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Published on Sunday, 08 September 2013 22:05

Vuelta Stage 16 Preview

Stage 16 - Graus to Sallent de Gállego, 146.8km

A less dramatic day weather wise, but it still took it's toll on the Vuelta, with a whole host of riders climbing off or indeed not even starting. There were only 159 riders started this morning and another 9 climbed off today, including Gilbert, Martin, Stybar and Baden Cooke. 

Overall there was no major shake-up in the GC, with an early break eventually supplying the winner in the shape of 25 year old Alexandre Geniez of FDJ. It was only the second win of his pro career, but France's 2nd win in 3 stages. Geniez had joined the 28-man group which got away about 23 km into the stage. He was one of the first to jump when the group fell apart on the second climb of the day, and a six-rider group formed which held together until the ascent of the third climb. One of the riders in this six-man group was Cardoso, who I had recommended at 200/1, and in a group chasing these was Scarponi who I picked out at 33/1. Cardoso and Geniez rode away from their companions and for a while I was getting very excited, with Cardoso trading down as low as 2/1 in running.. 

As they descended the Co du Port de Balés, Geniez hit nearly 100kmph and easily put a considerable gap between him and Cardoso, who clearly wasn't enjoying going downhill as much as Geniez. As the main GC men headed towards the summit behind, Nicholas Roche rode away and got a small gap going over the top.. but waiting just over the hill was Oliver Zaugg, his team-mate and a two-up time trial started down the descent. They were subsequently joined by Majka who had also come back from the early break of the day, in a clever and audacious move to try to gain some time back he lost yesterday.

As it turned out, Roche held on as behind the GC leaders shadow boxed and attacked each other but ultimately came in together. Scarponi, one of my selections at 33/1 thankfully put in a storming ride to take 2nd and land the each-way money, with Roche taking an excellent 3rd place to move to within 6" of 5th place Pozzovivo and extend the gap back to Pinot to 1'10". Cardoso cracked on the final climb and came in 7' down on his former companion.

Stage 16

This is the last day in the Pyrenees and the riders must be desperately looking forward to Tuesday's rest day - it's been a very hard tour so far and you have to wonder what effect it might have on some of their chances in the worlds in a few weeks. Gilbert abandoned today possibly with that in mind.. Stage 16 is yet another brutal day, as although it is one of the shortest stages at only 146.8km it is coming on the back of two really hard days. The road rises up more or less from the flag drop and they pass a 3rd and a 2nd Cat climb in the first 100km en route to the final climb up towards the summit finish. The official distance for the climb is just under 16km, but they will have been climbing for about 17km before that, so it is a seriously long climb. 

The final climb isn't overly difficult at just 4% average and a max of just 9.5%, but it is long and there will be a lot of tired legs out there tomorrow. It again looks like a day made for a breakaway, but the question is will the GC men try to light it up tomorrow with the rest day to come, or will they be happy to let a break go all the way to the finish again and we have another surprise escape winner?

Contenders and Favourites

The bookies make Valverde the favourite for the stage at just 3/1 - this to me now is too short given what I have seen over the last few days. I stuck with him today thinking he might improve on the performance of the previous day when he tore up the mountain after being left behind while disrobing at the bottom of the climb. By the way, did you notice Horner with one shoe cover on all the way to the top? Apparently he started taking them off too at the bottom of the climb but when he saw the pace increase he left the other one on.. Valverde didn't react the same way and it cost him dearly.. Anyway, the thing is Valverde was left behind by a few surges today when Niblai and Horner and Purito started duelling, but luckily for him they eased off each time and together with Pinot and Pozzovivo and co he got back on each time. But when it came to it on the downhill sprint, which I fully expected him to be winning had it been for 1st place, he was easily dismissed by Nibali.. So to me, with the fact a break could bulid up a big lead and stay away, and that Valverde isn't 100% to me, he is a lay at 3/1 to win.. unfortunately others seem to think that too though as he is 5/1 on Betfair! 

Next we have Rodriguez and Nibali around 6/1 with the bookies, but interestingly you can back Nibali at 9/1 on Betfair, Purito is about 13/2. Nibali I think has to be a strong fancy for tomorrow's stage if the GC men get to the finish first. He has been imperious so far in the hills, easily and almost comfortably dealing with everything thrown at him. I noticed and tweeted today at some point, I think it was about 3km to go, he was climbing in the big ring while ALL the others were spinning small rings.. he was showing them who the BOSS was! It then struck me that he seemed to be struggling a little to hold wheels, seemed to be pulling hard, but it looks like it was all a bluff, as when it came to it at the finish he skipped away from them to take the 'best of the rest' prize. I can see him try to stamp his authority on this race tomorrow and win a stage on his own, I can see him accelerate away from the others with 2km or so to go and crown what is surely his Vuelta now, so I have backed him at 19/2 on Betfair tonight. 

Rodriguez has been very disappointing, and even today his attempts smacked of desperation and frustration - he tried attacking with 8km to go, what was the point in that?! A total waste of energy, he was never going to just ride away from Horner and Nibali. I think he is a short price at 6/1 and won't be backing that. Horner could do anything again tomorrow, he could try attacking NIbali as he is only 50" back, he could just suck wheels thinking he might get a better chance next week, or he may finally start to fade. Roche looked good today again, he got over his cold induced suffering from the day before and showed guts and guile today - he may well hang in there tomorrow as it isn't too steep and he may even try a jump at the end again if feeling good enough. Moreno has been doing ok the last few days finishing 16th and 19th and this finish may suit him too if he is not put on babysitting duties for Purito. He is as big as 18/1 with Paddy Power and that might be worth a small e/w bet. 

As for breakaway candidates, we did pretty well yesterday in a 200/1 shot almost doing it and a 33/1 shot finishing 2nd, but it will be hard to pick some for tomorrow again, even if the field is reducing day by day! Amets Txurruka finished 20th today and for a man who had ambitions for the Mountains jersey he is running out of time. He is only 23pts behind the leader Edet though so it is still definitely up for grabs. He will have been inspired by Cardoso's attempt today and as he is now over 40' back he is no threat. He is a massive 100/1 with BetVictor, he is only 33/1 with Bet365. Roux and Bagot finished 26th and 25th today and I wouldn't be surprised to see either of them up the road again tomorrow at 150/1 each. Finally, Benat Intxausti might fancy it again if allowed go up the road, at 100/1 he is worth a pound or two!