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Published on Saturday, 07 September 2013 22:05

Vuelta Stage 15 Preview

Stage 15 - Andorra to Peyragudes, 244.9km

A dramatic day in the cold and rain saw Daniele Ratto solo to a brilliant stage win after getting away from the break of the day on one of the many treacherous descents. But the day was packed with drama, incident and accidents which saw no fewer than 14 riders abandon 

The early break contained Luis Leon Sanchez and Gilbert, Brown and Chainel, but pretty soon the latter two fell away leaving just three out front, who had nearly 9 minutes lead with 70km or so to go. On the descent though Sanchez crashed out and abandoned shortly after suffering from hypothermia. Soon after that news came through that Basso abandoned for the same reason. Westra, Vanendert, Henderson, Kreuziger, Poels were amongst others who called it a day today and that under 165 riders bet I was thinking about pre-race would have landed with a week to spare.. 

Up front, Kiserlovski rode a brilliant race to stretch things out, Valverde lost contact on a descent as he suffered from the cold and pretty soon it was just Horner, Nibali and Kiserlovski as Roche, Pinot, Pozzovivo, Sanchez and Rodriguez slipped back. Valverde rode a storming last 10km after he warmed up a little and almost caught the leaders, but Ratto held on to win by just under 4 minutes from Nibali and Horner, with Rodriguez, Sanchez and Valverde not far behind.

Roche was the big loser on the day, coming in over 7' down and slipping to 6th overall. Horner moved up to 2nd but Nibali's stranglehold on the lead grows ever tighter, and he looks unbeatable at the moment. My punting was off the mark today with Valverde, but thankfully saved the day with a lay of Gilbert for the top 3 at evens with about 5km to go, which I tweeted at the time. He had only 3mins on the leaders and would clearly be suffering with that many hill miles in his legs. I was pretty chuffed to see Nibalie and Horner reel him in with about 2km to go. 

Stage 15

Stage 15 is another horrible day for the riders with no fewer than four 1st Category climbs to be covered on a stage of 224.9km, 70km more than today's beast. The climbing starts after only about 7km and hits the Puerto del Canto, a 24km drag that averages 4.2% with a max of 10%, so not brutally hard on its own. After 80km they hit the Puerto de la Bonaigua which is 20km at an average of 5.5%, with a max of 12.5%. They then head across the border to France to tackle the Col Du Port De Balés, 19km at a steeper gradient of 6.2%, hitting a max of 10.5%. The final climb to the summit at Peyragudes is a climb often used by the Tour de France but it usually stops a little further down on the Col de Peyresourde. The average is just 4.7% but hits a max of 13.3%. Valverde knows this climb well having won a stage here in the last Tour de France. 

The early climb is bound to see a lot of breakaway attempts and we could well see a similar situation to today and the day before with the break staying away. Teams are tired, decimated and will be concentrating all their efforts on looking after their leaders GC interests, those that are still up in the GC that is. But there are plenty of riders who do not have GC ambitions and who will be looking to get up the road tomorrow in search of glory like Bargui; and Ratto. The weather could play a major part in proceedings again though and eating, drinking and trying to stay warm will be very important.

Contenders and Favourites

If it does come down to a battle of the GC boys, it is hard to look past the top 5 from today (excluding Ratto). Horner still looks strong, will this longer stage finally see him fade a little? Nibali looks imperious at the moment and is getting superb support from Kiserlovski and Fuglsang and the rest of the team. Rodriguez was just caught for pace by Kiserlovski's acceleration today but finished strongly not far behind the front two. Samu Sanchez was strong all day and finished well too. Valverde suffered early but was dragged back in to it by Herrada and Intxausti but when he pressed on himself he was very powerful and passed rider after rider including Pinot and Pozzovivo. Valverde knows this climb well, having won here already as I said before, and he will not make the same mistake tomorrow I think with dressing properly for the descents. I think he will be really fired up for this after losing out today and will have gained confidence from his powerful finish. I think the winner of the day if not a break will be between him and Nibali, especially as the finishing kilometers are flat, perfect for his finishing sprint. He is 6/1 on Betfair and I will be having some of that, with a little more maybe in play depending on how it's going. 

If a break goes, it really is stick a pin in the page time, but a few I fancy to be in it at big prices are: Andre Cardoso of Caja Rural finished well today in 14th place, ahead of Anton, Moreno and Roche. Caja Rural haven't had much joy so far but not from a lack of trying. He is over 17' down so may be let get away if his legs are good and he is a nice price at 200/1 with Paddy Power. Michele Scarponi has been busy in the last few days getting in the break two days ago but missing out in the end, and he came in a respectable 25th today, only about 5' down on the GC men. I can see him trying to get away with the break again tomorrow and is a nice 33/1 each way bet. Dominic Nerz finished well today too in 21st and with the pressure off in BMC now that Gilbert has his stage he can maybe have a go tomorrow. He is also available at 200/1. Finally, Alex Howes finished best of the Garmin guys today, only about 6' behind the main GC guys and he has been up the road a few times in the Vuelta already. With no team leader they are free to ride for themselves and he may look to be involved again tomorrow. He is as big as 250/1 on Paddy Power. 

A very difficult day all round again tomorrow, not just for the riders but us punters too!