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Published on Thursday, 19 March 2015 21:55

Milan San Remo 2015 Preview

Sunday 22nd March, 293Km

Milan San Remo kicks off the Classics and what a race we should have in store. The season has been bubbling along nicely, but this Sunday is what a lot of the season so far has been preparation for - 'La Classicisima di Primavera'. Alexander Kristoff comes here ready to defend his title with five victories already this season and is sure to go close again this year.  

He's not going to have it all his own way of course, and if last year's victory wasn't enough to make his rivals sit up and take notice, then his excellent start to 2015 will leave them in no doubt he is the man to watch. 

I said we should have a great race in store but the reality with MSR is that unless there is a blizzard or hurricane-like conditions, the race rarely gets exciting until the last 30kms when they tackle the Cipressa and the Poggio. 

The Race

Last year's race was won brilliantly by the Norwegian Alexander Kristoff, who held on to the leaders over the Cipressa and the Poggio and comfortably took the sprint from a frustrated Cancellara and Ben Swift. It was a real slog at the end given the cold and wet conditions, but Kristoff showed again he is one of the best when the race is long and hard. He had several bike lengths in hand at the finish. 

Luca Paolini was a huge help to him last year, looking after him on the Poggio and taking a huge pull at the front in the last kilometres to prevent any late attacks. He will be instrumental in his race again on Sunday, no doubt. 

The race was lit up on the Cipressa by none other than Vincenzo Nibali, who attacked with 25kms to go. He went in pursuit of the leaders, Tjaalingi and De Maar and flew past them on the descent. He was eventually reeled in on the Poggio but he had them worried for a while behind as his lead stretched to 49 seconds at one point. 

André Greipel was dangling off the back as they went over the top of the Poggio, only to just regain contact with 1500m or so to go, but then crashed on the penultimate bend, maybe fatigue got the better of his concentration.

Greg Van Avermaet was very prominent in the closing kilometres, even trying a little attack with 3.5km to go. It looked like he was working for Gilbert, but when it came to the sprint, it was Gilbert took it up. Van Avermaet started his sprint on the left and had a clear run when suddenly it looked like his chain slipped or his derailleur broke or something because all of a sudden he more or less stopped.. Given the form GVA is in this year, and with his much-improved sprint, as was evident in stage 4 of Tirreno when he held off Sagan and Stybar, he should play a prominent part again this year.  

Kristoff became the first Norwegian winner of MSR, and added his name to an illustrious list of winners. First run in 1907, it is known as 'The Sprinters Classic'  with the Giro Di Lombardia in the Autumn known as 'The Climbers Classic'. But as we know, it's not just sprinters win the MSR and it's not just climbers win Lombardia!

Eddy Merckx has the most wins in the race with seven, more recently Eric Zabel has won four, but famously threw away a fifth title when celebrating too early, Oscar Freire mugging him on the line. Sean Kelly has two wins, the best of which was after his breath-taking descent of the Poggio in 1992.

The Route

The route is the same as it was in 2014 - including the Cipressa and the Poggio, but without the Pompeiana that was supposed to be added last year, but was subsequently removed because of the poor condition of the road.

So it's back to the classic route again - the road leaves Milan and winds gently upwards for 140kms until the Turchino and then dives down to the coast for 80kms or so of flat racing. It should be fast though as they should have a tail wind for most of the day. 

At the 240km mark, when most races are long finished, they are only just getting to the serious part of the race. First up, the three 'Capi' - the Capo Mele, Cervo and Berta, but they shouldn't really trouble most of the peloton. With 266kms gone though they face the first big 'reducer' of the day, the Cipressa. 5.6kms long at an average of 4.1%, we should see some early attacks go and should see the peloton lose maybe a quarter of whoever's left. 

A quick descent, the descent on which Nibali caught and just flew past Tjallingi and De Maar last year and they are back on the coast again for the flat run to the Poggio. Any breakaway riders need to work extremely hard here as every second counts on the Poggio. With just over 10kms to go they start the maker or breaker of so many chances, the Poggio di Sanremo. It's not that long as just 3.7kms, nor that hard at just 3.7% average (max of 8%), but the fact that it comes after 285kms of riding that makes it tough. Once over the top it's the "kamikaze" descent, as Séan would say, back down to San Remo. At the bottom, there are just over 2kms left to the finish on the Via Roma, so not much time to get organised, it's every man for himself. 

The Weather

The riders will be happy to hear that the forecast for Sunday's race is reasonably good, with temperatures expected to be around 12-13° and very little rain expected. There might be some showers in the late morning as they head towards the coast and they could have some showers in the afternoon, but it should be a reasonably pleasant day in the saddle for them compared to recent years. 

