax over the ascent, and descent of the Poggio, a name famous in cycling folklore. Sometimes raced in harsh, northern-Italy-in-March winter conditions, it's sometimes referred to as 'the sprinters Classic' but you have to be a real hard man to win this one. Conditions got so bad in 2013 that the race had to be stopped and riders transferred by buses and cars to further along the route until they were able to race on the roads again. Many didn't finish the course.. but as bad as that was, more finished that day (135) than finished in the 2014 running of the race, with only 114 finishing, the lowest number of finishers the race has seen in modern times. Heavy, cold rain took its toll and it was the hard Norwegian Alexander Kristoff who triumphed at 80/1 for me that day..

With the recent cancellation of key stages in both Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico, organisers, fans, teams and riders will be hoping that the weather is kind to them this year, and it looks like it will be. But what a race we could have in prospect here. So many riders are in excellent shape and have been winning races already this season. Races have been shared around quite a bit, with even the likes of Arnaud Démare and Greg Van Avermaet winning races instead of being plucky losers.

Michael Matthews is so strong he's winning prologues ahead of Tom Dumoulin; Peter Sagan has NEARLY won nearly every race he's started; Greg Van Avermaet is on fire; Nacer Bouhanni is winning again and full of confidence and fire in his belly. Fabian Cancellara took the field apart in the Tirreno TT and is winning on the road as well; Edvald Boasson Hagen is in the best shape he's been in years and Fernando Gaviria has energed as one of the leading favourites for the race just this week with a fantastic victory in Tirreno. Of course the reigning champion John Degenkolb will not be here to defend his title, he is still convalescing from his horrible crash in Spain in early February. 

The Race

Luck plays a massive part in this race - an untimely puncture or one of the many nervous crashes can put paid to your chances. Last year a crash by Andrew Fenn coming off the Cipressa saw a number of riders come down heavily and suddenly Thomas, Swift and Luke Rowe had a gap and they pressed on as a three-man TT. As they hit the Cipressa, Stybar and Van Avermaet attacked out of the peloton and quickly caught them with 26kms to go and almost at the same time Arnaud Démare came down in a crash and a mechanical meant it was the end of his race.

The break was quickly caught though but Stannard hammered it up the Cipressa and strung things out, with Kristoff and Bouhanni really struggling at the back (below) along with Cavendish. But they managed to hang in and recover for the Poggio and made it to the finish to contest the sprint.

With 18kms to go Oss attacked from the front and Thomas was straight on his wheel and they pulled out a gap only to be finally caught after a valiant effort near the top of the Poggio. Gilbert attacked, it failed, Van Avermaet attacked and stretched them out, Matthews and Sagan marked it, but it all came back together thanks to strong work by Katusha and in particular Luca Paolini in time for a sprint finish on the Via Roma. 

Kristoff became the first Norwegian winner of MSR in 2014 and added his name to an illustrious list of winners. First run in 1907, it is known as 'The Sprinters Classic'  with the Giro Di Lombardia in the Autumn known as 'The Climbers Classic'. But as we know, it's not just sprinters win the MSR and it's not just climbers win Lombardia!

Eddy Merckx has the most wins in the race with seven, more recently Eric Zabel has won four, but famously threw away a fifth title when celebrating too early, Oscar Freire mugging him on the line. Sean Kelly has two wins, the best of which was after his breath-taking descent of the Poggio in 1992, showing that the Poggio can decide winners coming down it, as well as up it.

John Degenkolb became the second German in two years to win the race in 2015 after Gerard Ciolek in 2013, joining Eric Zabel and Rudi Altig as the only four German winners of the race. Pippo Pozzato was the last Italian winner of the race in 2006 the end of a good run for the Italians, with Petacchi winning in 2005, Bettini in 2003 and Cippolini in 2002.

The Route

The route is more or less the same as it was in 2014 and 2015 - including the Cipressa and the Poggio, but without the Pompeiana that was supposed to be added in 2014, but was subsequently removed because of the poor condition of the road. The climb of La Manie was introduced in 2008, which helped the puncheurs to shed some of the sprinters in the editions that followed, but was dropped again in 2014, when the Pompeiana was supposed to be introduced. The course is 3kms shorter than last year's edition at 291kms, I don't think it will make it any easier! 

