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Published on Thursday, 13 September 2018 20:38

Vuelta Stage 20

Escaldes-Engordany – Coll. de La Gallina

Sat 15th Sept, 97.3kms 

The final chance to reshape the top ten, with a short, but brutal hard stage that will take no prisoners. Three Cat 1s, an Esp climb, a Cat 2 and a Cat 3 with accumulated altitude gain of over 4,000m in just 97kms.  

If this is anything like the short 65km stage 17 of the Tour, then we should be in for an interesting stage this Saturday afternoon. In that stage, the infamous 'Grid start' turned out to be a complete farce and riders just stayed together, with the lower-ranked riders just flying straight through and attacking anyway.

Valverde got away with the likes of Majka and Kangert and he was to eventually play a part in Nairo's victory when he bridged to him with 11kms to go and pulled for as long as he could before cracking. Martin had attacked with Quintana, but couldn't hold his wheel, and from then on it was just a series of time-trials up the mountain, with Quintana holding his gap to Martin, Martin holding the gap to the peloton, and Thomas riding away from Froome to secure his position as clear GC leader. 

In a series of loops and re-used roads, they go over the Col de la Comella twice (a Cat 3 from one side and a Cat 2 from the other side) and the Cat 1 Col de Beixalis twice and in between the Col de Ordino, before finishing on the Coll de la Gallina, an Esp climb. If you struggle on any of the earlier climbs here today you could lose a lot of time and a lot of places.  

Stage 19 Review

It took a long time for the break to go as Movistar set their stall out early on, as I suspected they might, setting a blistering pace for the opening hour. In fact it took 74kms before we got the break of the day up the road, with three no-hopers getting the green light to go. But with the gap not being let get much above a minute, Tom Van Asbroeck quickly threw in the towel and dropped back to the peloton.

Ben Thomas and Jonathan Castroviejo pressed on though and with 35kms to go they had a lead of almost 2’30”. But then Movistar put the hammer down again, caused a split in the peloton in a section with cross-winds and suddenly the gap to the break had come down by a minute.

They rolled on at a brutally high pace (average speed for first two hours was close to 46kmph) but Movistar failed to achieve the first part of what they set out to do by catching the break before the intermediate sprint, and Luca Mezgec sprinted to take the last available point and bonus second. 

Then it exploded on the final climb pretty quickly and we were down to just 30 riders or so with 14kms to go. LottoJumbo took up the pulling with Bennett leading SK, and suddenly we had riders all over the place. Kruijswijk and Bennett forced a split, Quintana went with them, but suddenly, Valverde was in trouble and needed help so Quintana dropped back.

Bennett blew up, but Yates raced across a 12” gap like he was on a moto, and shortly after Thibaut Pinot did exactly what I thought he would, only in slightly different circumstances.. he raced away from the others who were looking to see who would take up the pulling and quickly bridged to the leaders also.

While behind Valverde struggled as I warned he might at this altitude, Lopez seemed to not know what to do and others like Kelderman and Gallopin had enough of the slow pace and took off. Quintana punctured at the worst possible moment but quickly got back to the group, but then was shelled pretty soon after that anyway and lost 1'49" to Yates. 

The front trio soon started to pull away, each had a strong reason to pull – Yates to secure victory, Pinot for the stage win and SK to get back on to the podium. And they were sensational. Each one of them looked so strong, but Yates and Pinot in particular, and with 1.5kms to go they shed SK. Pinot was masterful.. powering away from Yates, who possibly just rode home happy with his time gap, to land another good winner for us at 16/1.

Two of the match bets won too with Gallopin doing better than a fading Buchmann and Lopez just outsprinting Mas for 5th. So another 9.3pts or so in the bag, Pinot has been very good to us this week! Movistar are home and hosed in the Team competition, they’re 27 mins clear, and Valverde should wrap up the Sprints jersey too tomorrow, he’s 26pts clear of Sagan and should pick up a few points tomorrow to secure it.

The Route

They start in Escaldes-Engordany right in the middle of the course, and after just 1.3kms they start on the first climb as they head on to the northern loop part of the course. The Coll de la Comella is a Cat 2 this way up it, 4.3kms at 8.7%, a tough start to the day that should see the race blow apart already with breakers going up the road and stragglers forming an early grupetto. 

They head north-east on to the northern loop part of the circuit, then turn left to take on the Coll de Beixalis for the first time, a winding, zig-zagging climb with lots of hairpins that climbs for 6.9kms at an average of 8.3%, a similar gradient to the Comella. Down the twisting, dangerous descent on the other side, turn right and almost immediately start on the Coll de Ordino, another Cat 1 which is the longest and highest climb of the day, climbing for 9.8kms to reach an altitude just shy of 2,000m, averaging 6.9%. 

