Details: Published on Tuesday, 06 January 2015 21:13

Australian National Road Championships

The Australian national championships take place from Wednesday the 7th to Sunday the 11th January in Balarat, Victoria,west of Melbourne. Although the championships consist of a diverse range of events, I'm going to take a look at the Elite mens TT and the Elite mens Road Race as they are the only races with betting odds available.

Proceedings kick off on Wednesday the 7th with the U23 Criterium and the Elite Criterium, followed on Thursday the 8th with the Time Trials and conclude on Sunday with the road races around the 10.2km circuit in Buninyong, the same circuit as in 2014.

Elite Mens TT

Thursday 8th January, Buninyong, 40.9kms

hepburn-aussie-nationals The Time Trial is over an out and back course over 40.9kms, starting and finishing in Buninyong. It's a completely different course to last year's race, unlike the road race which is racing over the same circuit. As it is an out and back circuit, the profile is a mirror image of itself, with the riders starting out with a downhill opening 9kms or so, followed by a climb for about 2kms up Hardles Hill Rd, followed by a descent to the 16km point where they start climbing again up to the turning point on Gumley Rd. Doing it in reverse on the way back means that it is mostly uphill for the last 15kms or so, rising gently all the way to the finish.

The Favourites and Contenders

Rohan Dennis was second favourite to win this last year but was incredibly knocked out of the race by a freak tornado-like gust of wind, or a "whirly whirly" as he called it. He is the very short priced favourite though this year at just 8/15 to gain compense for that misfortune. That might seem like a ridiculously short price given the talent behind him in the betting, but he does look the most likely winner. But as we saw last year with Luke Dudbridge, being odds-on favourite doesn't mean your a certainty! He is looking forward to it though:

"With my track record of the last two years I haven't had the best of luck in January, so I'm a little reserved in saying I'd be the one to beat, but for me the time trial is the most important."

This is a far more lumpy course than they tackled last year though with the climb up the Hardles Hill road and the long drag to the finish too. It means the likes of Dudbridge and Hepburn will not be able to go as fast as they would on a flatter track and it brings the likes of Richie Porte in to the equation too. But Dennis is desperate to make up for last year and is desperate to make up for all the 2nd places last year too.

Luke Durbridge, who had won it for the previous two years, opened around 4/11 last year, but Paddy Power went 4/6 when they opened and I backed him at that. He led at every checkpoint along the route bar the last and had a lead of 30" at one point but still lost it to Michael Hepburn, who blitzed the final section. If Hepburn can repeat that sort of finish and keep the power up on the uphill final part he should go very close again.

Jack Bobridge did well to finish 5th in the Road Race last year, but in general was pretty average in TTs last year. Mick Rogers struggled in longer TTs last year, finishing 14th and 107th in the Giro trials and 78th in the TDF ITT. He may find the going a little tough here too.

A dark horse to watch though will be U23 World Time Trial champion Campbell Flakemore, riding for the first time for BMC. His closing section in the World's last year was sensational, grabbing the victory by less than a half a second from the unlucky Ryan Mullen. That was over 36kms of a similarly lumpy course and he is bound to be going flat out to try to impress on home soil in his first big ride as a pro. He may lack experience of the older guys and is stilll a relative unknown, but that performance in Ponferrada was very impressive and he may offer a value outsider at 25/1.

Only 43 riders are down to take to the start ramp, the full start list and the order of departure can be found here.

Recommendation:

Rohan Dennis looks the likely winner but 8/15 is too short. Unfortunately Paddy Power are the only bookie out with prices by Tuesday night and they are not offering each way betting at the moment. I'll wait to see if Bet365 or someone else comes out with prices before Thursday and maybe make a decision by then, but so far it's a no bet, I'll update this again closer to the off.

Update 22:00, 07/01 - a pretty poor showing from the bookies for this race - Paddy Power inexplicably pull the market around 12 hours before the start and told me that they would not be putting it back up but a trader would get back to me 24-48 hours from now with some prices (that is for a race that starts in about 3 1/2 hours time... nice one Paddy.

