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Published on Wednesday, 06 September 2017 23:07

Vuelta Stage 18

Suances to Santo Toribio de Liébana

Thurs 7th Sept, 169kms 

An interesting stage.. it almost a nothing stage, and if this was in the Tour de France, it would be a boring 169km slog that got interesting for the last 5kms, but somehow, as this is the Vuleta, I think we might see a bit more action. 

The stage has no fewer than 12 different little hills as far as I can see, of which only four are categorised, and they are only three Cat 3's and one Cat 2 climb. The opening 100kms are pretty flat, but with lots of little hills along the way, which will only serve to help the break escape early on in the stage.. And coming on the back of the tough stages we've just had, I'd give the break a pretty good chance of staying away today, who is going to want to chase on a day like this??

Stage 17 Review 

A crazy, crazy stage won in dramatic fashion in the end from the break by Stefan Denifl. It was an amazing win in the end by the AquaBlue man to secure their first Grand Tour win in only their first Grand Tour, truly the stuff of dreams for them. Lopez tried, but went too early as far as I'm concerned, he should have waited for the inevitable Contador attack and followed that instead. Contador was outstanding once again, attacking and driving it all the way to the line, and unfortunately for him (but fortunately for us and our 'no stage wins bet') he was just unable to catch Denifl. 

Behind, Froome struggled as predicted on the steeper slopes at the bottom and never recovered as his rivals ganged up on him and went for the jugular. In the end Lopez outsprinted Nibali and Zakarin for 3rd to pick up 4 bonus seconds and 6 KOM  points, he now sits 7pts behind Villella. Chaves has dropped out of the top ten, but DLC has snook back in to the top ten for us, so at the moment we have 3 of the 4 top ten bets winning, with Kruijswijk in 11th ready to step up if DLC fades again maybe.. Or if he has a really good day Saturday, or if someone else slides down he could move up himself.

A terrible day on the bets for us though, Lopez win only was a loser and Kelderman was 9th. The matchbets were blown up by the fact Contador finished one place ahead of Lopez, Contador was inspired again today. Poels to beat Pardilla the only winner of the matchbets. Not good. Let's try to fix that tomorrow with a big-priced winner.  

The Route

After leaving Suances on the coast they head west for the best part of 50kms along the coast before they start to head inland but the road stays pretty flat, bar the occasional little rolling hill, which will sting the legs, but aren't hard enough to be categorised, even as a Cat 3. After the Feed Zone at Cabazon de la Sal after 86kms the road does start to climb gently and that merges in to the first Cat 3 climb after 104.7kms, the Collada de Carmona, which is just 4.8kms long, but averages a tough 7.3%. 

And it's up and down for the rest of the stage with a 'Sharks tooth' profile all the way to the finish. After a 10km descent they then start the second Cat 3 of the day, the Collada de Ozalba, 6kms at 6.5%, then a 6km descent and on to the Collada de la Hoz, a Cat 2 climb this time which is 6.7kms at 5.8%. Then another 10km descent and they turn and head south where the road drags upwards for the next 15kms or so before the final kick up to the finish line. The final climb to Santo Toribia de Liébana is a only a Cat 3 too as it is just 3.2kms at 6.4%, but it's a bit odd really as the first km of the climb is almost flat and the last 2kms actually average 9%, so it's definitely one for the punchier climbers. The last 500m are pretty straight with a final kink in the road about 100m from the line. 

Contenders and Favourites

I've said it above already, I think this is a day for the break, so it's lucky dip time again. The climbs come thick and fast in the last 60kms and you wil need to have kept something in reserve for the last climb to the finish. 

Thomas de Gendt is surely going to be one of those on the move, he went on the attack strangely on stage 13 with other climbers like Villella and de Marchi, and this is much more his sort of stage with rolling climbs and a not-too-difficult finish. He's the first on the shortlist for the break, but I think he could be out-done by better finishers. 

