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Published on Thursday, 01 September 2016 22:03

Vuelta Stage 13

Bilbao to Dantxarinea 

Friday 2nd Sept, 213.4kms 

The longest stage of the 2016 Vuelta, but not exactly a marathon in the mould of Milan San Remo or Lombardia, at only 213kms. The route takes them between Bilbao and the small Navarran locality of Urdax.

As they head east they pass along the coast for about 60kms and through San Sebastian, and climb over four little Cat 3 bumps along the way, dipping in to France twice before finishing back in Spain in Urdax. The last 5kms are downhill until the last 500m where it rises gently to the line. 

It has all the hallmarks of a break-away stage again, but with so little sprint opportunties left in the race, we might see the sprinters teams, or teams of late attack candidates try to reel them in.. I can't see Tinkoff, Movistar or Sky chasing hard though. 

I didn't see any of today's stage as I was out and about, but I see we had a 3rd with Felline... I saw a clip of the finish and I must say I was less than impressed with his positioning and his sprint.. He got boxed in on the inside, and although he seemed to have plenty of speed at the finish he seemed to make no effort to get out and had to settle for 3rd. At least he won his matchbet with Valverde who finished 9th, that was a tasty 11/8.. Unfortunately Brambilla decided to go in the break of the day, so blew any chance he had of beating LL Sanchez at the finish. 

But Jens Keukeleire eh? I've picked him so many times over the year in all sorts of races, and he goes and wins a sprint on a day that he wasn't even quoted by a single bookie, although that's not really a surprise as they all just copy and paste what Bet365 do... so if 365 didn't have him, none of them will have him.. And even more annoying was I heard afterwards that he had a baby four weeks ago and the wife and baby were at the finish today. That sort of info is my sort of gold info, if I'd have known that beforehand he'd have definitely been on my list... 

And what about Pello Bilbao?  A fantastic 6th in the sprint, close but no cigar with a big priced outsider. I'll give him another go tomorrow as the route passes near Guernica on the way out of Bilbao. 

The Route

Nine prominent lumps and bumps along the way from Bilbao to Urdax-Dantxarinea, four of which are Cat 3 climbs. They head east almost all day, hitting the coast at Deba after 60kms. They then spend 60kms or so along the coast, where they might experience some coastal winds, passing over the Cat 3 Alto Monte Iguoldo just before the intermediate sprint at San Sebastian. 

Shortly after that they head inland and take on the next three Cat 3 climbs in quick succession, in the space of about 40kms. The fourth climb comes just before they enter a final circuit of 40kms, and they enter France as they go over the top . The circuit takes them through the finish line in Dantxarinea and they briefly dip back in to Spain and then back in to France but come back in to Spain for the lumpy finish to the stage at Urdax. 

There are two small lumps to get over in the last 22kms, but then they descend for 3.5kms to Dantxarinea, before a final little hill up to the line for the last 500m.

Contenders and Favourites

Straight in to it - let's give Bilbao another go tomorrow.. He rode really well today to take 6th, it passes near Guernica on the way to the finish, let's give him another shot. He's 40/1 again, worth a small bet as he could get in the break of the day, which has a chance, or he could try sprinting again, he didn't do too badly today. 

Fabio Felline also would have to have a big chance again tomorrow on a lumpy finish like this, the uphill sprint will be in his favour too. I think he won't let himself be boxed in again like he was today and Trek should be doing all they can to ensure he is in a good position hitting the last 500m. No great prices around again though, but the 15/1 with Bet365 is worth a go again, a place pays out evens on our stake. 

I think it probably will come down to a bunch finish again though, that's why I'm giving Felline another shot. I think the break will be kept on a leash and the last three Cat 3s in quick succession will knock several minutes off their lead as they start to tire and the run-in is conducive to a good chase-down I think. Philippe Gilbert is again a short price, as it looks maybe on paper to the bookies at least like he has a chance on this stage.. I don't agree, can't see him anywhere near the win again, he finished 19 minutes down today.. 

Gianni Meersman must have a big chance again today though - it looked like the whole Etixx team bar De La Cruz and Bouet (who took an incredible 2nd place, and was furious with it!) took the day off today, like as if they were plotting something for tomorrow.. Now is it Meersman, or maybe Stybar? Lampaerts, Velits, Serry - they all rolled in way down today, if they can get most of them over the Cat 3s, which they should, then they could have a seriously strong leadout for Meersman again. Stybar could try a late attack, or cover late attacks on the lumpy finish, but Meersman has shown himself to be strongest in the sprints so far. 

Kristian Sbaragli backers will have been cursing today as he was unlucky in 4th, but it might be a sign that he is getting stronger as the race goes on, and maybe Meersman might be getting tired or a little complacent now he has two stages under his belt.. The 22/1 on him might offer some value given how close he came today. Luis Leon continues to be silly prices, he won't be winning tomorrow, and Nik Arndt hasn't shown me anything to want to back him either. 

Tosh Van der Sande was one I was thinking about for today too, but he did tweet earlier tonight that he didn't have a great day today and that Thomas De Gendt had been his 'Personal scooter' so that has put me off him. i can't see lightning striking twice with Keukeleire either.

The other possibility is that we get late attacks on the closing circuit, it's got the look of a Flanders classic about the closing circuit with the punchy little hills and the uphill sprint finish. That could bring a lot of other possibles in to the equation like Niki Terpstra, Simon Gerrans (although he has been completely anonymous this race), Dries Devenyns, Ben Hermans, Dylan Teuns and Jempy Drucker. Of that lot, Terpstra might be asked to look after Meersman, and Devenyns has been lively and unlucky not to take a stage win, coming up against De La Cruz (and possibly suffering a mechanical). He might try his luck again and the 33/1 is just about acceptable. 

I think it will come down to a sprint finish again, but a tough uphill pull to the line should suit Meersman and Felline perfectly and I think they will be fighting it out for victory, so I'm backing both, which is a little risky I know if a break takes it, but I'm hoping to get at least one of them in the top three here, possibly both.  

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Fabio Felline at 15/1 with Bet365

1pt each-way on Gianni Meersman at 10/1 with Bet365

0.3pts each-way on Dries Devenyns at 33/1 with Paddy Power

0.25pts each-way on Pelle Bilbao at 40/1 with Ladbrokes

Matchbets

Bilbao to beat Bakelants - 2pts at 11/10 with Bet365

Meersman to beat Arndt and Felline to beat Sbaragli - 2pts at 1.33/1 with Bet365