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- Published on Saturday, 22 August 2015 01:10
Vuelta Team Classification
Who will be the top squad in 2015?
Katusha won this competition by a massive 39 minutes last year from Movistar with Tinkoff Saxo a minute further back in 3rd place. It helped of course that they finished with all 9 starters, but Joaquim Rodriguez led the line with seven top 5 placings and a 4th place overall result, with Daniel Moreno and Giampaolo Caruso also faring well, finishing in 11th and 15th place.
This week saw the news break of a positive test for Giampaolo Caruso for EPO from a sample taken as far back as 2012, which is a very significant development that shows the UCI are taking the back-testing of samples very seriously and have developed new methods to find traces of EPO abuse. It does cast a shadow on his, and his team's performances once again, was he juiced up when helping them win the team prize last year? Who knows, but maybe if more of this happens it will drive more and more cheats out the sport as it looks like even when you think you've gotten away with it, you can still be convicted.
Can Katusha retain their title, or will they be reeling after another positive conviction for a rider who would have been a key member of their squad here, following on from Paolini's cocaine positive not so long ago? Will the team of Galacticos from Astana live up to their billing as one of the strongest squads to ever start a Grand Tour? Or can a very powerful looking Movistar team dominate the stages, the GC and the team prize? Let's take a look at some of the top favourites then for the prize.
Astana - Nibali, Aru, Landa, Tiralongo, Rosa, Cataldo, Zanotti, Zeits, Sanchez. 11/8 best price with Paddy Power.
What a lineup Astana have selected for this race - each one of Aru, Nibali and Landa could be team leaders and it looks like they are saying they'll let the road decide who will take on the mantle of protected rider. Having three star riders like Nibs, Aru and Landa means they can really mix it up though and attack repeatedly, putting the other teams under pressure.
It also means that these three guys have good probabilities of finishing high up on quite a lot of stages, as you'd expect them to be there or thereabouts on most tough stages. Add in strong climbers like Cataldo, Tiralongo and Sanchez, who could either work hard and finish high-ish on uphill stages, or even get in long breaks that make it, and they should have plenty of men to get them the results that will help with the team classification. Although good riders in their own rights, Rosa, Zanotti and Zeits are the weak links though.
It will be fascinating to see how things pan out for Astana. I'm not sure Nibali will be such a force and he wasn't initially supposed to be doing this race, but he also has a point to prove after the TDF and needs to try to get a decent result this year, Italian Champion and a stage in the Tour wouldn't excatly have been his (or Vino's) targets for this year. Aru looks the most likely team leader, given how well he rode last year, he was one of the last to hold on to the coat-tails of the top 4 guys on the big stages. Landa might be a bit of a wild card they can let try things and if they don't come off, he falls back in to support duties for the other two. They should be right up there on all the big stages though and Tiralongo and Sanchez are also capable of a decent showing.
They are best price 11/8 with Paddy Power, as short as evens, and they look a pretty solid bed for the Team Prize. I expect Aru will do very well on all the key mountain stages and Nibali, Landa, Tiralongo, Cataldo and Sanchez are all very capable of top place finishes on the hillier days. They won the team classification in the Giro with a team that also contained Landa, Aru, Sanchez, Tiralongo, Rosa, Zeits and Cataldo – beating BMC by more than 43 minutes! The two riders coming to their squad of nine, Nibali and Zanotti, are a lot stronger replacements. They look one of the best bets for the Vuelta in my opinion.
Movistar - Valverde, Quintana, Erviti, Amador, Sutherland, Ventoso, Visconti, Rojas, Moreno. 11/4 best price with Paddy Power.
With two out of the top three in the betting, and a very possible two out of the top three in the final GC, barring problems, Movistar could really have a great Vuelta. The KOM jersey and the Points jersey are well within their grasp and there could be several stages with their names on them, including possibly the TTT at the start of the race.
They have brought a very powerful and very experienced squad here to try to help them deliver on all of this too. Quintana and Valverde are the two protected riders of course, but they have also brought the experienced diesel engine Rory Sutherland, strong climbers like Amador, Ventoso and Moreno, and punchy sprinters who can maybe get them high placings on the not so flat stages in Rojas and Visconti.
