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Published on Wednesday, 20 August 2014 17:13

Vuelta Favourites & Contenders 

Battle Royale in the mountains of Spain!

What a treat we have in store at the Vuelta this year. We get to see the showdowns that never happened this year at the Tour - Quintana Vs Froome and Contador or even just Froome Vs Contador! With only Vincenzo Nibali missing from the line-up, we are seeing, on paper at least, some of the world's best grand Tour riders go head to head for victory at the Vuelta.  

I say 'on paper' we have some of the world's best GT riders because there are a few doubts hanging over two of the main participants. Chris Froome is only coming back from injury, not having raced since he crashed out of the Tour on the 9th July and Alberto Contador is too only making his comeback after crashing out on stage 10 on the 14th August.

Of the two, Contador's was the most damaging as it was a leg injury, but there have been plenty of sightings of him training hard around Lugano in recent weeks, even sightings of him training when he and his team were claiming he was in no state to do so!

The favourite of course is Nairo Quintana and he comes here having won the Vuelta a Burgos last week with impressive climbing and impressive time trialling. He looks race fit after having spent his summer in Colombia training at altitude following his win in the Giro on the 1st June. 

But the quality of the line-up is staggering - Former winners Alejandro Valverde, Chris Horner join former winner Contador. Tour winner Cadel Evans. Thibaut Pinot, Tens Dam and Zubeldia who finished top 10 in this year's TDF. Paris-Nice winner Betancur. Giro top ten finishers Aru, Kelderman and Hesjedal. Dauphiné winner Talansky. Add in Dan Martin, Barguil, Dennis,  Moreno and Sanchez and you can see that this is a supremely talented lineup we have this year, which should make for super agressive and exciting racing. 

A quick look at the prices as we stand just 3 days before we start stage 1 in Jerez.

As you can see it's pretty tight at the top of the betting and if you took the best price for Quintana (2.2) and the worst price for Froome (2.5) there isn't much between them at all. Best price for froome though is 2/1 (3.0) so shop around if you fancy him. Let's take a look at the merits of each of the runners then and weigh up their merits from a betting point of view.  

Nairo Quintana - Movistar, 6/5 Favourite

A very short price at just 6/5 and only slightly bigger on Betfair at 5/4 when I started writing this mid-week. But there are very good reasons the bookies are running scared of him. Stylish winner of the Giro from Uran and Aru, he proved he had a ruthless streak necessary to win big races when pushing hard on the descent of the Stelvio to distance former leader Uran on Stage 16. Since the Giro he has returned back to the Andes to train at 3000 metres and he proved in Burgos that he is fighting fit with a stage win, 2nd in the time trial and the overall GC victory. 

He comes here with a super strong team behind him in Movistar too. It's going to be interesting to see what sort of race Valverde rides, will he do his own thing or work for Nairo? I think it took a lot of debate and compromise for Quintana to forego the Tour de France this year so I expect Valverde to tow the line and work. Along with Valverde they have Javier Moreno, Erviti, Malori, Herrada, Izagirre, Castroviejo and Amador. There's enough firepower there to do a respectable TTT and he should be well looked after in the mountains. 

He has early chances to take advantage if he has good race fitness over those that may not (Froome and Contador) with the uphill finishes to stage 6 to La Zubia, but it will be in the last week when the tough mountainous stages come thick and fast that he will be in his element. With time bonuses available for the stage winners and the possibility of a few stage wins for him in this race he should be able to put some time in to his rivals on a number of stages.

Depending on how his time trialling is over the two ITTs he may do enough to hang on to his climbing gains. He can be hit and miss in time trials, but he did finish 2nd in Burgos TT last week which on the face of it is very encouraging, but a look down the top 10 shows he didn't exactly beat much - the fact Dani Moreno was only 3" behind him should give you an idea of the strength of the competition!

