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Published on Thursday, 06 September 2018 21:53

Vuelta Stage 13

Candás. Carreño - La Camperona

Friday 7th Sept, 174.8kms 

This could be a wild stage and could see a real separation between those who might win, and those who won't. They are climbing for more or less the first 100kms and they finish on the Cat 1 climb to La Camperona. 

This last climb might be short, but it's a real nasty one. It starts off very easy indeed, with the first 2.5kms of the climb barely even a hill, averaging less than 3%, but it will be enough for Movistar to strip a lot of the peloton out before the serious stuff starts. It gets a bit steeper in the next 1500m, up to 7%, then eases again to 3% for about 1500m more which could allow some guys who were dropped on the 7% section to get back on. 

Then it gets mad. Straight in to 15%, 16, 17, up to 19.5% gradients for the last 2.3kms, even touching 25% through a hairpin. It might only be 2.3kms of hell here, but there will be time gaps, we could see some GC men lose 30" to a minute or more in 2.3kms. It's a finish for the really light punchy goats, but will they be fighting it out for the win, or will a break have got there before them?

Well this finish has been used twice before in the Vuelta, and both times it was a break rider who took the win. Two years ago Sergei Lagutin hit the bottom of the climb with a 9 minute lead over the peloton, but the charging group of favourites reduced that gap to just 4'41" by the finish, with Nairo Quintana charging away in the last kilometer to take 25" off of Contador and 33" off of Froome.

And in 2014, Ryder Hesjedal was nearly 6 minutes ahead of the peloton entering the final climb, and despite Oliver Zaugg looking like the winner with about 1km to go, Hesjedal motored past him in the last 200m to take the stage win. The gap was reduced to just 2'36" by the finish to Froome, the first of the GC men home, but Wilko Kelderman was a minute and a half back on him. Imanol Erviti and Louis Meintjes are two who finished in the top 10 that year who are in the peloton again this year, and in 2016 we had Jhonathan Restrepo and Pieter Serry who finished in the top 10 after surviving from the break of the day. 

Stage 12 Review

Well I called that one spectacularly wrong, apologies about that, didn't see a break that big going and killing the stage immediately.. And not only was it massively annoying that we quickly got a very strong break go that looked very capable of taking the stage within a matter of a few kilometres, but it had no fewer than FOUR of the guys I picked out for yesterday's stage.. Brambilla, Van Baarle, Lastra and Conti made it, with Devenyns and Padun two more I've been backing also in there. 

The peloton sat up and with 30kms to go they held a lead of over 11 minutes and Jesus Herrada was heading in to the Red Jersey as he was the best place of the break, only 5'45" down. Vincenzo Nibali, Davide Formolo and Gianluca Brambilla were trading punches for a long way but in the end, a small group got clear to fight out the finish that included Padun, Geniez, Van Baarle, Campanaerts, Teuns and Formolo after they had dropped Brambilla and Devenyns in the last 5kms. 

And the surprise result was Alexander Geniez pipped Van Baarle in the sprint to the line, they were both at the back of five hitting 300m to go, but Geniez jumped first, got the gap and held it well, with Van Baarle being squeezed out in the last 20m. Padun made up the podium, annoyingly, not on a day we had him at 200/1 or something. Jesus Herrada has lept in to the lead in the GC though, he now leads Yates by 3'22".

Bahrian Merida struck a devastating blow in the Team Classification prize though, with Nibali and Padun gaining huge time and they have lept to the top of the standings with a 14 min lead over LottoNL Jumbo and 15 min lead over Movistar.. Movistar have work to do, but the three matchbets are looking better and better every day, will take some real bad luck to lose those now. 

If you saw my tweet this morning re. LottoJumbo in the Tour of Britain TTT you hopefully got some of the 6/4 on the top 3, and maybe, some of you took the 12/1 on them winning too. The 3/1 on Sky outside the top 3 was lovely, but BMC ruined what could have been a very nice bunch of bets by performing way below what was expected and losing. Still, it added 3pts to the pot, and helped repair damage done by the Vuelta bets. The sprinters blew two of the matchbets, but Bennett beat DDLC, and we ended up with a small 3pt loss or so overall. 

