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Published on Wednesday, 07 September 2016 21:07

Vuelta Stage 18

Requena to Gandía

Thurs 8th Sept, 191kms 

The organisers have described this as a flat stage, I think the riders might have a thing or two to say about that at the end of the day! The stage rolls along over many little hills all day, including a tough Cat 2 climb 70kms in.

The stage goes between the Valencian localities of Requena and Gandia with a rugged first part that takes them over the Puerto de Casa del Alto, but once over the top they descend gradually all the way to the finish in Ganda, rolling over a number of bumps and hills.

There is one last little bump to get over with 4kms to go, but the last 2kms are dead flat, and as this is the second last chance for the remaining sprinters in the race, it's more than likely to come down to a bunch gallop in Gandia.

Close, so close with Gesink - for most of the day I was convinced he'd win, I certainly didn't think Frank would win as they hit the final climb.. he was still available to back at 9/1 on Betfair as they were on the final climb. In the end Konig came past Gesink, but he held on to land the each-way money at 33/1 to cover all the other stage bets. As for Valverde losing a matchbet to Moreno by one place again, I think they must be plotting it and backing it or something, very, very annoying for him to bust the matchbet treble. Meintjes was crap again today, Silin easily beat him. I'm forgetting about Meintjes for the rest of this race. 

The Route

After a rolling start to the stage as they head south, they meet the only categorised climb of the day after 56.5kms, the Cat 2 Puerto de la Casa Del Alto (13kms at 3.9%). They spend the best part of the next 90kms descending as they head back towards the coast, punctuated every now and then with uphill stretches.

The intermediate sprint at Ontinyent comes with 53kms to go, so it's likely that the break will take the points. They continue to head to the coast, go over a littel bump with 4kms to go, but the last 2kms are perfectly flat and will be a fast and furious lead in to the sprint finish. 

Contenders and Favourites

The stage has 'break' written all over it again, but with this being only the second last chance for the sprinters, then we might see a similar situation to stage 15 when the peloton never gave the break much leeway and they were always going to be caught a long way before the finish. 

I say break because of the terrain though - some of the climber types who like the medium mountains rather than the really big ones will like today's profile and might see it as one of the few remaining chances to take a stage win. Guys like Jan Bakelants, who has been riding, and climbing, really well in this race so far, getting in many breaks and holding in on some of the climbs with some of the best climbers. This stage looks perfect for him with the rolling terrain and the opportunity to attack and solo to the finish late in the race. He has had an 11th and two 7th places so far and sits in an excellent 20th spot in the GC, not bad for a 'non-climbing' Belgian! 

I picked Thomas de Gendt for stage 17, I was going to pick him for today's stage, but glad I didn't as he missed a break of 28 riders again, I'm giving up on him too. (watch him win tomorrow...)  Lotto could instead try sending Jelle Wallays who was in the break in stage 13 and if it comes to a break sprint he'd have a good chance.  

Katusha are sure to have a man in the break and I think this could be one for Tiago Machado, who has looked lively and active at times in this race, but has nothing to show for it so far. Given the profile, this could be an opportunity for him, but he would need to try to solo away on the hill that comes with 30kms to go though I think as he won't win sprints against too many. It was good to see him try his luck today right at the start, as although the move failed it showed that he is still up for trying to get away. 

This could also be a day for Dries Devenyns, who was unlucky to lose out to De La Cruz on stage 8 after a very strong ride that day. He's been hiding away since and has had several days off since with the way stages have been ridden. This stage has almost a Belgian hills type feel to it and he might try his luck again.

And speaking of Belgian Hills, Yves Lampaert was on the attack on stage 13 and took a fine 6th place, but he has been riding really well and maybe deserves another shot at the break for all the work he's done for the team. If he doesn't fancy it, maybe Etixx might let Zdenek Stybar or even Gianni Meersman in the break, he was easily outsprinted by three riders on the flat sprint of stage 16, maybe they will look to change tactics and get him in the break so he can win a reduced sprint at the end of it. He should be able to cope with the hills on this course, he's been climbing really well, he stayed with the GC group for a long time on the stage to the Aubisque.. So he's a double chance on this stage too I think. 

Other possibles for the break? Maybe Fraile and Elissonde again as there is a Cat 2 with 10pts on offer, that battle is incredibly close still, only 3pts now as Fraile took the early Cat 2 today.. If he takes it tomorrow again from Elissonde he narrows the gap to just 1pt, if Elissonde isn't there, he takes the lead. Neither will win the stage though, it might just be a 70km race for them.

Like Meersman, Jempy Drucker could also try to get in the break, or could also win the sprint if it's a sprint, or Danilo Wyss who was also in the break on stage 13 could try his luck. Loads more candidates of course, lots of teams are still hunting a stage win, and there's no guarantee that it will make it either, it's a long stage to be up the road and it's all downhill for about the last 80kms, so  the peloton have a good chance of catching them and setting up a sprint. It could also finally be a day for Terpstra, Keukeleire or Simon Gerrans, but I'm not backing any of them.

Kristian Sbaragli was in the break today, he might be tired tomorrow, so he's worth taking on in the h2hs vs Van Genechten. Felline might not be ready to sprint again, Kiel Reijnen hinted yesterday that he might get another chance to sprint, he's 80/1 and Felline is 16/1, I'd rather be on Reijnen, he managed 8th on Monday. Manzin Vs Felline in a h2h looks worth trying again too.  

But who takes the sprint? I think the sprint in stage 16 was inconclusive to be honest, it was a mess and too many riders were all over the place in the last kilometre. Daniele Bennati totally messed things up with his attack, there was panic behind and teams blew up trying to pull him back and as a result with 500m to go, Meersman, the only man with a leadout man was released on his own, way too far out. It was every man for himself from then on and Meersman panicked and tried to start his sprint with over 400m to go. And in the melee that followed, Meersman and Arndt, the two pre-race favourites were beaten by 16/1 shot Drucker and 400/1 shot Selig. 

I don't know if it gave us any real clues as to who is sprinting the best, but it was clear that Drucker has found some form and speed as he easily outpaced the rest of them, but he's too short now at 5/1 or so. I think given a different leadout Meersman can do better, but that could also be said for Arndt! Meersman gives us two shots at the stage though I feel so he's worth a bet I think. I'm having one point at the current price and might have another point in play if it looks likes the break will get caught and Etixx look like they are up for it.

Recommendations -

0.5pts each-way on Jan Bakelants at 50/1 with Ladbrokes

0.3pts win on Jelle Wallays at 150/1 with PP

0.4pts win on Tiago Machado at 80/1 with PP

0.3pts each-way on Yves Lampaert at 80/1 with Ladbrokes

1pt win on Gianni Meersman at 9/2 with Ladbrokes

Matchbets

Bennati to beat Felline - 2pts at 5/6 with Bet365

Bennati to beat Felline, Drucker to beat Selig and Manzin to beat Van der Sande - 2pts at 3/1 with Bet365