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Published on Monday, 20 August 2018 14:44

Vuelta Stage 2

Marbella – Caminito del Rey

Sunday Aug 26th, 163.9kms

Stage two, and like in 2015 we're already on an uphill finish with the climb to the summit of Caminito del Rey. Back in 2015, it was Esteban Chaves who announced himself to the big time on this mountain with a superb late attack to take the win. 

It was a stunning win, and I was left stunned as well after landing my biggest price winner ever after Chaves skipped away from Tom Dumoulin near the summit to land the stage win, I had picked him out at 200/1 for the stage.. (right)

The break were caught about 10kms from the finish, Tom Dumoulin attacked as the road kicked up 2.9kms from the finish, but was chased down. Nairo Quintana attacked, but didn't really get that far, then Chaves pushed hard with 2kms to go and Nico Roche and his cousin Dan Martin gave chase. Surprisingly it was Roche who kicked on with Dumoulin and Chaves, with Martin chasing behind. 

Dumoulin and Chaves dropped Roche in the last kilometer and Chaves sprinted away from Dumoulin on the tough uphill finish, with Roche hanging on for 3rd from Martin. Quintana came home 26" down, Froome was just behind him, and Aru 37" down, but Nibali last 1'26" and David de la Cruz lost almost 3 minutes.  

It's a slightly different, easier finish to the stage this year though as they finish on the Alto de Guadalhorce, it's not as steep as the climb to the Alto de la Mesa used in 2015. That year they came from the north side of the mountain, down the roads that they ride up after passing the Alto de Guadalhorce for the first time after 91kms and went straight up to the top of the Alto de la Mesa, a very different finish to this one that averaged about 7% for the final 3kms, with parts hitting 15%. This finish is just 3.3% for 5.5kms, but does average 5.2% for the last kilometre. 

Stage 1 Review

Pleased with that start, the two recommended bets won for a profit of 3.4pts as Dennis put them all to the sword with a stunning TT. If you did take the 5pts at over 1/2, you added some more to the pot.. I backed him at 1.56, but he went to almost evens in play after Kwiat set a blistering time.. Great ride by Kwiat to beat the Euro champion by 1", but it was enough to win the matchbet.. It was then 10" back to Nelson Oliveira with a cracking time in 5th and Dylan Van Baarle, who had sat in the hot seat for 2 hours was 3" back in 5th.

Surprise of the day though was Alessandro de Marchi in 6th, but Jonathan Castroviejo was probably a little disappointed with 7th. There was another surprise in Simon Geschke in 8th, but I was pretty pleased also with the performance of his team-mate Wilko Kelderman who came home in 10th, gaining time on every GC rival. Richie Porte had a terrible time, losing 51", he must be still suffering from the effects of the gastro problems he's had in the last few days. Most of the other GC men finished pretty close to each other, but after Kelderman, Valverde will be the happiest, he's 6" ahead of Quintana. 

The Route

Around 1km of flat along the coast as they leave Marbella, then as they head inland they start climbing straight away, going over the Cat 2 Puerto de Ojen after just 7.5kms.. From there they wind their way north over rolling, typical Spanish terrain for 60kms, and start on to a loop to the south-east of the finishing climb. First though, they roll up and through the intermediate sprint point after 85kms, and that's 1.5kms after starting on the Cat 3 Alto de Guadalhorce strangely. 

They are coming up towards the finish line of the Caminito del Rey, just from the east side, whereas in 2015 they approached the Guadalhorce from the north. Just before the finish line, after cresting the climb, they carry straight on down the roads they came up in 2015, looping around the lakes, along a plateau and on to the Cat 3 Alto de Ardales (3.1kms at 4.9%), then descend back on to the road that they came up 70kms or so earlier. 

The final climb is 5.5kms at just 3.3% average, but is very easy for the first 3kms, then kicks up a bit more for the last 5kms, the toughest part being between 3kms and 1.5kms to go, where it averages closer to 6%, then eases back a little for the last kilometre.

