- Details
- Published on Wednesday, 26 August 2015 22:54
Vuelta Stage 6
Córdoba to S. de Cazorla
Thurs 27th Aug, 200.3kms
Just over 200kms in today's stage, making it the fourth longest stage of the Vuelta on a route that takes them across the centre of Spain over increasingly lumpy terrain. They take in two Cat 3 climbs, including one at the finish in Sierra de Cazorla but a whole host of small uncategorised climbs too.
We have yet to see a breakaway stage winner in the Vuelta, could we see one today? It's a long day in the saddle at 200kms, and it is going to be very hot. The forecast is for it to be in the 30s for most of the afternoon, hitting temperatures in excess of 35° around the time the stage finishes. With a flattish start to the stage in the opening 30kms, it is sure to be a brutally fast start to the stage before the break gets away. Once on the rolling hills though they will have a tail wind for a lot of the route which will help a breakaways efforts.
Got some things right in today's stage, but unfortunately didn't get the most important things right and didn't land the winner, but the e/w at 4/1 gave us our stake back again on Deggers. I was right with G-A delivering Deggers with 300m or less to go, but he was not able to finish it off again. What I didn't expect to happen was for him to be beaten by Caleb Ewan, a young guy who has suffered badly for the past few days. His finishing kick was pretty awesome, beating some top guys. It was a harder finish than what many expected and Bouhanni was miles off the pace in 93rd place. Sagan also struggled to come by Deggers and Ewan but still managed to land another podium place, he was a poor favourite for sure. It's hard to believe that Richeze was right there as they started the sprint in the first 5 or 6 and finished in 54th place, a pretty incredible drop, was like he broke his bike or something.
The names in the top 20 shows how tough the finish was, guys like Pozzovivo, Moreno, Froome, S Sanchez and Rodriguez were all there. There was a strange situation and a bit of a slip-up by some of the GC favourites as a small gap in the peloton on the line led to a 6" gap between Froome's group and Quintana's group, but more importantly for the GC, Chaves was in the second group, Dumoulin in the first, so Dumoulin took over the race lead by just 1".
The Route
This stage is a total contrast to the previous two stages where there was hardly any climbing at all - this route has hardly a meter of flat roads after the opening 30kms. They generally head east, zig-zagging a little through the coutryside, leaving Cordoba and gradually rising until they reach the 130km mark, where they then descend a little before starting up the first Cat 3 climb of the day to Allto de Baeza, a long climb at 11.8kms, but it averages just 3.9%, so nothing too difficult.
The road continues along a plateau for another 20kms until they reach Torreperogil, before they start descending down to about the 22km to go mark. They now start climbing toward the finish, and although the categorised climb to the finish is just 3kms long, they are actually climbing for the full 22kms from the bottom of the valley. Rather strangely, the intermedate sprint comes with just 14.8km to go, while on the final climb, rather than being on a flatter section of the course, a sprint most likely to be fought out by Sagan and Valverde.
The final climb is a tough one too - it's only a Cat 3, but that's because it's so short in terms of the categorised distance. After a little descent from the 5km to 3km to go mark, it then kicks up at 10% for the next kilometre, then eases off a little for a kilometre before kicking up again at 10% for the final kilometre, rising all the way to the line.
Route Map
Profile
Last Kms
Contenders and Favourites
I think a break could have a good chance today, there have been some tough stages over the last few days and the GC men might want to take it easy with a tough stage to come the next day with the 1st Cat summit finish to Alto de Capileira. If we get a strong break of guys who are no danger to the GC they could build up a big lead, a lead that might be hard to catch.
So who are the kind of guys that could get in the break? That's the million dollar question, the breakaway lottery! We have to start with Caja Rural I think as they are bound to try to get someone in the break again. Omar Fraile and Pello Bilboa have been active so far in the race and have looked the strongest and more ambitious of the Caja crew. But they also have the likes of Amets Txurukka, David Arroyo or Ángel Madrazo who could try to get away in a break today. Amets Txurruka will probably be fancied by some but I can't have him even at 100/1 - he is just too inconsistent and always seems to fail to get the job done. David Arroyo is nearly 6 minutes down now so he might be able to get in the break without too many in the GC worrying about him.
Team Europcar are bound to try to get someone in the break also, they need all the exposure they can get - it was Antoine Duchesne today. Who, is the question again, possibly Jerome Cousin or Romain Sicard. Orica GreenEdge have some good breakaway candidates for days like this. Cameron Meyer springs to mind as one who could try to get up the road on a day like this - a combination of a good diesel engine and good climbing legs are what are needed. He won the Herald Sun Tour at the start of the year and has been pretty lightly raced this year with lots of big gaps between his races. He did however manage a decent 4th place behind Madrazo, Izagirre and Txurruka in the Prueba Villafranca-Ordiziako Klasika a few weeks ago, so it looks like his legs are coming good again in time for the Vuelta. He has come close to winning a stage in 2012, finishing 2nd behind Steve Cummings, maybe he can go one better this year. OGE also have Mitchell Docker, Matthew Hayman and Jens Keukeleire who could all get up the road.