So it's back to the classic route again - the road leaves Milan and meanders along for 118kms until the start of the Turchino, a long but easy climb which tops out with 142kms gone and then dives down to the coast for 80kms or so of flat racing. It should be fast though as they should have a tail wind for most of the day. 

At the 240km mark, when most races are long finished, they are only just getting to the serious part of the race. First up, the three 'Capi' - the Capo Mele, Cervo and Berta, but they shouldn't really trouble most of the peloton. With 266kms gone though they face the first big 'reducer' of the day, the Cipressa. 5.6kms long at an average of 4.1%, we should see some early attacks go and should see the peloton lose maybe a quarter of whoever's left. 

A quick descent and they are back on the coast again for the flat run to the Poggio. Any breakaway riders need to work extremely hard here as every second counts on the Poggio. With just over 10kms to go they turn right off the main coastal road as the road forks in two and start the Poggio di Sanremo. It's not that long as just 3.7kms, nor that hard at just 3.7% average (max of 8%), but the fact that it comes after 285kms of riding that makes it tough. It starts steady enough but rises in gradient at various points on the way up. I'm not 100% certain on this, but I would imagine the guys in the main peloton will be riding this in their big chain ring.

Once over the top it's the "kamikaze" descent, as Séan would say, back down to San Remo, there's only 5.4kms to go from the top. At the bottom, there are just over 2kms left to the finish on the Via Roma, so not much time to get organised, it's every man for himself. There's a right-hander with 750m to go, but after that it's more or less dead straight to the line, with the sprinters hugging the right-hand side of the road last year.

The Weather

The riders will be happy to hear that the forecast for Sunday's race is very good, with temperatures expected to be around 14-17° and no rain expected. 

The wind will be a head-wind all day long more or less as it's a south-westerly wind whipping in off the coast. It's not going to be a strong win though, only around 4-5mph, but it will make life a little bit harder for the break of the day and late attacks on the run to the finish. It also means that it will be a head-wind up the finishing straight, so could favour sprinters who like to sit in and come late.. 

Course Details

Contenders and Favourites

With the recent changes to the route that removed some of the climbing, the race has swung back towards being a strong sprinters type of race. Degenkolb, Matthews, Kristoff, Sagan and Bouhanni were all in the top six last year, Kristoff, Cancellara, Swift, Lobato and Cavendish were in the top five the year before. The 291kms over hilly terrain saps the energy and it takes a very strong rider who can break away on the Cipressa or the Poggio and hold it all the way to the line.. There will be attacks late on, Nibali tried it last year on the Cipressa and got a decent gap for a while, but the peloton led by OGE, Katusha, Giant-Alpecin and Sky chased him down. Geraint Thomas and Daniel Oss tried late attacks but they too were chased down going over the Poggio.

You need to be able to climb but also position yourself well at the top of the Poggio, find yourself too far back as they come over the top and you will struggle to get to the front for the finale, without expending a lot of energy. André Greipel found that out two years ago, he was dangling off the back over the top, had to chase like crazy on the way down and in one of the last bends, lost concentration and got caught up in a crash in front of him. And then it helps if you have team-mates as you come to the finish. Last year Kristoff had Luca Paolini who made a line (geddit?!) through the final corners for Kristoff, putting him in a superb position on the finishing straight. Last year, Degenkolb had Tom Dumoulin looking after him and Matthews had the superb Daryl Impey and Simon Yates to help guide him over the Poggio and in to the sprint. 

So looking at this year's contenders then, it pays to start with men who are experienced in the race, who are able to hang in there over 290kms and sprint at the end of a hard day. It also helps as well of course if you can cope with harsh, cold and wet conditions in this race, as is often the case, but it looks like they will be lucky with the weather this Saturday and it shouldn't be an excuse for anyone. 