The Route

After starting on the coast they head south-west more or less for the whole day, then turns south-west with 40kms to go before looping around and heading north for the last 3kms. After a flat opening 8kms they start climbing on a 7km Cat 3, and that's followed by another small little climb after 33kms. Then the road starts to climb and doesn't stop going up for the next 60kms, climbing gently at first, it looks steeper on the profile than it actually is, only around 1.1% average. 

With 92kms gone they start on the Cat 1 categorised part of the climb, 13kms at 5.8%, a very steady climb with most of the steeper parts only 7%. The next 60kms are flat to downhill as they roll towards the final climb of the day, La Camperona. 

With 15kms to go they start to turn and head north, passing through the sprint point at Olleros de Sabero, which also marks the start of the final climb to the finish at La Camperona. The climb averages a not-too-tough sounding 7.5% for the last 8.3kms, but that doesn't really tell you the full story with this climb. The first 2.5kms average just 3%. The next 3.5kms average 5.4%, but there are steep bits in the first 2kms of around 7%, before it eases back to around 2.5-3% for the next kilometre. 

Then the road suddenly kicks upwards and the gradient becomes brutally steep hitting double digit gradients straight away, and averaging 15.2% for the last 2300m. With less than 1500m to go it hits a maximum gradient of 19.5% as it winds its way through some sharp turns, before easing slightly to around 11% for the last 200m.  

Contenders and Favourites

We've had break winners so far in 50% of the road stages, with Viviani and Valverde taking two stages each too from bunch gallops. And I think we are looking at a 50/50 chance again of the break making it today. Yes, the GC favourites will want a stage win, but this is the first really hard day of a tough few days to come, will any of them really want to go eyeballs out for a lot of this stage, wasting energy? Instead, they can let the break fight it out, and then have their own battle over the last 3kms, something that has happened both times they've come up here. 

Break candidates then... hmmmm so many to choose from.. you need to be strong to get away early over the first two climbs, we might not see a break go properly for possibly 40kms, there might be a break go on the first climb, they could be pulled back and then a second break go on the next little uncategorised bump.

Either way, I think a break of some 15 guys or so will go again early in this stage, I think there will be a lot of guys who will want to be in the break, knowing that it has a good chance of making it. Will some of those who were up the road today fancy it again tomorrow? I'm not sure, was quite a hard day for them. 

And then, you need to be a strong climber to get over the 13km Cat 1 climb in the middle of the stage, as the stronger riders might try to whittle down the group to make it more manageable (and faster) over the closing kilometers with some of the chaff removed. But you will also need to be strong to keep the peloton at more than about 4 minutes distance over the next 60kms, as you will need a decent lead starting the climb as we saw above - the GC men can take 3-4 minutes out of a break on the final climb. 

So who can do that sort of thing? Well a lot of the likely lads like De Gendt, Formolo and Brambilla had a really tough day today, so I think we can count out anyone who was in the break today. And we can probably count out any M-S, or Movistar riders, it will be all about protecting their team leaders until 3kms to go.

But Astana seem to be ok with sending guys up the road, Lopez seems to be able to look after himself pretty well and he'll have Bilbao, Hirt and Cataldo with him. Maybe Davide Villella might fancy it, he was on the attack yesterday so they must be giving him some room to try.

Omar Fraile must surely be thinking about getting up the road on one of these stages too, the problem is finding which one.. The profile to this one is quite similar to the stage he won in the Tour to Mende, this is a little bit harder than the pull up to Mende (3kms at 10.2%), but the steepest parts are similar. He took it easy for the last two stages, it could well be time to go again, and I'm sure he sees the similarities to Mende too, that was on stage 14.. 

Movistar might send Winner Anacona, he too was on the attack yesterday, it would mean they didn't have to chase as much either then and it will be up to M-S maybe to do the chasing.  

