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Published on Monday, 17 September 2018 21:36

World TTT Champs

Innsbruck, Austria

Sunday 23rd Sept, 62.8kms

Sunweb caused quite the shock this time last year when they beat the hot favourites Sky, QuickStep and BMC with a stunning performance driven on by Tom Dumoulin, who also became the World TT Champion just a few days later. 

That's two years running we've had a hot favourite beaten, with QS beating 4/7 favourites BMC 12 months before in the heat of Doha. It was a very different course and conditions to Doha for last year's race in Norway, but the sun shone bright and Sunweb shone even brighter, beating odd-on favourites Sky by 22".

QS were also a big disappointment, not even making the podium, with BMC and Sky beating them home. It wasn't a great start to the World's for me having backed them speculatively for win and place, nothing went right that day and almost put me off TTTs for life..! Luckily we got some of it back on Dumoulin in the ITT a few days later.. 

Since the World's TTT was re-introduced in 2012, QuickStep had won the first two, then BMC the next two, so QS were delighted to take their crown back off the men in red and black in 2016 and were confident of keeping it last year. Instead, it was a new name on the list of teams that have won the top prize in team time trialling. Dumoulin showed just how powerful he was that week by also going out and winning gold in the individual time trial, beating Primoz Roglic by almost a minute. 

There are six of the World Tour teams who have decided not to go to the World's though, because of the prohibitive costs. It was said that it can cost up to €40,000 to send a team there, money that a lot of teams just don't have. And a lot of them especially didn't want to pay it when they knew they didn't really stand a chance against the top powerhouses, who wants to pay to get humiliated? EF Cannondale Drapac whatsit being one of the teams who have not sent a team.. 

This is the last year that the TTT for UCI registered teams will be organised at the UCI Road World Championships though. The UCI, together with its stakeholders, is currently examining alternative options and from 2019, with the collaboration of the Yorkshire Organising Committee, the UCI will introduce a new format showcasing National Federations and their riders. 

The Route

It's a monster distance this year for the TTT, at 62.8kms it's over 20kms longer than last years course, and in fact is the longest in the last seven years since the TTT was reintroduced. The average for the last three years is just 40.43kms, meaning this year's race is almost 50% longer! It's also one of the longest TTTs that any of these guys will have ever taken part in, so we could see some weird results.

They start in Ötztal, in the Area 47 district, and after a small little climb in the opening kilometres it's more or less downhill for the next 36kms or so as they roll down and along the Inn valley. Then as they reach Zirl they turn right and immediately start climbing from Kematen up the side of the mountain overlooking Innsbruck. The climb is 4.6kms long and averages nearly 5.7%, with parts hitting 13%, but is generally pretty steady.

At the top, after they pass through Axoms there's a little dip and a small pull up to Gotzens, followed by a fast 5km descent, where they could hit speeds of up to 100kmph. From the bottom of the descent it's a flat run in to the centre of Innsbruck. But as they approach the town, they shoot off left and go around the airport, rather than going straight to the finish. They then follow the river along the left bank until the Kettenbrucke Bridge where they turn right and sprint back towards the finish in front of the Hofburg Imperial Palace. 

Contenders and Favourites

Team Sunweb are the defending champions after a stunning performance last year, led by the machine Tom Dumoulin. He is supported by quite a similar team to last year, with Soren Kragh Andersen, Michael Matthews, Wilko Kelderman and Sam Oomen all back in the team again this year. The only difference is the young Lennard Kamna has been replaced by the experienced Chad Haga, arguably a better time triallist. 

Last year SKA was the only one with a bit of experience of this, having taken part in 2016, this year they have one of the most complete squads from last year. I, like many others, totally underestimated them last year, I didn't understand why they were 10/1 3rd favourites, I really thought that the mixture of inexperience, youth and TomDum possibly saving himself for the ITT would see them struggle. 

