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Published on Saturday, 02 September 2017 00:24

Vuelta Stage 15

Alcalá La Real to Sierra Nevada

Sunday 3th Sept, 129.4kms 

The Queen stage.. and what a stage we could be in for today - it is short, but it is nasty, with 3,172m of vertical climbing culminating in the 19km pull to Sierra Nevada that tops out at over 2,500m.

The final climb you could say is really 30kms in length in total from the bottom, as it is a double ascension with barely 2kms of descending between them. This could well be one of the key stages of the race, and a lot of the GC men will be thinking about what happened on the shortest stage of the race last year, stage 15 to Aramon Formigal when Nairo Quintana blew the race up early, finished 2nd to my pick Gianluca Brambilla and put the GC race to bed more or less by taking 2'37" out of Chris Froome. It was a similar profile to this one with a long final climb, but Nairo had done the damage early and kept building on his lead as Sky floundered behind.

And it could well be that this stage is blown up early on too with the tough Alto de Hazallanas that starts with just 58kms gone. It's a double-step climb that gets really tough in the second part with sections hitting up to 22% and the last 7kms averaging 10.4%. It's a day where the break has a chance, but also a day when the GC big guns really will put it up to each other, to test each other over such a short, explosive day.

And that final climb really will test everyone - 19kms at an average of 5.6%, possibly ridden at a relentless pace behind the Sky train, if any GC men are on a bad day they could lose a lot of time today.  

Stage 14 Review

Didn't really get a chance to see much of today's stage, but it looked a cracker, and we were pretty bloody close with Lopez, another kilometre and he'd have probably caught Majka. I hope some of you did back Majka in play as i suggested, I didn't get a chance as I was tied up most of the day. He was superb in the bit that I did see, and did exactly as I thought he would, unfortunately Rafal was on a mission today and he wasn't to be stopped.

Carapaz made a move for a while too but was not strong enough, and at least the big matchbet double came in, along with the Moreno to beat Anton, but with other bets losing we ended up flat on the day. I thought at first when I saw Carapaz on the attack that he had beaten Bilbao, but incredibly he actually finished 2 places behind Bilbao who finished a very impressive 12th. 

The Route

A very short stage at just 129.4kms, but a key stage in this year's Vuelta. Every rider will be fearing the double final ascension of 29kms climbing to the finish on Sierra Nevada Alto Hoya de la Mora. And a lot of riders train on Sierra Nevada so they know what is ahead of them today.

They set out from Alcalá La Real with a pretty easy run for the first 57kms, with nothing major to worry about. It could be a huge scrap to get in to the break again though and it may even be that we get a huge break of 30 or so riders get away early on, that could include Trentin going after the points from the intermediate sprint that comes after 45kms. 

The climbing starts after 57.7kms with the Cat 1 Alto de Hazallanas. It is 16.3kms long, averaging 5.5% over those 16.3kms, but breaking the climb down you'll see it's far tougher than a 5.5% average. The first 9kms are really nothing to worry about, with the ascending part averaging just 3.3%, then a descent for 1.5kms before the final, much tougher part. The first 1,500m average 12% with parts hitting between 19-22%, then there's a little pause for under a kilometre before it kicks up for the last 5.2kms, which average a stinging 10%.

A very fast descent takes them down in to the valley where they loop around and start heading back the direction they came, and start climbing the Alto del Purch after 101kms. The Purche is 8.5kms long at an average of 8%, but the first 6.7kms average closer to 9.4%, before an 800m descent and then the last kilometre kicks up again at 10%. 

They now carry on up the road they came down earlier when descending the Hazallanas and start climbing the final pull to the Alto Hoya de la Mora with 19.3kms to go. The final climb is much steadier than the previous two climbs, averaging 5.6%, with not much of a variation, although the last 1,500m do average closer to 7.3%. There are three switchback turns inside the last 3kms, but it's generally pretty straight so you will be able to see your prey if they are just ahead in the closing stages. 

Contenders and Favourites

This is going to be a brutal stage, coming immediately after what was a very hard stage on Saturday. It's very short, so could be raced at a furious pace, and it may be that we don't see a break go until the first really hilly bit with about 65kms gone. QuickStep might keep it together until the intermediate sprint after 45kms, unless Trentin gets in a break, but it could be chaos from then on.

The climbing starts after 58kms, but really, as the opening 9kms of the Hazellanas climb are nothing to worry about, and even contains about 1,500m of descending, the climbing proper starts after 67km, with just 62kms left in the stage! I think we are all probably hoping for a stage like the Froomigal stage last year when Quintana and Contador went nuts early on and Sky were unable to control or contain them and it ultimately cost Froome the Vuelta. But is it likely we will see that happening to Froome and Sky two years running, especially with the strong team that he has around him.

