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Published on Thursday, 09 January 2014 18:34

Australian Road Race Champ'ship

Buninyong, Ballarat - 183.6km 

Welcome to my first cycling betting race preview of 2014! I must admit I did fancy Luke Durbridge for the Australian Nationals Men's Time Trial on Wednesday morning but wasn't interested in the early prices of around 4/11... But then Paddy Power went 4/6 and I couldn't resist it.   

As it turned out the bet was turned over by 20/1 shot Michael Hepburn who beat Durbo the Turbo by 11". Not even a freak 'hurricane' knocking 2nd favourite Rohan Dennis off his bike could save the bet! That was despite Durbo leading at every checkpoint along the way bar the last. I believe he was 30" behind at one stage so put in a super-strong last half.

Speaking of Dennis, He was sporting those extraordinary POC TT helmets that Garmin are wearing this year (see left!) for the TT which made him look like some sort of alien.. So I wrote the following tweet below, addressing Rohan (he had described the wind that hit him as a 'whirly whirly' in an interview I had read earlier..)

I think I know what happened @rohandennis, it wasn't a 'whirly whirly' but the mother ship trying to beam him up.. https://t.co/leMd0CVO7u

— Ian (@Cyclingbetting) January 9, 2014

To which I got a pretty quick reply of the following:

@Cyclingbetting good joke

— Rohan Dennis (@RohanDennis) January 9, 2014

Now it's hard to know if he was being sarcastic, or if he genuinely liked my joke, but I'm going to take it as the latter and think he shared it with all the lads at the dinner table later! Anyway, he said in that interview that despite losing quite a bit of skin all over he should be ok for the road race Sunday.

On to the race then and I must warn that picking winners this early in the season is fraught with danger as there is so little form to go on. Also, there are not many bookies pricing it up so it's hard to compare value and take advantage of mis-pricing.

The Course

The race this year is being held in Ballarat in Victoria, just over an hour north west of Melbourne. The race is over 18 laps of a 10.2km rolling up and down sort of course with the first 3km going uphill from the flag drop up Mt Bunninyong road, followed by 3km on a flattish plateau before descending for nearly 5km down the steep, narrow winding descent of Fiskin Road. The last kilometer though is pretty straight and levels out more or less for the last 500m. 

The climbs come in very quick succession, the first averaging 6.4% for 1.4km and the second, which start less than 500m later is also 6.4% average over 1.1km. The climbs are neither steep enough nor long enough to really cause any damage to the big favourites, but they are sure to see attacks go early, probably even on the very first lap and teams like Orica Green-Edge are going to have to keep things under control for their main men. It does look likely though that it will come down to a bunch sprint, how big that bunch will be though is hard to say.  

Contenders and Favourites:  

There's quite a large field taking to the starting line for the race this year, with no fewer than 154 riders taking to the starting line (full starting list is available here). There really are some class riders in the field too, with former winners Durbridge, Gerrans, Bobridge, Meyer, Lloyd and Lapthorne all taking to the start line, along with TT champ Hepburn and Crits champ Van Hoff.

The field also includes Cadel Evans for the first time in 9 years and other stars such as Richie Porte (who skipped the TT to focus on this), Michael Matthews, Simon Clarke, Matt Goss, Matthew Hayman, Adam Hansen and my friend Rohan Dennis, showing just how strong Australian cycling is right now. Most of them have appeared on the podium in one place or another over the last few years. 

Looking at the field and the style/quality of riders it is very hard to pick out a clear favourite. And that is the way the betting is reflecting things too, even though it is only Paddy Power who have priced up the race as of Thursday afternoon, so fair play to their cycling trader, who must be looking like the hero in there after Durbridge got beaten in the TT!! But we'll try to get some back off him this weekend anyway. 