But they absolutely smashed it, starting strong and getting stronger as the race went on, there was unity in the team and power all the way through it. Can they repeat that feat this year though? Well considering they have arguably a stronger squad this year, with Matthews in flying form after two wins in Canada, Kelderman after riding in to a top 10 on his return to action in the Vuelta, and SKA having finished 3rd, 5th and 2nd in the TTs he's done this year, then it's easy to see why they've been made 10/11 favourites again. 

Their results in TTTs this year hasn't been spectacular though.. A team with MM, TD, SKA and CH in it in the TDF finished down in 5th on a 35.5km course, although to be fair it was all incredibly tight at the top with only 11" between Sunweb and the winners, BMC. Also in Tirreno, a team with TD, SKA, WK and CH in it finished 5th again, this time 25" behind BMC. In the TDS, WK, MM and SKA were in the team that finished 2nd, again to BMC, losing by 20" over a flat 18kms.  

BMC were not happy to lose out on the chance of completing a hat-trick of wins in 2016, and they had said that winning it back was one of the highest priorities of the season last year. That didn't exactly go to plan, but they are back for another shot at it this year with Rohan Dennis leading the squad again, and they'll be hoping he's in better form than last year when he struggled in the TTT and also in the IT a few days later. 

Dennis has been in superb form in the Vuelta of course, well in the TTs anway, we didn't see a single glimpse of him in any of the other stages. But he did his job, won the opening prologue, hid away for two weeks, then smashed the opposition in the TT on stage 16 and went home the very next day.. 

He's joined by powerhouses in Stefan Kung, Greg Van Avermaet, Miles Scotson, Tejay Van Garderen and Damiano Caruso and they are sure to be in contention fighting Sunweb for the win. Van Garderen, Kung and Scotson were in the team in the TOB though that disappointed way down in 6th place, that course contained the climb of Whinlatter pass too of course. 

Kung has been a bit hit and miss this year in ITTs, but in TTTs he has won every race he's entered, bar the TOB TTT, winning at the TDF, TDS, Tirreno and Valenciana, and also won ITTs in TDS, the Binck Bank and the Swiss Nationals. But he also was off the pace in the Tour ITT and Tirreno where he was way down in 28th. 

Scotson, TVG, GVA and Caruso are solid, but not spectacular when it comes to Time Trials, but when they come together as a unit they are very slick, smooth, and very, very fast. Kung, TVG, GVA and Caruso were in the TTT team that won the TDF TT, and Dennis and Scotson are too pretty solid additions. That was over just 35.5kms though, how will they fare on a longer course?

Well Dennis and TVG were on the winning BMC team in 2014 in Ponfferada, that was over 57kms, there's not a lot of other TTs of this sort of distance to judge any of these guys from really. I think that on a longer course like this BMC will do better than a shorter course, they are excellent at putting a team performance together, and the longer the course, the more important that becomes as you try to hang on to your stragglers for as long as possible.

One thing that I worry about for BMC though is the possible lack of motivation and unity considering the team is disbanding and they're all going their separate ways at the end of the season.. But the possibility of finishing the year as a World Champion is surely more than enough motivation for them to give it one last big blast!

Team Sky are missing two of their stalwarts for an event like this in Chris Froome and Geraint Thomas, both of whom were in the team who finished 3rd last year. Froome and Thomas have both decided to not go to the World Champs, they both seem to have been on holidays since the end of the Tour, plodding their way around the TOB a few weeks back. 

They have a weaker squad here than you'd expect then, but they still have some strong TT'ing ability in it, led by Jonathan Castroviejo and Vasil Kiryienka.

Castroviejo has come out of the Vuelta where he finished 3rd (same time as Rosskopf in 2nd) and 7th in the two TTs there, and just prior to that almost won the Euro TT championships, losing out by less than a second. So you can expect a big ride from him again, especially as he's not doing the road race, it'll be all in for the two TTs here. You know that he won't mind the hill at all in the middle, and he was 4th in the 53km Worlds in Richmond in 2015, 32" ahead of Dumoulin.

Vasil Kiryienka has been quite up and down with his TT performances in recent years, since becoming World Champion three years ago. This year has seen him win the Belarus TT title again, but the best result besides that was 3rd in the 19km TT in Itzulia. That year he won in Richmond though was the long 53km TT, he tends to go better the further a TT goes. 

