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Published on Friday, 07 September 2018 22:44

Vuelta Stage 14

Cistierna – Les Praeres. Nava

Sat 8th Sept, 167kms 

Stage 2 of the Asturias-Leon tryptich, as they turn around and head back north again towards the coast. This is a really tough stage, culminating in the nasty 4kms climb to the finish at 12.5% gradient. 

Another stage that starts climbing right from the start, but it's a relatively easy opening 50kms they face today. After that though the stage is up and down for the last 90kms, with four categorised climbs to get over, including a very tough 1st Cat finish to Praeres de Nava, a summit finish being used for the very first time in the Vuelta. 

This looks once again like a profile that a break will have a great chance of succeeding on, with Quintana getting a little breathing space from the other GC rivals they might not be bothered about chasing and will be happy for them to take the bonus time at the finish. No point wasting energy with that finish to the end of the stage, save it and look to create time gaps again by exploding away in the last 4kms. 

Also, this could be a key day in the fight for the KOM jersey. There are two Cat 1s, a Cat 2 and Cat 3 out on the course, that's 28pts up for grabs, with another potential 10pts available on the finish climb if they make it all the way. Luis Maté is in a strong position of course, but Ben King, Bauke Mollema and De Gendt are in the hunt now too and could make big inroads in to his lead with a strong showing tomorrow. And even another rider could suddenly emerge as a danger by taking lots of points tomorrow, like Majka who has just 9 for now. 

Stage 13 Review

Yet another massive priced winner in this race, and I'd be pretty confident in saying that not a single penny was taken on Rodriguez, he must have been 1000/1 with those that quoted him, not all bookied would have even had him on their books. The big break went I expected, and we had both Restrepo and Zakarin in there, and I was getting pretty confident for our chances on Zakarin, especially when there were quotes coming out about how 'hungry' he was and how they were definitely going for the stage win.. 

But alas, when push came to shove, he attacked at the bottom of the hill, didn't get very far and was passed by Majka and Teuns, who looked like they were going to fight out the finish between them. Majka went to short odds on, but all the while a little yellow dot was slowly catching them. Kirby, as is his wont, got it wrong of course, calling him Prades, whereas it was 23 year old Oscar Rodriguez, riding in his first Grand Tour. 

He went on, Majka managed to get away from Teuns, who in turn was almost caught by Lambrecht, a man I've backed about 3 times in this race, and wasn't on the one day he did something.. I was just glad he finished 4th and not 3rd or I'd have been doubly pissed off. And Zakarin couldn't even manage a place, finishing 7th, all that work by Restrepo for nothing.. 

As it was, it was a pretty shit day. Almost all the bets went down as Pinot managed to beat a struggling Izagirre and Kruijswijk didn't wait for Bennett, who finished a minute and a half behind Quintana, that's his race done I think. At least Gallopin beat Kwiat, if he didn't I'd have given up I think. Something strange happened with Lopez, he was riding along fine, bouncing around the lead group when suddenly he was standing on the road, trying to clip back in.

Next pictures we saw was Quintana and Yates on their own and they looking around rather sheepishly, almost as if they were waiting for the others.. maybe there was a crash or touch of wheels or something that stalled a number of the GC favourites and Nairo didn't want to take advantage of it? Whatever happened, they rode steadily until about 100m to go when Nairo took off and quickly put 6" in to Yates.  

Behind, Lopez came charging through the field and ended up losing only 20" to Quintana, passing the likes of Kelderman and DDLC on the way, Kelderman shipped 25" to Quintana. So we're starting to see a bit of a picture to the GC heirarchy.. Quintana, Yates and Lopez look a level above Uran, Valverde, Pinot, Kelderman and Kruijswijk, with Bennett, Buchmann, Izagirre and Aru a level below that..

Quintana looked relaxed, sharp and fast, he broke the record for the Camperona climb, and that was including his little pause with Yates while they looked around. But Lopez would surely have been closer if he hadn't had his mechanical, I guess we'll have to wait until tomorrow to find out. 

The Route

They set out from Cistierna, climbing from the get-go again and there's a short little uncategorised climb that starts after just 3kms and then it rolls along for 50kms or so until they reach the Puerto de San Isidro. The San Isidro is an average of 3% for 11kms, but as it descends a little in the middle, the climbing part is actually quite a but steeper.

Once over the top they descend back in to Asturias for some 27kms, before starting a wave of four categorised climbs inside the next 84kms. First up is the Cat 1 Alto de la Calledona, a tough 8.1% gradient, but only 5.3kms long.

