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Published on Saturday, 13 February 2016 23:06

Clasica de Almeria

Almeria to Almeria

Sunday February 18th, 184kms

The Clasica de Almeria is the second of the one-day races taking part this weekend, with the Vuelta Ciclista Murcia being won by Philippe Gilbert today, outsprinting Valverde and Zakarin quite easily in the end. The Murcia race is one for the climbers and puncheurs, but the Clasica de Almeria is one for the sprinters.

Mark Cavendish won in a sprint last year from JJ Lobato and his team-mate Mark Renshaw. JJ Lobato also finished 2nd in 2014, beaten by an up-and-coming sprinter named Sam Bennett. It's a mostly flat race with a few dips inland and over some Cat 3 climbs, but the last little climb comes 35kms from the finish before a flat run along the coast and back to the finish. 

The Route

They start in Almeria and head out along the coast and after around 25kms they turn inland and after 50kms they go over the first little climb of the day at the Alto de Los Atajuelillos (Cat 3). Back down to the coast again for 40kms of flat roads and just after Adra, with 95kms gone they turn inland and go over two Cat 3 climbs in 20kms. A quick descent back down to the coast again and back over the same roads for a while but this time they go straight on at Balanegra along the coast, with a quick detour inland for the Alto Cuesta de Almerimar which they crest with just 32kms to go.

The final run to the finish is flat and runs close to the coast, before finishing in Roquetas de Mar. The last kilometre is dead flat and pretty straight, perfect for a sprint finish. 

Contenders and Favourites

It's highly likely that this race will end in a sprint so it's worth only considering the sprinters when looking at the likely winner. There's no Cavendish or Bennett here this year, so can Lobato finally land the win? They will have been disappointed with the result today when Gilbert beat Valverde in Murcia, these races are important to the Movistar team. They have a strong team here again, with Valverde again taking to the start line, along with Javier Moreno, JJ Rojas and Rory Sutherland. 

Cofidis probably have his biggest danger in their ranks, with Nacer Bouhanni taking to the startline of this race for the first time. He started his season with a 2nd place in the Trofeo Playa de Palma two weeks ago, he was no match for André Greipel though. He followed that with a 4th and another 2nd in the Volta la Comunitat Valenciana, beaten by relative sprinting unknowns in Dylan Groenewegen and Raymond Kreder. They would have been disappointing results for him and the team but this is an ideal opportunity for him to get off the mark for the season.

Caja Rural have a decent sprinter in Carlos Barbero, and the Spanish team will be looking to get him in the mix tomorrow. I thought he would do well in the GP Cycliste la Marseillaise and he finished 4th in the bunch sprint for 3rd place. He finished 11th in 2013 in this race but seems to have taken his sprinting up several levels since then and I think he can finish in the top 6 here. 

IAM Cycling's Matteo Pelucchi started the TDU but had to abandon in stage 2. He came back to Europe early and rode in the Etoile de Besseges, and he took a good 2nd place behind an impressive Bryan Coquard on stage 2 but was well off the pace in stage 1 when he finished 15th, on another stage won by Coquard. I think he will be top 6 but possibly not podium. 

I mentioned the impressive Bryan Coquard above, well he comes here with a top chance of taking another victory after two wins in the Etoile. He was down to ride in the Murcia race today, but didn't start it, and that was probably a wise decision given how it turned out that it was a puncheurs finish with only four riders finishing in the lead group. He's got a decent team here with him with Chavanel, Pichot, Gene and Petit. I think he could be the biggest danger to Lobato and Bouhanni and at what I'd imagine would be a decent enough price I think I'd rather be on him than the other two. 

BMC have the same team as rode in Murcia, meaning that Gilbert leads the line again, I don't think he is in the same league as the better sprinters here though. After that there's a whole bunch of smaller teams with chances, but I don't think they'll be winning this. Raymond Kreder from Roompot could be an outsider that could go close though.

For me, Coquard looks to be in great form and looks a likely winner of this. Bouhanni should be close and I think Lobato should possibly podium too. But once again the useless bookmakers have decided that they couldn't be bothered pricing up the biggest race on this Sunday. It's pathetic really - a bit of research like above and you could make a book easily. Kirolbet the Spanish bookmaker have shown that it can be done, they have once again priced up a race that the UK and Irish bookmakers haven't bothered. They go 2/1 Bouhanni, 5/2 Coquard, 4/1 Pelucchi, 5/1 Lobato. They also have Kreder at 17/1 and Barbero at 24/1. At the prices, I'd be on Coquard win and Barbero e/w, but unfortunately you can't open an account with them from outside Spain. 

Meanwhile, they have also priced up the Trofeo Laigueglia which is taking place in Italy and that lumpy course looks perfect for Diego Ulissi, he's their 3/1 favourite. Grega Bole is 2nd favourite and he's in great shape at the moment too, having won the GP Costa degli Etruschi last Sunday - he's 5/1.  

Correction! I'm happy to say that Skybet have priced up the market! Thanks to Alfie, Blake and Mark for the heads-up on Twitter! They hadn't done the Murcia race so I assumed they hadn't done this either, they were the only bookie I didn't check. So, looks like they have copied Kirol's prices pretty close, but are a lot shorter on Lobato, who's just 3/1 with them. They have Coquard at 5/2 though and Barbero at 28/1 and they took a little of my money for an interest. Kreder is very short with them at just 12/1 compared to 17/1 with Kirol. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Bryan Coquard at 5/2 with Skybet

0.25pts each-way on Carlos Barbero at 28/1 with Skybet

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