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Published on Tuesday, 04 September 2018 13:50

Vuelta Stage 11

Mombuey – Ribeira S. Luintra

Wed Sept 5th, 208.8kms 

The longest stage of the Vuelta, and a stage that looks perfect for a breakaway to succeed, with a rolling course over 208kms. The final Cat 3 climb that tops out with 20kms to go could well decide the winner, although there's another 'hidden' hill with less than 6kms to go too.

They head further west, almost on the coastline as they play out the last stage before hitting the Pyrenees and the run along the north of Spain. But that's not to say that this stage isn't a hilly stage, far from it, there's barely a flat kilometre of road after the first 30kms are done. From there it's up and down all day in a very tiring looking profile, which sees them climb eight climbs of varying length and steepness, four of which are categorised, the toughest being a Cat 2 with 70kms to go. 

There is the Cat 3 climb with 20kms to go that could well see the break disintegrate and the strongest pull away, but also there is a pull uphill at 5% from over 5kms to 3kms to go which could also see late attacks, and the last kilometre is also uphill, dragging at 2.5%. So you'll need to keep something in reserve for the last 25kms of this stage, look for men with stamina and experience for a stage like this.

It is though in fact the same finish as stage 6 in 2016 when Simon Yates attacked after the break of the day was caught and powered away to win the stage impressively, with Luis Leon Sanchez outsprinting Fabio Felline and Ben Hermans for second after a small group had slipped off the front of the peloton too. It's a very fast run-in and we could see a similar late attack rewarded with the victory. 

Being a former winner here, and showing the sorts of legs he did on stage 4, will Yates go hunting the stage win and the bonus seconds on this finish? M-S will have the duty of controlling the race anyway, with Yates in red, will they raise the pace that little bit more than necessary in order to give their leader a shot at victory?

But guess what.. it looks like we will have thunderstorms and rain on Wednesday, and not just in the morning or evening, but looks like they'll have it all day, with the most chance of heavy rain in the mid afternoon, just when things will be hotting up on the road. No real wind to speak of, but the roads could be pretty wet and greasy on some of those descents. 

Stage 10 Review

So as expected really, Elia Viviani got it spot on today and notched up his 2nd stage win, after an amazing leadout by the QSF boys. Viviani reckoned it was the best leadout job they have done this year, and it's hard to argue, they did a brilliant job. Peter Sagan did as well as I expected really, he looked like he was only soft pedalling, he got squeezed a bit by Viviani when he tried to go up the inside and he still beat all the others. 

Nizzolo was close, but really wasn't close enough, and there were impressive sprints by Nelson Soto in 4th and Marc Sarreau in 5th. Danny Van Poppel was 6th, hopefully some of you followed me in with the tweeted tip I sent out about an hour before the finish, of Van Poppel to finish 4th to 9th at 20/21 with 365.

Mixed luck with the matchbets, Gibbons left us down with a poor showing, but we came out almost a point up at least overall. We're almost there with the Viviani to win over 2 stages though, he's surely going to finish that off before the end of this race.  

The Route

They head west, skirting just north of the coastline, and the road lulls them in to a false sense of security over the opening 30kms as it is flat and uncomplicated. From there, it is up and down all day. They hit a Cat 3 after 32kms and 92kms, but in between the road rolls and pitches over little bumps and hills, and generally descends for the next 95kms or so. 

The toughest climb of the day on paper is the Cat 2 Alto do Trives, which comes after 128kms, this averages 4.3% for 8.8kms, but it's so far from the finish, it shouldn't cause too much damage, bar maybe shaking a few of the weaker guys out. It climbs a little bit more in the next 5kms after that, then descends in waves for the next 25kms to take them to the final categorised climb, the Cat 3 Alto de Mirdaor de Cabazoas which tops out with just 20kms to go. 

The hills don't stop there though, as there is a hill that starts with about 6kms to go, climbing at around 5% until 3kms to go, then it descends to the 1km to go banner and it's uphill at around 2.5% for the last kilometre. The road is very smooth and wide though, perfect for a fast late attack. The road gets a bit twisty between 2kms and 1kms to go, but the last kilometre is more or less dead straight, bar a little kink in the road with about 600m to go. 