The Alto de la Mozqueta starts after 120.6kms and is 5.6kms long at an average of 8.8% but carries on climbing for another kilometre after the summit. Could it be the site of a long-range attack from one of the favourites looking to blow up the race? It's only 50kms from the finish, it's possible, but unlikely, they'll probably be keeping their powder dry again for the final tough climb. 

14kms of a descent and they're climbing again, this time it's the Alto de la Falla de las Lobos, an easier Cat 3 of just 5.3kms at 6.4%. 10kms of a descent, followed by 5kms on the flat and they arrive at Nava and start the final climb.

The climb to Les Praeres (right) is being seen for the first time in the Vuelta, and it's a real brute, averaging 12.5% for 4kms, but it quickly hits gradients of 15-17%, averaging closer to 17% for about 1,500m before a small little descent and a final climb to the line for the last kilometre averaging 10%, but being closer to 13% for the first 500m and 7% for the last 500m.

If it's a GC winner, it is going to be probably one of the lighter, smaller guys who kicks away with 3kms to go. Some could lose a lot of time in 4kms on this climb if they're not careful. 

Contenders and Favourites

Looks like another day for the break to go close, it's hard to see who will want to take up the chasing on such a tough and lumpy day. They will have to work hard all day with a tough opening to the stage, and then climb after climb over the last 90kms. With such a tough finish to come, and with the Lagos de Cavadonga to come Sunday, the GC men will want to keep their energy, and a few domestiques by their sides before they tackle the 15% gradients to the finish. 

Movistar will probably keep a decent pace though to strip out some of the stragglers, like they did today, possibly pushing a hard pace on the Calladona. If they go hard on the 11.5% section right at the bottom we might only have 30 or 40 guys left by the top, making it easier for the stronger teams to control things from then on. It will also mean that the break might have more of a chance of making it if the peloton has been whittled down to just that many riders.

At the same time, if Movistar, Bahrain, LottoJumbo, Astana or any of the other teams who fancy their chances at the finish work to keep a high tempo then the lead could start to drop quickly as the break tires and they tackle the Mozqueta and Los Lobos.  

Could we see some 'outriders' being sent up the road for an audacious early attack? Could Astana put Fraile, Zeits or Villella in the break, in the hope that Lopez attacks on one of the later climbs, bridge up to them and push on? Or maybe Movistar put Erviti or Anacona, or LottoJumbo put Floris de Tier or Tom Leezer, or M-S put Adam, Albasini or Howson? It's possible, but maybe it's a bit early in the race to be trying that tactic, maybe they'll be happy to wait and see how it plays out at the finish and try that next week. 

So breakaway lottery again.. I think we could get a super-group go again, there are lots of big time gaps now, and lots of guys will know that the break has probably a 70-80% chance of making it today again. Lots of teams have not got anything out of this race yet and we are almost on the second rest day, pressure will be mounting. There will be stage hunters in the break, but there will also be KOM hunters..

So expect all the Ms there again - Maté, Mollema, Majka, De Marchi, Mollard.. Add in the likes of Rolland, King, Geniez, Teuns, Nibali, Padun, Brambilla, Conti, Formolo, Luis Mas, Lastra, Restrepo.. all the usual break suspects who have been getting up the road, and you'd probably cover about 50% of the break. A lot of them used up a lot of energy though today, so maybe it might be worth focusing on some who didn't manage to get in today's break. 

I know I keep saying his name, but Herman Pernsteiner finished just 60" behind Lopez today, ahead of Bennett, he is climbing well and as I said before Bahrain will want to keep men in the breaks for the team prize. They sent Gorka today, might be Herman's turn soon. Or Mark Padun too, he took it easy today too but could be put up the road by Bahrain as well in search of more gains in the Team Classification.  

I was thinking Michal Kwiatkowski as he seemed to ride very well today, but looking at the GC, he's still only 5 mins down, he won't be let go in the break.. Maybe Tao Geoghegan Hart? He seems to be struggling at the moment though, can't trust him. And Henao was up the road today, that's about all the options from Sky really. 

Lotto had five men in the break today and they still couldn't finish better than 4th, although that ride by Lambrecht in 4th was pretty impressive. My old friend Armée finished 4th, I was not happy seeing him in the break either after backing him so many times. I'm not sure those guys will be able to go again, maybe they'll rest tomorrow and go again another day. so that leaves Tiesj Benoot and Jelle Wallays really, of which, Tiesj might not be a bad shout for this stage, he might be able to grind his way to the top of the final climb, if they have a far enough gap to hold on.