The wind will be behind them most of the day with a North-North-East wind blowing as they head south west to San Remo. It will be quite strong at times, hitting 22mph in the afternoon. As they head back north away from the coast for the Poggio they will face a headwind on parts of it, but as they charge back downhill they'll have a tailwind again. 

It should help a break build a big margin in the early part of the race and should make it very fast in the latter parts too, possibly helping late attacks stay away to the finish. 

Course Details

Contenders and Favourites

Last year I was lucky enough to jump on Alexander Kristoff to win at 80/1 on the day that the route was changed back to being sprinter friendly. This year there were no fancy prices like that around for him, 12/1 was the biggest he has been, in early February. As Kristoff was winning the second stage of the Tour of Qatar though I decided that I wanted to be on him again. He looked so strong, so fast, so full of confidence now. I took the 10/1 that he was with Bet365, by the 12th, two more stages later, he was 4/1. 

Five wins, seven top ten finishes, Green jersey winner in Qatar, 2nd in Pari-Nice and 3rd in Oman, he has had an incredilble start to the year. The longer and harder the race, the more he likes it and he was head and shoulders (and a crooked helmet) above them all at the finish last year. I've nailed my colours to his mast early, and I'm not regretting it as I think he has a solid chance.

He comes with a strong squad that includes Kolobnev as well as Paolini to look after him in the last 10kms. There's not much value left in him now though, but Corals are going 6/1 and that's not bad - he's as short as 7/2 with Unibet. 

But he faces some serious competition this year, with a great number of riders talking up their chances and coming here in great form. Favourite with most of the bookies is Peter Sagan though and he has been shortening up a lot in the last week, following his victory in the brutally hard stage 6 in Tirreno-Adriatico, on the same day that Cavendish struggled from early in the stage and abandoned with four of his team-mates to save themselves for MSR. 

Peter Sagan had been banging on the door so much this season, it was becoming comical almost how many times he finished in the top 5 without winning (Nine times!). But it looks like he is coming in to form at just the right time. He finished 10th last year - he was in a good position with 200m to go, but not only did he look like he didn't have the legs for the sprint but he was also chopped up by Stybar who was drifting right in the sprint. Second behind Ciolek in 2013 and 4th behind Gerrans, Cancellara and Nibali in 2012, he has come very close to winning every time he has entered. He comes here with a very strong squad to look after him, with Kreuziger, Bodnar, Juul-Jensen, Bennati and Tossato and he is sure to be involved in the finish barring an accident or a break succeeding and has a favourites chance of winning for sure. 

Etixx-Quickstep come here with a ridiculously strong squad. Not only do they have a Plan A in Mark Cavendish, but they have a Plan B in Zdenek Stybar and a Plan C in Michal Kwiatkowski. They also have Mark Renshaw, Michal Golas, Stijn Vandebergh and Julian Vermote. Cavendish won this race in 2009 and that feels a long time ago now.. He is making all the right sounds this week about how much it means to him, how he dreamt about it as a kid etc but you have to be worried about his recent form. The bug he picked up in South Africa seems to have taken more out of him then he is letting on.

Up until then though he was flying - after taking a few stages to find his feet in San Luis, he really started to fire, culminating in a great win in KBK when he outsprinted Kristoff quite easily. I think he could be in the leading group coming to the line, but whether he has his full strength or 'explosiveness' which he admits has been missing lately to win, I'm not so sure. 

If he is on a bad day, then they could fall back on Stybar and Kwiatkowski. Zdenek Stybar has been riding brilliantly lately, taking a great win for us in Strade Bianche a few weeks back. He finished 7th in this last year, but he was in a brilliant position in 4th wheel coming through the tricky final bends, but he was looking all around him to try to see where Cavendish was and when the sprint started he lost a few places and slipped in behind his team leader and followed him to the line. With a year's more experience and the confidence of his win in Strade Bianche he should do better if put in that position this year. He has the power and the strength to even try to go long and stretch things out for Cav, so he's one to watch out for too. 

Michal Kwiatkowski showed in Paris Nice what great form he is in and was very agressive in the penultimate stage to Nice when he took it to the Sky boys repeatedly, with his agressiveness helping him to a podium spot in 2nd place. The World Champion won his stripes with an attack at the top of a climb and a charge down the descent to the finish, a little bit like what could be needed to win on Sunday you could say!

He has done a recon of the course and declared during the week that he 'loves the descent of the Poggio!' He is definitely one to keep an eye on as they approach the top, if he gets 10-20" he could well charge down to the finish, there are just over 2kms to the finish once at the bottom after all. They could play the 1-2 with Cav sitting in - who will take up the chase if teams are light? Katusha and Tinkoff-Saxo will have to. At 33/1 he could be a 'back to lay' bet on Betfair - that is, back him at that price, hope he goes on the attack and then put up a lay bet at odds of something like 5/1 and hope it's taken to give you a free bet in case he gets caught!

