Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco 

Stage 2 

Stage 2 - Bilboa to Vitoria-Gasteiz

Tuesday, April 7th, 175.4km

A lumpy second stage takes the riders over 175kms from Bilboa to Vitoria-Gasteiz, taking them over a Cat 1 and five Cat 3 climbs, but it's still likely to come down to a reduced bunch sprint finish. The Cat 1 Alto de Orduna (7.6kms at 8.3%) comes just 40kms or so in to the race, so it's unlikely to have a major bearing on the outcome of the race, other than to serve as the launching pad for the break of the day.

There is a circuit they do around the finishing town of Vitoria-Gastiez which takes in the final two climbs of the day. The final climb, the Alto de Zaldarian is only 2.8kms at 5.4% and tops out just 9kms from the finish. From there it's 8kms downhill, followed by a 1km flat run to the finish with just two roundabouts to go through on the run to the line.

Last year, Michael Matthews sprinted to victory from Kevin Reza and Michal Kwiatkowski and I think the same riders could be involved again tomorrow. Matthews looks a shoe-in for the stage and has to be backed at 2/1 with Paddy Power. When Bet365 opened he was only even money and that looked a little short to me, but PP went 2/1 and I took that.. He is now 11/10 with Bet365.. He won so easily today, he never looked like he was under pressure or was going to be passed. OGE took him smoothly in to position with 2kms to go and from there he did the rest himself, although he did get some help at the finish from Esteban Chaves of all people..

It should come down to a sprint finish, and I can see the likes of Albasini, Gerrans and Impey (who has won here twice in the past) delivering Bling to the front in that last kilometre and he should win it easily. 

Kevin Reza finished 2nd in this stage last year behind Matthews and finished 4th in today's stage so clearly likes it in the finish at Vitoria-Gasteiz. At 33/1 he is worth a shot for tomorrow. Tony Gallopin was a bit lively today and could attack out of that group on the run to the finish but I'm not sure he'll be able to get away. Gianni Meersman and Ben Swift could get a little closer than they did today (10 minutes and 3 minutes back respectively) but I think Matthews has the beating of them and their prices of 9/1 and 9/2 respectively aren't attracting me. 

Recommendations:

4pts win on Michael Matthews at 2/1 with PP

0.4pts each-way on Kevin Reza at 33/1 with PP

 

Profile

 

Stage 3 

Stage 3 -  Vitoria-Gasteiz to Zumarraga

Wednesday, April 8th, 170.7kms

Matthews blew it today, starting his sprint too late after Felline had got the jump on him. It was a great sprint from Felline though, rewarding his backers at a massive 50/1.. Reza looked to be in a great position but seemed to be squeezed out and bottled the sprint when he really should have been pushing his way through, he looked strong enough to have taken a podium spot. 

After two stages for the sprinters, the GC face their first test tomorrow with a challenging stage that features no fewer than 8 climbs - two Cat 1s, four Cat 2s and two Cat 3s. They start heading east and take in three climbs in the first 60kms, two cat 1 climbs and a Cat 2 climb, but they're not very hard or long. With 135kms gone they hit one of the hardest climbs of the day, the Alto de la Antigua.. it may be only 2.5kms long, but it averages 9.6%, with the last 500m averaging over 16%. This could cause some splintering in the peloton and we could see the likes of Movistar looking to get rid of some GC rivals.

That climb tops out with about 30kms to go and they descend down to Zumarraga where they start on a small finishing circuit which takes in the final two climbs - the Cat 3 Alto de Atogoiti which is just 2.5kms at just 3.4% and shortly after they hit the Alto de la Antigua again, but this time they hit the summit with just 3kms to go. From there it is a fast 2km descent down a very twisty road and then it's 1km to the finish, half of which is slightly downhill, then after a u-turn they sprint to the finish on a slightly uphill road for nearly 400m. Rodriguez won here in 2011 after getting away with Horner, Kloden and Sammy Sanchez. 