Now I'm going to say something that will probably make some of you laugh, as I have been lambasting this guy for the last few days, saying he had no chance to win... mainly I was lambasting the price really, people backing him down to 28/1 on a stage he didn't really have much chance on, and he having shown nothing to deserve being backed.. 

Yep, Steve Cummings is the man..!! He's come on to my radar as he finished less than a minute behind the GC group today, not way down in the Grupetto 26, 27 minutes down like a lot of other guys. He also said in an interview this morning that his legs are starting to feel good and he tried to get in breaks yesterday when it was all kicking off, but he was unable to make the right move.. And that he's going to keep trying. He's the kind of guy who could make this break, keep it powering along until the final climb and then just grind his way to the top like Hesjedal and Lagutin. 

Alessandro De Marchi could well try again now he's had a day's rest, he tends to go on multiple days when he's feeling good, and he'll be full of confidence. He rolled home 5 mins behind the GC group today, so just sat up on the run in to save energy, I wouldn't be surprised to see him involved too. 

Will his twin Bauke Mollema try again too? They seem to want to be in every break together, and he had a rest day today too. He might well try, he would be suited to that final climb, he powers up steep gradients in San Sebastian on that final climb every year, but is he getting a little tired? He was unable to shake off the others when he attacked yesterday and was unable to go with the winning move later on, his legs were gone. He might well find another way to lose from a possible winning position, and 14/1 is a joke price. 

Ilnur Zakarin is almost 20 minutes down now, he'd be given some room to go in the break if he did try to get in it, the GC men won't be worried about him. His problem will be getting in the break, but if he gets there, then he'd have a chance on a finish like this, he might be against far weaker climbers than him. Can he follow his compatriot Lagutin to victory? 

With Bahrain Merida now leading the way in the team classification they will be keen to keep it that way and will want to get someone in the break in case they do win by 4 or 5 minutes. Padun, Nibali and Pelizotti have been up the road in the last two days, so maybe tomorrow we might see Herman Pernsteiner go for them. When he finished 2nd on stage 3 of the Tour of Austria this year it was on the climb to the Kitzbüheler Horn, which averages 11% for 7kms. He could be involved tomorrow too. 

Bora still have Mani Buchmann just 24" off of Yates' lead in the GC, but as we saw today with Formolo and yesterday with Majka they aren't afraid to send riders up the road all the same when they can see that it's probably a day for the break to win. Rafal Majka looked good for a long time yesterday, but suddenly the lights went out and he was unable to follow any of the key moves and ended up rolling home in 7th, 1'46" after De Marchi. He looked shattered at the end, not sure I'd be trusting him with getting in the move and finishing it off tomorrow at just 16/1.

Sky have taken to sending men up the road now that they don't have a GC challenge, with Dylan Van Baarle coming very close today and Sergio Henao finishing 9th the day before after being part of the break of the day. Henao did well to get in the break, looked to be going ok, but then, like Majka, was just unable to go with the key moves. He looked pretty shattered at the end of the stage too, he's had a long season without ever looking like he would come close to winning a race, yet alone a top 3, so I'm going to overlook him for now.

Michal Kwiatkowski has been trying to get in breaks almost every day for the last 3 days but has been unable to.. He might try again on this lumpy start, but any sort of a decent climber will leave him for dead on La Camperona. Can't see any of the other Sky riders doing anything. 

Cofidis will be cock-a-hoop now after their Vuelta success to date, a stage win, KOM jersey and now the race lead with Herrada.. Will they all stick together and ride for Herrada's GC, or will they still let riders, and in particular Luis Angel Maté go up the road again? It's unlikely they will stop him as he could well put the jersey out of reach in the next few days by picking up the KOM points out on the road, there's a Cat 3 and 1 up for grabs again tomorrow before they reach half way.. But I can't see him fighting out the finish though, even if he makes the break, he must be feeling tired now and will want to save his legs for the coming days too. 

