Details

Published on Sunday, 25 August 2013 23:20

Vuelta Stage 3 Preview

Stage 3 - Vigo to Mirador de Lobeira (Vilagarcía de Arousa), 172.5km

I was faced with a dilemma of emotions today in the final 2kms as my 33/1 tip Daniel Moreno took off up the road, only to be followed by Nico Roche. I found myself shouting for both of them for different reasons, I was desperate for Roche to win, but had a profit in the hundreds riding on Moreno!

As it turned out I had to settle for the place profits on Moreno (plus some 8/1 on the top 3 market on Betfair) but was delighted to see Roche take a stunning victory, riding away from Pozzovivo and Moreno. Rodriguez came in in 7th, Daniel Martin in 11th. The other big news on the stage though was the performances of Samu Sanchez and Sergio Henao, two who had GC ambitions - both were dropped on the final climb and lost significant time. Janez Brajkovic also lost time and handed over the red jersey to his team-mate Nibali. 

Tomorrow's stage is quite similar to today's stage in that it is more or less flat all the way, then a nasty ascent up to the Mirador de Lobeira which averages 10% for 2kms. It looks like it will be a very similar scenario to today's stage with the break of the day likely to be reeled in just before they hit the final ascent, with the GC boys pushing things on and battling it out in the run in to the line. There should be a reasonable sized bunch hitting the final climb so it could get a bit chaotic with lots of riders scrapping to be in the right spot. 

Rodriguez said after today's stage that he was comfortable enough, but when Moreno went he just didn't have the kick to go with him, that it will come with racing. I actually think that maybe Purito was thinking about tomorrow's stage and it was always the plan to let Moreno go today, as I predicted in yesterday's preview. Whether Rodriguez is going to be ready for tomorrow's stage is another question though. He is available to back at 16/1 though, which may look like a massive price if he skips away to victory!

The favourite for the stage is Valverde at 4/1 or so, probably because of his strong finish today leading home the remnants of the peloton. I don't like that price though, too short for me - Movistar looked in control today for most of the last 10km but were powerless to stop the escapees skipping away to win the stage. Next is Gilbert at 6/1 best price, as ordinarily the stage finish should suit him. But his form has been poor (bar one impressive near miss at the Eneco Tour) and he also crashed there just last week, so I am swerving that too. 

Two that interest me though are Stybar at 14/1 on Betfair and Simon Gerrans at 20/1 with Skybet. Stybar is clearly in great form given his recent success in the Eneco Tour and the finish should suit him. With the GC boys all watching each other, an OPQS jersey might just be left go. Simon Gerrans might be able to hang in there to the finish and if so he should be able to take the sprint if it comes to it, he should be good enough to take the likes of Valverde. It's a hard stage to call so small stakes recommended but these are the two bets I fancy for tomorrow. 

Or can Nico Roche get up again and nick the time bonus at the finish to put himself in the Red Jersey to go with his points jersey, mountains jersey and combined jersey?! You'd never know!