Nairo Quintana has been installed the joint 7/2 favourite with Michal Kwiatkowski and it could well be a straight shootout between the two favourites for the overall. This climb suits Kwiat more than Quintana in terms of it being short and steep but Quintana should still be one of the most likely to attack it hard in search for victory. It is very short but an explosive attack, especially over the harder last 500m could see a solo attacker, or small group of 4 or 5 riders get a small gap of 10-20 seconds going over the top, and with only 3kms to the finish, 2 of which are downhill, they may be able to hold on to it to sprint out the finish. Kwiatkowski needs all the time he can get ahead of the queen stage and I think he may take the win ahead of Quintana. I just noticed as well that PP have gone 13/1 on Kwiatkowski versus the 7/2 with Bet365 and that has to be backed each-way.

So who could be there besides those two? Joaquim Rodriguez has won here before and will be keen to be involved again at the finish. Is Purito the Purito of 2011 though? Definitely not. He could be targeting this as his most likely chance of victory though and it is a climb and finish that suits his style perfectly. Dani Moreno, his team-mate should also be very close to getting over the top with the first 3 or 4 and has a very fast finish on him too. If the two of them manage to get over with a small group they will be in pole position to tag-team attacks in the last 3km run to the line.

Philippe Gilbert could also be a big danger here, he loves an explosive finale and would be one of the stronger finishers in a stage finish like this. With the Ardennes Classics just around the corner, he should be reaching optimum fitness and should be looking to attack on this finish as it is similar to the Fleche-Wallone type of climb. If he can get away with the likes of Quintana and Kwiat he could well pip them in a sprint finish. He is a huge 40/1 with PP, he's only 18/1 with Bet365

Bauke Mollema, Rui Costa and the likes of Vanendert and Majka might find this a little too sharp but shouldn't be far behind but the likes of Tony Gallopin and Tom Jelte Slagter could go for a slightly longer attack and fast descent in to the finish. It's probably too hard for Michael Matthews though, but instead Michael Albasini could be one to attack this climb, that is if he was in better shape, he doesn't seem to be in his top shape. At a very big price Rinaldo Nocentini could go well - 150/1 might be worth a small bet that he gets over the top close to the leaders, he'd have a good kick at the finish that could see him podium.

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Michal Kwiatkowski at 13/1 with PP

0.4pts each-way on Philippe Gilbert at 40/1 with PP

0.2pts each-way on Rinaldo Nocentini at 150/1 with PP

Matchbets

Slagter to beat Ulissi, Kwiatkowski to beat Arredondo, Moreno to beat Sanchez, 2pts at 11/10 with Bet365

 

Map   

Map

 

Stage 4 

Stage 4 - Zumarraga to Arrate (Eibar)

Thursday, April 9th, 162.2kms

So a pretty disappointing day today with Kwiatkowski just missing the move and finishing one place out of the money in 4th. It was looking good for a while but when Henao and Quintana stepped on the gas near the top of the Antigua he just got gapped by a little bit and no-one could help close the gap.. Mollema, Majka and Scarponi tried but just couldn't get there, and of course Michal won the chase home just to rub salt in the wounds.. The good news I guess is that Quintana is looking in top form and has been slashed to 1/3 for the overall now from the 5/4 I've backed him at. Van Garderen, Pinot, Mollema, Kwiatkowski all lost a little time to the little Colombian.

It was also disappointing to get 2 out of 3 in the matchbet treble, Dani Moreno not having the best of days and finishing 11 places behind an impressive looking Samu Sanchez who finished 11th. Henao looked good and now takes the lead, as did Rodriguez to take the stage in Zumarraga for the second year running. In hindsight, looking at Katusha's Kristoff winning at 7/1 in the Scheldeprijs, it was a day that we should have just stuck with form and experience.. Speaking of the Scheldeprijs, I think we were very unlucky that Bennett was taken out of it by some stupid riding, first by Katusha the way they came up en-masse on the outside and squashed everyone up and then by the Astana rider who tried to get through a non-existant gap and caused the crash that brought Bennett down. Tyler Farrar won the main match bet of the day though to soften the blow but we'll never know if Bennett would have beaten Hutarovich to land the double, Theuns did his part. 

On to stage 4 then, a short but tough stage over 162kms and seven climbs, including two Cat 1 climbs. The Queen stage has its now traditional finish with the Alto de Arrate. The finish may be familiar, but they've changed the start of the stage a little, with a confusing set of loops and circles in various colours as you can see in the map below. It's a lumpy course that sees them crest two warm-up climbs in the first 65kms before they hit one of the hardest climbs of the day after 94kms, the Cat 1 Alto de Ixua, 3.8kms at over 10% average. It is very steep at the top, and like the Antigua today, could see some splits, but the big difference is there is still 64kms to go once over the top, which will allow a regrouping on the descent and run to the next climbs.  