There are lots of steeper parts around 6-7%, but it also eases back and is almost flat in places so there is lots of opportunities for regrouping. As they hit the last kilometre there is a very tight left bend over a bridge (first picture below), then it straightens out and the road widens as it heads straight up at around 3% (second picture below). At the top of the hill they turn sharp right for the last stretch to the line at around 2% for 150m or so (last picture). You will need to be in the first 5 through that final bend to have a chance of winning I think, as it straightens up for a sprint finish, if indeed it is a sprint finish. 

Favourites and Contenders

So this is an interesting stage to start the race off with, we have a finish location that has been used before, only three years ago, but it's a very different finish entirely.. This is a gentle drag up to the finish, compared to the nasty, steep climb that blew the race apart back then and Chaves danced away with Dumoulin.. We'll get our early break, someone will fancy wearing the first KOM jersey, and with a Cat 2 after just 7.5kms it's going to be a hell of a battle for it..

In fact, I doubt the break will actually form properly until after the KOM as lots of teams will want in on the points battle and it might be like a sprint leadout coming up to it.. It might settle down once that is out of the way and the break might then start to build up a decent lead.

They will probably hold on until the next two Cat 3's are crossed, but they should be reeled in in the the next 35kms or so as the GC teams and those with designs on a stage win up the pace. I think it will be all together as they start the 7km final climb and some teams will really up the pace to strip the peloton right down. But as it's not too difficult, and with lots of fresh legs in the peloton it might be that we still have 50 or so riders coming to the last 5kms.

One thing though, it's a very narrow road for the most of it, with cliff faces on their sides for quite a lot of it. It will be hard to pass, and any mistakes could be punished with a crash or a puncture. 

The section from about 3.5kms to go to 1.5kms to go are the hardest, around 5% average as it kicks up through some twisty bends (right), and it could be stripped down a little further again, or at the very least, it will be very strung out, in one long line, with only the very strongest guys at the front. It will be hard to get up to contest the finish if you're 30 riders or more back..

There's one last steepish part just inside 2kms to go before it levels out for the run to the finish. There are lots of parts along the way though where it does ease off to almost be a false flat, so there are opportunities for a regrouping if you are just hanging off the back. 

This isn't really a climb for your pure climber, this is a climb for your punchy sort of rider with a good sprint finish. So Peter Sagan has to considered as a strong contender on this stage, that is, as long as he has recovered from his injuries at the Tour de France.. He might not be 100% yet, he clearly was very uncomfortable in the Euros at Glasgow, but sometimes, even a 90% Sagan can beat most other rivals. 

If he is close to 100% though, he is the man to beat on this finish, Bora-Hansgrohe will have a super-powerful leadout for him, with Burghardt, Postlberger, Majka, Formolo and McCarthy, who should be dominating the front of the race in the last 3kms, dragging Sagan to that last kilometre. If he gets to the last bend in the first five, he probably wins. Should Sagan not be 100%, they have a good alternative in Jay McCarthy, it's a similar sort of finish to the TDU stage to Stirling where he has finished 1st and 3rd in the past. At an ok price of 28/1, he could be a cheeky outsider to go against a short price, and possibly not 100% Sagan.. 

His biggest rival could well be Movistar's Alejandra Valverde, who will love this finish too. He has identified this stage as one that he is capable of winning and his Movistar team could be the chief rivals to B-H in the last 3kms, battling to drag him to the last kilometre also. Oliveira, Amador, Erviti and Bennati will take control ahead of Valverde and look to drop him off in the first 5 hitting that last bend also. And we know what he's like on an uphill sprint finish in Spain, very few can beat him. 

A third big danger on a finish like this, with the form he is in is Michal Kwiatkowski. We saw what sort of condition he is in today with that amazing TT ride, he's flying. He tore the field apart on a number of occassions in the Tour of Poland on finishes like this, he will be right there at the front with his Sky team-mates too and has a great kick on an uphill finish. It could see him take the red jersey very early in the race too, which must be a hug incentive for him, but also a burden that maybe Sky don't really want.. I'd say if the chance is there for him though, he'll take it, they can always let someone else take over on stage 4 maybe from the break. 

