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Published on Tuesday, 28 August 2018 22:04

Vuelta Stage 5

Granada – Roquetas de Mar

Wed. 29th August, 188kms

A lumpy day in the saddle, a typical Vuelta 'medium mountains' stage which seems to hardly have a flat kilometre of road in the whole stage, but could finish in a sprint for those who can hang on over the final climb. 

This is a really lumpy day in the saddle again, and another hot day in the saddle, up close to 30 degrees. There are so many hills on this stage that are uncategorised, you'd be forgiven for thinking it will be an easy enough day in the saddle as officially it has just two categorised climbs, the second of which averages just 4.1%. Easy, peasy right?

Well, we've seen already that a lot of riders are losing a lot of time once the road goes uphill, but Viviani and all the sprinters had no problems with the climbing on stage 3, will it be the same situation here? Will the sprinters teams be able to control the race on such a tough and lumpy course? This final Cat 2 climb isn't very hard at all, but it does come at the end of a lumpy stage, rather than at the start of it like on stage 2, will the outcome be slightly different for the sprinters? It is definitely going to be raced at a much harder pace than the sedate pace that was seen on the first climb on stage 2, we could have some casualties tomorrow. 

Stage 4 Review

A pretty disappointing break went away today, Rolland and Maté continue their ding-dong battle for the KOM jersey, getting in the break for like the third day running. The lead grew very slowly at first, it was just over 3 mins hitting the first climb, but Sky just downed tools in the peloton, and nobody else took up the chasing. By the top of the hill they had over 5 minutes and with 70kms to go it was over 9 mins. Instead of coming down, the gap kept going up. 

Rolland, the most experienced and best climber of the group traded in to odds on, going as short as 1/5 on Betfair, but when King, Stalnov and Wallays attacked away at the bottom of the final climb, Rolland stalled.. playing it cool, hoping maybe they'd crack further up. But instead, Rolland couldn't close the gap to less than about 18" all the way up the climb, and Stalnov and King both rolled in to the last kilometre eyeing each other up. Suddenly, with 400m to go, Rolland appeared just behind them, but they started to wind up their sprints and he couldn't get back on. 

King took the sprint to take a very impressive, and much-needed win for Dimension Data, but behind Simon Yates exploded out of the pack, had 20" or more at one point, but Manu Buchmann came charging after him in the last kilometre, and almost caught him on the line. Two very impressive finishes out of those two, Yates went hard, but it was a short effort and he didn't kill himself. Lopez also attacked the GC group and gained 8" at the finish to make up some of what he lost on stage 2. Kwiat did well to hang on to his red jersey though, but it's all very tight at the top. 

With Rolland and Maté in 1st and 2nd position in the KOM competition though, should we be considering their chances for their jersey then? Well Maté has a nice lead already, doing something similar to Villella last year, so he has a nice start.. and he says that he is going to go after points whenever he can and keep chasing for the jersey. But also, he's a local boy in the Granada region and there was probably an element of putting on a show for the friends and family, it will be very hard for him to keep that up for the three weeks, he's been up the road three days running now.  

Rolland has said publicly that he is being given the freedom from EF to have some fun for a few days, but will then be required to work for Uran once the race starts to get serious.. He showed signs of fatigue towards the end today after three days in the break, we might not see him in a break for a few days. There are lots of points still to be won in this race, and in short, I think Maté is far too short now to be backing, I'm not sure he'll stay the course, and Rolland is going to be working for Uran soon. 

The Route

They set off from Granada and head back towards the coast, on a rolling route that barely sees a flat kilometre of road for 140kms. I count at least seven uncategorised hills they need to get over along the 188.7km course, but there are only two categorised climbs on the profile. The first is a short but punchy Cat 3 after 51kms (4kms at 7%) and the road rolls along over multiple climbs and descents for the next 70kms, taking in the intermediate sprint with 61kms to go and a sharp little hill shortly after before a fast 15km descent. 

The second categorised climb is a Cat 2 of 10.8kms at 4.1%, although the climb to the top of the Alto El Marchal is a good 10kms longer than that from the bottom of the hill. It tops out with just 26.7kms to go, of which about 18kms are descending. The final climb is long in its entirety then, but not too difficuly, i t's the pace it will be tackled rather than the steepness that will shake out some of the stragglers and sprinters. 

For those that can hang in there, there's a 9km run to the line for teams to get their remaining riders in to a sprint train and try to line up their sprinters, the finish is pretty uncomplicated and dead flat, the only complication might be a head wind as they head towards the seafront. With just over 1km to go there is a wide arcing roundabout that they go around to turn left, then it straightens up for about 500m, there's a kink right around an island and a sharp left and then a long straight sprint to the line. 

Contenders and Favourites

Another stage to ponder whether the break can make it or not. We got a rubbish break go up the road today, but they still pulled off the win as Sky, Movistar, M-S and LJ played chicken with each other to see who would take up the pulling. As it was, no one did, and Sky just set a sedate tempo all day. And maybe M-S are ruing letting an opportunity of a stage win go, seeing how easily Yates dispatched all the others, but it might have been a different situation up front if they were all fighting for the stage win, Yates might not have been let go so easily with the time bonuses and jersey on the line. 