There are three more easy-ish climbs in the next 40kms before they head back towards the final climb of the day at Eibar. The Cat 1 Alto de Arrate is 7.3kms at 6.7%, with the first 6kms averaging 7.5% before it eases back towards the top and then has a descent for the last kilometre through a twisty, tricky final section. Generally, the first man over the top, if solo, will hold the gap to the line, there is not enough time to chase someone down on the run to the finish.

Based on today's stage, performances and results, it looks like we need to concentrate on a handful of riders for this stage, and sure enough, they are all at the top of the betting. Quintana is favourite, and probably rightly so. He coped easily today with the climb even though short and sharp climbs are not really his thing, tomorrow's stage is much more to his liking. In 2013 he came to the top of the climb with 6 others including Henao, Peraud and Spilak and out-gunned them on the descent to the finish to win by 2". He seems to be strong at the moment so I wouldn't be surprised to see him get over the top with a small gap and sprint down the hill to victory again.

Joaquim Rodriguez is clearly coming to great form too though and showed today that if he goes to the line with a small group he is very hard to beat. In the 2012 Vuelta Purito looked to have won the stage after coming to the line with Froome, Contador and Valverde, but Valverde mugged him on the line.. He won't make that mistake again you'd think! In 2012 he also finished second behind Samu Sanchez in a group of three with Chris Horner, with Bauke Mollema best of the rest 12" later. It's 9/4 Quintana and 4/1 Rodriguez and it's hard to split them. Even if they come over the top together it could be hard to split them - Quintana will need a little gap though you'd think based on today's sprint. 

Next is Sergio Henao and he showed today that he is back to his best after his horrible knee injury last year that almost ended his career. It was he who kicked things off today on the Antigua, attacking hard at the front, with only Purito and Quintana able to go with him. Tomorrow's climb may not be as steep but he clearly looks to be in great shape and should be involved in the final parts of the climb when things kick off again. Neither of these three guys are good time triallists though and they will need more than 7" coming in to the TT on the final day on the likes of Kwiatkowski so they will have to go on the attack tomorrow, probably with 3-4kms to go to try to gain more time. Kwiatkowski only lost 10" last year though, so they will have to go full gas to shed him as he looks in better shape this year. If they can't shed him, he will be a strong favourite to take the stage. 

I don't think the break will make it tomorrow as the GC men will be looking to keep the pace very high over the preceeding climbs in an effort to shed the weaker riders and team-mates of their GC rivals. Samu Sanchez knows this climb like the back of his hand, with two wins and two 3rd places to his name. After a pretty anonymous 2014 and start to 2015, he showed today that he is coming in to good shape just in time for another crack at victory here. He almost stayed with the three best climbers today and wasn't far off the pace at all coming over the top, eventually finishing in 7th place in the second group home. 

He may struggle a little on the longer climb tomorrow if it really kicks off with Quintana and Rodriguez trading blows, but if they chase each other down, neutralise each other and stall a little, the likes of Sanchez could come back at them and then he is a big danger as he knows the run to the line very well. Given his lack of form for months now though, it's hard to know will he follow up today's strong showing with another good stage and I think the 8/1 is a bit short, I'd have been hoping for twice that price on him.

Bauke Mollema wasn't far off the pace either today, coming home in the second group 10" down. That finish did not suit the tall Dutchman at all though, it was too short and sharp for his liking. Tomorrow's climb is much more like his style though and I wouldn't be surprised to see him go from the bottom of the climb in an effort to really thin things out and make the likes of Quintana and Rodriguez chase him. If they can put Purito in to the red early on he might not be there at the finish. If Mollema wants to podium in this race he will need to be in the first 3-5 tomorrow you'd think, gaining time on chief rivals. He was 5th here last year, the only time he has done this stage, only 3" behind stage winner Woet Poels, and just 2" behind Sanchez and Valverde. At 25/1 he could offer a little value tomorrow. 

