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Published on Tuesday, 04 September 2018 13:23

Vuelta Stage 12

Mondoñedo – Faro de E. de Bares

Thurs 6th Sept, 177.5kms 

A run along the Galician coast on a stage that sees them climbing after just 5kms, but then flattens out for 120kms, before getting hilly inside the last 60kms again. The break has a chance, but it's probably one for the sprinters. 

It is quite a lumpy run in to the finish though, and with the roads narrowing in the last 10kms, especially in the last 2kms or so as they head to the finish in the northern-most part of Spain, it might be hard for the peloton to control a break and reel them in over the last kilometres. They hit a cat 3 just 5kms in to the stage, where the break will go, but QSF are likely to keep everything under control over the next 110kms or so until they hit the last 60kms. 

There is a surprise in store for the sprinters who make it to the last few kilometres though, teams that have reconned the finish will know what faces them, and it could make the difference between winning and losing.. The road is NARROW in the last kilometre.. it's barely a car width, so wide enough for maybe 3 riders abreast sprinting, four maximum, so if you're caught behind riders hitting the last 100m it will be almost impossible to pass them. It also slopes slightly upwards to the finish line just before the lighthouse (below). They might have widened it slightly, and redone the surface since these images were taken, but it won't be by much as there are stone walls at either side. 

And not only do they have the narrow roads and uphill finish to contend with, but the weather is going to be pretty unfavourable too, with a wet day forecast for them, and strong headwinds coming in off the Atlantic all the way to the finish line, winds of 16mph, gusting up to 20mph will make it a very difficult sprint finish and if you do take it up early to try to be at the front you will have the wind to contend with too. It will also hamper a break's chances of staying away over the last 6kms too as it is all in to the headwind until the finish.  

Stage 11 Review

A crazy, crazy opening 2 hours that averaged 48kmph and no break succeeding. There must have been 15 or 20 escape attempts of all sorts of sizes and makeup, some of which included our Brambilla and Pernsteiner. An early mechanical for MA Lopez was partly responsible for that, he was suddenly 90" behind the peloton and struggling to get back on as Movistar and M-S took up the pulling to try to stop him getting back in. 

When the break finally went, we had the surprise inclusion of Thibaut Pinot in a group of 19, and suddenly the gap was over a minute, then 2, then 3 and all the way up to 5. It was a super group with Majka, De Marchi, Rolland, Teuns, Fraile, Henao, Gibbons, Benoot, Pardilla and Haig. Our sole break man Nico Roche was also in there, one of three BMC men. Pinot was suddenly in the virtual red jersey and he continued to press on at the front, attacking with Teuns with 55kms to go. 

With 50kms to go they still held a lead of 3'40" with Movistar now taking up the chase, finally realising that Pinot could be a real danger again. The break started to fall apart though on the rolling roads, with first Mollema trying his luck, getting a lead of around 30" before being brought back again, Pinot tried, but he was also pulled back and Roche tried, getting 25" of a gap with Restrepo, and I was becoming a tad excited. 

But suddenly De Marchi bridged the gap in a flash and went so hard that he almost instantly dropped Roche. He eventually dropped Restrepo for good on a slight uphill in the pouring rain with about 5kms to go and soloed to a fine victory. Of course it was on a day that I had decided not to back him. Could be worse, could have been on the 9/1 Sagan, who was dropped, or the 28/1 on Cummings.. 

It was very disappointing though to have so many selections and the only one that got away for us was Roche. Pernsteiner and Brambilla tried at least, but to only have 1 of 19 attackers was very annoying. Considering how many people normally back De Marchi, he looked friendless today, I think a lot of people thought like me that this wasn't the right sort of stage for him. 

Behind, in the GC group, that was exploding too late on in the race and there were riders all over the place, with Quintana, Ion Izagirre and Lopez trying to force some time gaps in the last kilometre. But it was Valverde and SK that were the strongest at the finish, with Bala popping up in 12th to take back the points jersey from Sagan. With Sagan getting dropped on the first climb today and again at the finish, will we see him following Bouhanni and heading home shortly to try to prepare for the World's? 

The Route

5kms of a descent from the start and straight in to a Cat 3 climb that is pretty tough for a Cat 3, 5.8kms at 6.5%, it should be a good launching pad for a break to get away. They descend down the other side and head towards the sea, turn left at Ribadeo, and then run along the coast for more or less the next 70kms. 

After 110kms they turn south, away from the road that takes them to the finish and head towards the hills. First up is the Cat 3 Alto de San Pedro, a long enough little challenge at 8.7kms long, but averages just 4.6%, but with just under 50kms to go until the finish it might not have too much of an impact on the outcome of the stage. 

