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Published on Thursday, 17 August 2017 19:10

Team Classification

Who'll win the 2017 Vuelta team prize?

The Team Classification prize should be a very tight contest this year. The top GC teams are packed with top quality riders, there's not a lot of difference in terms of quality and they will all be fighting for every place on every stage.

It is a tricky contest this year though, several teams have multiple options when it comes to the climbing stages that could see a number of teams with 2-3 riders finishing high up in quite a few stages. So it might come down to who the 3rd rider home is on those key stages, a third decent climber who can finish close will help a team to do well in this competition. Teams need luck too, as we saw in the Tour, Valverde crashing out in the prologue of the Tour completely destroyed Movistar's hopes of doing well in the competition. 

And so it is that it's the team with three top climbers in their ranks, Orica-Scott who are the 5/4 favourites to take the team prize tonight with Bet365, the only team offering odds on the competition so far. Yes, Chaves and the Yates brothers will do well and could well be in the top 15-20 on all the mountain stages if all goes well, but they also have Jack Haig, Magnus Cort Neilsen and Carlos Verona who could score well from breaks for them too so it's understandable that they are favourites. 

Movistar are 4/1 second favourites and they will be looking to Marc Soler, Ruben Fernandez, Dani Moreno, Richard Carapaz and Jorge Arcas for the climbs, Soler, Moreno and Fernandez should do well for them and they almost look a more rounded and solid team than Orica. But you don't need all the team to be better overall, you just need the first three home every day, and it may be that the Orica boys just have that bit more climbing power than the best at Movistar, but it could be close, and at the prices, Movistar almost offer the better bet. 

Team Sky are a big looking 6/1 though, with Froome, Poels, Nieve, Moscon, Lopez and Rosa in their ranks. Froome and Poels will finish high up in most stages and I wouldn't be surprised to see Poels take off on some stages to try an attack late on when the others all look at Froome and are afraid to take up the chase. Moscon and Rosa are capable of getting in breaks that could take a lot of time some days and Lopez and Nieve can be the back-up men to be 3rd home on most of the climbs. I think the 6/1 looks a good bet on them, I just wish I could back it e/w but 365 are just going win only at the moment, maybe someone else will go e/w later on.

BMC and Astana are both 13/2, BMC have a solid, yet unspectacular team - highlighted by the fact that Tejay Van Garderen is almost forgotten about when the favourites are being named, he's not even being named as an outsider.. The team was also rocked by the positive doping result for Samuel Sanchez just today which might affect the morale in a team that was already quite tense from what I'm hearing. Roche will go well, he always does in Spain, De Marchi will be on the attack, but the rest of the team are pretty average. No bet for me. 

Astana have two very lively contenders here though for the GC in Aru and Lopez and they will be involved in the key mountain stages for sure. The backup comes from Lutsenko, Sanchez, De Vreese and Hansen, so they could be close as well, a number of them will get in breaks and de Vreese, Lutsenko and Hansen will finish highly on a lot of the stages. But maybe not as high as Orica or Sky's guys. 

And that's about all that I am going to consider, although AG2R might be an ok outsider at 14/1, but not for me. For now, I'm having 1pt win on Sky at 6/1 and will see if someone goes e/w later and I might consider going in again. 

Recommendation:

1pt win on Sky at 6/1 with 365