Dani Moreno looked off the pace both times up that climb today but it was steeper than he likes. He may go better tomorrow but I can't see team orders letting him go in pursuit of the stage with Rodriguez challenging the leader's jersey. Julian Arredondo, Simon Spilak, Tejay Van Garderen, Simon Yates - all could have a chance if on a really good day and things fall for them, like TVG's stage win in Paris-Nice when he mugged Porte. Simon Spilak attacked at the bottom of this climb last year and almost hung on, Katusha could employ similar tactics this year in order to try to set up Rodriguez. At 40/1 he might give you some excitement on the final climb. Van Garderen lost some time today but wasn't far off the pace, he will like this climb a lot more and BMC could have a number of men and cards to play coming to the last few kilometres. He could have a chance at a big price again - I was kicking myself I didn't have a small saver on him at a massive 80/1 in PN. 

Mickel Nieve and Thibaut Pinot are another two who could go on the attack earlier in the climb in an effort to take advantage of the GC men marking each other, but even though they may go and get a gap, I don't think they will hold it to the line. AG2R had a lot of men near the front today and although I was watching out for Nocentini and Peraud, it was pint-sized Alexis Vuillermoz who finished the best in 13th place, clearly his 60kg body was a help on those steep ramps. With Peraud having lost 58" today, his race may be done and they might throw the team behind Vuillermoz who could go well on this sort of finish - In the Criterium stage up to the Col de l'Ospedale he finished 6th, and in Tirreno he was 3rd in the sprint behind stage winner Poels, just beaten by Uran and Rodriguez. At 100/1 he is a wild-card for me for tomorrow. 

Others that could go well at big prices? Well JCP has time to make up and he is a big looking 125/1 with Bet365, he is only 66/1 with BetVictor. Tim Wellens, Rein Taaramae, Vasil Kiryienka, they could all go well at 100/1+. Darwin Atapuma and John Esteban Chaves are two mountain goats to watch too, Atapuma struggled on the steeper climb today and finished in the JCP group, Chaves finished in 16th place, just 10" down, they both could go on the attack tomorrow. 

I think though that looking at today's strong men, Nairo Quintana looks the most likely winner and should be backed. I'm waiting for PP to open with their prices, hopefully they'll go 3/1 or bigger, maybe leaning towards Purito as favourite instead. I think he will be there or thereabouts at the finish too, but at bigger prices I am plumping for Mollema, Van Garderen and Vuillermoz. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Nairo Quintana at 9/4 or better with PP if they do go bigger.

0.5pts each-way on Bauke Mollema at 25/1 with Bet365

0.3pts each-way on Alexis Vuillermoz at 100/1 with Bet365

0.3pts each-way on Tejay Van Garderen at 50/1 with Bet365 

 

Matchbets:

TVG to beat Scarponi - 2pts at 4/6

Mollema to beat Moreno, Henao to beat Majka, Spilak to beat Pinot - 1.5pts on the treble at 2/1 with 365

 

Map

 

Profile

 

 

Stage 5 

Stage 5 - Aibar to Aia

Friday, April 10th, 155.5km  

It sucks to tip a guy that comes second on the stage at 25/1 and still end up losing money on the stage! Bauke Mollema did all he could to win but yet again, Joquim Rodriguez was too powerful, and yet again Katusha win another race. Katusha did what I thought they might with Spilak, but instead it was Zakarin they sent up the road and once Henao attacked and bridged it looked for a while with around 3kms to go that they might make it. But suddenly Izagirre stood on the gas, strung out the line of favourites and closed the gap down in less than a kilometre. From there, there was surprisingly, and disappointingly, no attack from Quintana, as the pace was just kept high on the easier gradients inside the last 2kms. Mollema moved up well in the last kilometre, as did Simon Yates, but there was always going to be only one winner with that finish, mr Purito. 

Michal Kwiatkowski lost some more valuable time - 23" today, to now sit 30" behind the joint leaders Henao, Rodriguez and Quintana.. It's quite a bizarre situation to have three riders still on the same time after four tough stages, I wonder will it be the same after tomorrow's uphill finish to Aia.. If so, we could have the very unusual situation of three riders starting their TT on the exact same time. 