They are climbing right from the start of this stage and have another two little pulls in the next 30kms to deal with, making it a very tricky and difficult start to control and riders will be attacking aggressively again to get in the break of the day, as they could make it. If they can get over that last climb with a minute or two lead then they will hang on, as it's downhill/flat all the way to the finish. Riders will have seen today that no other GC team are interested in pulling right now, it's up to Sky, and seeing as they don't have a sprinter, there's no need for them to reel in a non-dangerous break. 

The team that will be responsible for chasing though are a very strong and capable one, QSF will be eyeing up a second stage win for Elia Viviani, as long as they can get him to the last 400m near the front, Mikael Morkov will do his job with Sabatini and Viviani will cruise home. 

His biggest rival will again be Giacomo Nizzolo I think, he was best of the rest on Monday, but Viviani was too good for him. He needs his leadout to help him a bit better and try to disrupt Viviani's leadout, and maybe he'll be able to get his nose in front if he gets the jump on Viviani. Coming from behind Viviani just isn't going to work, Viviani is just too fast. He is getting faster and faster though, his form is starting to come and if for whatever reason Viviani has been shelved out on the course, Nizzolo is best placed to take advantage.  

Peter Sagan admits himself that he still isn't 100%, but he can't be far off after finishing 3rd in the 3rd stage. It was probably more down to his supreme skills and positioning than his actual speed that got him there, he was in the right place, at the right time hitting the last 200m. You just know that Sagan will be up there fighting for wheels in the last two roundabouts, but seeing as it's a long finishing straight, he may not have the top end speed yet to take Viviani. Also, with Buchmann showing how strong he was today, will it be all about protecting him from now on, or will they want to waste energy getting behind a 90% fit Sagan?

Nacer Bouhanni - you just know that he's going to click some day and he'll surprise everyone. He was back in 4th on Monday, but he wasn't that far back at all - AND it was reported that his chain jumped in the last 600m and he lost the wheel.. Cofidis have this weird situaton going on where the team management don't support him and as a result he finds himself fighting on his own, but I think he showed with a decent 4th place that he deserves to be given some support or a leadout of some sort and he might just be able to challenge Viviani. 

Simone Consonni was just behind him in 5th place, so not far off at all, but from what I recall he was sprinting sitting down, a sure sign that he was absolutely on his limit and couldn't get closer. I might watch him this time around to see how he goes before maybe looking to back him a little later in the race again. 

Danny Van Poppel made several mistakes in the run-in on stage 3, he was way too far back when the sprint opened up, something that happens to him quite a lot. He did finish quite fast though, if he could only start his sprint from on the wheel of Viviani or Nizzolo he might have a chance. He was quite close in a number of stages in the Giro, if he can hit top gear he's also capable of landing a podium. 

Matteo Trentin was a disappointment in stage 3 down in 9th, but apparently he had an incident late on in the stage which affected him. A flatter sprint is not really his thing though against the likes of Viviani, he might be outside the podium places again, but should be in the top 10. Ryan Gibbons and Tom Van Asbroeck in 9th and 10th will need luck to fall their way to get any closer I think, but could well be capable of a top 10 finish again. Garcia Cortina, Sarreau, Abersturi and Prades are all going to be on the fringes trying to break in to the top 10 again too. 

Of course, there is another possibility too in this stage finish.. the break gets caught on the final climb and we get some late attacks that sprint over the top, charge down the other side and try to hold on over the last 10kms.. think Roglic or Mohoric if they were here.. Nibali is a candidate, but unlikely to do it, maybe someone like Lukas Postlberger, Bauke Mollema (lost 11 minutes today and is apparently just here for stage wins..), Fabio Felline or Victor Lampaerts who did good TTs, and Campa will be looking to make up for his tumble on stage 2.

There's also a chance that Felline could get himself in the break of the day, so I think he's worth having onside, even if he is just 16/1, clearly the 365 trader is thinking along the same lines. And other break candidates - well, any one of about 60 guys again. De Marchi, De Gendt, Gougeard, Geniez, Maté, Rolland, Teuns, Goncalves etc etc etc.. Thomas De Gendt might be worth a go as he had a rest today, and Georg Preidler is another guy I was thinking might be interested in tomorrow's stage, he was in good form in the Tour of Poland taking a fine stage win.

And finally, Dries Devenyns.. He was in great form earlier in the season but crashed in Paris Nice and  was out for months but is starting to show signs of coming back to form and took a fine 14th place on the stage 2 finish. This might be a stage that he will like, and with Viviani possibly not going to be involved in the finish, maybe QSF will want to get a rider in the break. 

Looking at the prices on 365 they are as confused as the rest of us I think, they still have Viviani as favourite, but he's 8/1, and the GC men aren't far off in the betting either, with the likes of Valvere and Kwiat around 25/1. 

I think the break wins again, and it could be a big group and we could even get the likes of Sagan in there, and the 10/1 would look like a gift. Not a stage to go crazy on I think, even with the matchbets, it could be all over the place tomorrow and it's impossible to predict how it will go. Small bet on Nizzolo too in case it does come to a sprint. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts win on Fabio Felline at 16/1

0.3pts win on Bauke Mollema at 80/1

0.4pts e/w on Giacomo Nizzolo at 33/1

0.3pts win on Thomas de Gendt at 22/1

0.3pts win on Dries Devenyns at 22/1

0.3pts win on Georg Preidler at 66/1

Matchbets

Not placing any matchbets, if a break wins there could be 6 or 8 in it, so the sprinters may not be interested in sprinting and form goes out the window. Same with the GC men.