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Published on Saturday, 27 August 2016 23:50

Vuelta Stage  10

Lugones to Lagos de Covadonga

Monday 29th August, 188.7kms 

We return to one of the most legendary climbs of the Vuelta two years after the last time up, which saw Prymeslaw Niemiec cling on for a famous stage win ahead of Valverde, Rodriguez and Contador.

What a day today! David de la Cruz is my new hero after an incredible ride to land us a monster winner. I got 125/1 with Ladbrokes and also got matched at 130 on Betfair with the view to trading it in play, but as I was on a beach for most of the day, by the time I was able to lay out he was already just 2/1! He did it brilliantly though, chasing down Devenyns who had probably only intended to stretch things out for a later attack from Frank, but as DLC was so strong, and the rest looked at each other behind, their lead suddenly jumped to an uncatchable 30" or so with just 3kms to go.

And not only was he rewarded with the stage win, but he also took over the red jersey, something I said I think Movistar wouldn't have minded too much about. We also had De Gendt and Frank in the break,so I'm delighted that we got something out of having three in the break and calling it so well, and in fact it was the best priced of all my picks that won! And to cap it off, all the matchbets won to add another 10pts to the pot to make it over 44pts on the day and something like +80pts for the Vuelta so far. Good to hear that a lot of you got on today at various prices like 100/1 and 80/1, a good day all round!

Etixx continue to perform exceptionally well in this race and now lead the Team Classification by 3'33" from Movistar, but it's a long way to go yet. No real change with regards the GC or how they went today, but Contador looked good again and his DS has been saying he felt much better today than yesterday. Brambilla looked impressive sprinting up the hill away from Sanchez and Valverde. 

The climb up the Lagos de Covadonga always plays a significant part in this race and it could well make big differences to the general classification again this time around.. La Camperona started to separate the men from the boys, the Alto del Naranco .....Can the Covadonga shake things up even further? 

The first part is a pleasant ride through the Asturian coast, departing from Lugones, but it will become much less relaxed as we arrive at Fito Peak, a 6.2km climb with an inclination of 7.8%, 40 kilometres from the finish-line. After this, the main attraction will be the spectacular climb up the Lagos de Covadonga, one of the most iconic Vuelta climbs with a route of 12.2km and an average gradient of 7.2%, including the famous La Huesera stretch, with a slope of 13%. If the weather is good, this stage could provide some spectacular images. The last time they came up here though in 2014 the weather was pretty awful, leading to a crash for Dan Martin.

The Route

A flatish route for 140kms with a few lumps and bumps along the way, but nothing really to worry about. It's an opening 140kms that will suit strong rouleurs as they look to build a big lead ahead of the climbs.

After 140kms they reach the Cat 1 Alto del Mirador del Fito, which averages a tough 7.8% over 6.2kms. A 10km descent takes them down to the valley and through the intermediate sprint at Cangas de Onis, just 22kms from the finish. Almost straight away after the intermediate sprint they start climbing and climb for nearly 22kms by the time they reach the summit.  The categorised part of the climb is 14kms at an average of 7%, but there are parts that hit well in to the double digits of 10-15%. 

With 2kms to go they roll through a slight downhill section that you can see in the video above before they turn right a little and up the final kilometre to the finish which averages 6.4%. 

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Contenders and Favourites

This stage is a little bit similar to stage 8 to La Camperona in that it's pretty flat for the majority of the stage and then kicks up brutally at the end to the finish at the Lagos de Cavadonga. The big difference in this stage is the Mirador del Fito climb which comes with just 40kms to go, a tough Cat 1 climb which is sure to blow the race to pieces ahead of the final ascension. A fast 10km descent is followed by 10kms along the flat and then they hit the final climb. And what a beast it is - 14kms at 7%, but the average from kilometre 2 to 10 is over 9.4%.. This is almost a race to the 4kms to go mark, as it does get easier from then on, with gradients closer to 6-8% but with also a downhill section for a while. 

I think this may not be a break day today though.. there will be a break of course, but I think the final Cat 1 will knock minutes off their lead as the GC teams look to put the pressure on and thin out the peloton. If their lead is 6-8 minute starting it, it might be less than 4 by the top of it and maybe 2-3 minutes by the time they start the final climb. The last time up here in 2014, the break held a lead of 3'42" starting the climb and by the time Valverde crossed the line in 2nd place, he had pulled it back to just 5 seconds! So it is possible to make back over 3 1/2 minutes on this climb, but of course it depends on who's out front and how hard they are riding behind. 

That means the break would be doomed on such a long and hard final climb I think. Also, the prize of winning on the Lagos de Covodonga climb is one that the top riders will be looking to claim and I think the likes of Movistar will be looking to put Froome under pressure again to try to see if they can squeeze him out of the reckoning completely after he displated signs of weakness on Saturday.

So, at the risk of drawing a total blank when the break takes all the placings, I'm going to ignore the break for this one, and may even be laying the break at low prices if they get there as they hit the Cat 1. So who can win it then on such a brutal climb? 

You have to start with Nairo Quintana I guess after his performance on La Camperona, he danced away from Froome and Contador and if there hadn't been a break up the road, Movistar would have won yet another stage. I make that the third stage they should have won in this race had they given a shit about trying to pull back breaks and go for stage wins.