The latest GC prices are out now and it shows just how wide open the race still is. Nairo Quintana is still favourite but the prices for most riders vary greatly between bookies as it is still such a puzzle to try and solve. Quintana still edges it though at 8/11 with Bet365 but Henao varies between 7/1 and 4/1 as second favourite, Spilak has now come in to the reckoning as he has a strong TT and is still pretty close - he is 7/1 to 12/1. Kwiatkowski is solid at 12/1 and Tejay looks tempting at 14/1 given he has one of the best time trials in the race. Tomorrow could shake things up again and maybe Quintana could gain necessary time ahead of the TT. 

But so far we have seen though that there doesn't seem to be much between the top 10 here - only 10" in fact! But also there doesn't seem to be much between them in terms of someone who can really sprint away from the others in the style of Froome or Contador.. We expected Quintana to be taking up the mantle with that sort of attacking, but so far he has just followed wheels. Has he been biding his time for tomorrow's stage? I'm not so sure, I'm not backing him at just 11/2 (and definitely not the 4/1 with BV). 

Favourite for the stage is the hat-trick seeking Joaquim Rodriguez and the way Katusha are knocking out wins at the moment you'd think that he is a mortgage-job for tomorrow's stage! 2/1 could be a great bet, he has been pretty dominant so far in the two different scenarios he found himself in in the last two stages. Of the bunch of guys he is most likely going to be up against in the finish again, he is by far and away the best finisher as he showed again today.

Tomorrow's stage is similar to today's in that the parcours is like shark teeth with nine climbs to get over with the climbing just coming relentlessly all day, it looks like there are climbs about every 15kms.. It looks like being the hardest stage of the race with a brutally hard finish to the day.. Maybe this is what Quintana has been waiting for..

Two Cat 3s and a Cat 2 in the opening 50kms are followed by the biggest climb of the day, the Alto de Urakki (8.6kms at 6.6%) which they crest after around 80kms. A fast descent for approx 12kms is followed by just a little bit of flat road, before two more steady climbs around 6% average gradient. As they head towards the final circuit around the town of Aia, it's the last of the 'easy' roads though as a horrible finish await the riders.

First they hit the Alto de Aia for the first time with 20kms to go and this will be a bit like the Antigua from Wednesday - it is short but very steep at 1.7kms, averaging 12%. Then they descend for about 10kms before starting the climb again from a different side. This time the climb is longer, but not as hard - 3.5kms at 8.7% average gradient, with the steepest parts at the bottom and it gradually getting easier. There are just over 4kms to go once over the top and they'd be forgiven for thinking that was it for the day.. but no.. they still have to come back up the steep side again for a second time. The first kilometre of the climb averages a nasty 13.5% but the final 500m are a leg-breaking 17%.

The video below gives you an idea of just how steep the climb is, this was from Stage 5 in 2010 when Purito Rodriguez attacked from a long way out and held off the chasers that included Valverde and Samu Sanchez. It is so steep riders weave all over the road and make it difficult to pass and at times to stay pedalling forward. 

There will be a break go as always, look for the likes of Amets Txurruka to be in that break.. Depending on who is in the break, they may have a small chance of making it, as there are no time bonuses at the finish then the GC men might just save themselves for an explosive last 20kms. There is probably a 90% chance of it ending with the GC men fighting it out though so we need to assess only about 10 riders chances I think. 

Looking at who coped best with the steep slopes on the Antigua, there was only one rider prepared to take it on and attack it - Sergio Henao. He is full of ambition and confidence at the moment, he was on the attack again today only to be reeled in with 2kms to go. Despite the effort required in that break he even managed to sprint to 5th place in the sprint at the finish. Weighing just 61kgs, his frame is built for climbs like this, Tejay Van Garderen for example is 11kgs heavier than him! I think he is a strong favourite for the stage, despite Rodriguez having form on this course and tremendous form this week. If Henao goes hard on those steep slopes at the finish tomorrow, Purito may struggle to stay with him. All he needs is 4 or 5 seconds and he should be able to hold it to the finish. 

Nairo Quintana likes it a little less steep than this but he has to go on the attack tomorrow to try to gain some more time. On the Antigua he did stretch his legs at the front a little but didn't do much damage, so much so that Henao quickly pulled alongside and took off himself. Again today, he never really put himself in a position to stretch things, it was Izagirre who was doing the stretching. I think it could be more of the same from him tomorrow, following Henao and Rodriguez and he may  not be able to go with Henao if he puts in a big burst in the last 500m.