As long as he can get enough of a lead in the climbs to be able to hold off the likes of Froome in the TTs then he should be right there at the front of affairs. He is a 5 Star favourite in my mind and will be very hard to beat. As I was about to publish this though on Thursday night he had been pushed out to closer to 6/4 after a bit of support for Froome and that was heading towards a backable price to have a first nibble at. 

Chris Froome - Team Sky, 2/1 (15/8 on Betfair)

With the amount of Time Trial miles in the race you'd ordinarily have to make Froome favourite. Between the two individual TTs over a total of 46.4kms Froome should be able to put a minute or more in to Quintana. In the Tour last year when they met Quintana lost 1'11" over 32kms to Froome on a lumpy course. In the Pays Vasco the same year though he only finished 17" behind Martin in 2nd place over 24kms. In the Tour of Britain over 16kms he lost 1'35" to Wiggins. Clearly Froome's TT skills will play a big part in how well he does in this race, but the question is, how many TT miles has he been able to do since the crash? Has he been able to hold TT bars in a tuck position, as that would put a lot of pressure on his fragile arms which are trying to heal!

Of course, it's not just the TTs he excels in, we all know how good he is on the climbs too, and ordinarily you'd think he'd be able to handle most of what Quintana can throw at him. In the Tour's second last stage last year though, when Quintana went, he had no response. With the lack of racing miles in his legs though and the injuries he sustains, will we see a Froome at 90% of his best? 100%? I don't think he can be 100% with the interruption to his season, he may claim to be back training hard in recent weeks but that must have taken a lot out of him mentally, as well as physically. He would not have been able to really pull hard on the bars for quite a while with fractures in both wrists/hands so it's hard to say just how fit he really is. 

Sky are sending a good team here though, even if they are after leaving out Porte and Wiggins. Cataldo, Diegnan, Nieve, Rowe, Kennaugh, Kiryienka, Siutsou, Knees- they are all top quality riders who will be good support for him in the mountains. I'm particularly looking forward to seeing Phil Deignan after his excellent Giro and his 7th place in the recent Tour of Poland. He has fond memories of the Vuelta following his top ten finish and stage win while riding for Cervelo in 2009. 

It's a race he has done well in of course in the past with 2nd place in 2011 and 4th in 2012. He could start well in the TTT, should take some time out of everyone in the first TT on stage 10, and should take some time out of them in the final TT. The question is, how good will he be on the climbs when the likes of Quintana, Contador and Rodriguez are whizzing off the front? I might wait and watch some of the early stages and make a decision then, as I am not 100% sure he is 100%! He's a 4.5 Star favourite for me and depending on how well he copes with Quintana in the hills he could well take it because of his TT skills.

There is a small arbitrage opportunity right now as you can back him at 2/1 with the Tote and lay him at 2.9 on Betfair. Interestingly Froome was backed from 11/4 in to 7/4 on Betfair as if the word was good on his form but then he popped back out to 5/2 again as if someone heard something else, and on Thursday before the race money came for him again, forcing his price down to near 7/4 on Betfair. 

Alberto Contador - Tinkoff-Saxo, 9/1 (12.5/1 on Betfair)

Just 40 days after fracturing his tibia in a crash on stage 10 of the Tour Contador is going to take on one of the toughest races in the calendar. Hard or foolhardy? His decision or Oleg's? Who knows, but it adds an extra dimension to this race we didn't expect. After some bad news updates a few weeks back when he tweeted he had a set back because of an infection - 'No Vuelta' he claimed, and that was followed by numerous positive and negative updates. Apparently he wasn't training hard but then was spotted on a number of occassions training on climbs near Lugano where he lives. Note to Alberto - if you don't want people to recognise you, don't go out training in a full Tinkoff-Saxo kit!

