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Published on Monday, 28 August 2017 14:50

Vuelta Stage  10

Caravaca to ElPozo Alimentación

Tuesday 29th August, 164.8kms 

Another similar stage to a lot that we have seen already, a flattish run for 80% of the stage, and then a sting in the tail at the end of it.. This is a relatively short stage at 164.8kms, the day after the rest day, so expect some action. 

Whether that action includes the break staying away to the finish remains to be seen, but it does look like a good day for a breakaway to maybe fight for victory yet again. With the summit finish to over 2,000m the next day, a lot of the GC men and their teams will be looking to preserve energy for that battle. It could be an extremely fast start to this stage and we could see the first hour of the stage covered at over 50kmph as they charge down the hill away from Caravaca. I think we will get a big break of 10+ riders and they could build up a huge lead today over the first 100kms.

I can see Matteo Trentin getting in the break, it would be worth his while to race to the intermediate sprint which comes after 108kms, Froome isn't going to be there, and possibly not Alaphilippe either, so it could be an easy 3 points for him towards the jersey. He still leads by 5pts but there are a bunch of breakaway guys just behind him now, with Chris Froome 19pts behind, but still the 7/4 favourite to take it with all the climbing stages still to come. 

Stage 9 Review

We got a break of 10 guys who eventually got away with about 30kms gone, and it had Marco Soler in it's ranks again, but was generally a pretty weak break. Cannondale kept the pace high at the front as they were hopeful of big things from Michael Woods at the finish, and the break was caught in plenty of time to allow the GC teams to battle it out for the finish.

And it worked out pretty good in the end, with Froome doing exactly as I expected him to, so the one bet won thankfully to land 15pts. Unfortunately we can't catch a big break though and the three matchbets all went down to knock 6pts off the win. Roche did well to finish in 9th, but Kelderman pulled off a massive ride to finish 4th, just behind Woods. De La Cruz beat Nibali by 3 places to bust the first treble and TVG beat Adam Yates by 4 places and Zakarin beat Aru by 5 places to bust the double. It's a shame as it could have been a really good day with a few winning matchbets, but we'll take that to make up most of what we lost on Saturday's disaster stage.   

Impressive stuff out of Froome though and he now is just 1/6 to win the Vuelta after just one week. He was just so strong again Sunday, powering to the front, getting a gap, looking like he might be fading like last time when Dumoulin caught and passed him when Chaves came up to his wheel, but he kicked again and Chaves had no answer. And this time Contador had no answer either, he slipped back to 6th, losing 12" to Froome. 

Those of you who joined me in backing him at evens with a nervous disposition could consider cashing out, and enjoy the next two weeks! De La Cruz is still in the hunt I think, he's only 25" off of 3rd place and I think he'll go better on the longer climbs to come, and has a very good time trial. So all is not lost there yet at all. 

So the GC sees Froome lead from Chaves, no surprise there really, but Roche sitting in 3rd was a big surprise for me, I didn't see that coming.. but he's been very strong and very consistent, only losing a few seconds here and there to Froome and not blowing up yet. I can't see him staying on a podium spot, but a top 10 should be well within his reach now.

Nibali is stalking - and I think he could well have a big say yet in this race. He has been under the radar a lot, but still sits in 4th, just 12" off of Roche's 3rd spot and 1'17" off of Froome. He has said this week that 'My watts have never been higher" but that the speed is incredible - they hit the final climbs going flat out and it just gets faster. He is not suited by the wall-type finishes they've been hitting so far, we could see a far different Nibs when we hit the longer climbs in the next two weeks. 

Van Garderen is still right up there in 5th, but I'll be honest, I can't see him keep this up, I think he'll slide down. Kelderman, Aru, Zakarin, Lopez and Yates are all still close but need to pull something special out of the bag to get in to this race. Zakarin and Aru are two to keep an eye on though, they could come more and more in to this race as it goes on. 

Kruijswijk, Lopez and Poels have work to do to get in to the top 10, but they are not a million miles off sitting in 18, 16 and 14th place. Fraile has been sick, but is still just 9/1 to take the KOM depsite not having a single point, down to the fact that there's a hell of a lot of climbing, and points, still up for grabs. Geniez has disappeared, maybe we'll see him back on the attack on the proper mountains, not these short, steep kickers. Froome is odds on for the points competition now, so I'm glad we covered that one, Trentin is still in the hunt for us at 18/1 though, let's hope he picks up points here and there to stay away from the breakaway guys who are amassing points.. 

The Route

A u-shaped loop that takes them from Caravaca south-east descending more or less for 100kms, reaching the southern-most point at Lorca after 51kms, where they turn left and start heading back north-east. After 78kms, at Totana, they start on the finishing circuit which is a sort of figure of eight that takes them almost up to the finish line, but they turn sharply right just as they enter ElPozo and head out on a route east and north of the town. They then pass through the finish line from the north, where the intermediate sprint point is passed with 54kms gone and they head back down the same road they had come up from Totana some 50kms earlier. 

This time when they pass Totana they turn north east and start climbing just 4kms later as they start on the double ascent they face over the next 18kms. First up is the Alto del Morrón de Totana which is a Cat 3 climb that starts with 125kms gone and is 5.7kms at 5.8%. Even though the road continues to rise there is a brief section of 4.7kms which is between the two categorised parts that isn't considered to be part of either categorised climbs.

The Cat 1 Collado Bermejo starts with 135.3kms gone and is 7.7kms at 6.56%, topping out with just under 22kms to go, of which 20kms are a very fast, but not overly dangerous descent, averaging around -5%, we should see some ridiculously fast speeds coming down towards the finish if the stage is up for grabs. 