I think it is too steep for Kwiatkowski, Mollema, Pinot, Van Garderen, Costa, Scarponi and Gilbert. They will be top 10-20 but not challenging for the win tomorrow. Others who could be strong and swift enough on a finish like this are Simon Yates at 33/1 and Jelle Vanendert at 100/1. Simon Yates was very strong today and made a strong move on the outside in the last 300m to put himself in a good position to contest the sprint and he came away with a good 3rd place. He likes the really steep climbs and could be one to go with Henao and Rodriguez again tomorrow. Jelle Vanendert has finished 4th and 6th twice in Fleche-Wallone, a finish that is comparible to this one. He rode well today but came in a minute 22"down. This is more his sort of terrain tomorrow though and if he is in training for the Ardennes Classics he might use tomorrow to really gauge his form. He might be worth a small investment at a big price. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Sergio Henao at 9/4 with BetVictor (take the 11/4 with Corals)

0.5pts each-way on Simon Yates at 33/1 with Bet365

0.25pts each-way on Jelle Vanendert at 100/1 with BetVictor

0.2pts each-way on Amets Txurruka at 80/1 with Bet365

Matchbets

Samu Sanchez to beat Kwiatkowski - 1pt at 6/4 with 365

Rui Costa to beat Thibaut Pinot - 1.6pts at 11/8

Simon Yates to beat Bauke Mollema - 1.5pts at 5/4

 

 

Map

 

Profile

Stage 6 

Stage 6 - Aia to Aia

Saturday, April 11th, 18.3kms

What a crap day of results today! I picked Txurruka, he got in the break, but was one of the first to fade. I had some banter with Tom Danielson this morning regarding the road map which showed the average gradient of the final climb at under 5%, as it included 2km of the flat roads running in to it.. I should have taken note and acted on his attention to detail of the road map, as I could have had a 100/1 3rd placer.. Simon Yates was clearly the strongest GC man on the final climb and if they had reeled in the break he'd probably have won.. Thibaut Pinot and Costa finished side by side and guess who crossed the line first.. Not Costa! And Kwiatkowski's head start on the final climb saw him cling on to beat Sanchez. Quintana lost time, Mollema crashed! The only thing that went right today was Yates beating Mollema at 5/4.. 

So it's still all to play for for the GC - Henao and Rodriguez are on the same time with Yates 7" back, then Quintana 12" back, Spilak 22" back, Van Garderen 36" back and Kwiatkowski 42" back. The betting sees Henao marginally favourite at 7/4 with Quintana next at 9/4, then Spilak at 7/2 and Kwiatkowski at 5/1.. Van Garderen is 25/1 despite being just 36" down and one of the better TTers uphill.. 

The TT is just 18.3kms long as they go on a loop down to the coast and back up to the hills around Aia. The first 9kms are all downhill, where they drop 380m down to sea level. Then a small bit of flat for 1500m before they turn around and start heading back in to the hills. As they head back uphill they pass along some of today's course, and we all saw how hard that was. First up they come up the easier ascent to Aia, a 3.5km climb that averages 8.7%. It's quite steep at the bottom, hitting over 12% but it gets easier as they get towards the top. Then the fast descent down to the bottom to start the savage final climb that they finished on today. It gets steeper the further up they go, hitting up to 30% in parts, and we saw today again, riders were all over the road just to keep their forward momentum. 

This is a very hard stage to call. The opening downhill section should favour the more powerful TT'ers like Martin or Kwiatkowski, but the final section will suit the climbers more. Will Martin/Kwiat have enough of a lead as they hit the final climb to hold on? Will the likes of Quintana or Spilak stay in contention on the downhill and power up the steep bits to victory? Or will an all-rounder like Ion Izagirre do enough over both sections to top the list? A lot of riders are probably going to change from a TT bike to a road bike at the bottom of the climb, they should be able to go far faster on a TT bike in the opening part but definitely will have to be on a road bike to tackle the steep gradients of the last part. 