That was one of the criticisms levelled at Sky last year, that they didn't have a strong enough team to support Froome when things exploded, and they seem to not want to have that problem this year. Moscon and Puccio have been superb, Poels and Nieve have been the 'finishers' for Froome, helping him close gaps when the late attacks come. It might be that Sky will set a blistering pace up that first climb to thin out the group and to put the domestiques of Froome's rivals under enormous pressure. If Sky crest the top of that climb with maybe only Nieve, Poels and one other with Froome, after the rest have given their all, I'm sure they will be ok with that, as you can be sure there won't be many others left in the front of the race to put them under too much pressure.

If Sky do do that on the Hazallanas, then the break probably doesn't have much chance - they won't have got too far away in the short space they had to try and escape, and a strong pace from Sky will keep them within 3-4 minutes gap, which is easily catchable on such a monstrous final climb. The only chance the break has, is if Sky decide to play different tactics and not ride too hard at all.. They might say 'fuck it, come and have a go if you think you're hard enough' to the others - they have to attack Froome after all, they all need to pull minutes back on him before the TT. So if Sky decide to cruise easy up the first climb, the break could build a 6-7 minute lead and that might be enough.

Sky might look at the fight that is going on between the other guys in the top 10, there are seven riders within 66" of each other, just behind Nibali in 2nd place, and they might think that they will all just mark each other out of it rather than trying to attack Froome in some sort of organised fashion. They will all be riding to protect their 3rd, 4th places etc. and might all just chase down each other. So it might be up to the likes of Bahrain Merida, Astana, Trek and Orica to do the work, to try to set their men up for attacks and Froome. 

Today was interesting though, in that Contador and Nibali put Sky under a bit of pressure, but never really got very far ahead, and Froome ultimately caught them, with Contador actually losing 6" at the finish. Zakarin and Kelderman were impressive, Kelderman even trying an attack at one stage, and Chaves tried a dig with Carapaz, but lost quite a bit of time by the end after blowing up. Aru, Kruijswijk, DLC, Woods and Van Garderen were all unable to stay with the pace, but weren't far off. 

So what about tomorrow? Well, I think I'm going to go in again on Lopez - we were unlucky today, I think if he'd have been brave enough he could have gone earlier and maybe caught Majka - there was only 27" in it at the end, he was a minute back with 2kms to go. He was superb today, sprinting away from some of the best climbers in the world again, and if it's a similar position tomorrow with 2kms to go, I think he can do it again. 

Froome looked a bit one-paced today and was just only able to grind it up the hill, will he find extra reserves tomorrow on such a brutal climb, or will he be just clinging on for dear life again? I think the latter, 4th to 7th for him possibly. I think Nibali is capable of another top 3 though, he's looking good. Kelderman might surprise, but the others look to be limited at the moment and might be coming home in 1s and 2s. It could be all about damage limitation for some. 

I think it will be a GC finish, like today there are too many teams who want an interest in the finish and I think Lopez will take it. If he is on a really good day he could even move in to the top 6. Hard to see any value outside of that, Bardet was held again today, Majka put in a huge effort, and the likes of Soler, Carapaz and Zakarin seem a little level below what's needed. The only other guy I want to have a little interest in is Darwin Atapuma, as he didn't make the break today and might have his eye on this one instead. 

One other bet I like the look of tonight though is MAL for the KOM.. he has shot up to 5th from 10th today and is 29pts behind Villella.. I think that he is going to win tomorrow, and it's the Cima Alberta Fernandez remember for the first over the highest finish in the race, so the winner gets 20pts towards the KOM. That would bring him within 9pts of Villella, and I honestly can see him easily outscore Villella by more than 10pts over the course of the rest of this race, as MAL is going to be involved in all the big climb finishes I think. He's 7/2 with several and that's worth a pop to see if we can get back what we lost with Fraile being sick.. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on M A Lopez at 5/2 with Skybet

0.5pts each-way on Vincenzo Nibali at 7/1 with 365

0.5pts each-way on Darwin Atapuma at 18/1 with Will Hill

2pts win on Lopez to win the KOM at 7/2 with Bet365

Matchbets

Poels to beat Kruijswijk and DLC to beat Woods - 2pts at 1.41/1 with Will Hill

Kelderman to beat Zakarin - 3pts at 5/6 with 365

Nibali to beat Froome - 2pts at 5/6