Then he came out on a video update just this week saying that he had been training well for the last ten days and has been able to climb for the first time without a pain in his knee and that's why he has decided to race. He has claimed though that he is only after stage wins and that he will not be competing for the GC. More likely though he is going to keep sponsors happy and to prepare for the World's and the end of season races. With that sort of doubt hanging over his head it's hard to make a strong case for him here at only 9/1, and that is why we see him being pushed out to prices around 14/1 on Betfair when only 9/1 with the bookies, people seem prepared to take him on.

If he does come here with better form than might be expected then we could well see him light it up on a few of the mountain stages. If he is going stage hunting it will be interesting to see when he goes for it - early on in the race or in the last week. If he is well out of it on the GC come the last week he may well be left off the leash a little bit more than in the earlier part of the race when maybe others are still worried about what condition he really is in. I think stage 6 to La Zubia will be when we know what sort of condition he really is in, as the last 3.5kms average 11%, terrain that should normally be his sort of hunting ground.

I'm only going to give him a 3 star rating though as there are too many doubts, I just can't see how he can come back after a broken leg and win this.  

Joaquim Rodriguez - Katusha, 8/1 (13/1 on Betfair)

No stranger to good results in this race, Purito has finished 6th ('08), 7th ('09), 3rd ('10), 3rd ('12) and 4th ('13). Winner of 8 stages in total also, he knows what it takes to win on his home roads. He has focused his entire year on this race, using the Tour de France as a prep race for it, when he didn't quite seem himself. Finishing in 54th place was probably not in the plan heading in to the race, but the writing was on the wall when he rolled past us on Oughtibridge in a groupetto around 10 minutes down on only the second stage. 

From then on he went hunting the KOM jersey and nearly got it, just fading on too many stages towards the end to claim the big points. He just seemed to lack stamina and the killer punch but still showed signs of his agressive, never-say-die attitude. The signs that he was using the TDF as a training race started to become a bit clearer when he rode an excellent race in the Clasica San Sebastian just a week later, attacking impressively on the final climb, and for a while distancing Valverde and Nieve before they came back to him. 3rd on the day was the best result he has had in a while and tees him up nicely for a shot at this. 

He should be a big danger on some of the stages, where his punchy, attacking style will pull him clear of some of his rivals. He could well do enough to take the red jersey after stage 6 if he can put in a big dig, it's his kind of finish, averaging 11% for the last 3.5kms. His achilles heel though is his time trialling and he will lose a minute plus to Froome over the TTs. He should be close enough to Quintana but I think Quintana could well take 20" or more off him over the two TTs. 

I think he is a strong candidate for a top 5 placing and could well win at least one stage. I just don't think he is good enough to beat the likes of Froome and Quintana. A 3.5 star favourite that should offer some opportunities to back him for stage wins along the way. 

Alejandro Valverde - Movistar, 25/1 (55/1 on Betfair)

Alejandro Valverde finds himself in a strange position for him, playing second fiddle in a team at a Grand Tour. With Quintana leading the team, Valverde's role of support rider will be interesting to watch. Will he give it 100% and ride his socks off for him every day? Will he attack when he shouldn't? Or will he be the model super-domestique and help his team-mate to victory. 

He led the team in the TDF but was disappointing, looking exhausted in the final week, being no match for Nibali, Majka and co. when they went for it. He even lost 3rd spot on the podium with a disastrous final TT where he finished 4'28" behind Martin, but more significantly, 1'16" behind Pinot who usurped him on the 3rd step. It did look though, like with Purito that he was riding himself ready for Spain, and that bore rich reward just a week later with a canny, powerful ride to win the Clasica. 

He is not good enough anymore to match Quintana, Froome and Co. on the big climbs and will lose stacks of time in the TTs again so I think 5th-10th is the best he can hope for. There may be a stage or two in there for him though, especially in the final week if he has lost enough time from pacemaking/getting dropped and if everyone is watching Quintana for the GC, he might just be able to slip away to put them under pressure and has the experience and skills to know just when to go. 

