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Published on Wednesday, 12 September 2018 22:07

Vuelta Stage 18

E. de los Caballeros – Lleida

Thurs 13th Sept, 180.5kms 

This looks like one to skip until the last 10 minutes, it's flat to gently descending all day with a downhill run to an uphill sprint finish. The most exciting part might be that 20% downhill dip with 2kms to go.. 

Lleida was last used as a finish town in just 2015, when Danny Van Poppel took one of his biggest wins of his career, beating Daryl Impey and Tosh Van der Sande. That year they were coming off the back of a run of brutally hard Andorran climbing stages, this year it's the prelude to the Andorran adventure, but one day after Lagos de Cavadonga..

Plenty of sprinters have saved their legs for this one, rest day Monday, rest day Tuesday with a gentle training ride around the TT course and a rest day today just cruising home in the grupetto. But we are 17 stages down in a tough Grand Tour, who is feeling their best at this point in the race?

Stage 17 Review 

We saw a super break go up the road on the first Cat 3 climb today, after a number of failed skirmishes in the opening 5kms or so. Omar Fraile, TDG, Makja and others made their intentions known very early on, riding alongside the commissaire's car in the neutrailsed zone, ready for action. And sure enough, they all made the break, the only KOM candidates who didn't make it were Ben King and a sick Maté, who was dropped on the first climb. 

Vincenzo Nibali was also in there, and the powerful group soon built up a very big lead, and with 60kms to go they still held a lead of over 8 mins. But the peloton picked up the pace and the group up front started to splinter with the stronger men leaving the stragglers behind as they hit the climbs. 

But I think no one expected the finish to be as tough as it was, it was absolutely brutal, a lot harder than it looked on paper and on google maps etc. Michael Woods was brilliant though, he bided his time, he attacked, he sat on, he let Teuns attack and suddenly when they cut to them coming out of the mist with about 300m to go, he was clear.. We didn't see him catch or pass Teuns, but it must have been pretty devastating as suddenly he had 30m or more on him.

He almost came to a stop about 3 times in the run in to the line, the gradients were so steep, and I'd say cramp was hitting him too.. but he made it, and it was both sad and heart-warming to hear him dedicate the win to his still-born baby Hunter, he said he thought about him all the way to the line and it drove him on. 

Majka was the 7/4 favourite in-play to take the stage for most of about the last 40kms, with Fraile and Woods trading around 11/2.. Lopez drifted between about 5/1 and 9/1 all afternoon as it looked like they might catch them, then it didn't look likely, then it looked possible again. 

But the GC men fucked it up, and I'm really pissed off about it as we lost out on another 25/1 winner, with Enric Mas proving the strongest of the GC men as I predicted, he'd have won the stage if they only hadn't given the damn break 8 minutes of a lead with 60kms to go. Euskadi took up the pulling and shaved a few minutes off, then Astana, but it was too late. Where were QSF? Where were Movistar? They gave up the chance to win the stage and stretch Valverde's advantage over his rivals by riding so defensively. 

Ok, Movistar were concious of the fact that Nairo was in shit form again, he was dropped a long way from home today, and although he recovered near the finish to come back a bit, he is all but done now I think. Yates looks home and hosed, he might have lost a little bit of time today, but he still has a decent lead, and none of his key rivals like Valvere, Lopez or Quintana look capable of taking that much time off of him now. His biggest rival could well be Enric Mas, he is absolutely flying, yet another QSF rider smashing all around him this season, they really are having an unbelievable season.. And Viviani will probably add to that tomorrow. 

So the race bets blew as we didn't get anyone in the break, but we were nearly saved by the matchbets, as Izagirre won his and Kelderman beat Aru (who looks to have had a nasty crash), but unfortunately Pernsteiner had a bad day and lost his matchbet to blow the double. So a small 1.3pt loss, but very annoying to lose out for the second day running by such close margins (ok, it wasn't close today, but the call was right, Mas was the strongest..)

The Route

Not a lot to say here really is there. It's an almost totally flat run heading south-east all day, with a little hill after about 105kms, a sprint point after 127kms and another little bump with 29kms to go as they go through Almacelles. From there it's a very fast run to the finish, with mostly flat to slightly descending roads. There are a few roundabouts and tight turns as highlighted on the map, but it's mostly pretty straight, and after that sharp right with 1km to go it's dead straight.

There is an interesting little descent which starts with 2kms to go as they dive down in to Lleida, it looks to be around 20% gradient, which could cause some trains some problems as they try to get themselves organised with just 2kms to go. With just over 1km go to the road starts to rise a little, with a false flat of 2-3% gradient leading them on to a flat last 150m. 

Contenders and Favourites

It should be a bunch sprint day, the sprinters' teams have waited patiently for another chance and it's the second last opportunity before Madrid for them to get something out of this race. I say it should be a sprint day, but of course the GC teams won't chase, and that leaves a little conundrum for QSF, as they have Mas challenging for a podium spot.. Do they waste energy chasing or do they go for the third stage win for Viviani? Well, Mas hasn't really had any help in the mountains, like when Dan Martin was with them, they didn't really come here with a team to support their GC man. 