I can't see Quintnana or Valverde finishing outside the top 10 placings on the key mountain stages (bar breakaway riders) or outside the top 10 on GC (bar accident or illness) and the likes of Sutherland, Moreno and Amador can all finish high up on stages after doing a job for their team leaders. There's also the chance the likes of Visconti or Amador get in breaks to make other teams work and they could land some good results for the team prize.
They are best price 11/4 with Padddy Power, as short as 19/10, so they don't offer an each way value but they should come closest to being able to challenge Astana.
Team Sky - Froome, Roche, Thomas, Kiryienka, Nieve, Knees, Boswell, Henao, Puccio
An interesting team - Froome the obvious leader, but can Thomas step up again and deliver another top GC performance following his great effort at the Tour? He had his 1000/1 backers in a bit of a sweat for quite a long time in the Tour, as he hovered around the top 4 until it went horribly wrong for him on stage 19 when he completely cracked and lost over 20 minutes, seeing him slide from 4th place down to 15th place. Before then he had looked unbelievably strong though, not even smashing his head off a pole after his incident with Barguil could stop him.I think these steeper, sharper climbs won't suit him as much so I can't see him repeating that effort, but he should still go well in the supprt role for Froome.
Roche always does well in Spain and in late summer, but he will be riding support for Froome too. I think he is capable of some top finishes as he tends to ride hard to the finish, even when his job is done and pick up high finishes. Kiryienka will burn up long before the top of climbs, as will Knees and Boswell, but Nieve and Henao could be their secret weapons.
Nieve has been pretty anonymous this year and we haven't seen a great deal of him. 17th in the Giro, with a 9th place showing his best result, He followed that up with a 2nd place at the Tour of Slovenia, but that's not exactly the Tour de France now is it, some guy named Roglic beat him.. Next for him was the Tour de Pologne where he finished 10th in the GC, with the 5th place on the penultimate stage his best result (a stage won by his team-mate Henao). He did finish 1'27" behind Aru in the GC and that is quite a gap. If anything should happen to Froome, Henao should be a good plan B for the GC, and both Nieve and Henao should be capable of producing some high finishes on the tougher stages. They look the third best team to me and look a pretty solid e/w bet to me at 6/1 with Corals and PP
Katusha - Rodriguez, Isaychev, Kochetkov, Losada, Machado, Moreno, Smukulis, Vorganov and Vicioso
Winners of this competition by a country mile last year, even though Rodriguez only finished 4th on the GC and was no match for the best climbers once they got in to top gear. Their victory was helped by the high finish of Giampaolo Caruso in 15th place, a result we have to wonder about now that he has been popped this week for EPO. Daniel Moreno also finished high up on the GC thanks to plenty of good placings on key stages.
It's hard to see them repeat that result this year I think - Rodriguez is not the same rider he used to be, although he always seems to do well in the Vuelta. He was pretty average for most of the TDF and if he repeats some of those rides he'll be well off the pace. Moreno hasn't been himself either this year at all (maybe the team has decided to race cleaner this year?) and with the shadow of the EPO bust hanging over them I think they might struggle
Just today the team was thrust into further chaos as the news broke that Trofimov and Silin were thrown off the vuelta team. Apparently they turned up at the Rio airport drunk after the Olympic test event in Brazil and Katusha team management have taken a very dim view of their behaviour. The replacements, Tiago Machado and Gatis Smakulis are good riders, but haven’t had great seasons and were left out the original squad for a reason, they were not seen to be up to the task! I think they could be a bit of a shambles in this race and I’m not interested in backing them, despite the fact they’re reigning champions.
Tinkoff-Saxo - Majka, Sagan, Bennati, Bodnar, Brutt, Hansen, Paulinho, McCarthy, Poljanski
I think Tinkoff are going to struggle in this race without their talisman Alberto Contador, Rafal Majka is a poor substitute for a team leader in my opinion. I think he's over-hyped and has been pretty average this season, a stage win in the Tour apart. Of course he could have a great race and he could do very well, but I don’t think he’ll make the top 6 and he doesn’t look like a podium candidate to me at all. Barring Sagan (and he may not even finish the race) the rest of the squad are pretty average, no chance they’ll be fighting for the Team Classification I think.