Alexander Kristoff has been favourite for this race ever since the first prices started appearing months ago. He was 5/1 before He started beating every one in the middle east and I had my first bet of the Classics on him back on the 23rd of January when news of Degenkolb's crash started filtering through. I thought he would sweep all before him this year and he indeed started on his usual winning streak in the middle-east, winning stages in Qatar and Oman. Since then though he has gone off the boil a little bit, not winning a race since the 21st February! Ok, he 'won' Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne after Jasper Stuyven's solo win, and 'won' the sprint behind Lutsenko in Paris-Nice, but he also was beaten by Matthews, Bonifazio and Bouhanni in stage 3 and Bouhanni, Theuns and an injured Greipel in stage 4. 

The absence of Luca Paolini will be a huge loss for Kristoff too. He was outstanding last year in controlling things at the top of the Poggio, chasing down attacks and then coming with perfect timing to the front in the last 2kms with Kristoff glued to his wheel. As it was, Kristoff probably went to the front too soon and was a sitting duck for those coming from behind. I just don't think Katusha have anyone as good as Paolini now though. Spilak is too lightweight, and some of them will not be there at the finish. He might have Morkov, Bystrom, Lagutin or Haller but I would think one or two of them max. Maybe that won't be such a bad thing and he sits in out of the wind behind others for longer, but Kristoff is a diesel engine that needs to get going from a long way out, he doesn't have the speed of a come-from-behind sprinter like Bouhanni or Ewan. I still think he has a fantastic chance though, but I'm not as keen on him as I was back in January. 

Second favourite now is Peter Sagan, ranging from 7/2 to 6/1. Will we finally see those Rainbow Stripes cross the line with his hands in the air? 4th in 2012, winning the small sprint behind Gerrans, Nibali and Cancellara, 2nd in 2013 in that snow-shortened nightmare race won in surprise fashion by Gerard Ciolek, 10th in the sprint in 2014 and 4th in the sprint last year. The course is no problem to him, but hopefully we won't see his trademark non-sensical, waste-of-time attacks that usually get nowhere these days. Four 2nd and four 4th place finishes already this year show he is in good form, but when it has come to a sprint finish he has been beaten too often to my liking to see him outsprint the best guys here. He will be involved at the finish, he may well finish 2nd again, but he's no each-way price now, except for maybe the 6/1 with PP, or maybe the 5/1 with Coral who are paying out on the first four places.

And his attitude at the press conferences today reinforced my view, sounds like he couldn't care less how it goes. It could be trash talk, but there's something about Sagan's attitude which is a bit concerning when you are backing him, the silly attacks, things like no overshoes in the TT, which may well have cost him the second that he lost the race by, the constant japing and silly games. Yes, it's just his personality, yes, he's entertaining and a breath of fresh air amongst automatons and dullards, but maybe a more serious, focused attitude is needed to get that win. 

Next is Michael Matthews, and he too is one that I have been on for quite a while, I backed him back in January too at 12/1. I thought he was unlucky last year, he got boxed in a little in the sprint behind Bonifazio, with Degenkolb keeping him pinned in on his right. When he finally got out he swung a bit wildly across the road to try his luck on the left hand side, almost taking out Sagan in the process, but did get up to land the e/w bets for us at 28/1 with 3rd place.

He has been in superb form in the limited appearances we have seen of him so far this year. Unlike all the others who started racing in the middle-east or Down Under in January/February, Matthews first appearance was in the prologue in Paris-Nice. And what a start to the season - he blew the field away in a major shock, beating Dumoulin, no less in the process. He followed that up with 5th in the first sprint, won the next sprint (the controversial one with Bouhanni trying to smash him in to the barriers), 5th in the 3rd stage and runner-up to Kristoff behind Lutsenko in stage 4. He blew up, as I expected he would, on the tough stage 5 to the Madone d'Utelle, but pottered around until the end of the race, taking home the points jersey and a lot of good training for MSR. 

He has made this his big target for the Spring, he doesn't do the cobbled Classics, and it's a big target for OGE too. He has a strong team here to protect him, with Hayman, Juul-Jensen and Keukeleire to protect him out on the course and Impey, Albasini, Bewley and Mezgec to try to steer him to a good position at the finish, if they are still there. He probably has more speed than Kristoff and more power at the end of a long, hard race than most of the others and I think he will be front and centre at the end of the race again like he was last year. He is a top candidate for the podium at the very least I think. 

