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Published on Thursday, 13 September 2018 22:28

Vuelta Stage 19

Lleida – Andorra. Naturlandia  

Friday 14th Sept, 157kms 

Bizarrely, the Vuelta website says that this is a 'Flat' stage, and although it does start at just 170m, it ends up at over 2,000m in height, climbing almost all day long, gently at first, then kicking up hard for the final climb in Andorra. 

It looks like a possible day for the breakaway, but with the final climb to the summit being effectively about 60kms long, getting steeper for the last 20kms, then a strong, surging peloton looking for a stage win could well see the break reeled in on time for it to be a GC battle.

The climb of the Col de la Rabassa was also used in 2015 and 2017, but not as the summit finish, but a climb along the way. In 2017 they crested it with 30kms to go on the way to Andorra la Vella. Vincenzo Nibali won in a sprint from David de la Cruz and Chris Froome, as an elite group of some 13 riders pulled away from everyone else. (below)

Stage 18 Review

Small, harmless break of three went, they were let go very far ahead as QSF and Trek controlled things as I expected...Well, it looked like a weak break, but boy did they surprise the sprinters and fans alike. Jelle Wallays and Sven Erik Bystrom dropped Jetse Bol with 7kms to go as the peloton closed the gap to 38”, and all looked under control.

It didn’t even look like the peloton were shirking in their effort either, they were going full gas. But Wallays is super powerful, and he had a very similar companion in Bystrom, and they worked incredibly well together. Hitting the 1km to go mark they incredibly still had 13”, and even though the sprinters trains were in full-blown panic at this stage, with Sagan launching like a rocket off the front in the last 300m, Wallays held on for an amazing victory.

Sagan took the 3rd spot just behind Bystrom, beating Viviani and Garcia Cortina. The sprinters teams’ made a total mess of it, they underestimated the power of Wallays, there will be a lot of screaming and swearing at the team debriefs tonight I think. If we’d had a proper leadout I don’t think Sagan would have beaten Viviani, it was total chaos in the last kilometer and every man for himself, Sagan got the jump on him, but Viviani finished with a lot of speed to close a large gap in the last 100m.

I don’t think you can read too much in to any of the final placings at all though because of how chaotic it was, but Cortina continues to show how well he’s riding by being up there in 5th, and DVP almost got up as well, finishing 6th. Our in-play bet on Aberasturi won, as he was true to his word and showed great legs to sprint to 7th, that saved us a little.

One win and one loss on the matchbets, they became total lotterys too with the crazy finish, so with the win on Aberasturi it meant a 1.5pt loss, 3.7pts if you missed the in-play bet.. Can’t imagine many came out on top today though except for the bookies, that was an amazing result for them again, on the back of all the GC men going down yesterday.

The Route

We're heading north-east all day, moving in to Andorra along the way. The road rolls along for about 28kms on more or less flat roads, then it starts to rise.. slowly at first, but with some bumps along the way. And it drags up and up, and almost imperceptible gradients, but by the time they enter Andorra they are already 860m high. 

Then the road kicks up hard after they enter Andorra, pass through the sprint after 136.7kms and immediately start the official categorised part of the climb. They start at 900m, and end up at 2,025m at the summit 17kms later, making it an average of 6.6%. There are double-digit gradients earlier in the climb but it does ease off in the second part of the climb.

The last 8kms are extremely twisty with 10 switchbacks to negotiate, but the gradient is pretty steady and not too difficult, averaging 5% for the last 5kms, and 5.5% for the last 2kms as they climb towards the finish. There is one last left hand turn with just 50m or so to go, if it is tight coming to the finish between the GC guys. it might all come down to who's first through that bend, taking the inside line could be crucial.

Weather looks ok, they will have a slight headwind in the closing kilometres, which might hinder attackers, but it could also help them as those behind, who are already looking at each other might be put off chasing even more by the fact there's a headwind.

Contenders and Favourites

Not too long, not too short, but with the road climbing for more or less all of the 154kms, this stage will feel like a long one, more so with 18 stages already in their legs. At the least the organisers had some mercy for them and gave the GC men, and most break candidates a rest day today, ahead of the two crucial stages to come.

This is a far easier stage for the likes of QuickStep and LottoJumbo to help with the pacemaking, if Mas fancies it again, or if Kruijswijk has recovered after a bit of a jour-sans on Wednesday, then they might fancy this finish too and their teams should help Movistar, Astana and maybe even FDJ to keep the break under control and then reel it in on time to fight out the finish.

This could be a stage that Alejandro Valverde has marked down in his road book as one that he could potentially win on, the last 5kms average 5%, the last 2kms average 5.5%, perfect for a Valverde sprint victory. You just know that if he is up there he will be first through that last turn and will lead the sprint to the line. 

But two things of concern with regards to backing Valverde for this one, one, he seems to struggle with climbs over 2,000m and the other was that he was outsprinted for the win by the new star of the race, Enric Mas on Wednesday. On La Covatilla, which almost reached 2,000m, he lost 24" to the likes of Quintana and Kelderman for example. 

