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Published on Tuesday, 23 August 2016 21:54

Vuelta Stage 5

Viveiro to Lugo

Wed. 24th August, 171.3kms

The race heads back inland, away from the coast with a relatively flat run of 171kms from Viveiro to Lugo. The flat run is interrupted though by the long, but easy climb of the Marco de Álvare which comes with 60kms to go. 

It looks like a stage that should end in a sprint again, but with the tendency for stages of the Vuelta to be won by breakaways, there's no certainty that it will end in a sprint.. With five kilometres to go the road rises up for 3kms at around 3%, then flattens for a kilometre before an uphil pull to the line for the last kilometre. Will we see Meersman and Etixx bossing it again or will the others get closer this time?

A blank today, in what I feared might happen - another stage which Movistar blew because they couldn't care about stages. Valverde would have won that stage had there been any sort of concerted effort from behind, but no one wanted to chase.. Not Movistar, who seemed happy to let the red jersey slip away, in fact so much so that they put Fernandez to work for a while and when done he tailed off and out of the jersey. Annoying for our matchbet treble, as the other two won. And what was even more annoying was I had picked out Calmejane this morning for tomorrow's stage, not today's of course..

Nothing to take out of today's stage really from a GC point of view, other than that Contador looked a little better and Cannondale are looking strong, Talansky finished with the main GC men again today, it's a pity he lost so much time in the TTT as he'd be right in the mix. Atapuma taking the Red jersey is not not good news for our KOM bets though, he may try defending it for a while and as a result will not be going in any breaks. But it does mean that we may at least get a team that's willing to chase to defend that jersey for a while, And if he does crack some day and lose it, it will be interesting to see if he decides to ride hard and defend a top 6/10 placing or lose lots of time so that he can go on the attack again.. 

The Route

After starting in Viveiro and running along the coast for a little bit they predominantly head south for the rest of the day, heading inland towards Lugo. It's pretty flat for around the first 100kms, and after 98kms they pass through the intermediate sprint, just at the bottom of the only climb of the day. From the intermediate sprint at the bottom of the hill to the KOM line it's actually nearly 19kms, but the categorised part of the climb is just 11.8kms. The average given for the climb is just 3.6% but that is inacurrate as to the difficulty, as the last 4kms or so are almost flat. 

Once over the top though the last 50kms are more or less flat, but rolling along the ridge that they climbed up to. There is a slight rise up with 5kms or so to go for 3kms at 3%, but it's likely we will see most, if not all of the sprinters make it over to contest the second sprint finish of the race. It is an uphill sprint though so it will favour some sprinters more than others.   

Contenders and Favourites

This again could be a day for the break, almost to a point where I'm thinking it could be a 'no bet' day as I start writing this.. It is another typical sort of stage that could see the GC teams just let the break go, there's no great incentive to chase them down and they will be thinking of the days to come with all the summit finishes, including the Cavadonga..

Picking the winner from breakaway candidates is a total lottery as we saw again today.. I'll try scattering a few names around of likely lads, but only because they are such big prices, they're worth a shot. You don't really need to be a big climber to go well on this stage, the climb is easy and can be ridden fast by strong rouleur types. One thing to bear in mind though is the location of the sprint point - it comes after 100kms, and may interest the likes of Gilbert to go for the break if he really is serious about trying for the jersey.. But he may just save himself for the finish, the uphill pull for the last 5kms or so may just suit him a little bit. 

I'm thinking it may suit the likes of Jerome Cousin again, he was on the attack on Monday but struggled on the climbs, this is more suited to him. I also had Lillian Calmejane pencilled in for this stage this morning when writing the start of this preview on the way to work, but now that he's had a hard day that's unlikely! Or how about someone like Florian Senechal if he's up for it, it's a wavy, lumpy course, not too dissimilar to a day in Flanders, and he's a massive price at 200/1.

Same goes for Smukulis, he tried Monday, this could be more his style. I'm tempted to go for an Orica BikeExchange rider, so the pressure is off to chase, but I'm torn between whether they want to do that or save everyone's energy for what lies ahead. I don't think there is any pressure on them to chase anyway, Chaves can sit in and let Movistar, BMC and Sky dictate things. But guys like Damien Howson, Jens Keukeleire or even Simon Gerrans might fancy it.. 

Jean Pierre Drucker showed in the Ride London that he isn't afraid to attack from long and he's a seriously powerful rider - maybe he'll give it a go from the break rather than waiting for the sprint finish, when he would be outsprinted by a few of these I think. His price is way too short at 16s though as they are pricing him for the sprint. 

As for the sprint, well I called it spot on with Etixx and Meersman in stage 2, they were just too powerful, more experienced, more clever and aggressive when they needed to be to hold their line and their wheels. They held off just behind the leadouts of Bora, Trek etc and stayed out of trouble, then cool-ly and calmly sept to the front with Yves Lampaert and the power of Stybar in the last kilometre. Meersman did the rest and that will have done his confidence a power of good, his first Grand Tour win. What wasn't visible on the road book, but clear from the TV footage was that it was a slightly uphill finish on Sunday - this stage has an uphill finish too, and I think it's perfect for him again. He's half the price he was for the stage 2 though at 4/1, but I think he's still worth backing..   

Nicola Bonifazio was bumped around a lot in the last sprint and Trek lost momentum in the crash - will he be able to go better this time? It is a tricky finish and it could get quite hectic in the closing kilometres, so he'll have to have his wits about him again, Stybar and Lampaert take no prisoners.. But he would be one of the fastest finishers here with a better run.

Magnus Cort Nielsen came close last time and is the lead sprinter for OBE it seems, but could we see Gerrans maybe given a shot on tomorrow's finish? It's more likely he'll be leadout for Nielsen, but I'm not convinced Nielsen can raise his game any further.

Michael Schwarzmann seems to be under-rated a little still by Bet365, he's 18/1 there but only 11/1 with others. He came very fast on Sunday to reward the team for all their hard work in the closing kilometres.. Can he go one better and land the win? It'll be a big ask I think. Nik Arndt is a very short price I think at around 7/1, but at least he's not the crazy 4/1 he was for the first stage. He got held up by the crash of Lagutin on Sunday and couldn't get a blow in, but can he do better this time? Well an interesting thing I spotted tonight was Koen de Kort saying that he thinks tomorrow will suit his leadout capabilities better and he hopes 'to show something'.. at first I thought he meant that he was going to be sprinting instead of Arndt maybe, but after he said that it suited his leadout capabilities..

Kristian Sbaragli, Jonas VanGenechten and Tosh Van der Sande will all be fighting for the 5th to 10th sort of places but won't be troubling the podium i think. Gilbert could get involved from the break, a late attack, or if he gets lucky in the sprint, but I hope he won't win!

I think it's there for Etixx's taking once more and Meersman should be capable of a big showing again. Etixx are looking very strong, they were prominent at the front again on the final climb with Stybar, Brambilla and De La Cruz all prominent.. They should take the lead coming in to the last 2kms I think again and will power to the front up the final drag to the line to release Meersman again. Bonfazio can come closer this time I think and the 8/1 with Paddy Power is ok for an each-way bet. There is the danger of course the break makes it again, but I think that Trek, BMC, Etixx and OBE will work to set up a sprint, probably helped by Bora and Giant too.. There aren't many sprint opportunities, they need to take them when they can.   

Recommendations:

2pts win on Gianni Meersman at 4/1 with various.

0.5pts each-way on Nicola Bonifazio at 8/1 with Paddy Power

Matchbets

Meersman to beat Cort Nielsen - 3pts at 4/6 with Bet365