Michal Kwiatkowski was brilliant in the Tour de Pologne, but went off the boil after that and just plodded around the Vuelta, trying to get in breaks but failing more often than he succeeded. I think he will be completely focusing on winning the Road Race next week and I'm not sure he'll be giving this 100%. They also have Gianni Moscon with them, a man in form at the moment and someone who has come in for sustained support for the Road Race all week after three very impressive rides in Italy. He's not a brilliant time triallist though and was dropped last year after struggling for quite a while.

The last two men on the team are Ian Stannard and Owain Doull, and they are two passengers as far as I'm concerned. Yes Stannard is strong, but he's done almost nothing of note all year, and he'll be the first to get dropped, probably pretty early on. And Doull just isn't at the top level needed to help them win this. I think they will have a battle on their hands to even finish on the podium, despite being 3rd favourites at just 9/1. 

QuickStep Floors in their various nomenclature over the years have won this title in 2012, 2013 and 2016 and finished 2nd in 2015 and 3rd in 2014. So the 4th place last year will have hurt them as much as it hurt me.. Can they bounce back to form this year on this extremely long course? 

They have named a very strong squad for this, as you'd expect, with Niki Terpstra leading the team, a rider who has ridden all seven of the World TTT championships since its reintroduction, and a three-time winner. He hasn't been in great ITT form of late but he does seem to do better when part of a TTT squad, winning in Adriati

ca Ionica and coming 3rd in the TDF TTT over 35kms and 4th in Tirreno-Adriatico. He did finish 2nd in the Dutch TT champs which was a bit of a surprise beating Kelderman and Van Emden, and that was over 52kms. He has power and stamina for long tests like this and is a great team leader. 

He has Yves Lampaert with him who has been in reasonably good TTing form this year, missing out on the Euros podium by just 3". He's also had some poor performances along the way though in TTs, but he more than showed his strength and power on the road with a number of good performances this year. 

Bob Jungels is another big engine for this team and he recently showed his form and power by winning the Luxembourg road and ITT titles, then finishing 6th in the long TDF TT. He almost won the TTT in the TOB, only being beaten by LottoJumbo in the end. He is a massive powerhouse on the flat, he can climb pretty good, and you know he'll be pushing a 56 tooth chainring down that descent with them all hanging on for dear life behind. 

Kasper Asgreen, Laurens de Plus and Max Schachmann complete the lineup. Kasper Asgreen is a very good, if yet unheralded TT'er, he finished 10th in the 2nd TT at the Vuelta and finished 4th and 2nd in the Danish TT champs for the last two years running. He also was in the TTT team for QSF that won in Adriatica Ionica earlier in the year.

Max Schachman has also been riding extremely strong of late, finishing 4th in the German TT nationals and 3rd in the Euro TT champs, and he finsihed 8th and 15th in the two Giro TTs. He will add a lot of power to this team too. Laurens de Plus is also very strong, finishing 8th in the Vuelta 32km TT just recently and also finished 4th in the Belgian TT championships. They seem to have quality all through the team and to me look a better bet for the top 3 than Sky at 6/5.

Katusha Alpecin could be a dark horse for this, they have some very strong guys and guys in form, they almost pulled off a major shock in the TOB TTT, taking the lead briefly until LottoJ and QSF passed them at the death.. Tony Martin needs no introduction, winner of the German ITT title again this year and finishing 2nd in the 2nd ITT at the Tour (over 34kms). He'll be going for individual TT glory too, but I expect him to be giving it everything in this too. 

Alex Dowsett has been riding well lately and has put in some decent TTs of late, but he's more a man for a shorter course of 15-20kms. Nils Politt is another big, solid German machine and has been banging out the big watts all season, just failing to hang on to Ian Stannard when finishing 2nd in stage 7 of the TOB recenty. He was in that team too that took 3rd in the TTT, along with Martin, Dowsett and Mads Wurst Schmidt. 

