Vuelta Stage 20 Preview

Stage 20 - Aviles to Alto de L´Angliru, 142.2km

And so it comes down to the Angliru as people thought it might. But I can't believe many cycling fans out there would have believed that going in to the penultimate and deciding stage Chris Horner would be holding a 3 second lead over pre-race favourite Vincenzo Nibali

But that is where we are and it looks like Nibali just doesn't have the legs to rip it back off Horner today, it is his to lose for sure now. Yesterday's stage went a lot like I expected. The early break went, but never got very far ahead, their max lead never really got far over 3 minutes. A later break with Txurruka bridged up to them but Eddie Boasson Hagen and Preidler had gone off the front alone, but they too were reeled in before the finish. 

So it came down to a GC battle on the final climb to Alto Del Naranco. It stayed together more or less until about 1.2km to go when Roche launched the attack I predicted he would after a great job by Majka.. For a while he got a bit of a gap and then Scarponi, another pick of mine went after him and for a little moment I got quite excited.. but then came Rodriguez! His attack was explosive in the extreme and he launched past Roche and Scarponi like they were going backwards. He very quickly gained a large gap and there was no catching him. Samu Sanchez also did as I expected and went after him but left it too late, he was only ever going to be chasing second spot in front of his home fans. As it turned out he couldn't even do that as he was passed by Ulissi with a superb finish, and Dani Moreno who recovered after being on the limit when Roche attacked. But behind again, more drama on the GC as Horner gapped NIbali by 6 seconds, to put himself in to the leader's Red Jersey. 

Stage 20

Stage 20 is a fitting climax to what has been a superb, unpredictable Vuelta. It was always going to be influential on deciding final placings, but I don't think anyone could have seen it possibly decide 1st, 2nd, 3rd or even 4th places depending on how their day goes. The profile gets progressively worse as the stage goes on as the riders have to tackle an uncategorised climb, followed by a Cat 3, a Cat 2, Cat 1 and then the Especiale Category finish at the Angliru. 

The penultimate climb of the Alto Del Cordal will surely cause some damage - 5.3km at an average gradient of 9.6%, hitting max gradients of 12.14%. If an early break has gone this is where we could start to see them suffer and possibly even pulled back - depends if some teams try shredding the peloton ahead of the Angliru. Katusha for example might want to thin down the group to help launch Purito again at the finish. 

They hit the slopes of the Angliru with 13km left, but these are possibly the hardest 13km in pro racing - A look at the profile below shows just how hard it is. Average of 10.2%, hitting a max of 23.5%. But there are several sections of 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21% - it is so hard most will be riding compact chainsets and monster cogs at the back - 32 teeth or bigger even. It was here in 2011 that Juan Jose Cobo rode away from Froome and Wiggins and co (who almost came to a stop in parts with traffic breaking their rhythm) to win the race. The final 500m is downhill but I can't see it coming down to a sprint finish between any riders, this will be a solo winner I think 

Contenders and Favourites

So who will it be then? Well it is hard to look beyond the top two in the betting, Horner and Rodriguez. They are roughly joint favourites dependin on which bookie you look at but Horner slightly edges favouritism at 9/4 with Ladbrokes, Rodriguez is 11/4 on Betfair. Two days ago I wouldn't have said Rodriguez, but yesterday's performance has put him right up there in my thoughts again. Did it take too much out of him though? I don't think so. I think that he will sit on Horner's wheel for as long as he can, some attacks may go by the likes of Valverde, Sanchez, Anton possibly, but I think Horner will grind away like he has been doing and reel them in.

Purito will wait for his opportunity again and I can see him possibly attacking just after the really steep parts with 2km to go when the gradients drop back to around 10%. If he attacks like he did today no one will be able to catch him. Horner will possibly have gapped Nibali at this stage so will be happy to just tap it out to the finish and not risk going in to the red chasing down Purito. So between the two, I am going to go for Purito, and at a bigger price than Horner.     

Will think about match bets and update later.