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- Published on Sunday, 26 August 2018 23:54
Vuelta Stage 3
Mijas – Alhaurín de la Torre
Mon 27th August, 182.5kms
It's only stage three, but we already tackle a Cat 1 climb in the hills above Torremolinos, but the road gradually works its way back down to the flatlands over the remaining 135kms for what could be a sprint finish.
It might only be stage 3, but this is the Vuelta, no messing about here, straight in to a Cat 1.. Is it hard enough to blow the race apart? Well, as always with these sorts of questions, the answer depends on how hard the riders want to make it. It's only stage 3, so there are lots of fresh guys with ambitions of winning the stage while their legs are still fresh, and there's the possibility of taking the KOM jersey too. So the break will ride hard.
Then the teams who won't want Viviani or Bouhanni at the finish will want to distance them early on a 20km climb and have them 3-4 mins behind at the top so that the elastic will snap and they'll be forced to just ride home in the autobus. If they can get 3-4 mins, it'll be hard to see them coming back, and if they do, they'll be really tired from chasing and won't have a leadout to speak of at the finish. So it definitely is in the interests of Trek, M-S and Movistar to push it hard from the bottom of the first climb.
On the other hand, it's only stage 3 and there's a tough finish coming up tomorrow.. will some teams be thinking about this? Will they just decide to roll up the first climb, let the break gain 5-6 mins and then control it? If so, then the break should be reeled in, there are not too many chances for the sprinters really in this race, so QSF will be keen to get off the mark early with Viviani. I'm not sure Sky will want to control it all day, they don't have a sprinter in their ranks, so it will be interesting to see who will take it up - a strong break, and a reluctant peloton could see the break make it.
Bets were very disappointing, Nizzolo was well off the pace, McCarthy was disappointing, especially as Sagan was dropped a long way from home, and Geschke was working for Kelderman but still came home in 37th. Formolo won his bet, but annoyingly, Nizzolo and Viviani came home in the grupetto and Viviani beat him by 6 places. So a pretty crap day, let's hope for better luck tomorrow. Our three GC men have all shortened up though, Kelderman, Pinot and Lopez have all started pretty well.
Stage 2 Review
So it looks like Richie Porte's Vuelta is over before it even began as he rolled home today 13'31" down, with the red jersey alongside him, all's not well in the BMC camp today it seems. We should never have doubted Valverde eh, the man is incredible, at 38 he's outsprinting this entire peloton, even outsprinting Michal Kwiatkowski who's in superb form. Great ride from Laurens de Plus to attack and hang on for 3rd place, but look at Wilko Kelderman coming in in 4th just behind him, for now there doesn't seem to be much to worry about with his form, he's halved in price to 14/1 from 28/1 as he sits in 3rd overall.
Nairo is now 2/1 favourite with Yates 4/1 and Lopez 11/2.. Lopez lost 19" though today, a sloppy loss of time. Uran, Kelderman, Pinot and Quintana stole 5" on their rivals, but others struggled, Dan Martin and Ilnur Zakarin lost over a minute, Zakarin crashed and hit his elbow and shoulder. Tao Gaoghan Hart lost 1'26" and Vincenzo Nibali clearly wasn't lying about his form, he came home over 4' down. Adam Yates came home with Porte and Dennis and is over 14' down already, Simon fared better to finish just 8" down.
The Route
A flat, neutral start almost for about 22kms along the coast before they turn right at San Pedro de Alcantara and immediately start climbing the Cat 1 Puerto del Madrono, This is a nasty Cat 1 climb on only their second day on the road that goes on for 20kms, but isn't too hard an overall average gradient at 4.9%. There are parts that hit 7 and 10.5%, but generally it's steady around 3-6%.
There will be a strong break go, anyone who has designs on the KOM jersey will see it as an early opportunity to rack up 10pts and probably take the jersey, and after looping around to their right there's an opportuntiy for 3 more points on the Puerto del Viento, a Cat 3 climb of 10kms at 3.3%.
From there it is mostly downhill for the next 40kms or so, although there is a sharp little uncategorised lump on the Puerto de las Abejas after 98kms. After they pass Coin after 135kms the road starts to rise again, with some steep parts, but mostly a pretty gentle gradient that takes them through the intermediate sprint point with just 26kms to go.
Then it's a fast descent for the next 12kms down to Toremelinos as they run along the coast, befor they turn back inland with 6kms to go. The road is rising slightly all the way to the finsh, and with just over 4kms to go they take a sharp left and head straight towards the finish in Alhaurin de la Torre. It's a long straight for the next 2kms, but with 2kms to go they hit a big roundabout that they can go either side of, it could well determine who is at the front of the leadout for the last km depending on which side you go. (right)
It is still pretty much straight all the way to the line, but they do have to negotiate two rounadbouts in the next kilometre and another one with just 600m to go (below) but then it's a very fast and more or less straight run to the line for the last 400m or so. The road does arc around to the right a little bit, but it shouldn't cause any issues whatsover.