Contenders and Favourites

Hat-trick for Ben King? I don't think so.. but I wouldn't be surprised to see him try to get in the break of the day again. I give the break a pretty decent chance of making it again today, there are a lot of tough stages to come in the next few days, I'm not sure the GC men will want to waste their, or their team's energy on a tricky stage like this. So it's lottery time again, time to pick a few lucky numbers. 

Teams who will want men in the break.. and just for future reference, I'm making a case for some of these guys for future stages, I won't repeat myself!

Lotto Soudal.. lots of options, several of them will try, they may even end up with more than one rider in the break if a large group goes.

Thomas de Gendt - if at first you don't succeed, try, try and try again. De Gendt has been in weird form for a number of months now, I've given up wasting money on him when he doesn't seem in the right form or frame of mind. 

Sande Armée - going in on him again, I think he'll pull something off soon and this stage might suit him. 

Bjorg Lambrecht - has been in superb form for a first-year pro, his results this year have been incredibly impressive, racking up decent results in big races like Catalunya, Itzulia, Tour des Fjords, Tour de Suisse and Tour de Pologne.. The right break could see him pull off a decent result, but the distance might be a bit long for a young 21-year old. 

Tiesj Benoot - he might well be feeling a lot better after several days of rest now, and this lumpy, rolling course will suit him perfectly too, he's the kind of guy who can attack away to win the stage in the closing kilometres, as long as his knee holds up. 

And even Jelle Wallays, Victor Campanaerts, Tosh Van der Sande and Maxime Monfort could also get involved, they have loads of options and it would be a major shock to me if none of them made the break.  

Cofidis

Luis Angel Maté - that's probably about it, he's going to go after all those easy points out on the route

Trek

Bauke Mollema - he'll keep trying I think, will he be tempted by this one again so soon? If he does, then maybe he'll finally get the tactics right and finish off the good work. He could attack on that final Cat 3, if he's strong enough he could finish off a lot of the other guys, and he also has a chance on that last lump with 5kms to go. But he did go pretty deep on Sunday, will he have the legs, and the heart to go again?

Gianluca Brambilla - he's been pretty quiet so far in this race, but hasn't been far off the pace at all. In 2016 when he won on Aramon Formigal it was stage 15, so he does seem to get better as races go in to their second and third week. That day he was in a break with the likes of Nairo and  Contador, but he held on in their with them and outsprinted Nairo at the finish. If he can get in the break, he'd have a big chance of stealing the stage with this run-in. 

BMC

Again, could have loads of options...

Dylan Teuns - did great in stage 9, but just found the last climb a bit too steep for him in the middle when Mollema stepped on the gas. Did brilliantly to hang in there for 3rd though with the pack breathing down his neck. This stage looks a lot more like it for him, but again, will he be capable of going again so soon after going so deep on Sunday?

Alessandro De Marchi - has rested up for a few days now and should be ready to go again. But will he want to go on the attack in a long and wild stage like this where he could be outsprinted at the finish, or will he rather keep his legs for some of the uphill stage finishes to come later this week? 

Richie Porte - sure why not try another day in the break, if they get to the final climb clear of the peloton he could well ride away from everybody. Maybe he'll wait for some of the tougher stages to come later in the race, but this looks like a finish he could win on if he does decide to go for it.

Nico Roche - has been suffereing in the heat, but it's going to be raining on Wednesday.. Is this the day we finally see Roche get up the road and try something? He too could be a big danger on this finish if in a small group. He confirmed he's going to Sunweb next year, time to maybe sign off in style? 80/1 is worth a nibble.. 

EF Education First 

Simon Clarke - has already shown he is capable of doing well on a day like this with his surprise win on stage 5 on a similar profile. Confidence will be high, he's had five days rest now, might be time to try again. 

Michael Woods - has tried his hand in the break on a day that the break was never going to have a chance and was mopped up as the peloton turned on the gas. Will he wait for the steeper stages to come, or give it a go on a slightly easier stage where the break has more chance of sticking? 

Pierre Rolland - Maybe he'll wait for a hillier day, but he's had a few days rest now too and might fancy going after some KOM points.

Tom Van Asbroeck - might just get a chance to try something tomorrow, he finished very well today in 11th, his best finish so far. If he can get in the break, he could be one of the fastest at the finish. The only problem with the Cannondale lads is that they seem to be all in to protect Uran, who seems to be riding well.. Maybe they'll be keeping their powder dry for the rest of the week.. But I think TVA might fancy getting away. 