Unless he turns up in supreme form though and Quintana falters, I can't see him winning this, or even podiuming (is that a word?!) but he may be good enough for a top 10 and a stage win or two. The fact he is 25/1 with the bookies (as short as 16/1!) but 55/1 on Betfair speaks volumes, those with a bit of balls are taking him on. 

Rigoberto Uran - Omega Pharma Quick Step, 33/1 (33/1 on Betfair)

The enigma that is Uran.. Where can he finish? 2nd in the Giro to Quintana, but he lost the jersey to him after being distanced when Quintana attacked on the descent of the Stelvio, and Uran in the confusion decided to put on a rain jacket thinking the descent was neutralised. He lost 4'28" that day and I'm sure he is bursting to take Quintana on again and try to settle that score. He rode two excellent TTs in that Giro, winning one surprisingly and finishing 3rd on the other on the hill climb to Cima Grappa. 

He didn't race since the Giro finished on the 1st June until the Tour de L'Ain last week and although he finished 4th in the very short prologue behind three team-mates, when the road went uphill he struggled, losing 4-5 minutes to the likes of Bardet, Peraud and Martin on the hilly stage 4. It looks like he hasn't got his climbing legs in as good shape as they could be but he could well ride himself in to fitness in the reasonably easy opening week. He could start well with a big TT from OPQS in the TTT, which could give him a few seconds buffer for if he does slip back on some of the hillier stages in the opening week. 

It's hard to know where he stands, and that's reflected in his price I think - no-one is prepared to take him on on Betfair as he is the same price as with most of the bookies. He really could flop badly and be out of it in the first week, or he could come here with reasonably good legs and get better as the race goes on. I just don't think he has the class or the power to get away from the likes of Quintana and Froome though and may have to settle for a good top 10 placing, maybe even top 5. 

Fabio Aru - Astana, 33/1 (48/1 on Betfair)

Here, I agree again with the Betfair market - I too would be around 50/1 rather than 33/1 on the young Italian. Yes, he did magnificently well to finish in the top 3 in the Giro, but you'd have to say those that finished behind him were not exactly of the calibre of Contador, Froome and Rodriguez! He was 4'04" back on Quintana and I can see a similar time gap, if not worse this time around. If so, chances are that there will be several riders in between him and victory. 

He returned to racing after the Giro in the Tour de Pologne at the start of August but it was a disaster, finishing in 64th, almost 25 minutes down, losing time on nearly every stage, starting on stage 1 when he lost more than 10 minutes. If he turns up here with those kind of legs he may not even make it to the finish. If there was a top 10 market on Betfair I'd be tempted to lay him large!

Chris Horner - Lampre-Merida, 25/1 (65/1 on Betfair)

A huge discrepancy between his price on Betfair and his price with the bookies, I think the bookies are just scared he turns up again this year and pulls off a massive shock, as he was backed last year at prices around 80/1. I can't see it happening myself, and I'd be happy to lay 25/1 all day long.

Horner road the Tour as a training race too in preparation for a defence of his Spanish crown, and although he seemed to ride solidly and steadily, he was never really involved. 17th place was still respectable though and a result of just solid consistency rather than anything spectacular or impressive. In fact, the only thing he did that looked a little bit special was when he attacked on the Hautacam, only for Nibali to spectacularly brush him aside, after which Horner was dropped from the group.

He went back to the States to train though and took a good 2nd place in the Tour of Utah two weeks ago, with again, solid rides on the big mountain stages being his trademark. He was no match for Tom Danielson on Powder Mountain but showed that his prep is going right. I think though that his solid, steady climbing is a result of a lack of the top power he had this time last year and with no explosive response in his locker any more it seems, he could well be left behind again when the fast attacks come. His TT wouldn't be the best in the world either so I think he could finish 5th to 10th again, closer to 10th than 5th. Can't see him winning a stage either. 

