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Published on Wednesday, 23 August 2017 00:04

Vuelta Stage 6

Vila-real to Sagunt

Thurs 24th Aug, 204.4kms 

A very similar stage to yesterday's, but without the uphill finish! It's almost a carbon-copy of stage 5 with a dip inland in to the hills and a roller-coaster profile that sees them go over four Cat 3s and a Cat 1 climb, but this one has a flat last 10kms.

This looks another stage that is perfectly suited to the breakaway, and one that the peloton might be happy to let go fight it out and take a day off instead. If there is someone close enough, but not too good to worry about, Froome probably won't mind losing the jersey maybe, but I'm sure the GC teams won't let the gap get too big.. 

The Puerto del Garbi will be the deciding factor of the race probably though, the 16-22% section in the middle 3-4kms will separate the men from the boys of the breakaway and there's only 36kms to go from the top, most of which is downhill. If it's one solo rider, or maybe a small group makes it over the top with a 30-60" lead they may not be caught by the chasers.

It will be a headwind of 7-10 mph on the way back to the finish though so it's going to be tough going to be out front on your own. The last 5kms are through the city streets though so they will be offered some protection and the last 800m is along the seafront with the wind now coming at them as a cross/tailwind. 

Stage 5 Review

Well that was all a bit crap from the peloton wasn't it? With the break within comfortable reach with just 65kms to go, it all looked like it was going to plan. But then for some inexplicable reason, Sky just stopped chasing, and no one else took it up. Orica should have been the ones chasing, but they wanted none of it, so Sky basically said, 'fuck you all' and stopped dragging the peloton along. Cannondale didn't chase as they had Villela up the road, Quickstep didn't chase as Alaphilippe was in the break too. Suddenly the gap balloned up from 3'25" to well over 5' and that was that. 

Lutsenko went in pursuit of Haller, they joined and built a lead of almost a minute, it yo-yoed back and forth, with Alaphilippe trading in to evens and odds-on as it looked like they would catch the guys in front, but ultimately they faded behind, with Alaphilippe one of those unable to go with Gougeard and Kudus who went in pursuit of Lutsenko. But Lutsenko held on to land odds of 100/1, Alaphilippe backers were left disappointed as he could only finish in 7th and anyone who backed GC candidates like us knew the writing was on the wall 40kms from home. 

Luckily all the matchbets won, with Adam beating Simon and Woods beating Roche for the double and DLC beating Nibali comfortably for the other. So we just about broke even today, we'll fight on. Froome now leads from surprise package Tejay by 10", Chaves just 1" further back in 3rd. Roche and De La Cruz lost small time, and Nibali, Yates and Aru are all still within a minute. But Froome is looking ominously good at the moment. 

Surprise of the day though was Alberto Contador coming home first of the GC men, outsprinting Froome to the line, with Woods landing the 'place' if they had been fighting for the stage. Contador was battling illness this morning, John Degenkolb abandoned because of his illness, and those who were laying Contador for the stage at 130 this morning on betfair must be mighty relieved that the break held on!! 

The Route

They start in Vliareal and head south-west parallel to the coast as far as Nules where they turn inland and start climbing after just 13kms, and even though they are climbing for the next 35kms, the Cat 3 part is just 11kms at 3.4%. A quick dip and up to the second climb, the Cat 3 Puerto de Eslida, a shorter one at just 5.3kms, but steeper at 5.2%. Still nothing to really worry about, although some of the sprinters may be on their own from here on.

A dip down in to the valley and up the other side to the Alto de Chirivilla, another Cat 3 of 7.9kms at 4.6%. A long 35kms descent takes them down to the furthest south-west corner of the route, before they turn back north-east and start on the Puerto del Oronet, another Cat 3 climb of 6.4kms at 4.1%. Again, nothing of any real concern to the GC guys, they may well be just rolling along chatting on this as the break will have built up enough of a lead to fight out the stage win.