Ok, so it's only fractionally over 2,000m, but if could effect him, and it is something to bear in mind, but this is a very easy day compared to a tough stage that spends most of it's days at high altitudes and going over Cat 1 after Cat 1 etc. Valverde has been working really hard too for Quintana, but Wednesday he got the green light to go when Nairo was struggling, and attacked a few times, almost winning the group sprint, gaining time on Yates.

And he's also very, very close to Yates now.. just 25" down.. I fully expect Movistar and Valverde to go for that intermediate sprint at the bottom of the climb, I think they will have pulled back the break in time to allow him to do that, this race could be won by seconds in the end. If he takes 3" there and Yates takes none, he could also take 10" bonus at the top of the climb and it could even come down to the final stage bonus seconds as to who wins this race..

Enric Mas was the one who outsprinted him as I said for the win on Wednesday, he was very, very impressive, QSF just keep seeming to find winner after winner after winner this year.. He seems very comfortable at all points of the climbs, he rarely seems under pressure and showed his sprinting abilities too at the end of a very tough climb. My concern with this one is that it just isn't hard enough, and there might be better 'sprinters' than him at the finish. But he's sure to be close, he's riding on his home roads. 

One of those 'sprinters' of course has to be Simon Yates, he's capable of attacking away in the last kilometre if he sees the others under pressure, and has a decent kick on him at the finish of a relatively gentle finish like this one. The other teams will have to work him over in the last 5kms or so though, Quintana will have to attack to make him chase, Valverde will put in digs to try to tire him and the others out, and maybe even Kuss or Bennett if they are still in there on an easier climb like this.

But Yates lives in Andorra too, he'll know this climb, he will be on home roads and that might give him a little advantage.. But he knows he doesn't need to attack, he just needs to follow, there is a very tough stage to come on Saturday and he'll have stage 19 of the Giro on the back of his mind too, he won't want a repeat of that.. 

But our favourite for the stage, at 3/1 is M A Lopez again, that's something like the 4th stage he has been favourite for, and hasn't won, although he has come as close to winning as you can with two 2nd places. He has been a bit disappointing at times, but at least he has attacked and put it up to the others at times, forcing the Yates/Quintana quarrel on Sunday.

Does Lopez go for it tomorrow? The finish suits him, he only needs a small gain of 4" and the win bonus to retake 3rd place from Mas, I don't think he's patient enough to wait until Saturday to try to go for it, he has a chance tomorrow to win the stage and do it, then defend on Saturday if needs be, backed up by Bilbao, Fraile and Co. It could be that the Yates/Valverde duel could see Lopez go for it and get a gap, and if the rest look at each other, he could be gone..

The location of where he goes could be all important to his overall chances, if he goes early enough, say 5-6kms out and goes hard, he could take 30-40" and the time bonus.. then it would be game on for Saturday with the win within reach if he repeats that performance. But he hasn't been in scintillating form and even lost time on stage 17, although those steep gradients were not really to his liking as much as this climb should be. 

Another who could really like this finish is our friend Thibaut Pinot - he got dropped early on the climb Wednesday, but I think that was a smart move really, there was no way he was winning on that finish, and he probably knew it. Instead, he saved his energy while all the other GC guys were eyeballs-out up the road. He said in an interview before Wednesday's stage that he is stil looking for more stage wins in this race, and seemed to hint that it was Friday and Saturday's stage that he has in mind. I really think that Saturday is maybe too hard for him, so I think tomorrow is his final chance, and I want to be on him again. 

I wouldn't be surprised to see him try something similar to Sunday's stage when he took off while other looked at each other, we could get something similar tomorrow - Lopez, Yates, Mas, Quintana and Valverde all looking at each other, some attacking between them, then a lull as one is caught and Thibaut takes off. As he said after Sunday's stage, he knew that if he got a gap, with the legs that he has at the moment, they were going to find it very hard to catch him.

Steven Kruijswijk made up some time in the TT on Tuesday, then gave it all back the next day on the climb to Bizkaia, he will be bitterly disappointed with that, as it looked like he was heading towards a possible podium spot. But this steady climb is far more up his street, he is far more suited to a steady grind like this on a long climb, but maybe it isn't steep enough!

He's 26" behind 3rd spot now, but 23" ahead of Quintana in 6th. Which does he go for? Defend or attack? Well he has said before yesterday's stage that he is going 'all or nothing' for the rest of the race, but he ended up with nothing on Wednesday, but this is definitely one for him to attack on rather than defend, he can only gain time by getting a gap and getting away, I don't think he'll lose much time if he goes for it and gets caught again and dropped.

It might even be that he could try going with 7-8kms to go and just get in to his rhythm on those steady gradients and just try to time trial to the finish. Maybe someone like Pinot will come with him.. But that's his only chance of winning this stage I think, and it's a pretty slim one that he'll hold off these guys all the way to the finish.