AG2R - Pozzovivo, Cherel, Kadri, Bagdonas, Gougeard, Minard, Montaguti, Nocentino, Van Summeren
Pozzovivo is a good team leader, and I expect him to do well, but I don’t know about the rest of the team, there’s no Bardet or Vuillermoz for example. The best riders in the team being Kadri, Cherel and Nocentini, but they’re not the kind of guys who’ll be finishing at the front on all the big stages. Kadri and Cherel are the kind of guys who might be able to go on breaks and could sneak a stage win, but I don’t think it will be anywhere near enough to lift them high up in the team prize. Nocentini is an old favourite of mine who is capable of pulling off a good result at a big price and I’ll be looking to back him I think in a few stages.
Cannondale-Garmin - Martin, Talansky, Mohoric, King, Cardoso, Dombrowski, Howes, Moser, Villela
An interesting looking line-up from Cannondale-Garmin, who were last of the teams to release their squad as usual. Dan Martin comes here after a mixed Tour de France, where he could have and should have won two stages. He got ill in the latter parts of the Tour and slid down the GC from 16th to 39th so I’m sure he’ll be looking to go better here in the Vuelta.
He has done well in Spain in the past, winning a stage and wearing the Mountains jersey in 2011, and took seven top 10 placings in 2014 on his way to finishing an excellent 7th place in the GC. He did well, but he was no match for the top GC guys like Froome, Contador and Aru when they went full gas on the big climbs. It was announced this week though that Martin is leaving C-G, so it will be interesting to see if he just rolls around here without much interest in killing himself or whether he wishes to go out with a bang to add some more $$$ to his new contract, wherever he is going.
Talansky had an even worse Tour, he was almost completely anonymous, he too will be looking to make a mark in the Vuelta.Dombrowski should be an interesting one to watch, he's not a household name yet, but he could well become one - he rode brilliantly recently in the Tour of Utah, winning the big mountain stage to Snowbird, a result that won the overall GC for him too. He also did great in the Tour of California to take 4th place and also finished 2nd in the US road nationals. I'm looking forward to seeing how he climbs in a Grand Tour as tough as this one now. Good team, interesting team for attacking and going on the break, but I can't see them coming near winning the team prize.
BMC - Van Garderen, Sanchez, Atapuma, Burghardt, De Marchi, Drucker, Moinard, Rosskopf, Velits
It will be interesting to see how BMC, and Van Garderen in particular go - it was all going so well in the Tour until Van Garderen got sick and they left pretty empty handed. Sanchez was their best placed rider in 12th, but you had to go down to 53rd place to find the next best rider, Damiano Caruso. They have some real quality dark horses in this squad that could go well for them - Sanchez should go well in his home race after a good showing in the Tour, Atapuma could be a real danger in the hills and could win a breakaway stage, De Marchi is also capable of going well in the hilly stages and going in long breakaways and Moinard, Burghardt and Rosskopf are strong riders too.
They could be a good outside bet for the team classification, it might all depend on whether TVG can ride the best race he possibly can. Unfortunately the bookies have decided en-masse it seems that offering win-only on the Team Classification was a good idea, the miserable prats! Only Boylesports are offering an each-way market and they are 1/5 the odds for th first 3. BMC are 14/1 with them, they're about the only each-way bet I'd recommend.
I can't really see any other teams coming close, I can't understand why Lotto Soudal are so short, around 18-20/1, they will not trouble the likes of Astana, Sky and Movistar
Recommendation:
Astana look to be one of the best bets of the race to me at 11/8 to win this, they should go really well. Ok, it's not a great price, but they could be 1/3 after the first week. Aru, Landa and Nibali will go well, but Tiralongo, Sanchez and the rest could all play their part to score good results. 4pts win at 11/8.
0.5pts each-way on BMC at 14/1 with Boylesports