The main challenge of the day though starts with 158.7kms gone, the Cat 2 Puerto del Garbi, and this one is a bit tougher though, averaging 5.6% for 9.2kms, but there are some really steep sections in the middle hitting 16-22%, the overall average is dragged way down by two downhill sections and some much flatter sections, or almost 5kms in total of the 9.2kms which are not really climbing. From kilometre 4 to 7 the average gradient is over 10% and the last 200m average 9%. It's downhill all the way to the finish town of Sagunt, almost 32kms of descending, but then the last 3kms to the finish line are dead flat as they head to the finish on the shoreline. 

There are nine tricky bends and roundabouts to negotiate in the last 5kms, but it's unlikely that we will see the peloton fighting out this finish I think, so it shouldn't be too dangerous. One last left-hander with 800m to go and then it's straight all the way to the line bar one big roundabout with 200m to go.  

Contenders and Favourites

This is a stage for the breakaway again I think, I'm going to focus my thoughts just on breakaway guys for now.. Thomas de Gendt is sure to like this stage again, especially as he can rest up more or less the next day on what looks like a pretty boring stage, and he missed out on that big break today. He was one of the first to attack on stage 2, but ran out of gas on the Rabassa as Geniez and Ferrari pulled away. I think he'll go again, especially if he wants to get back in the KOM race, there are easy points to be picked up possibly today.. 

Alexander Geniez could go with him if he really wants to go for the KOM jersey, Davide Villella leads by 19 points now from Mas and 20pts from Geniez and De Gendt, so these guys need to get cracking if they want to get back in the KOM race. But I'm a little concerned that Geniez might actually save his legs for a harder day with more points later in the race, it would be a lot of energy wasted for not a lot of gain at the end of the day, one Cat 1 would deliver more points than three Cat 3 climbs. 

Caja Rural have been busy as well getting riders up the road every day, they are sure to try again you'd have to think, but who? Fabricio Ferrari might try again, Nick Schultz might, but they probably won't be winning so I'll skip over them I think.

One team that had been conspicuous by their absence from breaks up until Kreder today are AquaBlue, the team that seems to have been in every break, in every race since the start of the season. Well they had good reason for that, as they were hoping to get a good result in the first two sprints with Adam Blythe. They may be disappointed with only 3rd in stage 2, but they should be pretty chuffed with a podium in only their 2nd ever Grand Tour stage, it's a great foundation to build on for the rest of the race.

They might send someone up the road again today, as the break has a good chance of making it, and the day after is a possible sprint (if they can get over the Cat 3 with 12kms to go). Stefan Denifl and Larry Warbasse might fancy it, but whether they save their legs for a tougher mountain break opportunity is the question. Instead, Lasse Norman Hansen might fancy this one, the hills aren't too hard, he's a decent climber (won the KOM in the Tour de Suisse this year) and is a good time triallist if he can get over the top of the final hill near the front, he could time trial to victory. He's worth a shot at 125/1.

Cannondale have been relatively quiet so far with breakaway attempts, but could we see one up the road today? I'm hearing they might be sending Toms Skuijns in the break today, that he fancies the course and I want to be on him. Skuijns shot to fame of course, unfortunately for the wrong reasons with his crash in the Tour of California, but he returned to action a month later with 2nd in the Latvian TT champs, so he's fully recovered.

He won a brilliant stage of the Settimana Internazionale Coppi e Bartali on a very similar course to this one earlier in the year on his way to 2nd overall. And last year he won a great stage in the Amgen Tour in the US which featured two Cat 2s and a Cat 3 at the finish. This is his kind of stage alright and I know he fancies giving it a go, I was hoping for something bigger than 100/1 but he is 80/1 with 365 and I want to be on, fingers crossed he makes it in to the break. 

Bizarrely 365 have made Julian Alaphilippe their 6/1 favourite for the stage, and I can't understand that. He seemed to struggle a lot for me today and he's had a hard day, I can't see him going up the road again tomorrow, especially as Quickstep have so many other guys in that team who can have a go. I see Matteo Trentin has been backed from 14s to 12s to 9/1 and I guess some are guessing he will make it over that final climb, either with the break or with the peloton who have caught the break, and sprint to victory.