15kms of another very twisting and dangerous descent and they head back to the foot of the Coll de Beixalis to do it for a second time. When they crest it this time there are only 34kms left, they descend for 13kms, turning left on to the south part of that northern loop, then right and on to the Coll de Comella again to tackle it from the other side. This time it's a Cat 3, averaging 6.4% for 3.6kms. 

They then turn left and start heading towards the final climb of the day, the Collada de La Gallina. Santuario de Canolich.. They pass through Andorra La Vella and briefly have some respite of flat roads and even a little descent until they start climbing the lower slopes of the final climb.

It is actually about 7kms from the bottom to the top, starting out on pretty straight roads, but then they turn south and the road starts to zig-zag almost immediately in a series of hairpin bends on the categorised part of the climb. The last 5kms average 7.6%, the Esp categorised part is actually very short at just 3.5kms, but averages 8.7%, staying steep all the way to the line. The Gallina is said to be Andorra's hardest climbs, but it's by no means the hardest climb these guys will have faced in the Vuelta, it's no Angliru.. There are no fewer than 18 hairpins in the last 4kms though, the riders will be dizzy from going left and right and left and right.. 

The weather looks to be relatively good, there is going to be little to no wind, just 4-5mph, but as it's a south-westerly it will be more or less a head wind all the way up the final climb. But seeing as they zig-zag left and right all the way through the last 4kms there isn't actually much directly in to the wind. There is about a 30-40% chance of rain in the afternoon, which could make it interesting if the roads get slippy, there's lots of descending to do, on some very twisty roads. 

Contenders and Favourites

So how does this stage pan out then after that carnage today? What do Movistar do tomorrow after spending the whole day trying to blow up today's stage and then blowing up themselves on the final climb? Will they try to do the same from the start or try to be a bit more reserved this time until later in the race? Who knows.. 

This could be an absolute classic with carnage right from the start, or we could watch the GC men plod over climb after climb until the final 7kms.. I really hope it's the first and we get one of those days where there is so much going on it's hard to keep up!

Well there is definitely grounds for thinking we could get some exciting racing right from the very start - the stage is only 97kms, less than 3hrs racing, several places in the top 10 are still up for grabs, second place is up for grabs, the KOM is up for grabs, the Points competition is up for grabs and who knows.. if Yates has an off day for once, the GC could be up for grabs too. Plus it's the last chace to win a stage for most, so expect plenty of attacking right from the start. 

Movistar laid their cards out on the table very early in the similar stage in the Tour (stage 17), when Valverde went in the break, eventually helping Quintana when the planned attack came later in the stage. We might see similar tactics tomorrow, they'll want to put on a show to make up for today and they'll want to win the stage, but more importantly they'll want to wrap up Valverde's 2nd place on the GC, he only has 20" on SK and 37" on Mas in 4th, with Lopez just another 14" back.. Depending on who has a good or a bad day, those positions could all change by 5pm tomorrow afternoon.. 

It's even possible that Movistar go hard from the gun again to prevent breaks going and to thin out the peloton and get rid of support for Yates, they might have plans to try to take the points and bonus seconds after just 30kms, but it will mean controlling it over the opening Cat 2 and the next Cat 1. It's possible, but they will burn a lot of matches like they did today, it might be better to save their men in case Valverde needs saving later in the stage. 

They might also get some help from Lotto Jumbo or QSF who will be keen also to get rid of a lot of the peloton, but it might be that there is an agreement formed between them where Movistar agree to pull early to thin it down and take the bonus seconds and then one of the others take up the pulling later on.. If they push a very hard pace early on we might see just 30-40 guys left in the peloton again by the time they start the long 10km climb to the Cat 1 Coll de Ordino and they might be happy then to let a break go, take a breather for a while and take up the pulling again around the 40km to go point.

If Movistar haven't burnt all their matches they might send Erviti or Carapaz in the break for the later potential counter attack by Valverde or Quintana. But have they anything left in the legs?? They both looked cooked today, they might be better off just focusing on protecting Valverde rather than trying to blow it up, I don't think either of them can sustain a long-range attack.

One thing to think about with him too of course, as I said yesterday, is the 2,000m fear, and the Ordino reaches almost 2,000m.. Will Lotto Jumbo and M-S try to put on the hurt on this climb to see if they can distance him? I wouldn't be surprised at all.. SO many sub-plots, so many ways to shape and win this stage.. 

None of these climbs are easy really, the Cat 1s and Esp climbs average around 8%, and it really could be mano-a-mano on the final climb of the Collina, supposedly Andorra's hardest climb.. We could have men all over the road by the time they finish, and the winner on the day will join the ranks of legendary Vuelta stage winners I reckon.