Next is a rider who exploded in to the betting in the last few weeks - Fernando Gaviria. He was 50/1 only 3 weeks ago, before coming 1st and 2nd in two stages in the La Provence race, which saw his odds cut to between 25/1 and 40/1 for MSR. He then took a sensational sprint victory in stage 3 of Tirreno, beating Ewan, Viviani, Sagan and the rest on the uphill sprint. Suddenly there were reports from the Etixx camp that he was going to be the protected rider at MSR (his participation had even been in doubt up until then as he is so young) and I jumped in to get some 25/1 with Corals who are paying 4 places. His odds tumbled over the next few days to a point where he is now a shorter price than Fabian Cancellara and Greg Van Avermaet!

Can he win it? Maybe.. It's a lot to ask a young 21-year old to go out and win his very first MSR. There's the 291kms to contend with, he'll have never raced over such a distance. There's the hills, which he seems to be pretty good on to be fair, and the hussle and bustle of a chaotic peloton on the Poggio, the descent and in the sprint.. Will he cope? Well, what he won't be lacking will be confidence, or a strong support team, with the EQS squad packed with powerhouses to support him - Boonen, Stybar, Vermote, Vandenbergh, Lampaert, Trentin and Sabbatini.

Zdenek Stybar was quite agressive last year, but I don't think he'll get away either this year, so he will probably be deployed as the 'Sagan/Van Avermaet attack neutraliser' and will be looking after Gaviria at the finish. If he copes with the distance of the race, the hills, the chaos, the crashes though and arrives at the 2km to go mark with the leaders with maybe Trentin, Stybar and Vermote or Lamapert to look after him, he could well have the speed to beat all of these guys, if the sting hasn't been taken out by the cumulative effect of all of the above. 25/1 was a good bet for a shot at it, especially with 4 places, he's now just 12/1 best price, with Ladbrokes, but there's also 11/1 available with Corals paying 4 places. 

Fabian Cancellara is best price 12/1 but is generally around a 10/1 mark. As awesome as he has been this year, and even though he's a former winner of the race in 2008, I'm not tempted to back him this year. He's too short now at 12/1 or so, I think he will try, but fail to get away from them, and then he will finish 5th to 10th in the sprint, he won't be beating the sprinters. 

Pretty much the same price as Cancellara is a sprinter who I think has a good chance of winning here this year. Nacer Bouhanni is a real marmite rider - you either love him or you hate him. My feelings on him are swayed by whether I have money on him or not! He is in better shape this year than he was at this time last year, as he said himself after winning in Paris-Nice, that his form is really good. It was mid-April last year when he finally took his first win, he did it almost a month sooner this year.

It was only his first ride in MSR last year, he had been injured in 2013 and wasn't selected in 2014. He was dangling a bit last year coming over the Cipressa, but got over it along with Kristoff and got over the Poggio ok to be in the lead group coming to the sprint. I think he was unlucky in the sprint, he started from way too far back, he was something like 12th place with 400m to go, with a wall of very strong riders in front of him. When he finally did get going on the outside of Matthews, he was the fastest finisher of all of them, only narrowly missing out on a podium spot.

He said after his win in P-N that he feels he now has the missing element in place to help him win more sprints, with Christophe Laporte his new last lead-out man. He rates him very highly and he showed how good he is when he delivered Bouhanni in a perfect position to sprint away from the pack in that stage he won in P-N, beating Kristoff and Matthews in the process. I think he has a good chance of a big showing on Sunday and the 14/1 with Corals, paying four places is worth a shot.

