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Published on Saturday, 03 September 2016 22:24

Vuelta Stage 15

Sabiñánigo to Aramón Formigal

Sunday 6th Sept, 118.5kms 

The shortest stage of the race at just 118.5kms, but yet another summit finish on what could be a tricky day, coming hot on the heels of the Aubisque. The time limit could be one to watch today as the stage could be extremely fast. 

This is no longer than many club riders' Sunday morning spin, but the speed of this stage will definitely not be anything like a club run. I expect this to be an explosive stage right from the off, I'm really hoping they will show this one from the start to finish, as it could be a brilliant stage to watch.

After only 30kms they will already be on the first climb of the day and there will have been attacks left, right and centre, and maybe not just from the break-away hopefuls but the GC men might be looking to get in on the action early on too. With the final climb starting with just 90kms in the legs there will be lots of guys who will have designs on stage glory in a Sunday afternoon TV treat.

A crazy start to today's stage with action right from the gun and Omar Fraile certainly didn't hide his intentions, almost sitting on the bonnet of the Commissaire's car he was so far forward in the peloton in the neutral zone. He kick-started things though and soon there was a break of no fewer than 41 riders, including Geniez, Elissonde and Fraile of my picks. They built up a lead of over 6 minutes, and Fraile took max points on the first two Cat 1 climbs of the day to take the jersey. He paid for those efforts later on though and was dropped before the top of the Marie Blanque.

Yate and Orica almost pulled off a master stroke with Haig attacking and then Yates coming across, before leaving him and bridging to Gerrans and Cort Nielsen from the break and doing a 3-man TTT to try to catch the leaders. What a finish we were treated to though with battles going on all over the road - Elissonde came very close to winning it for us at 20/1, I hope some of you backed him each-way at 20/1 and got paid out. Gesink was just too strong at the finish - I managed to back him at 7.2 on Betfair with about 50kms to go as I saw him as the big danger, and also laid 2pts on Elissonde at 2.0 with 2kms to go. 

What a ride by Talansky today too though, attacking away from Froome and Quintana and doing what none of the others could do - take 33" out of them by the finish to leap in to 8th place in the GC.. we may still land that top 10 bet, and if he keeps improving he may even move on to the podium with the TT to come. Chaves and Yates did brilliantly also to move in to 3rd and 4th respectively on the GC, with Konig also attacking away in the closing kilometres to take time also. 

Losers on the day were Contador and Valverde, particularly Valverde who lost over 9 minutes to Quintana and slid right down the GC to 19th place. Omar Fraile almost did enough to take the KOM jersey, but Elissonde has now taken it over instead. Talansky's matchbet at 11/8 and the double won, but it was a loss of about 5points on the bets as they stood. Good news was the abandonment of Gilbert to land the 'not to win a stage bet', that was settled by Bet365 today to put us almost flat on the day. 

The Route

The stage starts with a little loop of 24kms north of Sabinanigo, the departure town and almost reaches the intermediate sprint location at Biescas before turning back south, going through the finish line and starts on its circular loop east of the city. The horse-shoe-shaped loop is 65kms long and takes in the first two climbs of the day. The Cat 3 Alto de Petralba comes after 35kms and is 6.3kms at 5%, and 20kms later they hit the Cat 2 Alto de Cotefablo (12.4kms at 4.4%) but which comes in two waves and a flattish section in the middle, so the actually climbing parts average something closer to 6%. 

They descend for 20kms to the intermediate sprint spot at Biesca, where they turn right and start heading north and start climbing straight away. From Biesca to the finish is 28.5kms, running alongside a number of the lakes. The actual categorised part of this Cat 1 climb though is 14.5kms at an average of 4.7%. It's a very irregular climb though, rising and falling in gradient constantly all the way up, with parts hitting 10% and other parts actually flat to descending. The final 3.5kms though are much steadier, averaging 7.1%. 

This could be a wildly explosive stage, the short stages always lend themselves to fast, aggressive racing and this should be no different. We could see the GC mens teams looking to break things apart early on and get men up the road to assist with late attacks, Or we could see the break of the day possibly make it all the way if there are no threats.

Contenders and Favourites

The first thing to remember about this stage is just how hard a day the whole peloton had today. 41 riders in a break all had to work extremely hard, so a lot of your break candidates will not be able to go on the attack for a second day in a row. The GC men had a hard day, especially the Sky riders, with Movistar also contributing to the effort in the last 15kms on the Aubisque. The stragglers and the grupetto also had to work really hard on a stage close to 200kms in warm temperatures over four massive climbs. 