The road levels out a little bit with 2kms to go as they enter ElPozo, and the last kilometre is almost dead flat and straight as they approach the finish line from the opposite direction to which they passed it first time around. 

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Contenders and Favourites

I think the break wins today, so mainly focusing on trying to pick a handful of guys who could get in the break, with the intention of reviewing it once we get an idea of who's in the break and whether they will make it or not. The reasons I'm mainly looking at breakaway candidates are as follows: Breaks are getting lots of leeway once again in this race. Sky have kept tempo but are reluctant to push too hard, they've not been too bothered about stage wins, just controlling it enough to keep rivals out of red when someone got close to it like Oliveira and Bol. 

I thought it would be different on Sunday with Froome's unfinished business on Cumbre del Sol, and so it was to be, but it was also thanks to Cannondale keeping the break within reach for much of the stage. Now that Froome has his stage win and a healthy lead, Sky should revert even more to riding tempo and saving energy for the efforts that lie ahead. 

Secondly, it's the day after rest day, some will be lazy and not feeling great, others will be bursting to get up the road and do something. Also, there is a tough finish the next day that goes over two Cat 1 climbs in the last 50kms, climbing to over 2,100m at the finish in Calar Alto. So with all that in mind, you can see why I've plucked for some breakaway lottery picks tomorrow. But there are just so many to pick from.... it's not easy, bit of a dart-throwing exercise! 

Thomas de Gendt will go, but I don't think he can win over this climb, he'll find some climbers too strong for him. Omar Fraile might finally find his climbing legs, maybe he has been waiting for the rest day to fully recover and go hard at this one for the Cat 1 (and 3) points tomorrow. He said on Friday "I had a difficult night but I hope I can improve over the next days and be ready for the last week".. he was also riding at the front of the peloton on Sunday and DDD said that he's already starting to feel better.. So we'll see, maybe he's worth a shot at 28/1 with Will Hill.

I think Quickstep could get 2-3 guys in the break, Matteo Trentin should go for the points but they are also likely to put Julian Alaphilippe in the break as he seems to be in such good form and he promised after winning on Saturday that he is not finished.. He is the 13/2 favourite for the stage, the bookies clearly fear him, the question is can he get over the Caja Bermejo with the leaders? Well, it's a 6.6% average gradient, with sections hitting only around 8.5% max, so he should be ok.

He did extremely well to match Majka's surges on Saturday, but they were on short, steep slopes, which he is perfectly suited to, this is a lot longer and someone riding a very hard steady pace might put him under pressure. But overall, I think he is strong enough at the moment to hang in there, he could have Trentin to help him and he may even have the help of someone like Enric Mas along the way too. He will be very difficult to beat in the finale if it comes to a reduced sprint. 

Luis Leon Sanchez is another who should like this stage and should be very comfortable on this climb, it's getting in the break itself could be the issue for him - he missed the break on stage 6, the day he was backed down to something like 12/1, but was towed up by his team-mate Lutsenko to bridge the gap. Once he got there he was ok, and was actually looking pretty good, but made the school-boy error of letting the Mas group go up the road and eventually finished a frustrating 4th. I think he will be looking to make up for that error, the legs are good and the stage finish suits him very well. I am having a little interest in him too. 

It would probably mean Lutsenko probably won't go this time, or at least might go and work for Sanchez, but sacrifice his chances. Rui Costa and Gio Visconti are two old dogs who might fancy a stage like this too, but I tihnk they might prefer to ease themselves back in to it tomorrow and go for one later in the race. Jose Joaquim Rojas was in the Sanchez/Mas break on stage 6 too, and would have been one of the big dangers if it came to a sprint, but he too got caught out with Sanchez, not being willing to chase when the break went. He could try again, and if he can get over that climb, which he should be able to, he could well win the sprint. 

Jan Polanc, Pawel Poljanski, Matej Mohoric - they've all shown they have good legs and an attacking mindset, they are possibles too for the break, as is Marc Soler who has been very active for Movistar. Alessandro de Marchi, Damiano Caruso and Richard Carapaz are three who could be involved, but would need to crest the climb solo I think to win on this finish, and I don't know if they'll be able to do that. Darwin Atapuma and Davide Villela might be drawn out to try for the KOM points too, but I don't think either of them are going to solo to victory. 

At bigger odds, Bart de Clercq and Luis Angel Mate at 200/1, Sander Armee at 250/1 (Lotto have said that he's going to keep trying) and Pelle Bilbao at 100/1 are others that I'm going to have a small few quid on, Bilbao finished just 27th on Cumbre del Sol, he's going ok and could be a foil for Sanchez, or indeed Sanchez attacks and Bilbao saves the legs for the sprint..

But overall, I think this is another great chance for Alaphilippe, but Luis Leon and a few other longer shots are going to keep me interested hopefully for tomorrow. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Julian Alaphilippe at 13/2 with various

0.75pts each-way on Luis Leon at 7/1 with Ladbrokes

0.25pts each-way on JJ Rojas at 40/1 with Ladbrokes

0.25pts each-way on Omar Fraile at 28/1 with Will Hill 

0.25pts each-way on Pelle Bilbao at 100/1 with various

0.1pts each-way on Bart de Clercq at 200/1 with 365

0.1pts each-way on Luis Angel Mate at 200/1 with 365

0.1pts each-way on Sander Armee at 250/1 with 365

Matchbets

Luis Leon to beat Jungels and Polanc to beat Atapuma - 3pts on the double at 5/4 with Will Hill