Just edging favouritism is Michael Matthews at 5/1, followed by Gerrans at 6/1 and Goss at 8/1. Hard to argue with the three of them at the top of the betting, with Matthews 2nd last year to Durbo, but improving markedly as last season went on, winning two stages in the Vuelta and the Tour of Utah. 'Bling' is confident ahead of the race and has the climbing ability to not be troubled by the hill, coupled with a devastating kick that could take him to victory, and if it comes to a sprint finish then he is strong favourite. **Edit** The Canberra Times reported early Sat morning that Matthews could be forced to miss the race due to a back injury, nothing confirmed as of 11.30am though. 

Simon Gerrans had a fantastic 2013 too, with 4 wins (and the TTT and holding the yellow jersey in the TDF) and the 2012 winner of the green, gold and white jersey is sure to feature prominently Sunday too. I am worried though as to whether he is at 100% given he broke his hip in September, and even though he says he is ok, I'm going to steer clear of backing him at 6/1, at nearly 34 years old, the body doesn't heal as well! I should know, I've been injured since September!

Matt Goss next, and although he won stage 2 of the Bay Crits just last week, this is going to be a whole different ball game altogether. I think he will be working for Matthews and Clarke, so again at 8/1 I think I'll steer clear of him. 

Instead, the other two riders I am interested in are Steel Van Hoff at 10/1 and Simon Clarke at 14/1. First Van Hoff - a powerful sprinter who hails from Mornington in South Victoria, he won the National Crits jersey on Thursday with a canny ride. I can see him and his Garmin team having to watch every move that OGE and Drapac make so they are not left out of a race winning break with those two teams in it, but when it comes to the business end if it comes to a bunch gallop Garmin can ride the Drapac and OGE battle a little and Stainless is pretty good at doing that as he proved in the Crit. Also don't forget his two top tens in the Tour of Britain, with his 3rd place showing his supreme bike skills after Viviani almost brought him down. I think he could sneak in to the OGE train and pounce late and at 10/1 I think he is an ok bet for the top 3. 

Secondly as I said, I like Simon Clarke at 14/1. The 27 year old from Melbourne should have plenty of fans on the road, being only an hour from home and the former U23 champion should be right at home on this course. At only 63kg, the former KOM winner of the Vuelta should be very comfortable on the climb and will be offered protection I think by OGE. He will be watched a little less I think than Matthews, Goss and Gerrans and that may well be a tactic OGE will look to exploit. 7th in the Worlds last year, he may well launch an attack on the last lap and has the power to hold off the pack if they start looking at each other for someone to chase.  

Others? Apparently Cadel has been training hard in Oz for quite a while and is in good shape, and the course should suit him with a power climb and fast descent. He could be an 'outsider' that can win from a small group but I think he is getting on too much to be putting himself under heavy pressure this early in the season. Richie Porte has a great chance too but I think he will be watched too closely and OGE will not let him get away, and he will not win a sprint. The Drapac squad have the biggest team there (13 riders to OGE's 12) and they have some good riders in former champ Lapthorne (25/1), Jonathan Cantwell (25/1), Will Clarke and Travis Meyer and although they will be mob-handed I'm not sure they will out-fox or out-muscle OGE.

Bobridge will be smarting after losing the TT title but I don't think it's a course for him, and same goes for Dennis. 2008 Champ Matthew Lloyd can't be ruled out either and will be looking to impress his new Jelly Belly team. He'll be on his own in the race but that didn't stop him from taking 2nd last year. At 50/1 he could be worth a poke each way. Cam Meyer apparently opened around 50/1 and is now trading at 9/1 so clearly he is fancied by some. Some Aussie's told me on Twitter that Jack Anderson is flying and will be mixing it up on Sunday too, so watch for him at a big price. (thanks @nicodonnell)

So there you have it. A cracking race in prospect, one I believe is live streamed on SBS.com's Cycling Central site (not sure if it will be geo restricted) in the early hours of Sunday morning and one worth setting an alarm clock for. Lots of riders in with serious chances so small bets recommended given the lack of form guides to go on, but my recommendations are:

Small win bet on Matthews at 5/1

Each Way Bet on Van Hoff at 10/1

Each Way Bet on Clarke at 14/1

If you do want to have a bet, make sure you open an account with Paddy Power using this link to take advantage of their £50 free bet offer!