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Published on Thursday, 05 September 2013 22:05

Vuelta Stage 13 Preview

Stage 13 - Valls to Castelldefels, 169km

 I'm pretty annoyed with how it all turned out today. First of all I think I am just going to give up on trying to pick the winners of these 'sprint' stages as they are not normal sprint finishes, but utter chaos. No team takes control and it's a free for all.

Secondly I am annoyed with the information provided by the Vuelta organisers regarding the final few kilometers. Either they moved the finish line forward a kilometre or they got the profile completely wrong. As you can see right it was supposed to rise up with 2km to go and then be more or less flat for the last kilometre, so the sprinters could do battle. The race was already a mess as they hit the last kilometre - OGE had disappeared (turns out Matthews punctured...), Argos were nowhere to be seen and Garmin inexplicably again burning their last lead out man with well over a km to go. But instead of the drag up in the 2km to go section, the riders suddenly hit the last kilometre when the road rose up in front of them. There was one camera shot down the hill which pictured it perfectly, I couldn't believe it when I saw it..

And of course the result was we got the 'hill finish' specialists come to the fore - EBH made a very valiant effort to take the stage attacking with about 400m to go but was passed by a surging Phil Gil in the shadow of the post. Don't get me wrong, I am delighted for Gilbert, really love his style and he has been good to me over the years betting wise, but it totally wrecked all bets on any of the sprinters. Richeze did well to finish in the top 3 like I thought he might, but the rest of the sprinters were scattered - Meersman was 5th, Wagner 13th, Farrar 16th.. This Vuelta has been really hard to get ahead on - way too many shock performances and far too many strange finishes... but we will battle on and try to land some results before the end in Madrid.

Stage 13

Stage 13 is another conundrum. With a rolling parcours for most of it and a flat, fast run in to the finish you would think sprint.. BUT there is the not inconsiderable obstacle of the Rat Penat to overcome with 115km of the stage to go. This 1st Cat climb rears up above the finish town of Castelldefels, and although it is only 4.3km long, it averages 10.6% and hits 16% in the middle. I can see this blowing the race apart and the likes of Farrar, Meersman, Richeze and most of the other 'sprinters' will go out the back door. It reminds me of stage 13 in the Tour last year with the rise up to the Mont-Saint-Clair with 20km to go when only about 20 riders contested the finish, with Andre Greipel and Sagan being the only two sprinters who made it with the lead group.

Not only that, but the finish has a nasty kick up in it too for the last 400m, and especially for the last 150m, right when the legs will be burning. The run in is tricky again with a roundabout to negotiate with 500m to go, but I think it may well be a reduced peloton so they should be ok. 

Contenders and Favourites

As regards contenders and favourites, I have to start with Juan Antonia Flecha - he may be a long shot, but with 22km to go the stage passes through Stiges, Flecha's home town.. Vacansoleil have had a poor Vuelta and with Markus gone home and Bola sick, Flecha is more than ever the main man. He probably won't win, but he may well be a nice back-to-lay candidate if he gets a gap with 20km to go. It may depend on who he has with him - others that might take a flyer could be LL Sanchez, who seems to be coming in to the race and rode a good TT, or possibly Imanol Erviti who was a winner of the stage the last time they came over the climb in 2010. He was a team-mate of Xavier Tondo who died tragically two years ago - Tondo was from Valls where the stage starts... He was caught up in a crash today, but according to the team's website it had 'no relevant consequences' so he may well give it a crack tomorrow again. Intxausti was with Tondo the day he died so he may well be inspired to get up the road too at some point. 

Other than that you have to look at the hilly specialists again - I can see Philippe Gilbert being right up there as long as a late breakaway hasn't stolen it. He was super strong today and is clearly coming in to form at the right time of year again. Last year when he won his first stage in the Vuelta, he went on to win another and then the World's and you wouldn't put it past him doing it again. He will be full of confidence now, like Roche is following his stage win, and I fully expect him to go very close tomorrow. That climb would have troubled him at the start of the race, but not now I don't think and I can see BMC looking after him well. He is best priced 5/2 with Bet365 but there is 4/1 available on Betfair.

Dani Moreno and Purito should be well up there too, and for different reasons - Moreno to win points for the green jersey, and because he clearly is in brilliant form, Purito as he really needs to put in a performance soon and start pulling back some lost time - a finish line time bonus would help ahead of a hard weekend. Moreno is only 12/1 whereas Purito is as big as 75/1 with Paddy Power.. so maybe the plan is to save the legs for the weekend.. 

Valverde might like it, Roche might, EBH might, Stybar might - there are lots who will have their eye on tomorrow's stage. Of the 'sprinters' in the peloton that could make it over, there is obviously Matthews, who will be hoping for better luck this time, Simon Gerrans who you would think should revel in a finish like this, but he seems to be off the boil since his crash last week - they are both around the 20-25/1 level. Luis Leon Sanchez is very short at just 12/1, so maybe the 'plot' has been leaked somewhere that tomorrow is a day for him. 

So I think Gilbert could well make it two in a row, Moreno will be up there in the top 3 potentially, and EBH, Matthews and Valverde may well all be in the top 5. I have a feeling it will be a reduced group contest the finish and we will probably see Flecha, Erviti and LL Sanchez all giving it a go tomorrow. 

I'm also having a small interest in a match bet accumulator:

Joaquim Rodriguez vs Sergio Luis Henao 11/20
Michael Matthews vs Tyler Farrar 1/4
Gianni Meersman vs Edvald Boasson Hagen 3/4
Phillipe Gilbert vs Fabian Cancellara 1/3
Luis Leon Sanchez vs Rinaldo Nocentini 3/4
Michael Morkov vs Juan Antonio Flecha 1/4
R.J. Van Rensburg vs Anthony Roux 2/5

It pays 12.83/1 with Bet365