Can Nairo Quintana do anything? Will he find the legs that seem to have been missing lately in this stage? I think it's unlikely, although he did recover late on in the climb on Wednesday to almost catch SK, but that could have been more a case of SK going backwards than Nairo picking up speed. Normally you'd have said that this climb is perfect for him to take off with 3-4kms to go, but he hasn't shown any glimpse this week that he'll be able to do that. And I think if Movistar have any plan, they will be saving it for Saturday, which is a much harder stage I think. 

Rigo Uran has been quiet, he has been a bit disappointing, he looked like he might go alright earlier in the race, but has been dropped more often than he has finished with the GC leaders. This easier climb might suit him better though, and unless Woods and Rolland go up the road in the break, he should have help from them and would have a decent kick on him for a finish like this too, if he has the legs. 

Ion Izagirre is anothe who could go well on this finish, he's been under a lot of pressure on the steeper climbs, but is still up there fighting for a top 6 finish. I don't think he has the kick to beat the faster guys here in a sprint at the finish, but he could be one of those to try a cheeky late attack that might pay off. 

One I like too though is David De La Cruz again, I highlighted how much I liked him for stage 17, and was ruing not backing him at 66/1 all day, especially in the closing kilometres when he was looking like he could be fighting it out for the stage win. But even though he faded towards the end, he still would have landed the 66/1 each-way. He's only 25/1 for tomorrow with Paddy Power, but that still looks ok to me, especially as he's just 16/1 with 365. 

He said this today before the start of the stage "Let’s see if the stages left in Andorra allow me to show everything I had in me for La Vuelta. Either one of the Andorran stages would be nice to win, so I hope I can give all I have right now. The important is to keep going with strength in this last part of the race, and yesterday was the day I felt the best. I’m improving every day."

If he's improving every day, and with the help of Kwiatkowski, Henao or TGH he could be a strong member of the break, one that could ride away from the others at the finish, or he could even stay with the GC group and attack when there's a lull and be let go. Michal Kwiatkowski himself could be one to watch tomorrow too, he seems to be riding better too and should be over the crash he suffered a week ago, if he's part of a break he could ride away to victory on these slopes. 

And speaking of the break, look for the usual suspects to be up there again, but I feel like we might see Mollema, De Gendt, Maté and King keep their powder dry until Saturday, no point in wasting energy on a day in the break, when there's a high chance the break will be caught. So look for others to go on the break, with a win in the bag now Lotto Soudal will be full of confidence and after getting in breaks almost every single day expect one or two of them to be in the break tomorrow. Let's try Sander Armée and Tiejs Benoot again.. 

Rafal Majka is an interesting one, he's very short for a guy who might not even want to go in the break with the big stage on Saturday. But he might fancy it, if the break gets some strong rouleurs in it, maybe someone like Postleberger or Burghardt with him, or maybe even Sagan, they might have a big enough lead to give him a chance on the final climb. Or he might just sit in with the GC men, hang in there until he gets a chance to attack late on the climb and goes for it. He's strong enough to get a gap quickly and could hold them off if there is a bit of looking around behind. But at 16/1, I'm not interested. 

Dylan Teuns might go again, he's in superb form and was unlucky on Wednesday - one minute it looked like he was winning the stage, the next minute the cameras cut to Woods riding clear.. If he is in the break, he will have a better chance of winning on this finish. He was 33/1, he's been cut to 25/1, but he's worth a shot too from the break I think.

Vincenzo Nibali, Michael Woods again, Davide Formolo (although he was sent to the front for a while today, I don't think they'd have done that if they had plans for him to attack tomorrow), Omar Fraile, Gianluca Brambilla (I fancy him for Saturday's break), Ilnur Zakarin and Alessandro De Marchi... all likely lads as well, some of them are bound to make the break, and if so, they'd have a chance of winning too. 

I think it's about 70/30 the break is caught though, and it could be a real stalemate sort of finish if so.. the headwind, the state of play between the favourites, the lack of form by the likes of Quintana, the fact that Saturday is going to be brutal.. Pinot could escape, Lopez will probably try, but in the end, Valverde is going to win eh... and probably by enough to take the leader's jersey Saturday off of Yates..

I'm having a go at some breakers, just in case the GC team's down tools and roll as far as the final climb in order to save themselves for Saturday, and I like DDLC for both the break and a GC finish, with Pinot a possible late attacker to win from the GC group too. I might back Lopez in play if looking like a GC finish, he's the most likely to win it I think, but Mas won't be far behind. I'm hoping the pace is really high though for a long time on that final climb, I'd like to see Movistar burn off Valverde and he drops off the podium, I just don't want him winning this race, that's for sure.. 

Recommendations -

0.5pts e/w on Thibaut Pinot at 16/1 with Paddy Power

0.5pts e/w on David De La Cruz at 33/1 with Will Hill 

0.5pts win on Dylan Teuns at 25/1 with various

0.2pts win on Sander Armée at 200/1

0.2pts win on Teisj Benoot at 100/1

Matchbets

Lopez to beat Mas - 2pts at 8/11

De la Cruz to beat Majka - 2pts at 5/6

Gallopin to beat Buchmann - 2pts at 5/6