MWS is another very solid TTer, he won the World's U23 TT title in 2015 (and the Danish U23 title). It might seem that he hasn't really kicked on from there in terms of producing top class TT results, that you might expect from a former World Champion, but he has developed in to a very good all-round rider instead. He did finish 13th and 14th in the Giro TTs this year though, so he isn't that bad.. 

They are joined by Nathan Haas and Reto Hollenstein, two solid, but not brilliant time triallists. Haas looks to be in good form though following two good rides in Canada. They form a very solid unit, but I'm a little worried about the hill, don't think any of these guys will enjoy the hill particularly. But if you're looking for an outsider at a big price, they might surprise at a huge price of 50/1 and 4/1 for the top 3.

LottoNL Jumbo were as short as 7/1 last year for this, and despite what looked like a quality lineup with Van Emden, Campanaerts, Roglic, Boom, Clement and Van Hoecke they disappointed down in 7th, some 1'20" down on Sunweb. They had finished 5th in 2016, just 1" behind Sky in 4th with Kelderman, Campanaerts, Roglic and Van Emden in that team. I suspected the hilly course would work against them, and indeed it looked like that was the case, I guessed 4th to 6th, they were even worse than that. 

This year's team sees a much weaker line-up in my opinion, with no Victor Campanaerts or Roglic. Yes JVE is a powerhouse, but he'll not like that hill in the middle, and Leezer, Bouwman, DVP, Powless and Roosen will not be pulling up any trees along the way either. I think they will struggle as it is, but could lose lots of time on the hill, they could well be down around the 7th-10th sort of place for me again. 

Movistar looked to have a strong squad here last year, with a line-up full of all-round powerhouses. I expected them to go better than their sixth place in 2016, but where did they finish? Only in 6th again. The year before they had mechanical issues for Castroviejo, last year there seemed to be no excuse, they were just slow, 1'19" slower than Sunweb in fact. 

Their team this year looks a lot weaker than last year's though, they've lost Castroviejo to Sky. They still have Andrey Amador, Jasha Sutterlin and Nelson Oliveira to drive it along, Oliveira has just come out of the Vuelta where he finished 4th in the first and 7th in the second 32km TT. Jasha Sutterlin is a real powerhouse too

But the rest are just making up the numbers in terms of TT power, although as a unit they might climb the hill part faster than most with the backbone of Sutterlin, Oliveira and Amador, so they should have enough to beat LottoJumbo in their matchbet I think.

Mitchelton-Scott I didn't give much chance to last year and they finished down in 5th, 43" behind Sunweb. It's a very similar lineup to last year's and as a result I don't think they'll be near the top 3 either this year. 

Astana have a pretty average team here on the whole again, lots of solid guys but no real TT machines. They're not going to trouble the podium, they are 750/1 for a reason, but will be interesting to see who they are put up against in the matchbets. Trek, Bora Hansgrohe and the rest will huff and puff, but they won't be breaking any doors down, none of them will trouble the podium. 

It is very close then between 10/11 favourites Sunweb and 11/10 BMC, a 52.3% chance of winning versus a 47.6% chance of winning... Pros for Sunweb - reigning champions, Tom Dumoulin, confidence, unity, the hill. Cons - not many.. Pros for BMC - Rohan Dennis, Stefan Kung, history, experience, their bikes.. Cons - possible disunity with the team being disbanded, Bevin, Caruso, the hill.

So Sunweb marginally shade it, but it could be very close. I'm going to have a win bet at hopefully around evens when the amatuers at Betfair finally get around to setting up the market, but I think QSF will not be far behind and I'm backing them to finish in the top 3. And as I think Katusha could surprise I'm also having a small nibble on them at 4/1 to finish top 3.

Recommendations:

2pts win on Sunweb at 10/11 or better on Betfair

2pts on QSF to finish in the top 3 at 6/5

0.5pts on Katusha to finish in the top 3 at 4/1

Matchbets

Katusha to beat Mitchelton-Scott - 3pts at 8/11

QSF to beat Sky - 2pts at 6/5

Movistar to beat LottoJumbo - 3pts at 4/6