It will be hard for the break I think to make it today, there are not many break candidates left with any energy after yesterday's effort, and such a short stage will mean that the GC teams should be able to keep the gap tight to keep it together going on to the final climb. It's still all to play for in the top 10, there's only 37" between 3rd, 4th and 5th in the fight for the podium.

Quintana has to keep attacking, he tried today but the attacks were never strong enough, he was only getting 20-30 metres and made it too easy for Froome to keep coming back at him. Froome looked strong and covered everything really well but it was also interesting to see that Konig rode off and left him, he must have been feeling that good he just let him go in pursuit or Chaves and Yates for a possible podium spot.

The bookies can't work out what's going to happen in this one, it's wide open in the betting with Quintana and Froome the 9/1 favourites with Bet365 and Brambilla, Valverde, Chaves and Yates all under 20/1.

The break has a slim chance of making it again today though with some riders who missed out today maybe looking to get in the break today - Thomas de Gendt is very short again, I'm guessing as some are thinking as he missed today he will try tomorrow. But as I said yesterday, he doesn't seem to be going well and he was also right at the back today at the start, he had no interest in getting in the break. He did ride ok though it seems as he finished in 50th, not far behind some of the break of the day. 

I think it will be very hard to pick the break candidates but maybe someone like Gianluca Brambilla has a double chance today - he can maybe get in the break of the day and could win a reduced sprint, or he could hang in there on an easier climb like this finish and can attack late or sprint to victory. At 14/1 he's no great value but I'd like to keep him onside as he is still seemingly going well, he didn't push himself too hard today but finished with Meersman 18 minutes down. 

Another I'd like to keep onside is Esteban Chaves - he attacked away strongly today and took 33" from Froome/Quintana. This is the sort of finish I think he'll like too and I think he will continue to try to chip away at the time to try to put more distance between him and Yates, or more importantly between him and Konig in 5th. The 22/1 with PP is ok. 

Can Valverde bounce back from his 'jour sans' today? He cracked badly near the end of the stage and lost a stack of time to slip down to 19th. He always has a bad day in the mountains, can he bounce back tomorrow on a finish that should suit him and his sprint finish? I'm not so sure.. Darwin Atapuma finished with Valverde today, he was right in there for a long time but struggled from once Froome and Quintana went in to overdrive. He could get in the break of the day tomorrow, he's far enough down now, or he could attack late from the main group if he's still with them. 

His team-mate Sammy Sanchez rode as well as I've seen him ride in quite a long time today, repeatedly attacking and almost finished with Quintana, just losing 3" in the end. He seems full of energy and ambition and is only 31" off a top 6 finish. The 33/1 with Paddy Power might be worth a small bet on. 

Robert Gesink is clearly very strong at the moment, but will he be too tired after such a hard stage today? I can't see Contador leaving any of the top guys either, he has been very disappointing. Ben Hermans rode brilliantly today to finish 20th, he might still have the strength to go on the attack tomorrow. And with the way he attacked away today, Andrew Talansky could also be one of the stronger riders at the finish tomorrow and might try something.. he might be able to follow Quintana and Froome and land a podium at a big looking 66/1. 

Really hard to know how this stage will go, hot on the heels of such a brutally hard day today. No one was spared todayand they all suffered. It is a short stage though and it will be explosive right from the start - before they know it they will be on the Cat 2 and will have only 40kms left to go. The final climb is long, but it's not too tough - but it is irregular and is hard to keep a steady rhythm on. So I think it suits the likes of Brambilla and Chaves, with a few other possibilities thrown in as well. Of course we could see the same as today and Froome and Quintana duking it out again, but I'm reluctant to back them in case it becomes like today where they ignore the likes of Konig, Chaves and Talansky flying off the front while they're obsessed with each other.. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Esteban Chaves at 22/1 with Paddy Power

0.75pts each-way on Gianluca Brambilla at 13/1 with William Hill

0.25pts each-way on Andrew Talansky at 66/1 with Bet365

 0.25pts each-way on Samuel Sanchez at 33/1 with Paddy Power

Matchbets

Samu Sanchez to beat Contador - 2pts at evens with Bet365

Zeits to beat Zoidl and Brambilla to beat Mamykin - 2pts at 11/8 with Bet365

Add Valverde to beat Moreno to the above double to make a treble - 2pts at 2.39/1 with Bet365