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Published on Friday, 23 August 2013 15:44

Other cycling betting tips for the Vuelta

I have tried to look around some of the other markets for bets that interest me, and have outlined some of the better ones below. Stay tuned for in-play analysis and betting tips though as the race progresses.

Winning Team: 

This competition is a little unusual in that it is not the combined times of the best riders on GC added together that decides the prize, rather it is the times of the 3 best placed finishers on each team, each day added together. So if Astana have three riders high up on one stage but a totally different three riders high up on another stage their times added together would put them up the leaderboard on the team prize.

With that factor taken in to consideration, then is is easy to see why Team Saxo-Tinkoff are the clear 5/4 favourites.

With Kreuziger, Roche, Majka, Sorensen and Zaugg in their ranks they are sure to post some good finishing times on most stages. Kreuziger should be right up there with the top 6-10 on each stage and Majka, Roche and Sorensen will be top 15 contenders on most of the lumpier stages so they should do well.

Second favourites are Euskaltel-Euskadi at around 3/1 and in their swan-song grand Tour they will be going all-guns blazing to leave their mark (and put themselves in the shop window!). With Sanchez, Anton, Nieve and Landa in their ranks they should also fill lots of higher placings on the hillier stages. I'm worried that it might all fall apart for them from a team competition point of view though if they try to go on lots of long range attacks or jump too early on the summit finishes, possibly blowing up and losing valuable places and time. For that reason I am leaving them at a short 3/1..

Next up is Astana around 7/2 generally (4/1 with Bet365) and with Nibali likely to score highly on most stages (including the ITT) then you can see why they are also pretty short in the betting. Add in the power of Brajkovic, Grivko, Iglinskiy and Fuglsang and they should be capable of a top 3 finish in the team prize. It seems that there aren't any bookies offering e/w betting on the team prize, which is a shame, as they would be a great e/w bet at 4/1 as you are almost certainly guaranteed to get your money back at the very least, with a free shot at the 4/1 winner.

Movistar are next, but are also around the 4/1 mark (that is 4 teams not that are 4/1 or shorter!). They were my pick for the TdF team prize at 3/1 I think, and luckily I had traded out at 2/5 before their disaster with Valverde's mechanical on stage 13. It is a different team they have here though, no Quintana or Rui Costa for example, but they still have a strong squad in the likes of Lastras, Capecchi, Intxausti and Szmyd. They may just fill 3rd spot behind Saxo and Astana.

Others: Ag2r La Mondiale are next around 14/1 followed by Sky at 20/1 but I feel these two teams are too light to make enough top 15-20 places to move to the top of the standings. Yes, Betancourt and Pozzovivo and Henoa and Uran will be up there most days but after that they might struggle for consistency. 

Top 10 placing:

Not much value knocking around in these markets as they are all pretty short prices, but if I was to plump for some odds against shots I would pick the following:

Bauke Mollema - 7/5 with Bet365 - consistent performer who should be able to finish close to the top 10 on most hillier stages and may do well also in the TT. 

Michele Scarponi - 15/8 with Boyelsports - another consistent performer who rode really well in the Giro to finish 4th and also took a 3rd place in the Volta a Catalunya so has form on Spanish roads this year too. Might be a tough ask with some of the brutal stages ahead, but he is resolute and solid and may well land that 15/8.

Daniel Martin - 10/3 - This is a course that Martin should like and I can see him taking a stage along the way. He rode well in the Tour until a virus hit him. He is capable of taking a top 10 as long as he stays healthy this time around and at 10/3 it's not a bad price to take.

Some Match Bets:

A few match bets that took my interest

E Boasson-Hagen to beat Meersman in a points jersey match bet @ 9/10 with Bet365. EBH should be in the mix in a lot more stages than  Meersman I think, and in fact I wouldn't be surprised if Meersman didn't make it all the way to Madrid..

Rodriguez to beat Valverde in a points match bet at 17/20 for various reasons I mention above.