Vuelta Stage 12 Preview

Stage 12 - Maella to Tarragona, 164.2km

What was the ride of the day for you in today's time trial? There were plenty to pick from to be fair. Cancellara obviously was sublime, blowing away the opposition and the notions that he would be either tired or taking it easy.

Martin up to then was well clear of all the rest and traded to a low of 1/10 in running as it looked like no-one would beat him, but unfortunately for me and my main bet he was easily beaten in the end. Pozzovivo also rode the TT of his life to take a top 3 spot, it was probably the shock of the day, particularly to all those that steamed in to Bet365's mispriced match bet with Rafael Majka.. They went 13/8 which looked way too big, I think others were 4/5 or something like that. I tried to get on but missed it and was glad I did when Pozzo tore up the course, even beating Tony Martin to the 1st and 2nd time checks.

Next of course was the ride by Nicholas Roche. It's no secret I am a big fan and admirer of him for many years, having met him a few times, but even I was blown away by how well he rode today. He has clearly come on in leaps and bounds under Riis this year. It was no secret that he was working hard with Riis over the winter on his time trialling (and it was one of the reasons Roche mentioned as to why he joined Saxo) and also now he is revealing how he was more than 2kgs overweight in the Tour. This hindered him while climbing but he also said the power he was producing on the flat parts was the highest of his career. So clearly the plan was always the Vuelta and the talk about who the leader would be was probably all bluff - which may well have been the reason he was able to get away on the stage he won.

Nibali also rode a great TT to take over the red jersey by 33" from Roche, and just missed out on landing the 14/1 each-way bet I recommended - by just 1 second to Pozzo!! Valverde was unlucky to puncture, costing him about 20-30" but he also moved up to 3rd spot, while Rodriguez and Horner both suffered and lost time to the leaders - Horner is now 4th, 46" back, Rodriguez is 5th 2'33" back. Thankfully I got something back from the match bet I recommended, with Sanchez comfortably beating Horner to bely the generous odds of 12/5. 

The GC men will have to take a break from doing battle for a few days now though as we move on to Stage 12. The route heads east to the coast on a relatively short stage of 164km and it looks like a perfect day for a break to go early, but will likely to end in a sprint. The stage starts uphill for about the first 40km then drops sharply down to the town of Asco. Then the road kicks up a little again after 65km and rises up for about the next 25km, peaking at the Cat 3 Alto del Collet at 560m. It is a fast run in to the finish then so any breaks that get over the top clear will have their work cut out as the sprinters teams chase them down.

With 2km to go the road rises up a little but the last kilometer is pretty flat, with a small rise near the line. The last five kilometers (see map in the tabs below) look a bit tricky and seems to have quite a few roundabouts to deal with so it could get a bit sketchy. What we have seen so far in the Vuelta though is that without their leadout A-Teams, the sprinters teams have by and large made a complete mess of the few chances they have had to take sprint wins. Will they get it right this time or will riders be left to fight for themselves again? 

I won't even begin to start trying to cherry pick some breakaway candidates right now, but will be watching Twitter tomorrow morning to see if any team suggests their riders are up for giving it a go like Argos did the other day with Preidler (whom I backed at 210/1 and layed back at 26/1 when he was in the break of the day). So I am putting my eggs in the sprinters basket though for tomorrow.. 

The favourite is Michael Matthews, and this is based obviously on his strong showing in the sprints of last week when he took a stage win, a 6th and a 14th place finish. The Orica Green-edge squad does look like the most organised and powerful in the final few kms and Matthews does look one of the best of getting in the right position so I can see why he is favourite, but I think he might be a little short at 5/2 with the unknowns of what the mountains, rest day and the TT will have done to all involved.

Tyler Farrar is 2nd Favourite at best price 5/1 and its about time Garmin got themselves sorted for a finish and give him a proper chance. He is looking fast, but is just not being put in the right place and doesn't look like he has the neck to put himself in the right positions or get on the right wheel. Richeze has two 2nd place finishes to his name and will be scrapping for a good wheel to come off of again, as with a roundabout 300m to go, if you are not in the first 3 or 4 coming out it then you probably will not win. He seems to have a knack of doing that well so I can see him placing in the top 3 again. Meersman doesn't seem to have the speed to really challenge the faster guys and Argos just seem to get it wrong more often than right so I am not backing any of them. Edvald BH is being mentioned as someone who will like the uphill drag over the last 2kms but I don't think he will be involved. Robert Wagner stole in to a placing already but I don't think he will be in the first 3 tomorrow, that finish requires an experienced head I think.

So it's hard to pick a winner from the shortlist but I am going to lean towards Matthews if I can get 4/1 or bigger on Betfair. I think Richeze and Farrar can fill the other top 3 places and make Meersman, EBH and the Argos boys lays to place tomorrow.

I also fancy some matchbets:

Farrar to beat Richeze at 3/4

Matthews to beat Wagner at 2/5

Meersman to beat EBH at 17/20

A treble on these 3 pays out 7/2 with Bet365.