Just a fraction bigger in the betting is Greg Van Avermaet and how good a season is the Belgian having.. It's probably no secret I'm a huge fan of the BMC man and have been backing him for years. He delivered some of his best performances of his career so far this season with wins in Omloop (beating Sagan) and in Tirreno (beating Sagan), landing the 25/1 in the process for me. I don't think this is a race for him though, regardless of how well he's going. Results of 19, 25, 36, 69 in his last four entries in the race show that. He tried to attack last year, but was a marked man, Sagan and Matthews were on his case. It will be the same this year, and I can't see him getting away, unless a split comes for some reason with 6-8 really strong guys going over the Poggio and they manage to just hold off a scattered chase group. With his biggest targets of the year coming up over the cobbles, I think this will be a good, hard training spin for him, with an attack thrown in for practice.

Edvald Boasson Hagen and Mark Cavendish are next but I can't see either of them winning it - Boasson Hagen I think is focusing on Paris- Roubaix and I see him in the same mould as Van Avermaet.. he'll try, but won't get away, and won't win the sprint, will be somewhere like 10th, where he finished last year. Cavendish is not at his best yet on the road as we saw in Tirreno, but anyway, from what I've been told, Reinardt Janse Van Rensburg is going to be Dimension Data's protected rider for the race..

I was told this a few weeks back and have backed him at 300/1 with Bet365 for a bit of fun, he's still available at 200/1. Yeah, I know it's a long shot, but if he is the protected rider and he gets over the Poggio in the front group, won't that be exciting for your 200/1 ticket?! He is riding very well too this year, taking 6th in the stage of the TDU to Victor Harbor, the one where they crest Corkscrew Hill near the finish, like a mini Poggio. 3rd in the SA TT and Road Race championships and winner of the Tour de Lankawi with a very solid week. He finished in the first chasing group last year, just a handful of seconds behind the leaders, along with Cavendish and Greipel, so he'll need to step it up this year and get over with the leaders this time to have any chance though. Hopefully he'll give us a run for our money!

Ben Swift won't be winning it, even though he finished 3rd a few years back, nor will Michal Kwiatkowski for the same reasons as EBH and GVA. Kwaitkowski was a little unlucky last year maybe, crashing on the descent of the Poggio along with Gilbert, but I can't see how he'll win it. Viviani will not get over the Poggio with the leaders, so Sky's best hope possibly rests with Geraint Thomas trying to pull off a big attack like last year again. He was superb and stupid in equal measures, doing way too much work out of the course, pulling hard up the Cipressa, then attacking away with Swift and Rowe on the flat in vain, then attacking early with Oss. If he'd had such good legs, why didn't he just save it for one big effort on the Poggio, or just before it? He's supposed to be turning to a stage race rider now, and I can't help but feel that this will be just a long training ride after success in Paris Nice.

Niccolo Bonifazio finished 5th in this race last year when just a 21-year old, something to bear in mind when saying Gaviria is too young at 21.. (Gaviria is two months older) He could well do a big ride again, but I think his chances of success will come down to how Cancellara goes.. if Cancellara is going well, it's all for him and Bonifazion may not be able to ride for himself. If Cancellara isn't feeling it (he says he hasn't been feeling well) then he could have a chance. But then there's also Giacomo Nizzolo, who is generally the same price as Bonifazio at 66/1.. He wasn't well at Tirreno though and pulled out before the second last stage, so I'm not touching him. I don't think Bonifazio will be winning either though, so not interested in him either.

Vincenzo Nibali won't be winning this race, no matter how many times he attacks, nor will JJ Lobato. Arnaud Démare was unlucky last year, he got tangled up in a crash on the Cipressa and with a broken bike he waved goodbye to the race. He is going well this year and is a rider who copes well with the distance and the climbing. If you're an Arnaud Démare fan I can't put you off backing him at 80/1 with Coral paying 4 places.

Another I like though at a big price is Lotto JumboNLs leader Sep Vanmarcke. He has been making very bullish noises this week, and has been out doing recon rides of the course (right). "I had an intense week in Paris-Nice as well. Therefore I'm going to be in good shape in Italy. I expect to be with the best on the Poggio. I want a good position where to go for a good result". Sports Director Jan Boven also added "We believe Milano-Sanremo suits him well and therefore he runs the race. He has already proven that he is in good form in recent weeks. He has shown that he is pretty quick after long rides too"

He could be one that could try to get away on the descent of the Poggio and has such a big engine on him, he would one of the few I could see getting away, or pulling a small group with him. He could also give it a go from the reduced front group in the last 2kms and solo to the finish. At 80/1 with the bookies offering 4 places or 100/1 for those paying 3, he's worth a small interest I think.