With 32kms to go there is an uncategorised little bump though which could well be where the last desperate attacks out of the break come if they are about to be reeled in, or indeed the last hopeful attacks if they have enough of a lead to be fighting it out for the win. It could also be the time as well though of course for the weaker sprinters to be put under pressure, if indeed it does look like it might be a bunch finish. 

A short descent, around 6kms on the flat, where they pass through the intermediate sprint with just 24kms to go and they come back to where they had passed through just 55km or so before that.

This time they take a left and head north towards the finish on the headland on Faro de Estaca de Bares Manón, passing over some quite energy-sapping, rolling roads, with short climb after short climb in the last 20kms.

The road starts to get narrower and narrower as they come through the last 10kms, especially so for the last 1.5kms or so (right). The road does climb up to about 3.5kms to go before diving down towards the finish through some tricky bends, with a short 500m pull with 1500m to go just before the downhill last kilometre.

From what I can make out on the photos of the road though, it is a slight uphill finish, even though the roadbook map seems to suggest it's downhill all the way to the line. 

Contenders and Favourites

The break might make it, but I'm going to say that today they won't.. I just think that the finish is suitable for too many teams to allow them to stay away. QSF will want to get Viviani up there for the hat-trick, Bora will fancy it with Sagan, and the other teams who have nothing from the race so far will want to try their luck in the sprint. For the sprinter/punchier types it's the last chance for a while to get involved with some really tough mountain stages ahead of them. 

If it does come down to a sprint finish though it's very hard to look past Elia Viviani again for two reasons. His team are probably going to dominate this run-in, and he's the fastest sprinter here without question. You just know that Morkov, De Plus, Serry, Devenyns and Sabatini will be at the front with 4kms or so to go to take it up in one long line with Viviani in tow. It will be ver hard to pass them and Viviani could have a clear run. 

But you just know that with a tricky run-in like this that Bora-Hansgrohe won't let them have it all their own way, as Peter Sagan will fancy getting off the mark here. The narrow roads, the twisting run-in, perfect Sagan territory, even possibly the uphill finish - uphill, but not too steep to see Valverde to come past him! Burghardt, Postlberger, Schwarzmann and McCarthy will be there battling with QSF for territory on the narrow roads, and if there is a battle for positions, Sagan and Bora will be very hard to shake off.

And it looked like Sagan is getting better and better.. 2nd on Monday without ever really looking like he was going full gas, but then he seemed to really struggle today. Maybe he was just saving the legs for tomorrow - if so and he gets a clear run he'll come very close to beating Viviani I think. 

LottoJumbo have the dilemma here of whether they commit enough men to DVP's chances but risk that a possible crash on such a tight finish could hamper their GC chances in the coming days when they need all the support they can get for Bennett and SK. I think though that they will still send a few men up to try to look after him, Boom, Leezer and Lindeman might be given those duties, but they are not in the same league as the QSF and BH leadout men. I think he can go close, but I can't see him beating the two above unless he catches a lucky break of some sort. 

Giacomo Nizzolo is very consistent in the sprints with a 2nd, 3rd and 5th so far, he's not been far off. He had a clear sprint on Monday though and he was actually losing ground to a soft-pedalling Sagan in the last 30m or so. His team are just not good enough either for a finish like this, Reijnen, Felline and maybe Brandle or Irizar are who he will be relying on and they are unlikely to get him in to a great position, he'll have to do it for himself, wasting energy. He just doesn't have the top speed either at the finish yet to beat the two favourites, but he's a solid looking 3rd to 5th sort of finisher again. 

There was a bit of a surprise 4th place finisher on Monday though with Nelson Soto squeezing his way through the stragglers to nick 4th place. Caja Rural had said he was going to try his luck in the sprint, he was probably 80 or 100/1 to win, would have been a tasty place price if he'd managed to get up for 3rd. Caja don't really have a leadout to speak of though and in a rough and tumble finish like this I would be surprised to see him come closer than 4th. More likely he'll be outside the top 10 again, he was nowhere to be seen on any finish up until now. 

Marc Sarreau finally got his act in gear on Monday too though, taking 5th in the sprint, unfortunately the one day we took him on with Cortina in a matchbet (who was only 2 places behind him)! He was sprinting well earlier in the year, racking up five wins and loads of top ten places, but it just didn't seem to be falling right for him up until Monday when he navigated his way through to a fine 5th place.

Will he kick on now and keep improving? He doesn't really have a leadout either to help him through these last 5kms when the pace will be furious, maybe Delage or Thomas might be able to help him a little bit, but they are no QSF or BH. The loss of Preidler today is a big loss to him too. He is capable of following wheels and taking another top 10 though I think. 

