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Published on Saturday, 14 September 2013 22:37

Vuelta Stage 21 Preview

Stage 21 - Leganés to Madrid, 109.6km

What a climax to the Vuelta. A stunning, emotional victory for young Kenny Elissonde to provide another French stage winner and another shock - a 599/1 shock at that! A battle royale between Nibali and Horner all the way up Angrilu made it one of the most exciting finishes to a Grand Tour in many, many years.

One lucky punter was cheering Elissonde home after he had backed him at 600 on Betfair for £4 (£8 matched is £4 of the backer and £4 of the layers money matched) meaning he won a cool £2,396 from his £4 bet. I bet he was tucking in to a nice bottle of champagne a little like Elissonde below! (note in the picture how they spelled his name wrong on his bus seat head-rest!)

For the GC though, It was an amazing ding-dong battle played out almost in slow motion at times as they hit the steep slopes of the Angliru. The GC group was quickly whittled down as soon as the Horner/NIbali battle started and at first it was only Valverde and Rodriguez who could stay with them as Roche, Pozzovivo, Sanchez and Pinot all dropped off the back.

Astana had two men up in the early break, Tiralongo and Fuglsang and although Tiralongo had gone on ahead with Elissonde he was called back to assist Nibali in his attempt to win back the lead from Horner. He can't be too pleased with how it all worked out, as Elissonde went on to win the stage, and instead, Tirolongo was dropped by Nibali about 2 minutes after joining him! That was during one of the four gallant efforts by Nibali to get away from Horner, each time getting a gap that must have had his fans screaming in excitement. Each time though Horner clawed his way back. The constant pressure though saw Rodriguez and Valverde crack and Horner and Nibali push on through the mist and the mayhem. Finally, Horner turned the screw on one of the steep switchbacks and Nibali cracked. Horners slowly pulled away and in to the red jersey.

Elissonde took a brilliant stage win though, holding on from a man 20 years older than him, he was only 4 years old when Horner turned Pro! The enormity of his achievement getting to him as he crossed the line in tears. Behind, Nibali was caught by Valverde and two guys who were having unbelieveable rides also - Nerz of BMC and Cardoso of Caja Rural. Valverde came in best of the rest to confirm his podium spot. Pozzovivo came in, but no sign of Roche and it was possible he was slipping out of 5th place - but finally confirmation came that unseen by the cameras Roche had lost just 1'20" to Pozzo and held on to 5th. He has a lot to thank his team-mates for as it was the time he made up on that push in the head-winds that ultimately made the difference.  

Incredibly, going in to the final stage, the GC, points and KOM were all up for grabs, but with Edet getting in the break of the day and mopping up points on the Cat 3 climbs he secured the KOM jersey. Valverde also secured the points so he must be happy with his Vuelta - 3rd place and the Green jersey. 

Stage 21

I'll keep this brief, not much to say about tomorrow's stage, other than it will be a parade followed by a sprint in Madrid. The riders do have a 5 hour transfer to contend with tonight but that shouldn't bother them too much now, they know there is just that last day to contend with and it's over. It is the flattest and shortest stage of the race so finally the organisers have laid off the pain. And with temperatures of 29 degrees expected they should enjoy the cava and the sunshine. The race enters Madrid after just 60km and then goes on a circuit around Madrid which they have to do eight times before the almost certain sprint finish.

Contenders and Favourites

Despite the large numbers who have abandoned (of the 197 riders who started, 53 riders (27%) have not made it to Madrid) there are still quite a number of the sprinters left in the race so they will all have their sights on winning this stage. The betting reflects the fact that it is very hard to pick the winner, with prices all over the place but ultimately Matthews, EBH, Richeze and Farrar are all around and about 4/1 to win. Paddy Power make Matthews favourite at 3/1, Bet365 make EBH favourite at 3/1. Meersman is 12/1 and Howard, Wagner and others are 20/1 and bigger. 

I made the mistake of doubting Eddie B's sprint on stage 17 when he comfortably was the best of the sprint that were racing for second place behind Mollema. I would not have predicted him to be favourite for this stage pre-race, but he clearly has good legs and maybe it's more a reflection of the quality of the opposition than anything else. Nevertheless, he has been impressive and I can see him being in the top 3 again tomorrow.

Matthews will like a dogfight crit type finish and the Australian should be there or thereabouts also, but the worrying thing for him is that OGE only have three other riders left. They could easily find themselves outmanouvered by the likes of Lampre who almost have their entire squad still intact. For that reason, I am fancying Richeze for the stage. He has been very consistent and has been in the top 3 on numerous occassions and I cannot see him being outside the top 3 again and in fact I think he will be good enough to take it. Lampre will have plenty of time to get the leadout right with the 8 passes of the finishing circuit, but they need to leave the likes of Garmin and Sky do most of the work up until a kilometre or two to go and then hit the front with a big train. He has struggled to get his nose in front, but then again so have all the others. 

Farrar won this stage in 2010 from none other than Mark Cavendish, but he has been the bridesmaid all during the Vuelta, missing out on top 3s, timing his sprint wrong and so on. I think he will be in the top 3 again tomorrow though but probably won't win it - this wider road will make it very hard for him to screw it up, he surely can't get boxed in or not get on a good wheel (EBH's wheel would be a good one to be on). The Argos boys of Arndt, Van Rensburg etc seem to get it wrong too often so I am not touching any of them. Meersman though is an interesting one in that he has disappointed with his results, a lot was expected of him. He too has only 3 team mates left, and with this finish being a wide, long powersprint finish I'm worried he will be left isolated again. 

So one final bet on Richeze at 6/1 each way with William Hill, and a place bet on Farrar and EBH.