Tony Martin is the 7/4 favourite for the stage and as the best TTer by a mile in this field he should be a strong shout for victory. But the picture is clouded a little by the fact there are the climbs on the course. He should crush it up until the the 11km point or so and then in the second part of the first climb he should pick it up again for the last 2kms or so of it where it eases off again. Again on the descent he should be one of the fastest, and the only part really where he will not be fully effective is the last climb to Aia. 

He has been climbing really, really well though, there was a great shot of the leaders coming over the Antigua a few days ago, not far behind the leaders, in the top 20 over the climb, Martin appeared gritting his teeth and fighting for his life. He also rode really well today in the break and then helped pull Kwiatkowski along when he caught the break. Hopefully it didn't take too much out of him, he seemed to take it easy today once his job was done and rolled in nearly five minutes down. I think he will take all the beating tomorrow, he is on form, looking strong and the final, hard climb is only 1400m long or so, he should be able to battle his way up that hill not losing too much time to the climbers. 7/4 is very short considering how open the stage could be. 

Simon Spilak has been riding well too, did a great TT up to Col d'Eze to finish second in Paris Nice, and has shown he has good climbing legs in this race too. He was 4th in this TT last year and this hillier version will probably suit him even more. I think he is capable of a top 3 tomorrow. 

Michal Kwiatkowski is like Martin, should go well in the first part, should do ok on the first, easier hill, but may struggle a bit on the final climb. He should still be capable of a top 5 finish given how well he is riding at the moment. He attacked again today but faded near the finish when the favourites were coming at him. He still hung on to finish just 15" behind Yates, which was a very good performance. He has 42" to make up on Henao and will be going all out for the win but I think he'll fall short on both the stage and for the overall.

Sergio Henao has shown himself to be one of the strongest climbers in the race and had Rodriguez on the limit today when he attacked him near the finish, Purito tried to come by him but was unable to. Henao wouldn't be the greatest time triallist and so will struggle in the first part, but should be able to make up some time on the latter part. He is more or less joint favourite for the overall with Quintana, it may be that he does well enough for a top 3 place overall but outside the top 3 on the stage. 

Speaking of Quintana, he has won this TT in the past and needs to put in a massive performance tomorrow in order to win the overall. He is still favourite for the overall, even though he lost time today - he should be able to beat all of those above him, the dangers for the overall are all behind him. He has a 10" buffer on Spilak and he will have to really go some to preserve that lead. It is 24" back to Van Garderen and then 30" to Kwaitkowski and they could be big dangers too being better TTers. I don't think he will win the stage but he should be good enough to hold on to a top 3 place at worst in the GC. 

His team-mate Ion Izagirre has looked to be going better than him and if Movistar had decided to get behind him instead of an under-par Quintana he could well be leading this race by now. He has climbed really well, going again and again in the services of Quintana. He has a good TT in him too so he could be a big chance at a top 3 tomorrow at a decent price of 16/1 with SportingBet.

Tejay Van Garderen looks overpriced at 33/1 for the stage, he is a good time triallist, and goes well in hilly TTs - he is dominant in the hill TT to Vail in the USA Pro Challenge. This is a fair bit steeper than in Vail but I think he could pull off a big ride tomorrow. He should go well in the downhill section and in the early part of the climbing, it might be just in the final steep parts where his 71kg frame holds him back a little. 33/1 is big though, he should do better than a fair few of those at shorter prices above him. There are others of course who could get involved - Dumoulin at a big looking 66/1, Zakarin who rode so well in stage 4, Kiryienka, Pinot, Costa.. 

Really hard to call any one of these guys with confidence though. Martin will probably be too strong for all of these, but there is little value in him at 2/1 now. Izagirre could go well at 16/1, Spilak at 6/1 and Van Garderen at 33/1. Quintana has a real battle on his hands to take the GC, Spilak could be his biggest danger, he has been backed all day in to around 4/1 now from 6/1 a little earlier.

Recommendations   

0.5pts each-way on Ion Izagirre at 16/1 with SportingBet

0.5pts each-way on Tejay Van Garderen at 28/1 with SportingBet (Bet365 are offering win only on him at 33/1, no market for him to finish in the top 3?!) 

 

Matchbets 

Martin to beat Kwiatkowski - 2pts at 8/11

Kiryienka to beat Dumoulin - 1pt at evens

Scarponi to beat Rodriguez - 1pt at 5/4

 

Map

 

Profile