Could it be the day that we finally see Matteo Trentin click? With Yates still leading though, M-S will have enough to focus their energies on there, keeping him safe and limiting the amount of energy they waste. They will help with the pulling as the leading team, but I don't think they'll be going all in to pull it back, as they can't have hyge confidence in him finishing off the job. Where are the legs that won him the Euros?

Hard to know, but if he gets a cooler, wetter day again like the finish today it might fall more in place for him. If they can get Mezgec, Edmonson and Albasini up front to help him through the last 2kms he might just be close to the QSF train and could take a podium place. 

Ivan Garcia Cortina has been in the top ten three times, but no closer than 6th, It'll be hard to see him lifting himself on to the podium, he doesn't have the leadout or the speed. Same with Simone Consonni. Nacer Bouhanni has gone home, so that's one less in the sprint to worry about, and Ryan Gibbons will be exhausted after today's effort. 

But one that does interest me, who caught my eye when taking 8th in the last sprint was my old friend Jon Aberasturi.. He is getting closer and getting back to 100% after a crash early in the race, and with a number of these sprinters faltering, being in the break, dropping out etc, he could go a little closer at what is a huge price still. Euskadi will be desperate to take a stage in this race, and although it is a huge ask to outdo Viviani and Sagan, he might run the podium close.  

Tom Van Asbroeck got involved in the last sprint, will he be on babysitting duties again for Uran, or will he have the freedom to go for it? Either way, he's a 5th to 15th placer I think. Same with Tosh Van der Sande, Eduard Prades and Max Walscheid.

Prices have just come out and they have Viviani as evens favourite.. Of course it's dangerous backing a rider at such short odds in any race, let alone the crazy Vuelta, but there is odds against available on Betfair (2.1 at the moment, you'll probably get 5/4 or better) and as outlined above, I think QSF will boss this finish and lead Viviani to his third stage win.

Sagan is very short at 3/1, in light of his poor showing today, so that might open the door for 10/1 Nizzolo or 12/1 Van Poppel. But.. at 40/1, maybe it's time to have a crack at Trentin.. Well, he was 40/1 when the market opened, I wrote that sentence, and by the time I went to back him about 1 minute later he was already 25/1. I still think that's worth a shot, but 40/1 would have been beautiful. Yeah, he's struggling, but he wasn't far off in any of the sprints, taking 10th in the last one. With a bit of luck, a powerful leadout, and an uphill finish, he can possibly get a lot closer this time. 

Update - 22:10: Viviani is after drifting to 2/1 from 10/11 when they opened and that to me is a great price now. You can even get 5/2 on Betfair if you do Betfair. The money is coming for Sagan, he said on Twitter tonight that he knew that today's stage wouldn't suit him and he was 'saving his energies' for more suitable stages. Besides that there are nibbles at some of the bigger priced break candidates as people play the breakaway lottery. No one has priced up Aberasturi, I've asked 365 to, I'll update this if they come back to me with a decent price. 

Update - 23:40: Aberasturi is 200/1.. why not, small bet. 

TOB BETTING! I haven't really got involved in the TOB this year, been too busy.. But I've been chatting with my pro (is riding in the TOB) and he says that he thinks BMC are a great bet today.. Says that Froome is 'in terrible shape' and Thomas is on his holidays too.. he actually wrote 'LOL' when I told him Sky were the evens favourites, thinks BMC will win easy.. Kung and TVG are flying, but Roelandts and Drucker are good TTers too, and they also have Scotson and Bevin, two very strong guys in great shape.

He also thinks LottoJumbo are capable of landing a top 3 place, they are a decent price at 6/4 to do so, QSF are their rivals for it, maybe Katusha, but if Sky are really bad they could well podium easily.

So I'm having the following bets today.. 3pts win on BMC at 2/1 on Betfair (take the 7/4 elsewhere if no betfair), 2pts on LJ to finish in the top 3 at 6/4 with 365. I've also laid Sky at 2.1 on Betfair and had a small 1pt bet that Sky are outside the top 3 today at 3/1. 

Recommendations:

2pts on Elia Viviani at 11/10 or better on Betfair (looking for 5/4) (take the 2/1 if you haven't backed him until now)

0.5pts e/w on Matteo Trentin at 25/1 with 365

0.15pts e/w on Jon Aberasturi at 200/1 with 365

Matchbets

Valverde to beat Kwiatkowski and Nizzolo to beat DVP - 2pts at 1.2/1

Bennett to beat DDLC - 2pts at 11/10

Izagirre to beat Buchmann and Aberasturi to beat TVDS - 2pts at 6/4