After that, lots of big priced runners. Davide Cimolai did well last year, as did Gallopin, Breschel and Roelandts. Giant-Alpecin are missing their leader and reigning champ, John Degenkolb and now today Tom Dumoulin has pulled out with a cold. They look short on options now... Simon Geschke is their designated leader, but Zico Waeytens or Nic Arndt could also be up there and sprint, but can't see them getting anything out of the race this year. Tom Boonen or Matteo Trentin could be plan Bs and Cs for EQS should Gaviria not make it. Moreno Hofland or Paul Martens could be Plan Bs and Cs for Lotto-Jumbo.

Lampre-Merida could have some outside chances with both Diego Ulissi and Sacha Modolo, but I fear neither of them will be in the first group at the end of the race. Jan Bakelants could be AG2RS only hope of success and will give it a go probably for his backers at 200/1, but I can't see him making it, and Oscar Gatto could be a good backup to Sagan should anything happen to him. 

So to sum up. The race is long, but will be ridden in good conditions, but that can't stop bad luck, crashes and mechanicals ruining your race. Generally, if anything happens in the last 30kms, you're done for.. There are a lot of riders who are in fantastic condition at the moment and you could legitimately back 10 runners in the race and still not find the winner. I can't see the early break making it, and I give a small chance of a late break making it.

If a late break makes it, we could see Vanmarcke, Sagan, Cancellara, Van Avermaet, Matthews, and Kristoff still involved. But it will most likely come down to a bunch sprint amongst a group of 40 or so riders, but again we will have Van Avermaet, Kristoff, Sagan, Matthews involved, but this could also include the likes of Bouhanni and Gaviria.

I think Matthews looks the prime pick for the race, he is in superb condition and full of confidence, and will have Albasini and Impey to help him late on. Kristoff is a likely top 3 finisher, so I'm happy with my 5/1 each-way on him. IF Fernando Gaviria is at the front coming to the 2km to go point on the flat, he could very well join the very short list of riders who have won San Remo at their very first attempt. It's going to be an exciting and fascinating last 30kms, make sure you don't miss it.

Well done to Skybet and Coral though for going four places on the race, others might follow, but if they don't it's pretty poor from them. Sign up with the link below to get £20 in free bets for a £5 bet with Corals.  

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Michaeal Matthews at 8/1 with Skybet who are paying four places (I'm on at 12/1)

1pt each-way on Alexander Kristoff at 4/1 with Skybet paying four places (I'm on at 5/1)

0.5pts each-way on Nacer Bouhanni at 12/1 with Skybet paying four places (I'm on at 14/1 with Coral paying 4 places)

0.3pts each-way on Sep Vanmarcke at 80/1 with Coral paying 4 places

0.2pts each-way on Reinhardt Janse Van Rensburg at 200/1 with various (I'm on at 300/1)

Matchbets

Vanmarcke to beat Bakelants - 2pts at 5/4 with Ladbrokes

Matthews to beat Sagan - 2pts at 11/10 with Ladbrokes

Gaviria to beat Viviani and Boasson Hagen to beat Swift - 2pts at 6/4 with Skybet

Matthews to beat EBH, Modolo to beat Nizzolo and Haussler to beat Bennett - 2pts on the treble at 9/4 with PP

This season I am also going to be naming my top ten riders to watch in some races, for the many of you out there that like playing Fantasy Cycling games. Fantasy games such as the Zweeler cycling games where you can play for cash prizes - there's a prize pool of over €1,500 for Milan San Remo this week.

Here's my ten to watch for Milan San Remo

1 Alexander Kristoff

2 Michael Matthews

3 Nacer Bouhanni

4 Fabian Cancellara

5 Fernando Gaviria

6 Peter Sagan

7 Edvald Boasson Hagen

8 Sep Vanmarcke

9 Niccolo Bonifazio

10 Greg Van Avermaet

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