Route Map
Profile
Puerto del Madrono
Last kms
Contenders and Favourites
The question I guess for this stage is how much time Elia Viviani and the sprinters lose on that opening Cat 1 climb, and whether it's too much to be able to get back on again. There will definitely be teams with an interest in getting rid of them and putting as much time as possible in to them, such as Trek for Giacomo Nizzolo, Movistar for Valverde and Mitchelton-Scott for Trentin. I was thinking Nizzolo might make it when I started writing this Sunday morning, but he struggled along with Viviani today and finished over 13 mins down. The other teams know that and will look to get rid of them.
Of course the break has a chance, but if the peloton does push really hard on the first climb, there might not actually be a break go until possibly the Cat 3 later on.. the peloton goes hard, drops all the sprinters, they gain a 3 min advantage and then settle down to riding a fast tempo to keep them at bay.. then finally a break might go.. Of course it could be that they go at the bottom of the first climb, the peloton decides to just roll up it and they'll be gone.. so many things to ponder about on just the opening climb!!
But here's how I see it going down.. a furious opening 20kms, flat out in to the bottom of the climb, sprinters put in trouble early on and eventually a grupetto forms. QSF will have a number of men there with Viviani, but seeing as none of them are climbers really it will be about damage limitation. But with maybe 2-3 mins of a gap at the top, it will be disheartening and there will be a lack of cooperation behind as everyone will just expect QSF to do the pulling.
If that's the case, the break probably won't be far away and will be controlled by the likes of Trek, B-H and M-S as they won't want to blow the chance of winning the stage, seeing as they had got rid of the sprinters. If that's the case, then it's likely we'll see a showdown between M-S with Mezgec, Haig, Albasini and Edmonson leading out for Trentin and Trek with Mollema, Felline, Brambilla and Irizar working for Nizzolo.
We might also see Bora working for McCarthy, Buchmann or Schwarzmann, if he makes it, it's unlikely they'll be working for Sagan given how he was dropped early on today. McCarthy might do ok in a reduced sprint, especially if Bora have a lot of their strong men still with him. Who else can get involved? Well Ryan Gibbons might have a chance of hanging in there with the leaders, but I'd put him more with Viviani and Bouhanni than Trentin and Nizzolo. Danny Van Poppel is another who might get involved in this finish, LottoJumbo have a powerful team capable of looking after him and if he can get into the mix in the sprint he has a chance of a top three on a good day.
I think it will have to be a very difficult and selective run-in for the likes of Kwiat and Valverde to be involved in the sprint. Simone Consonni is UAE's option in the sprint and he hasn't been in bad form of late, winning a stage and the points classification at the Tour of Slovenia and taking 5th in the Ride Surrey Classic and a stage in Poland. Ivan Garcia Cortina is Bahrain Merida's option for the sprint, finishing one place above Consonni in the Ride Surrey classic, but he seems to be generally finishing 5th to 15th rather than 1st to 5th. Tom Van Asbroeck could get involved at 33/1 or even Tosh Van der Sande at a very big lookin 100/1.
Jon Aberasturi might not be a name many of you have heard of, but the young Spanish sprinter from the Euskadi-Murias team will be looking forward to this one too. He won a stage in the Vuelta Aragon earlier this year and also finished 2nd and 5th on two lumpy stages in the Vuelta a Burgos just a few weeks ago. He's had 16 top 7 finishes this year and likes a lumpy stage, he should be able to hang in there with a number of his team-mates and if there are a reduced number of sprinters at the finish, he might have a good chance of being involved at a massive price of 100/1. He will be pretty close to home on stage 17, would be nice to ride along as a stage winner in his neck of the woods.
The break could have a chance as I said and we could see the likes of De Gendt go again, he was on the attack today but bailed out of it early enough when it looked like they were doomed. Luis Angel Maté looks to have the KOM on his mind maybe after taking 11 pts today, an early 10pts tomorrow could see him take a nice early lead like Villella last year. Sander Armee was one of my heroes last year, and he seems to be going ok, he was 57th today, 1'50" behind Valverde. He could fancy a day like this too and would be a likely candidate to try and get away on that hill with 30kms to go. But on second thoughts, the fact that he's just over 2 minutes down means that he won't be let go in the break so I'll save him for another day. Allessandro De Marchi is quite short in the betting at 33/1 so I guess some fancy his chances in the break tomorrow, but I think he will wait for a more difficut day. I could name probably another 40 guys who could go in the break but I genuinely think the break won't make it tomorrow.
So decision time, the bookies have priced it up with Viviani the hot 13/8 favourite, and that's way too short for me, as I mentioned above I'm not even sure if he will be there at the finish. Sagan is also way too short for me at 5/1 as is Bouhanni at 9/1, but I fancy Nizzolo's chances at a nice each way price of 8/1. However I'm just going to have a go on some bigger priced outsiders just incase it is a messy finish on the first sprint stage of the race.
Recommendations:
1pt each-way on Giacomo Nizzolo at 8/1
0.3pts each-way on Simone Consonni at 33/1
0.3pts each-way on Tom Van Asbroeck at 33/1
0.2pts each-way on Jon Aberasturi at 100/1
Matchbets:
Consonni to beat Serreau - 2pts at 8/11
Cortina to beat Bouhanni - 1pt at 6/4
Viviani to beat Sagan and Van der Sande to beat Restrepo - 2pts on the double at 5/4