Contenders and Favourites

I think we could see the break make it today, the GC has settle down a little now and they'll be gearing up for the monster stage to the Esp summit at La Covatilla the next day.. So it's hard to see them chasing a break down today, they'll be happy to let them fight it out. The opening lumpy 35kms will allow the break to fight to get clear with a climb after 16kms and 32kms and the 20kms drag up to the top of the Cat 3 climb after 82kms will help a strong break to build up a decent lead. 

From there, the road is mostly downhill for the rest of the stage, but with a pull up to the finish for the last 5kms or so. The battle will be on for the breakers to either attack and get away from each other, or to try to win the final dash to the line if there's a small group. 

So it's break lottery time - do we go for the obvious again in Thomas de Gendt, Luis Angel Maté and Alessandro de Marchi? Maybe not this time, They might wait for a tougher stage, or one with more KOM points. One guy on the Lotto squad though that I did have my eye on for a stage at some point, was Sander Armée, as I mentioned a few stages ago. This is a similar stage to the stage he won last year which had three small hills in the middle and an uphill drag to the line, but it hit 10% for the last 2kms, where he rode away from Lutsenko. At a big price of 300 he's one I'm happy to give another go at here. 

Or could this be the day we see Tiesj Benoot finally? He has been silly prices for nearly every stage so far, people have been backing him on every type of stage, regardless of the terrain. I think though that this is much more his sort of stage and the finish might not be too bad for him either, he's capable of finishing well on an uphill finish like that. At 50/1 he's much more like a bet. 

BMC really need to start to do something in this race though, that was a crazy attack by Porte on stage 6, maybe he was just pissed off with everything in the team, his team-mates etc and just decided to go up the road on his own for the day?! Then we had Nico Roche throwing a strop at the other guys around him at the finish of the stage as they hadn't pulled enough, and De Marchi frustrated enough to go off on his own with over 70kms to go on stage 5.

Maybe it's Dylan Teuns or Nico Roche's turn to get up the road? They are both far enough down on GC now to be given a little freedom, although Roche's 5 minutes is a lot more dangerous than Teuns' 26 minutes. For that reason, I'm going to wait on Roche until he's lost more time, and I think he will get stronger as this race goes on too, when he won his stage in 2015 it was on stage 18. So Teuns is worth a shot to get in the break, he also gives us a chance if they are caught for the uphill finish. 40/1 is acceptable.

Georg Preidler won a fine stage in Poland ahead of Kwiat, Yates, Teuns and Buchmann with a clever piece of riding late in the stage. He's very strong, he might be given more freedom now that Pinot has slid down the GC, maybe he'll give it a go, and again at 400/1, why not... Fabio Felline was one who might have liked this stage, but after his crash Thursday I'm steering clear for now. 

Omar Fraile might like this stage, but he also might be waiting for Sunday's stage, it is a lot more suitable to him, and if he has designs on the KOM jersey, a lot more points available too. Gorka Izagirre could be another to infiltrate the break, he's over 10 mins down, but he has been struggling on some of these stages way too early for me to be interested for now.

Other Spanish riders who might fancy it are José Herrada of Cofidis, he's just over 10 mins down and has been riding ok of late. He finished 5th in a similar stage of Itzulia earlier in the year from a break with Omar Fraile and Mark Padun. He rarely wins though, so he might just be worth a tiny e/w for an interest in case he does get in the break. He's not priced up by 365 for now though, let's see if they add him, he'd probably be 400/1 or something too. 

Mark Padun has actually been in pretty good form this year too and could well fancy getting involved if Gorka doesn't want to go up the road a day ahead of a tough mountain stage. Ten top 10s this year, including a win in the Tour of the Alps, he's capable of a good ride on this stage and this finish. He's also 400/1!

I think Sergio Pardilla might wait for a tougher stage, but Jonathan Lastra was on the attack on stage 5, winning the sprint for 8th from his little group and he finished 6th in a similar sort of finish in the Vuelta a Burgos stage 5 when he beat Lopez and DDLC, and 7th on a VERY similar profile on stage 1 from a little break. He could be worth chancing at a big price too of 300/1. 

Maybe Matteo Trentin will fancy a day in the break? He's won on a similar stage from a break before, but also, if the break doesn't make it, he might have a chance in the uphill sprint. He struggled, like a lot of other guys on that tough finish today, so if he thinks tomorrow will be too tough for him too he might fancy getting in a break he can win from. He won't be doing anything Sunday and Monday is a rest day, so why not? He's short at 20/1, but I think he has to come close to winning an uphill sprint sooner or later. 

Of course, the break might not make it, they were kept on a very tight leash today and the lead never got above 4 mins or so. The betting says that a rejuvenated Peter Sagan wins it, he's just 2/1, and you can see why, he flew up that final hill today and tomorrow's stage arguably suits him even more. Elia Viviani is just 11/2, and that's a bit short for me, even though he held in there for quite a long time today, I think that he might struggle and lose position in the run in again, if he's still in the front group. Alejandro Valverde will also be close on a sprint like this of course and Michal Kwiatkowski might be out to try to steal back some time with the time bonuses after losing 44" today. 

Giacomo Nizzolo could be a big danger to them though in an uphill sprint like this, but he seems to get lost way too easily on the hills lately, he might have most of his sprinting powers back, but I'm not sure he has the stamina and climbing power yet to stay there when the going gets tough. I can't see Nacer Bouhanni being involved this time, or Danny Van Poppel, but Omar Fraile seems to have good uphill sprinting legs on him and Ryan Gibbons might be able to get closer this time too, I might look to back him in play e/w if the race looks like coming back together for a sprint. 

I think it's 60/40 that the break makes it tomorrow so am going to pluck for some massive price outsiders who might give us a run for our money. Trentin is carrying some of our cash again, hopefully he can start rewarding us soon, be it from the break or the sprint. 

Update - 15:00 - crap break, sprint coming up, I'm adding Gibbons e/w like I said I would, 50/1 is a nice price for him, think he can maybe go close to a top 3. 

Recommendations -

0.2pts win on Sande Armee at 300/1

0.2pts win on Jonathan Lastra at 300/1

0.2pts win on Mark Padun at 400/1

0.2pts win on Georg Preidler at 400/1

0.3pts win on Tiesj Benoot at 50/1

0.3pts e/w on Dylan Teuns at 40/1

0.5pts win on Matteo Trentin at 25/1

0.3pts e/w on Ryan Gibbons at 50/1 with Will Hill in play

Matchbets

Valverde to beat Kwiatkowski and Buchmann to beat Enric Mas - 2pts at 1.4/1

Gibbons to beat Van Asbroeck and Sagan to beat Viviani - 2pts at evens

Quintana to beat Aru - 3.3pts at 8/11