Bet365 are even worse, they haven't priced it up at all. BetVictor are the only bookie with prices available, and they are 4/6 for Rohan Dennis and I recommend you take that if you can get anything on with BetVictor, it's a better price than PP were anyway at 8/15. Richie Porte can make the top 3 and Campbell Flakemore could surprise a few and take a top 5 place.

2pts win at 4/6 on Rohan Dennis with BV

Update 2! 22:50 - Paddy Power have woken their trader up and they have put their prices back online and they have Dennis at 4/5, and that is better obviously than BV's price..

Route Map

Aussie-nationals-TT-Map

Elite Mens Road Race

Sunday 11th January, Buninyong, 183.6kms

Last year's road race championships saw an elite trio of Gerrans, Evans and Porte slip away near the finish, with Gerrans always the most likely of the three to win it. Of course he won't be there to defend his lead as he broke his collarbone in training accident just before Christmas, but Evans and Porte are lining up to try to take the gold, white and green jersey.

With Cadel Evans bringing an end to his illustrious career on Febraury 2nd, what more fitting way to finish off than with a win at the Australian Nationals, going one place better than last year. Cadel knows he is up against it as he ackowledges he is probably the most marked men out there.

The Route

The race is over 18 laps of a 10.2km rolling course, with the first 3km going uphill from the flag drop up Mt Bunninyong road, followed by 3km on a flattish plateau, before descending for nearly 5km down the steep, narrow winding descent of Fiskin Road. The last kilometer though is pretty straight and levels out more or less for the last 500m.

The climbs come in very quick succession, the first averaging 6.4% for 1.4km and the second, which start less than 500m later is also 6.4% average over 1.1km. The climbs are neither steep enough nor long enough to really cause any damage to the favourites, but last year when the field were tiring after 17 laps it had blown apart with only about 30 riders left of the 154 that started. Then as they hit the climb for the final time, the cream of the elite, Porte, Evans, Gerrans and Meyer got away and stayed away from the rest. Cameron Meyer had done a great job for Gerrans, attacking and playing the carrot up the road, forcing Evans and Porte to chase, and still came home 5" back in 4th place.

155 riders are scheduled to start, the full startlist can be found here.

The Favourites and Contenders

The betting has Richie Porte at the top of the market at 3/1 (It is only Paddy Power currently out with prices though) followed by Evans at 7/2, Meyer at 5/1 and Caleb Ewan at 6/1. It's all pretty tight though with Van Hoff and Bobridge at 12/1, Durbridge at 14/1 and Simon Clarke at 16/1 and you have to go to the 17th rider, Travis Meyer before it jumps from 33/1 to 50/1.

Porte has a seriously good chance this year I feel - the word from Down Under is that he is in great shape and is ready for this. He of course suffered a lot from illnesses in 2014, but finished his season early in August to try to recover, starting on a course of antibiotics which seem to have cleared up whatever was ailing him. He says he is in the best shape he has been for a long time and that is an ominous warning to other guys who may not be quite as in the zone at this point in the season as he is.

With Gerrans out of the way it makes things a lot easier for him of course, he was forced to do a lot of chasing after Meyer last year and had nothing left for the sprint. I think this year he will put a huge dig in up Mount Buninyong Road and may well leave them all behind. He will have to get quite a gap though if he wants to go alone to the finish, as Orica Green-Edge are sure to have a number of riders who will go in chase on the descent towards the finish, along with Evans more than likely. He is being backed a little too, he is in to 3/1 from the 7/2 he was over the weekend

Cadel obviously has great motivation to do well in his last race, but I have a sneaking feeling he would rather do better in the TDU and in his Ocean Race than to take a jersey that he will not be wearing for the rest of the season. Apparently he has been doing a large amount of corporate work in the past weeks and it may just have taken the edge off a little. He should be right up there at the finish though, but if Porte goes hard he may not be able to go with him. He has gone out a little from 3/1 he opened at to 7/2 now.