There is the possibility too that Matteo Trentin can hang in there until the finish, and if so he'd have a chance in the uphill sprint. We saw how strong he was in Glasgow and he took a fine 5th against all the sprinters in the EuroEyes Classic, he has the form, but has he the legs to hang in there with a flying bunch of climber up that last 5kms? He might be close, I think maybe the Yates's and Albasini will be a big help to him, I don't think it's steep enough for either of the Yates' brothers to go for the win, they might save themselves for stage 4. 5/1 is a lot shorter than what I was expecting when I wrote this first though... 

Another two who could hang in there to fight out an uphill sprint finish are Fabio Felline and Giacomo Nizzolo. Felline might be able to hang in there and could like this uphill finish, he has a lot of top tens in finishes like this over the years, but he has only won one race in three seasons, the Trofeo Lagueglia in February of last year. 

Giacomo Nizzolo looks to be coming in to good form these days after an interrupted season. He has finished in the top 10 in every one of the last 10 sprint finishes he has contested, including 3rd at the Ride Surrey and 6th at the EuroEyes Classic. 5th on the Hatta Dam earlier in the season in the Dubai Tour, he's well able to deal with gradients like this and if it comes to a small bunch sprint, he could well be part of it. He will have Bauke Mollema and Gianluca Brambilla to help him, Mollema's big engine will get him in a good position. And if he is out of it for some reason, Brambilla also has a chance as he's not bad at all at an uphill finish. 

I'm not sure Elia Viviani will be able to hang in there though, I think he's a poor price at 7/1, and forget about Nacer Bouhanni at 40/1, I think I'd have more chance of winning tomorrow. Ivan Garcia Cortina might go close for Bahrain, he's not got a bad sprint on him if he gets to the finale in contention, he's a decent looking price at 80/1. Thibaut Pinot is a GC man who could be up there sprinting for the stage, depending on how hard they made it in the last 3kms, Rigo Uran also, but I think there are several who will be too good for them.  

One dark horse I like though is Simon Geschke at a big 150/1 - he was superb today to finish 8th, he must have very good legs and he has done ok in uphill sprint finishes in the past. You'd never know, at that sort of price he's worth a nibble. Tiejs Benoot, Gorka Izagirre, Michael Woods, Dani Moreno and Jose Goncalves are also capable of a good ride on this finish, but I'm not sure they'll be in the top 5. 

I really like the top 5 or 6 in the betting for this, I find it hard to split them and I don't think there will be much between them. Trentin is very short though, I'd want 8/1 on him I think, and I'm worried about Sagan. So I'm going to have a go on Nizzolo at 16/1, McCarthy at 28/1 and Geschke at 150/1..  

Update 26/8, 12:00 - I have started to look at stage 3 this morning and one rider that came on my radar for tomorrow's sprint finish was Jon Aberasturi for Euskadi.. I have written a lot more about him in tomorrow's preview, but he's not a bad sprinter at all (16 top 7 finishes this year, including a stage win in Vuelta Aragon, and he likes a lumpy finish.. then I checked and he was 400/1 for today's stage.. why not.. at that price, he might just get involved.. Added a matchbet double now too, 365 seem to have finally woken up to allowing multiples. 

Recommendations:

1pt e/w on Giacomo Nizzolo at 16/1 with 365

0.5pts e/w on Jay McCarthy at 28/1 with 365

0.25pts e/w on Simon Geschke at 150/1 

0.1pts e/w on Jon Aberasturias at 400/1 with 365

Matchbets:

Nizzolo to beat Viviani - 2pts at 5/4

McCarthy to beat Felline - 2pts at evens

Formolo to beat Majka - 2pts at evens

Buchmann to beat Aru and Benoot to beat Gallopin - 2pts at 1.14/1 with 365