UAE 

Valerio Conti - now with Dan Martin gone home, UAE don't have many options for a stage win, I can't see Aru winning one and I don't think he's going to mount a serious GC challenge, so they might try to send guys up the road when they get the chance. Trouble is, they don't have too many options. Ravasi and Petilli might try, Consonni might try to win it from the break, but their best chance is probably Valerio Conti who was on the attack already in this race and finished 12th in stage 5. The stage he won in 2016 was stage 13 on a similar sort of profile and it's about time he won another big one. 

Astana

Will they want to send men up the road with Lopez in such a great position to go for the win? 

Andrey Zeits - With Bilbao, Fraile, Hirt, Cataldo and Villella all probably going to be asked to mind themselves to look after Lopez in the coming days, Zeits might be given the green light to go to up the road, or maybe NIkita Stalnov will give it another go after coming so close on stage 4. 

Quickstep

Dries Devenyns - another who I thought might have done something before now, he came back after a hernia operation earlier in the season to perform well in Poland. He led home the second group on stage 2 on the hill up to Caminito Del Rey, just 8" behind Valverde. His wife is expecting their second child soon, maybe he'll deliver a stage win for the baby instead of Dan Martin? He was 66/1 when I went to back him on 365, but the ticket changed to 40/1.. He is 45/1 with Paddy Power if you can take that, the 40/1 is worth a nibble too though. 

AG2R 

Alexander Geniez - winner of the GP Marseillais at the start of the season on a very similar course to this, he's carried on riding well during the season, taking 4th on a tough stage 11 of the Giro and 4th in a lumpy stage of the Tour du Limousin. Gallopin will be sticking with the GC guys as he's doing very well in the GC, but Geniez might get the green light to go..  

Bahrain Merida

Herman Pernsteiner - The Austrian has been riding well this year too, taking a win in the Gran Premio Citta di Lugano on a lumpy course in June, and took a 2nd, 7th and 8th in the Tour of Austria on his way to 2nd in the GC. With Ion Izagirre riding high in the GC, most of them will be on a leash, but Pernsteiner might be allowed go. He's 24th on the GC, but over 6 minutes down, so he won't be let win by over 6 minutes, but if he wins by 2 minutes or so, M-S won't be too bothered. 

Caja Rural

Jonathan Lastra - Made a case for him a few stages ago, he's been in good form this year and was in the break in stage 5 finishing 8th. I think Pardilla will save himself for the stages to come, Alex Aranburu might also fancy it. 

Sky

Dylan Van Baarle - so Sky.. all chances of a gc result are gone I think, what do they do from here? Will we see them start to try to take stage wins from breaks? DDLC, Kwiat and Henao will wait for more lumpy stages possibly, but this could be one for Van Baarle who has looked strong this year and with a bit of freedom could be a dark horse for a stage win. 5th in the opening TT shows he has good legs, and he knows how to go well on a lumpy course, having finished 4th and 6th in Flanders and winning the Tour of Britain in 2014.  

And that's about all I can think of for now - Movistar, M-S and LottoJumbo will keep their cards close to their chests for now, saving legs I think. I'll come back to this tonight when odds are out to try to whittle down this very long short list to a shorter selection of bets, but you see where I'm coming from anyway for now.  

Update - 21:50: So prices are out, and they've made Sagan favourite.. I honestly didn't see that coming.. but you can see why, he might get in the break, but also, if it's pulled back, the finish is perfect for him. But I like the prices of some of my picks, I'm going to scatter a few bets around and see if we can get some of them in the break, which I think can fight out the stage win. Fraile is too short for me though at 14/1, not sure he'll go for this one, there might be others he'll prefer. 

Recommendations -

0.5pts win on Gianluca Brambilla at 28/1

0.5pts win on Valeria Conti at 33/1

0.25pts e/w on Nico Roche at 80/1

0.25pts win on Bjorg Lambrecht at 80/1

0.25pts e/w on Sander Armée at 200/1

0.2pts win on Herman Pernsteiner at 300/1

0.2pts win on Jonathan Lastra at 250/1 

0.2pts win on Dylan Van Baarle at 300/1

0.2pts win on Tom Van Asbroeck at 250/1

Matchbets

Brambilla to beat Gorka Izagirre - 2.5pts at evens

Add Valverde to beat Kwiatkowski to make it a double - 2pts at 1.9/1