But I don't think he will - as well as he is riding, that 2kms at over 12% on the final climb are sure to see him off, the punchier guys won't want to bring him to the finish. If he does make it over you'll still probably get 5 or 6/1 in play maybe on him so keep an eye out for that. 

Luis Leon Sanchez is very short too at just 12/1 and I'm guessing that he has said somewhere along the line that this is a stage he likes and is going for it. It can be the only explanation for someone like him to be just 12/1, but I'm not buying it. He has to get in the break first, and then win from the break, I'm not sure he'll do either.  

Omar Fraile is 14/1, and he needs to start winning some KOM points to stay in the game, we haven't seen him yet, he's been very patient (or hasn't had the legs!). This stage should suit, but if he goes after KOM points then he probably won't win on a finish like this. No bet at 14/1. Bob Jungels is just 16/1 and he's going really well at the moment, the team were singing his praises after the TTT on Saturday. He is on babysitting duties with DLC, but if he is near the front on the descent back towards town he might try to get away. But 16/1? Seriously?

Rui Costa 16/1? Again, I ask, seriously??!! He won't win if there are any decent sprinters with the peloton if it's a peloton finish, and it's highly unlikely he'll get in the break.. so 16/1? Shove it! Same goes for Lutsenko at 18/1, only Valverde can win two stages back-to-back. Of the punchy climber types that might make it and contest the finish (and that goes for a peloton finish, or possibly as part of the break)  Giovanni Visconti, Simon Clarke or Pelle Bilbao could all get involved. 

But the two final guys I have a tiny interest in backing for this finish, as they may be part of the break, or will be near the front if it comes down to a bunch finish, are Juan Jose Lobato and Patrick Konrad. They are both good strong riders who should be ok on this course, and they are slightly bigger in odds than all of those guys mentioned. Lobato came very close on Tuesday, it looked like he might win with 150m to go, and I think he has a chance tomorrow - he could get in the break, possibly with a team-mate and he has a chance of staying in there all the way to the finish and is worth a bet at 33/1. 

Patrick Konrad may get a chance to try something tomorrow, Majk has been sick and is just doing his best to hang in there up until now, but he should be ok tomorrow and Konrad might get a chance to try something. And even if he doesn't make the break he could have a chance from a reduced sprint. He's 40/1 with 365.

Movistar might try to get a man in the break, they are right up there in 2nd place in the team category, and a winner who wins by possibly a big margin tomorrow will help that cause. JJ Rojas might try to hang in there for the sprint, but I think I might give their Portugese TT champion Nelson Oliveira a shot of getting up the road and possibly time trialling his way to victory. He's only 4'52" down but he might be left have a bit of rope, or could attack on the way down from the final climb.

Impossible to call how this one will go tomorrow, there could be any of about 50 guys win and the odds out there are so shit it makes it hard to recommend any with confidence. So I'm going to scatter a few bets around and hopefully we'll catch a fish or two for the break or for the sprint finish. Just a few nibbles, not a day for going big really. 

Update - 10:10am - added Fraile at 21 on Betfair for 0.5pts, Dim Data posted a tweet with a picture of a smiling Fraile and said 'someone is feeling upbeat today'.. he might be thinking about kick-starting his KOM charge after all. 14s was too short, but 21 on betfair is worth a small interest in case he does get in the break.. it could be a big break today and he might have team-mates to help him. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Toms Skujins at 80/1 with 365

0.25pts each-way on Juan Jose Lobato at 33/1 with 365

0.2pts each-way on Patrick Konrad at 40/1 with 365

0.2pts each-way on Lasse Norman Hansen at 125/1 with 365

0.2pts each-way on Nelson Oliveira at 150/1 with 365

0.5pts win on Omar Fraile at 21 on Betfair (the 16s on 365 is just about acceptable if you don't have betfair)

Matchbets

No matchbets of interest whatsoever - absolute coin tosses and pointless matchups on a stage like this.