John Degenkolb and Fabian Cancellara are both available at best price 14/1 and a case could be made again for both of them. Degenkolb started the season well with a superb, if surprising victory on the Hatta Dam in Dubai, but since then he has been a bit disappointing by his standards. Second twice behind Lobato in Andalucia, 3rd behind Greipel and Demare in Paris-Nice, he hasn't exactly been firing on all cylinders in the sprints lately. On the rolling, hilly stage to Nice of Paris-Nice he finished over 26 minutes down, but he didn't have a lot to race for to be fair.. 5th in 2012 (2nd in the bunch sprint behind Sagan), 18th in 2013 and 39th in 2014, he seems to be going backwards! To be fair though he suffered a puncture last year at a really bad time, he could well have been involved in the sprint otherwise. If it all clicked for him on the day though and his team stay close enough to look after him at the finish, then he is well capable of a top 5 again, his strength at the end of a long hard day like this should serve him well. He may even make the podium.

Fabian Cancellara has an amazing record at this race, as he has in almost every Classic! Winner in 2008, 2nd in 2011 to Matty Goss, 2nd in 2012 to Simon Gerrans, 3rd in 2013 and 2nd last year again. Out of the six times he has ridden it, he has finished on the podium 5 times! He comes in pretty good form, his defeat of favourite Adriano Malori in the Tirreno TT shows how good his legs are. With the finish being more sprinter friendly this year though, you'd think he will have to go early, perhaps on the Poggio. Even Nibali knows this, he was quoted as saying “Cancellara’s another who might be in contention in a sprint but he can’t rely on it. He’s ‘Cance,’ he could go from distance, no problem. Did you see how he was riding?”. And I think that's what he will have to do but I don't think it'll succeed. With so many quality sprinters in the race he might find himself squeezed off the podium, but he is 'Cance' - you just can't rule him out.

Orica-GreenEdge come here with big ambitions and plans, with Michael Matthews leading the team in their bid to follow in the footsteps of Simon Gerrans in 2012. Matthews is coming in to good form right in time too, winning a stage and taking the Green Jersey in Paris-Nice. Matthews has done the race twice before but was never in contention, but he was only 21 when he did it for the first time in 2011!

He should be strong enough to stay with the front group without too many problems you'd think and it may be that his squad is one of the most numerous as they hit the last 2kms on the run to the line to lead him out. They may just come charging by everyone else as they are all scrapping for Kristoff or Sagan's wheels and deliver Matthews to the front with 200m to go. Matt White is a shrewd operator and has picked a strong squad to support him with Hepburn, Clarke, Impey, Hayman, Durbridge and Mouris. I think they could have 3-4 guys in the final 60 or so that comes to the finish. Daryl Impey could be one for a late attack on the Poggio too to make the others chase, if he gets away with a small group he could win from the sprint. 

BMC are targeting the race too and have two strong candidates in Philippe Gilbert and Greg Van Avermaet. Philgil will have to attack on the Poggio and either go solo to the line or with a small group of poorer sprinters than him to win I think. It's a huge target for him though and his whole year so far has been a build up to it, including his long breakaway effort in Stage 3 of Paris-Nice when he took the KOM Jersey. He will be active but I can't see him winning. 

Greg Van Avermaet has been in great form, his win in Arezzo being the highlight of his year, possibly career so far. He was excellent in Strade Bianche too, almost winning. He will have to attack late too or hope to be in a small group of 10 or less to be in with a chance of winning I think, he won't win a mass gallop. Wyss, Quinziato, Oss, De Marchi will all be there to stretch things out for him though and they might just burn off some sprinters. 

Juan Jose Lobato is in great form this year too, winning the uphill sprint to Stirling in the TDU and two stages in Andalucia, including the tough uphill finish on stage 5. He has been training specifically for this, skipping PN and TA to train.. he even did 285kms behind a motor pacer a few days ago, apparently at an average of nearly 44kmph! He was 4th last year but wobbled around quite a lot in the sprint, he was absolutely on his knees at that point. Can he step up this year and take a podium spot? It's certainly possible, he was very close last year. There were some massive prices available on him at the start of the year when he started winning, I know there are some of you out there on him at prices as big as 200/1, good luck with that!

Alejandro Valverde makes a surprise appearance at the race, hard to know what he will do, difficult to see El Ego working for his team-mate, but you'd never know, he has a long season of ambitions that he could need help with. 

André Greipel was available at 66/1 with Boyles who are paying four places for the race, and that was snapped up by some eagle-eyes earlier, he is now best priced 40/1 with them. He could have a chance of being involved in the sprint but he really struggled last year and was dropped just at the top of the Poggio, only to just get back on with about 1500m left, but as he was at the back of the pack he got caught up in the crash. I think he might struggle again this year, the likes of BMC, Katusha and OGE will make sure that the pace is super high over the top and he could be in trouble. 