So I think they will chase, Mas has a cushion down to 6th place, and the way he's been riding it's up rather than down he'll probably go in the last two mountain stages, even if he's on his own. So QSF chases, and if they do, Elia Viviani is going to be very hard to beat on this finish. You just know that they will dominate the leadout through the last 2kms, with Serry, Asgreen, Morkov and Sabatini at the front charging through the last bend with 1km to go with maybe two still in front of Viviani. If they deliver him at the front again with 200m to go, he'll cruise to victory. 

So who else will chase? Bora most certainly will I'd say, as they have got nothing out of this race really so far, a 2nd for Majka on La Camperona their best result and Buchmann has disappointed in the GC. Peter Sagan will want to leave here with something and he's close too to taking the points jersey, two wins in the last two sprint stages could take it away from Valverde. That's a big ask though, but with their powerful squad they could be the ones taking over from QSF coming down that descent in to the last right hand bend and looking to set up Sagan for the sprint. But you know that even if he's not got his leadout in order, Sagan is going to be 2nd or 3rd in line behind Viviani and ready to pounce. He's a likely podium finisher for sure. 

After that, Trek should help with the chase, they haven't anyone in the top 10, Brambilla their best-placed rider in 13th. Giacomo Nizzolo has come close in every sprint, he has finished 2nd, 3rd and 5th so far. Trek also have only a 2nd place for Nizz and Mollema to show for their efforts, they too will be keen to try to get the win on an uphill finish which should suit Nizzolo a bit more than a flat finish. But has he the speed to beat Viviani?

I think it will come down to positioning - I don't think he has the raw speed to beat Viviani, but if he can be positioned better than him coming in to the last kilometre, it's possible.. That might require someone like Brandle bullying his way through in to the turn before the downhill and plopping Nizz in to Sagan's wheel ahead of Viviani in the last kilometre.. he has to then hope that Sagan gets a good leadout and he jumps early to try to get the jump on Viviani who might be further back, then Nizzolo can come around him for the win.. Simples!

LottoJumbo have SK up there in the GC, but they will be disappointed with Bennett's performance and their lack of a good result in the race so far. Again, like Nizz and Trek, they've come close with DVP's 2nd to Bouhanni on stage 11, but they will want to get something out of this race too before it's over. Van Poppel pootled around the TT on Tuesday and rolled home at the back of the pack today, he has been taking it easy too. But has he the kick to win this? The uphill will suit him, we saw how good he was in the uphill sprint in stage 8 behind Valverde.

But in outright speed, he seems to be a little below Viviani and even Sagan and Nizzolo in general. It will take a monumental team effort from Lindeman, Boom, Leezer, De Tier to take control at the front hitting the last 2kms, and he needs to be on a good wheel coming in to the last 500m. He could do it, he seems to get better as Tours go on, if Sagan is under par and Nizzolo screw up his positioning, he should go close.  It was interesting too to see that not one of them got in the break today, maybe it is all about trying to get that stage win for DVP tomorrow.

And then we're down to the 4th to 10th placed riders, guys who have flirted with the top 3 places, but are just on the fringes each time. Ivan Garcia Cortina has been riding really well in the last week or so, getting in lots of breaks on hilly stages. He either has really good legs, and should be watched in this sprint, or he's totally shattered after all that effort. I'm leaning towards the latter, I can't see him breaking the top 3. Same goes for Marc Sarreau, Ryan Gibson, Nelson Soto, Ion Aberasturi, Simone Consonni and Matteo Trentin - they are all just a level below Viv, Sags, Nizz and DVP. 

So.. QSF will probably win it.. we have the 'Viviani to win over 2 stages' bet still running, so we have an interest in him winning the sprint. And 4/9 is frankly ridiculous. But just in case he doesn't I'm going to go e/w on DVP, as I think LottoJumbo will be all in for this, and also on Nizzolo as I think he's the second fastest here on a pure sprint like this after Viv. Sagan should be close too, but he's too short for me at 7/2.

In play bet - 2.20pm: Jon Aberasturi to finish 4th to 9th. He was interviewed before the stage and said that he is "feeling good, better than in the first two weeks, I didn't start off well."  Euskadi have fond memories of this area as both Aberasturi and Bizkarra won stages in the neighbouring Vuelta a Aragon earlier in the year. I don't think he can top 3 it, but 11/10 to finish 4th to 9th is worth a shot. 2pts on that. 

Recommendations -

1pt e/w on Giacomo Nizzolo at 9/1 

0.5pts e/w on DVP at 8/1

2pts on Jon Aberasturi to finish 4th - 9th at 11/10 with 365 in play

Matchbets

TVDS to beat Vanbilsen - 2pts at 4/6

Sarreau to beat Consonni - 2pts at 5/6