Movistar are clearly the strongest team in the race and will have plenty of men at the front of the race hitting the Mirador del Fito, and I would expect there to be at least Valverde, Fernandez, Erviti and Dani Moreno with NQ hitting the last climb. It will be interesting to see whether Nairo decides to sit and wait and cover, or go on the attack again. I think if he senses blood like he did with Froome on stage 8, he will go for the jugular. 

Alberto Contador rode really well on this stage two years ago and I am intrigued to see how he goes in this one again this time around. I was genuinely amazed to see him a) even involved at the front of the race with 2kms to go, and b) to see him catch and dance away from Froome in the last 300m. That was a seriously ballsy ride given the amount of bandages he had all over him, it must have been seriously painful and uncomfortable.

He is suited to a climb like this, and I think he would welcome an attack by someone like Quintana so he can maybe sit on his wheel for as long as he can and move closer to a podium spot, which I think is most definitely on the cards again, after looking a long shot at the end of stage 7. If he can ride anything like he did two years ago he could take 30" or more out of some of those around him, a 10" or even 6" or 4" bonus for a top 3 placing will surely help no end. 

Alejandro Valverde would have won this stage 2 years ago, but it was yet another example of Movistar blowing a stage win by not riding early enough. He is going as well as he did in 2014, he struggled a bit today on the really steep parts but recovered and finished with Froome, just 8" behind Contador. This finish suits him perfectly, a hard build up where he can sit in and save energy as Quintana will not be looking to set the pace I think, a downhill section to get to the front of the group or attack away on, and a final uphill section which is exactly his kind of finish, 1km at 6.4%. 

Gianluca Brambilla has been riding fantastically in this race too and is sitting pretty in the top 10, in 9th place. He found it tough going, like so many others, on the 20% gradients of stage 8. He was right there with some of the best climbers in the world though, and I think if he can ride as well as he did there he has a huge chance on this stage. He should be able to sit in there on the tough 8kms at 9.4%, and the last 4kms are absolutely perfect for him..

I could see him attacking with just around 2kms to go as they are getting over the top of the main part of the climb, flying down the descent part, either on his own, or right at the front of the peloton, and positioning is vital coming in to the last kilometre, as momentum as you hit that final uphill part can be vital. He would have the kick on a finish like this to beat most challengers. His finish today impressed me again and filled me with more confidence - the 50/1 with Bet365 is crying out to be taken. 

I don't think Froome will be winning it, but I wouldn't be surprised either to see him suddenly start doing something in this race to try to challenge Quintana at least. I can't have him at just 7/1 though.. Esteban Chaves has been disappointing so far and I don't think this climb suits him either. Sergio Pardilla is riding well and accelerated away from the GC favourites on La Camperona, only to be passed by Contador just near the finish. He could attack again, either early on the climb or in the last 3-4kms again and could do ok too. 

The likes of Geniez, Frank, De Gendt are way too short for considering for tomorrow after their efforts today, but there are some riders I think have been waiting and biding their time for an attack, but whether tomorrow is the day for it or not is another question.. Guys like Rolland, Dombrowski, Hermans, Losada, Fraile, Vervaeke, Bennett, Gesink, Bouet and Monfort.. I think some might get involved tomorrow, but Dombrowski, Fraile and Rolland are too short I think.

AndTejay Van Garderen - what do we make of him - will he do anything in this race? He really needs something to rescue his summer as it has been a huge disappointment for him and BMC and he must be desperate to try to make amends. But when? If he's trying to ride himself in to form, I am not sure he's there yet, he should be finishing somewhere near the GC group and not nine and a half minutes behind them. I think I'll wait another few days for him at least, he's a crazy price at 40/1 (and even crazier at 25/1), a little like LL Sanchez was a crazy price today at 5/1.  

After such a great day today, I'm loathe to give much back on what I think is a very difficult stage to call. The break has a chance of course, I've already outlined my feelings on how Movistar just don't care about chasing breaks it seems, but they really should today I think as they have a stage winner in Valverde and potentially the red jersey to take back with Nairo.

I think the break will be caught on the final climb and Brambilla can continue Etixx's incredible start to this race and take their 4th stage win. I know it goes against the grain with the fact that De La Cruz is in Red, but he will either be a) going so well in the GC group that he will roll in with them and Brambilla will have the freedom to attack, or b) he will have been dropped on the steeper parts of the climb after such a hard ride today and Brambilla will be free again to attack.. As he is fighting for a top 10 he will not be expected to sit and wait for DLC.  

Update: 10:45am - Just read on the Lotto Soudal Facebook page that they are planning on having someone in the break again today and named Vervaeke, Montfort and Armée as the likely lads.. at 100/1, 150/1 and 200/1 they're worth 0.2pts each-way for an interest..

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Gianluca Brambilla at 50/1 with Bet365 

0.5pts each-way on Alejandro Valverde at 12/1 with Paddy Power

0.2pts each-way on Vervaeke, Montfort and Armée at 100/1, 150/1 and 200/1

Matchbets

Brambilla to beat S Sanchez - 3pts at 8/11 with Bet365

Brambilla to beat S Sanchez, Valverde to beat Konig and Contador to beat Chaves - 2pts on the treble at 5/2 with PP