Pierre Rolland, Richie Porte, Laurens de Plus, Nico Roche, Daniel Moreno, Jose Goncalves, Jose Herrada, Sergio Pardilla, Maxime Monfort - all could get in the break, Laurens de Plus in particular says he is feeling really strong and is going to keep trying to get in breaks, but I don't think this is one for him.

Two riders who went close in 2016 are Jhonathan Restrepo, who just lost out to De Marchi on stage 11, he finished 9th last time here. He is feeling really good he said after stage 11, and he was full of regret for letting De Marchi go and for not attacking himself sooner.. Maybe he'll look to make amends at a massive price of 500/1. And Peter Serry who was 5th last time up here, he too might fancy it again at 300/1. 

And then of course you have the GC men - you can see how doubtful the bookies are that they will catch the break, as the GC favourites, Simon Yates and Nairo Quintana are 11/1 each.. If they thought they would be fighting out the stage win they'd be 2/1. Miguel Angel Lopez is 12/1 and that is a price that interests me, I think if they do catch the break it will be Quintana and Lopez who'll be fighting out the finish.

I have a feeling we see Movistar try to blow it up tomorrow and set up Quintana for an attack like he did last time up here, he could put 30-40" between him and the likes of Bennett and Buchmann and could gain time on some of his other close rivals like Kruijswijk and Kelderman. They will probably bully Cofidis in to doing the work for most of the day, saving their domestiques for an all-out assault in the final 5kms. Carapaz, Castroviejo, Anacona and Valverde will rip it up and Quintana will take off.. Will he go for it further out than 1km this time, in an effort to try to take more time? Or will he be content with going 1km out again and taking 30-40"? 

The thing is, we could see the little guys Simon Yates and Miguel Angel Lopez going with him this time, that is, if Yates is able to, he was distanced on the last climb. We could see anything from Yates tomorrow, he could take off and win, he could get dropped. I'm more worried about that latter than the former to be honest. I'm not as worried about Lopez, he's looking really good, and if it comes to just Quintana and him at the finish, I think he would outsprint him. 

Wilko Kelderman could be the dark horse here too though, he has been looking really strong so far and took it up to the others in the run-in on the last mountain finish on stage 9 to La Covatilla. He lost 90" though to Froome up here in 2014, but he's a very different rider to then, he was only 23 and riding only his third Grand Tour, and his second in the season. I think he will be right up there challenging on this finish and could well gain time that will pull him away from some of the other rivals. 

Rigoberto Uran could be right up there too, he's looked sharp and fresh, and he'll like this finish.. but he might find some of the young guns a bit too quick for him. Lotto Jumbo has so many options here, they could play a big part on deciding the outcome of the stage. Steven Kruijswijk has also looked good, he could be one to launch an early attack with 5kms or more to go and see if he can hang on while the others look at each other behind and wait and wait for Quintana to make his move.. 

If that doesn't work, they have Sepp Kuss to take things up and drag George Bennett in to a position to where he can maybe launch a late attack too, but will he be able to outgun the Colombians? I'm not so sure. And I don't think Alejandro Valverde will be winning, I think he'll struggle as it gets really steep. 

So there we have it, yet another fiendishly difficult stage to try to figure out, one that could see so many ways of winning. An early break, a late attack, a GC sprint between the favourites. I'm going for some break candidates, but also a nibble on Lopez for a win from a two-up sprint with Quintana..

Recommendations:

0.25pts e/w on Steve Cummings at 66/1

0.25pts e/w on Ilnur Zakarin at 66/1

0.15pts e/w on Jhonathan Restrepo at 500/1 

0.5pts e/w on Omar Fraile at 16/1

0.25pts e/w on Herman Pernsteiner at 150/1 

1pt win on Miguel Angel Lopez at 9/1

Matchbets

Bennett to beat Kruijswijk and Buchmann to beat DDLC - 2pts at 11/10

Add Izagirre to beat Pinot to make it a treble - 2pts at 9/4

Gallopin to beat Kwiat - 5pts at 2/5