Cam Meyer could well be the OGE team leader now seeing as Gerrans is out and Matthews has decided not to ride it, especially given his strong ride on this course last year. He has a big engine but we won't get to see what sort of condition the legs are in a few days beforehand as he has chosen not to ride the TT. But as he showed when winning that stage in the Tour de Suisse from Phil Deignan last year, he is one tough competitor. He has had his supporters too, coming in from an opening show of 7/1 to 4/1 now, quite a big move.

caleb-ewan-bay-crits Caleb Ewan has been flying in the Bay Crits last weekend, winning the first three races and taking the overall victory from Greg Henderson who soloed to victory in the 4th race. He will have the strong OGE team around him but I fear he might be found wanting on that final time up the hill as the pressure really comes on. It will be interesting to see who OGE work for and whether they will be making that decision out on the road depending on how the race pans out. He has drifted a little though to 6/1 from 5/1.

Steele Van Hoff is a rider I like and I backed him last year at 10/1, he is 14/1 this year but was as big as 18/1 when the market opened. I'm annoyed I missed the 18/1 on him now although he went as low as 12/1, but I think he could step up this year and if he can stay with the leaders or close to them up the final climb he would be one of the best sprinters in the race, especially if they have managed to shake off Ewan. A fact he has just proven by retaining his National Crits championship title by beating Caleb Ewan in a sprint finish, with Scott Sunderland back in 3rd.

After that it really is a lottery - the likes of Adam Hansen, Mick Rogers, Simon Clarke etc would probably have to go long and try to stay away, something I think will be very hard to do. The likes of Nathan Haas, Heinrich Haussler, Luke Durbridge and Zak Dempster are all talented riders and on thier day could win this, but they would need breaks to fall right for them I think. Drapac have lots of riders in the race again and will probably shake things up early on but I can't see many of them being involved at the finish.

I'll make my final selections closer to the time, will wait to see if other bookies price it up to see if there are some more attractive prices worth taking. If you fancy Van Hoff, maybe take some 14/1 as that might shorten today now.

Recommendations:

Come back closer to the date for my recommendations - I know who I want to back but will wait to see if better prices come available.

Update: 08/01/2015, 21:45 - well Richie Porte is indeed in great shape - too great! He came from 32" back on Dennis, who led at the half-way point to win by 8" in the Time Trial last night. He is still 3/1 though for the Road Race, which is interesting.. what has the TT taken out of him? Will he be able to cope on his own against the OGE boys and the rest? I think he will and have backed him tonight with Paddy Power. I can't see any of the other bookies sticking their necks out, they'll all duck for cover with him now. I'm still thinking about others, but PP have told me they will not be offering each-way betting on it which is very disappointing again. Looks to me like they've lost their cycling trader or he is away skiing at the moment or something..

Update 10/01/2014, 23:00: There's a big difference in the prices of Mick Rogers, 13s with Bet365 and 25s with BetVictor, 13s is very short though, 25s is about right. Cadel Evans has his supporters too as he is in to 7/2 from 4/1 with Bet365 and PP. Simon Clarke is fancied too by some and is as short as 10/1 but I'm not so sure, it's been a long time since he crossed the line with his hands in the air. Instead I think Cam Meyer has a good chance of a top 3 place at 7/1 e/w with Bet365 and Steele Van Hoff is worth a small bet e/w at 16/1 with BetVictor if you can get on. I'm going to stick with Porte for the win though - there was a slight worry that the headwind they face on the run in might work against a lone breakaway, but he showed in the TT that he is in superb shape and very strong at the moment. If he gets away he might just stay away.

Recommendations:

Richie Porte - 1.5 pts win at 3/1 with Paddy Power (is available at 7/2 with Bet365)

Steele Van Hoff - 0.5pts e/w at 16/1 with BetVictor

Cam Meyer - 0.5pts e/w at 7/1 with Bet365 (was actually 8/1 by the time I published this and put my bet on, even better!)