Nacer Bouhanni hasn't ridden here yet, two years ago he was injured, last year he was not selected.. So it's hard to know how he'll go Sunday. He has got the power to stay with them over the climbs you'd think, but will he be able to do it after 285kms? I'm not so sure. Tony Gallopin landed a nice result for me last week in Paris-Nice with his great win in Nice, and he clearly is in great form. I wouldn't be surprised to see him fly off the front as they hit the 8% parts near the top of the Poggio, and we know how great he is at descending, he could have a chance at a big looking 66/1 with PP and Skybet. 

And there are loads of others who could get involved - Gerald Ciolek, a former winner of this race comes here in good form after his 2nd place to Sagan in Stage 6 at the TA. He looks a big price at 66/1. His team-mate Eddie Boassen Hagen could try a late attack, he is 80/1. Heinrich Haussler, Arnaud Démare, Sacha Modolo, all could be involved, or what about Sonny Colbrelli (6th here last year) - he is 100/1! Ben Swift is a massive looking 50/1 if he can repeat his podium performance from last year. He has been riding ok this year so far, with a 2nd and a 3rd place finish.  Sam Bennett rides his first MSR and he is a massive price at 150/1, but I fear he may not make it to the finish. Sylvain Chavanel could try a late attack on the descent, he's also 150/1!

Cimolai, Costa and Pozzato are all in good form and could be involved, Cimolai's sprint in Paris-Nice to beat Coquard and Matthews was very strong, could he be their leader Sunday? He is 100/1 with Boylesports. Ian Stannard, Nibali and Navardauskas are all 100/1 - Nibali has said he wants to try to blow the race apart.. let's hope he makes it exciting!

So, how do you pick a winner from that lot? It's very hard - the weather could change, bad luck could take riders out of it before the business end, a break could make it and spoil the sprinters plans. I think though that there will be 40-50 riders might make it to the finish to fight out the sprint. The weather forecast says it will be a good day, but there could be some showers along the way.

I think it might come down to who has the most strong riders left in front with 10kms to go to look after and deliver their men to the finish. I think Tinkoff-Saxo, Katusha and BMC will have 2-3 men each but I think we could be hearing Séan get very excited by the 'Ulreeka GreenHedge' train as 3 or 4 of them appear pulling Matthews in to position with 1km to go. I think Alexander Kristoff wins again, but Michael Matthews and John Degenkolb will be close behind him. I don't think Cavendish, Greipel or Bouhanni will make it with the front group but Cancellara, Lobato, Swift, Van Avermaet and Stybar could make the top 10. 

Kristoff continues to come in for support and is best priced 5/1 now. Michael Matthews is a big looking 28/1 with Bet365, if you don't have an account with them, click here to open one now and get a 100% deposit bonus up to £200!

Recommendations:

I have 2pts win on Alexander Kristoff at 10/1 with Bet365, I'm having another 1pt each-way at 5/1 with Boylesports

0.5pts each-way at 28/1 on Michael Matthews with Bet365

0.5pts each-way on John Degenkolb at 14/1 with Paddy Power

0.3pts each-way on Tony Gallopin at 66/1 with Skybet

Matchbets

Oscar Gatto to beat Grega Bole - 2pts at 10/11 with Bet365. Both seem to be in form, Bole in the best form he has been in for a while, including taking 5th in the GP Nobili on Wednesday, one place ahead of Gatto. Gatto has been in good form recently too though, with a strong 6th place in Strade Bianche. Gatto's overall record in this race is better than Bole's too and that swings it in his favour for me. 

Scarponi to beat Nibali - 1.5pts at evens with Bet365. This was a tough one to call, but I think Nibali will be looking to break things up near the finish, will probably attack on the Cipressa, maybe on the Poggio.. last year when he did that he had nothing left on the Poggio and came to a stop almost. It could be the same this year, whereas Scarponi will be shrewd enough to try to just hang in there for the sprint so may just get dragged to the finish in the lead peloton.

Kristoff to beat Sagan - 1pt at 4/5 with Paddy Power. If I'm backing him to win, then this has to be backed too I think. Even if someone like Cavendish gets the better of Kristoff, I still think Kristoff will beat Sagan. And he is 8/15 with Bet365 so 4/5 is far better value. 

Chavanel to beat Dumoulin - 2pts at 8/11 with Paddy Power. Chavanel is pretty consistent in this race and Dumoulin tends to do better later in the year, I think Chava will be in the front group, Dumoulin could be tailed off. 

Rojas to beat Boeckmans - 1pt at evens with Paddy Power. Boeckmans may be in great form at the moment but his record over 200kms and especially over 220kms+ isn't very good at all. I think he will struggle towards the end, whereas Rojas could be still in or close to the main group at the finish. 

Watch here and on Twitter for updates closer to the off also.