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Published on Wednesday, 28 August 2013 22:29

Vuelta Stage 6 Preview

Stage 6 - Guijuelo to Caceres, 177.3km

Michael Matthew proved that he is the strongest, fastest and smartest sprinter in the bunch today, cosily taking the sprint after jumping with about 200m to go and holding off Richeze and Meersman quite comfortably, rewarding some good team-work by Orica Green-edge to pull back the break of the day.

The day saw a breakaway go away after only 8km which consisted of Antonio Piedra (Caja Rural), Nicolas Edet (Cofidis), Jurgen Van De Walle (Lotto Belisol), Arnaud Corteille (FDJ) and Winner Anacona (Lampre-Merida). They built a lead of over 10 minutes at one stage and it still was over 5' with just 45km left when Garmin, Orica Green-Edge and Omega Pharma Quick-Step started to chase. The catch was made of the remainder of the breakaway with only 2.4km to go when Gilbert launched a rather feeble attack off the front, maybe just to prove to himself that the deep cut that has been bothering him has finally heeled.

It was all set up for the sprinters, but as leadout trains were almost non-existant after the hard chase and with the roads narrow and twisting in the last km, sprinters were left to fight it out for themselves. Matthews proved the strongest and smartest as he went early and held on comfortably. Farrar never looked intersted in the sprint for some reason - was lingering in about 10th place for most of the last 500m, was on Matthews and Meersman's wheels, but when they dived for the gaps and moved forward as Argos finishd their lead-out for Arndt Farrar didn't seem to want to go with them.

He never got out of the saddle in the sprint and was unable to challenge the top 3 guys. Interesting to hear Magnus Backstedt on ITV tonight suggesting that he might be affected still by Wouter Weylandts death and has lost his nerve and edge in a hustle-bustle sprint.. That is a real shame if true, but I too feel that he just didn't have the bottle to get in the mix proper today. For that reason I am steering clear of him for the win tomorrow. It will probably come back to haunt me but I am going to watch how he goes tomorrow and maybe look at backing him again another time if he proves me wrong.

Instead, I cannot get away from Matthews - he saved me today again with my Top 3 bet at 6/4 almost making up for the losses on Farrar for Top 3 and Win bets. He looked super strong again today and easily outpaced Meersman and Richeze. He is much shorter for tomorrow's stage though at just 5/2, but I still think he is the most likely winner. It was interesting to hear him say in an interview today that they had Leigh Howard for the sprint too but that today was to be his day and Howard will get his chance, will be interesting to see if they try to play the Howard card tomorrow, but I think he is in such great form they will back him all the way. 

Yvon Ledanois, DS of BMC said "I've spoken with Philippe Gilbert about some of these stages as he prepares for the Worlds and this is one that should suit him" but I can't see him beating any of the fast guys to be honest. EBH, Farrar and Meersman are all around 6-7/1 for the stage but I feel EBH just doesn't have the finishing kick in him as he faded yesterday and today in the last 100m or so. For that reason I am going to look to lay him to place in Top 3 around 6/4 on Betfair.

Meersman should be in the top 3 again though as OPQS look strong and purposeful with Tony Martin and Co, but I think Arndt can go closer tomorrow and take a top 3 place also. Argos-Shimano had the best lead-out remaining today in the last kilometer but the chaos of the twisty finish spoiled their efforts I think.. Tomorrow's finish is a bit more straight forward so expect A-S to get it right tomorrow like they did in the tour after learning from previous mistakes so the 20/1 each way with William Hill looks attractive.