Other than that? FDJ haven't done much so far this race and their DS has been moaning about how bad they are - they might be made go on the attack.. whether they can get in the break of the day or not is another question! Cannondale Garmin could send Alex Howes or Ben King on the attack, IAM could send Chavanel and Lotto-Soudal could send Thomas de Gendt. Etixx could send Nikki Terpstra or Iljo Keisse on a day that resembles the rolling Flanders or Ardennes profiles, but Keisse has been in the break today so it's unlikely he will go again.
I give it about a 40% chance that the break will make it tomorrow, but in case they don't we're bound to see a GC battle up that final climb again. It's a little similar to stage 2 and we saw the way that turned out. I think though that if we were to ride stage 2 again we would see a different sort of outcome, so we should see something different I think tomorrow.
Valverde held back on St2, as Quintana was up the road and wasn't in a position to do anything at the finish. On stage 4 he took it in to his own hands and proved to be the strongest on the uphill sprint. Strongest, and smartest, and not only did he win that stage, but he also declared afterwards that stage 6 suited him a lot better. It is a tricky finish again with a tight left hander just 100m from the line - a finish that suits Valverde again and if it comes down to a reduced dash to the line, there are few will beat him. Quitana attacked but faded in the heat on stage 2, he could well attack again here on the steep parts 2kms out, if only to pull a select group after him to increase Valverde's chances of winning the sprint.
Dan Martin has been unlucky again (what's that about the luck of the Irish?), going too late on the chase after Chaves and co on stage 2 (was he reluctant to chase down his cousin??!!) and then had two wheel changes inside the last 25kms and a crash in the last 3kms on stage 4 and still managed to finish flying in 24th place, in the same time as Valverde. He clearly has good legs and he is sure to like a finish like this. Add in the fact that a stage win and a 15" gap will put him in to the leader's jersey and there is big incentive for him to attack tomorrow. I think he has a big chance of a top result tomorrow and the 12/1 looks ok with Bet365.
Joaquim Rodriguez finished the best of the rest on St2, leading home Quintana and Froome, but was unable to go with Valverde and Sagan on St4, but he could like this stage too. Rodriguez continues to be priced up according to his reputation and history, rather than his current ability and he is far too short for me tomorrow at around 7/1.
Can Esteban Chaves pull off another surprise on this finish, like his stage win on St2? If he can his price of 20/1 will look the bet of the Vuelta. It will be harder for him to get away again though, and as impressive as he was on Sunday I can't see him doing it again here. Daniel Moreno could be a big danger again though on a finish like this - he was right up there with Valverde and Sagan on St4, landing the e/w bets for us. So far on the uphill finishes, if you include today's uphill sprint finish, Moreno has finished 3rd, 8th and 9th, so clearly has really good legs at the moment. 9/2 is a ridiculous price though at Paddy Power, the 8/1 with Bet365 is more backable e/w.
I think this finish will be too much for Sagan this time, he could be showing signs of tiring after a pretty hectic opening few days. Nico Roche is in great shape at at the moment, he looks leaner and lighter than at any time this year I think and he looks keen to attack and be right at the front. If he can stay with the strong climbers through the steeper parts, which he should be able to, he might be able to attack again in the last kilometre. 25/1 might be worth a small investment, nothing major though. Dom Pozzovivo seems to be in good shape as well, he sprinted to 7th place in today's stage! He was caught out a little on Caminito del Rey but finished 18th, and was 14th behind Valverde on St4. He might be more suited to the longer climbs to come though but should still go well tomorrow.
Chris Froome and Fabio Aru look insanely big prices at 50/1, but they are unlikely to be challenging the puncheurs i think on this stage. Darwin Atapuma, Jose Goncalves, Sergio Henao and Samu Sanchez are others who could go well on this finish, but as unoriginal as it is to back the favourite, I think we have to be on Valverde tomorrow given how well he is going, and how he thinks this stage suits him perfectly. Dani Moreno should be right up there with him, and Dan Martin has a big chance of finally challenging for the stage win too.
Recommendations:
2pts win on Valverde at 5/2 with Bet365
0.5pts each-way on Dan Martin at 12/1 with Sportingbet
0.5pts each-way on Daniel Moreno at 8/1 with Bet365
0.2pts each-way on Cam Meyer at 300/1 with PP
0.1pts each-way on Thomas de Gendt at 200/1 with Corals
Matchbets
Arroyo to beat Zubeldia - 2pts at 5/6 with Bet365
Pozzovivo to beat Aru - 1.8pts at 4/6 with Bet365
Roche to beat Chaves - 1.5pts at evens with Bet365