Michael Woods was fancied by some for today's stage, he was backed down to a ridiculous price of 14/1 or something stupid like that, but he wasn't that bad in the end, came home 2 mins behind Quintana. Maybe he'll try it tomorrow, a smaller break with less of the top climber types in it could see him ride to victory on these steep slopes. 

Maybe Davide Formolo will fancy another go after taking a break today? He looked good a few days ago but ended up 6th. This might be more a stage finish for him, he could ride away from the remnants of a break too. Omar Fraile rode really hard at the front today for Astana, then sat up and rolled home 11 mins down.. will they let him go free? Hard to know, seems they are all in for Lopez, and especially now that he has lost more time today, they won't want any more issues. 

Dylan Teuns has now finished in the top 5 on each of the last four non-sprint finishes, with two 3rds, a 4th and a 5th.. Amazing consistency, but surely he's starting to tire? With such good legs, it would be tempting to go again, but also maybe he just needs to time his big move better and wait.. take a rest tomorrow and let someone else have a go.. Alessandro de Marchi could fancy it again after a day off today, Nico Roche too maybe, but I can't see Nico winning on a finish like that..

What about Richie Porte? He's relaxed and cracking jokes, but if he really wants to get in some good training ahead of the world's, he'll need to open the taps one of these days and get a proper days' racing in, instead of just rolling home in the grupetto every day. But he did make more of an effort today, coming home 3 mins behind the GC men, maybe he'll have a crack.

He might even get Rohan Dennis to get off his arse and get a bit of training in ahead of the TT next Tuesday! But the prices have just come out now and Porte's just 22/1... that's a bit short.. I'm trying to get bigger on Betfair, if I can get 28/1 or so on him somewhere else I'll take that for fun. 

Pierre Rolland, Sergio Pardilla, Simon Clarke, Jan Hirt, Igor Anton, Vincenzo Nibali, Mark Padun, Alexander Geniez.. all will be trying probably to get in the break, Geniez looked good on Thursday, maybe he'll try again. 

As for the GC men, if it comes down to a GC finish, then expect the same names to come to the fore on this finish as we had today. Quintana was impressive, so was Yates, but Lopez probably was just as good, but was hampered by the chain drop. Kelderman said that that sort of climb was not for him with the steep gradients, but tomorrow's is similar, so hard to see him improving. 

Enric Mas was impressive to come home basically with Yates, and Valverde and Pinot did well too, Pinot better than I expected and DDLC, SK and the two Izagirre's were not far off either. But judging on how easy Yates and Quintana came home, and how much ground Lopez made up after his incident, you'd have to focus your attention on those three again.

Lopez's problem seems to be positioning again though, at one point with about 2kms to go, I couldn't see him at all in the lead group, he just wasn't there, out of camera shot. Then they cut away and came back a few seconds later and you could see him charging up the right hand side of the road like he was going on the attack, but he was just trying to get back in to the first 6 or 7 wheels.. A waste of energy and just creating panic and problems for himself.

If he can stay at the front, sit on Movistar's or Yates's wheel and go hard on that short flat part before the final kilometre, he might just get the jump on them and stay away for the win. He has even more ground to make up now so will be keen to quickly address that. 

But Nairo... looking so good.. he's in to evens favourite now and it's likely he will just keep chipping away at time on the others ahead of the TT, limit his losses in the TT and press on for victory at the end of next week. It now looks like his rivals will have to attack him, but who's capable of doing it? Lopez is, Kelderman is.. Tomorrow could see Lopez go for it, Kelderman might have to wait for a slightly easier climb I think. 

But expect a big break to go again. There'll be loads of guys chasing the KOM points, but with that distracting them and with Movistar looking to expose Yates again tomorrow (he only had Haig with him at the finale) I think it will be a super fast and aggressive stage tomorrow and we could see it go very close between staying away or being caught. If it gets caught, I'm going to go for Lopez, I think he'll match Quintana tomorrow and can outsprint him at the finish. But I'm throwing the break net out there again and trying a few short and long ones to see if they make the break. 

Recommendations -

1.5pts win on Miguel Angel Lopez at 7/1 on Betfair

0.5pt win on Richie Porte at 25/1 or better

0.5pts win on Davide Formolo at 25/1

0.5pts win on Michael Woods at 25/1

0.25pts e/w on Herman Pernsteiner at 80/1

0.5pts win on Mark Padun at 33/1

Matchbets

Yates to beat Enric Mas and Kelderman to beat Uran - 2pts at 1.15/1

Pernsteiner to beat Bizkarra - 2pts at 5/6

Woods to beat Moreno and Buchmann to beat Meintjes - 2pts at evens