Toms Skujins is another who I like for this stage, I know he he has his eye on this one and has been waiting for the race to move back north as the heat has been killing him down in the south. This is a stage that suits his characteristics quite well and with Cannondale in the state they are in at the moment, I think they will try to get one or two up the road, maybe taking Simon Clarke or Tom Scully with him and he could go well on this finish. He pottered around in the TT on Tuesday, finishing last of all, saving as much energy as possible and will be ready to roll here. 

Trek might send Edward Theuns in the break, it's a sort of stage that he might be able to handle in the right break, and if it came to a dash up that last hill he could have a chance from a sprint. And speaking of dashing up that final hill, and all the hills in between, Julian Alaphilippe will be another who has surely got his eye on this stage, Those Cat 2s and 3s shouldn't be a problem to him and he will fly up that final climb, he's my favourite for this stage.

Or what about Matteo Trentin? He desperately needs to score as many points as possible in the final stages to take the green jersey, Froome is the hot favourite to take it now given the lead he has.. But if Trentin can go in the break and take the intermediate that comes after just one Cat 2 climb, he'll pick up 3pts there, and he might just be able to make it all the way to the finish where he could win the stage as well from a small group sprint. He's worth a tiny win bet at 100/1 I think. 

There's even the possibility that if he doesn't go in the break, that QS chase down the break and try to set Trentin up for the sprint.. But I think with a full bunch of GC men scrapping for the win they might find the finish a bit too hot for him on that sort of gradient, he'll have a better chance from a break. 

Now that Roche is out of the GC running he might be tempted to go, as could Caruso or De Marchi for BMC too, who are now in stage hunting mode with nothing to lose. Movistar are sure to try to send Rojas, Soler or Carapaz in the break, if they can get two in it, with Rojas being one of them, they could drag him to the finish where he'd have a chance of finishing 2nd to 5th again..! 

Bet365 made Rui Costa the 2/1 favourite, and I'm not sure what to make of that. He will probably go missing again and I can't see how you can trust him at such a short price given what we've seen of him so far in this race. 19th is his best result in Andorra, and was 68th today, 90th on Calar Alto etc.. Unless he was specifically saving himself for this stage, then I can't see the attraction in him at just 11/1. 

Alexey Lutsenko has been very quiet since his win early in the race, but maybe he'll be left off the leash to have another go tomorrow. The stage looks perfect for him to power away on that final climb and he could be one with a chance tomorrow I think. and it's his birthday, so definitely want to have something on him.

Or his team-mate Luis Leon Sanchez could give it a go, he tried to get in the break today, but missed it, tried to chase but gave up. The last time that happened to him he got in the break the next day. He's a poor finisher these days though so I'm not backing him. 

Tomasz Marczynski could go for it again, to try to win his third stage of the Vuelta, but he will be watched a bit more closely now. And besides, he's no longer 150/1 but a paltry 25/1 best price and as low as 22/1, and that doesn't really appeal to me. Sander Armee could go instead for Lotto Soudal, he has been on the attack but this is a bit easier than the beast of a stage he attacked on, and he's a healthier price at 80/1. 

Jack Haig had a hard day today, he might take it easy tomorrow, but there are so many others - Enric Mas, Pelle Bilbao, Daniel Navarro, Maxime Monfort.. all could go on the attack... It's really a lottery.. but i'll take a stab at a few below and hopefully we'll get a few in the break. As for the GC men if it comes back together? Well Lopez and Woods look the obvious picks, but I'm willing to wait until in play to see how the break is looking and maybe backing them then. 

Recommendations -

0.3pts each-way on Toms Skujins at 300/1 with Bet365

0.3pts each-way on Sander Armée at 80/1 with 365

1pt win on Julian Alaphilippe at 16/1 with Betfair

0.3pts each-way on Jose Joaquim Rojas at 50/1 with 365

0.2pts win on Matteo Trentin at 100/1 with Skybet

Adding Alexey Lutsenko as it's his birthday today, he's sure to be up for it and the team should support him - 0.5pts each-way at 22/1 with various

Matchbets

Woods to beat Chaves and Roche to beat Costa - 2pts on the double at 1.33/1 with Will Hill

DLC to beat Kruijswijk - 2pts at Evens with 365

de Gendt to beat Marczynski and Lopez to beat Contador - 2pts at 6/4 with 365