Wilko Kelderman - Belkin, 80/1 (150/1 on Betfair)

The 23 year old Dutch man is becoming a fans favourite for his gutsy riding and was a fancied runner for the Criterium du Dauphiné following his good showing in the Giro when he finished 7th in the GC and took a bunch of top 10 finishes. 5th in the opening TT of the Dauphiné, only 11" behind Froome boded well but the time he lost to Talansky on the hilly stages 7 and 8 were enough to cost him victory. He did finish in a very impressive 4th place though, thanks to being part of that Talansky escape group that ultimately decided the race. 

Since then he also took part in the Tour Of Utah where he managed 5 top 10 finishes, including a 2nd place on stage 7 behind Evans and a 4th place on stage 6, finishing ahead of Horner. He trained at altitude in the States while he was over there and feels that he is ready to ride a big race at the Vuelta. It shows the standing that he now has in the team that he comes here as joint leader with Gesink and Ten Dam and indeed is less than half the price of the former GC golden boy at Belkin, Gesink. Gesink is coming back from injury though and rode well in the Tour of Poland, considering, and has been training at altitude in the States also. They have also been working hard on their TTT apparently and are hoping to get off to a good start in the race. Tens Dam is a fantastic lieutenant to have on the road and will work his legs off in support of Kelderman. 

Kelderman has said that he has learned a lot about riding a GT after the Giro, such as how to save energy, and was very please with his performance in Utah, where he felt he was unlucky not to win a stage, getting mugged by the experience of Cadel Evans. He is no match for Froome's Time Trial but he should put in a solid showing on the hilly stages and if everything fell in to place for him he could well finish in the top 5. He could be a real dark horse in this race and the 80/1 might just be worth nibbling at.  

Andrew Talansky & Dan Martin - Garmin Sharp, 80/1 and 66/1 

I'm coupling these two as they are on the same team and could well decide who is leader by their actions on the road. Bizarrely, the numptys who make an effort every now and then at Betfair to load up cycling markets haven't even listed Talansky, but have got Bradley Wiggins in the lineup.. Hesjedal is there though and he could be a third card for G-S to play in this race. Martin is 100/1 on Betfair though. 

Talansky was a canny winner of the Criterium du Dauphiné this year, taking advantage of the stand-off between Froome and Contador to get up the road and put enough time in to them to take the overall victory. He rode very well in that race and came in to the Tour hoping for a big race. That was all shattered though with a crash damaging his back and causing him so much pain that he wanted to abandon on stage 11. He completed the stage in tears though but abandoned before the next stage.

He hasn't raced in over a month and it's hard to know what sort of form he will come here in. Garmin are sounding confident in him though, but I'm not so sure.. I think he will lose too much time to the likes of Froome in the TT's (in Romandie he lost 49" to Froome over a similar type of course, but half the distance) and he will also struggle when the fast guys go as he is a bit more of a diesel engine.

To me, Dan Martin is a far better bet to give us a bit of excitement over the next three weeks. He has said himself that he is in the best shape he has ever been in and is just bursting to go out and try to make up for his Giro calamity. He rode steady in his comeback stage race at the Tour of Austria and then stepped it up a level to finish in 3rd at the Tour de L'Ain, with particularly impressive performances in stages 3 (3rd) and 4 (2nd) where he showed lots of strength and guile. 

I think he could have a great race here - he is fresh, he hasn't raced much and is clearly in good shape. With question marks around Froome and Contador and Valverde and Rodriguez coming out of hard tours he could well find himself one of the strongest men in the climbs. With Talansky and Hesjedal and Cardoso they also have cards to play in order to help Martin make the right attack for stage victories which could catapult him up the GC with the time bonuses. His weakness though will be his TT and he will lose lots of time to Froome and maybe Contador, so he will have to pull off the TT rides of his life in order to stay in the hunt. At 66/1 though I think he is worth backing each-way and I have also had a little bit at 110 and 95 on Betfair, averaging 96/1. 

My Ante-Post bets and recommendations:

See the 'Outsiders' post for the rest of my full analysis, final summation and preliminary GC bets