Simon Yates lives in Andorra, he's sure to have lots of family and friends there at the top of the climb to potentially welcome him home as the winner of the Vuelta. To do so, all he needs to do is not lose any time at all to Valverde, or indeed any of the others behind him, in case they are on a monster day. We've seen defeat snatched from the jaws of victory before in the Vuelta though, notably Tom Dumoulin blowing up and losing to Aru in 2015 in a similar sort of situation, and indeed we saw Yates himself throw it away on stage 19 of the Giro this year. 

That might be playing on the back of his mind if Movistar and Astana go at him from the start, will they try to put him on the limit on the earlier Cat 1s to see if they can put him in to the red? There are two in a row before they hit 42kms gone, if he's starting to struggle a little early on, we could see him panic.. Go in to the red and not recover at all, or let it slide a little and hope to make it back later on if the pace eases off a bit?

But the pace won't ease off if they see him struggle, they'll go for the jugular. But you just cannot see that happening to him based on how well he was riding today, he rode the last 6kms (at least) in the big ring for god sake! I think we could see him crown his victory tomorrow with a win, and he has to be on the short list. 

He has been superb so far in this race, he's lost a few seconds here and there, but he's also made a few seconds here and there, and made far more than that today. He has mostly been able to cover everything that goes, and maybe mistakenly counted Quintana as a genuine rival last Sunday when Lopez went after Pinot, Quintana wasn't bluffing, he genuinely hadn't the legs it seems. 

Haig has been superb, and now even Adam seems to be riding in to form at just the right time to support him in this final stage, so he should have support on the final climbs. Howson, Albasini, Docker and Trentin will help him as much as they can on the earlier climbs, and if he can get to the final climb with Adam and Haig and is still with his rivals it's hard to see them shaking him off, and he could even sit there, defend and evntually hit out to take the stage.. 

At this point in a Grand Tour it pays to go with form riders, and with that in mind, you have to have Pinot in the short list too, I don't think he is finished in this race yet. He was immense today, always looked in control and was toying with SK and Yates at times. There looked to be only one winner coming in to the last 300m and he actually won it by quite a margin. 

Quintana looks cooked, Valverde looks cooked, Lopez is riding a bizarre race at the moment, he was off the back, he was jumping off the front, he was attacking and being chased down by Bilbao, his own team-mate, yet he never looked like coming close to being able to go with the front three, he was even outsprinted by Uran in the end. 

Enric Mas was a bit disappointing today too, he gave up his 3rd place on the GC rather easily, he seemed to lack the experience to know what to do, instead of just riding as hard as he could to limit his losses to SK and to try to preserve his podium he was jumping around the place, and not willing to do much chasing at all, it was all a bit strange and he was left a little behind by Uran and Lopez at the finish. He might bounce back tomorrow, but I'm not too confident in him. 

Uran seems to be finding his legs, he could be a danger for a podium spot, but he's been very hit and miss in this race and you just couldn't trust him. Kruijswijk is sure to be involved again, but you just can't see him outsprinting Yates or Pinot, or riding away from them. 

It's probably going to be a GC day, but there is a chance a strong break on the final stage in the mountains will get away and stay away, if Movistar don't push things then M-S are going to be happy to let them go up the road and take the bonus seconds. The break should contain all the KOM hopefuls, so expect De Gendt, who took it easy today, Mollema, likewise took it easy today, King and possibly a recovered Maté to be involved.

Pierre Rolland, Rafal Majka, Michal Kwiatkowski (who said today he's going to play one more time today after trying several times to get in the break today), Omar Fraile, Oscar Rodriguez, Jan Hirt, Rudy Mollard and actually, any number of Lotto-Soudal guys could try. Rafal Majka is one I think we need to have a saver on, he's likely to be one of the best climbers left on the last climb if a break makes it. 

Alessandro De Marchi is sure to try again, and he has looked one of the strongest of the break candidates and I'm putting him in the locker too with some of the longshots, but I think it could well be a repeat of today's finish with Pinot and Yates the strongest two. I think Yates let Pinot win today, I wouldn't be surprised to see Yates get revenge tomorrow and maybe Pinot letting him ride away to take victory to cap a fantastic Vuelta by the Bury lad. 

Recommendations -

2pts win on Simon Yates at 7/1 on Betfair

1pt e/w on Thibaut Pinot at 6/1

0.3pts e/w on Alessandro De Marchi at 33/1

0.3pts e/w on Gianluca Brambilla at 66/1

0.5pts win on Rafal Majka at 17/1 on Betfair

Matchbets

Simon Yates to beat Valverde, Adam Yates to beat Carapaz and Pinot to beat SK - 2pts at 2.37/1

Brambilla to beat Aru and Majka to beat Zakarin - 2pts at 11/10

Yates to beat Valverde and Henao to beat TGH - 2pts at 1.35/1

Uran to beat Quintana - 2pts at 8/11