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Published on Monday, 24 August 2015 20:04

Vuelta Stage 4

Estepona to Vejer de la Frontera

Tuesday 25th August, 209.6kms 

From one side of the southern tip of Spain to the other, via the Parque Natural Los Alcornocales, this is a pretty featureless and boring stage with an interesting finish through narrow streets in Vejer de la Frontera. It could get interesting also out on the road if they meet some crosswinds coming in off the sea after they hit Cadiz.

Nearly half of this stage is spent on, or very near the coast, first on the eastern side, on the coast of the Alboran sea, and then when they remerge on the western side they are on the Atlantic coast. We could see winds as they sweep across the plains in between, we could see winds on the coastal run for home when the pace is really up. The forecast at the moment is for a west of north-westerly wind coming in off the Atlantic side, meaning they will have a cross/headwind for most of the route across the inland parts and then a cross/tail-wind after they turn and head south-west from Cadiz to the finish. I think we could see some problems and echelons as the winds will be between 13 and 21kmph in the afternoon and some teams are bound to try to break things up. 

So, close, but no cigar today with Degenkolb taking 3rd in the sprint. He seemed to be in a great position with 2kms to go, with 3 team-mates in front of him, and even with 800m to go he still seemed to be in pole position. Significantly, around 1km to go Peter Sagan made a move forward and barged his way in to the front of the line, taking Degenkolb's wheel. It was a smart move, the move of an experienced man and it paid dividends as he came off Deggers wheel to win the sprint. Finally, after what feels like 50 2nd places he got his nose in front, I was pleased for him, even if he beat Degenkolb.

Bouhanni lacked top gear, the crashes he suffered on stage 2 and again today apparently must have blunted his speed. It was bit of a disaster in the match-bets though with all four losing, Boeckmans must be ill or something, he came home 8'40" down after getting dropped on the last climb. Sagan beat Degenkolb of course and Soupe pulled off much earlier than expected and so Reguigui beat him. Not great, hoping for better tomorrow! 

The Route

The race continues heading along the southern point of Spain, leaving Estepona and down along the coast towards San Roque before turning north and inland after around 40kms. It's a long stage at 213.6kms, but it's practically flat for the whole duration of the stage, with no categorised climbs and just a few lumps to get over along the way.

After 140kms they arrive at Puerto Real and cross the water over to Cadiz, scene of the departure point of the Vuelta 12 months ago. They take a tour around the old town before riding across the water-breaker behind the beach and on through San Fernando. The intermediate sprint comes quite late in the stage, coming just 35kms from the finish in Chiclana de la Frontera, so there's a high probability that the break might have been pulled to allow the Green Jersey candidates an extra shot at points before the finish. 

Things change though in terms of terrain inside the last 4kms as they arrive at Vejer de la Frontera, as they suddenly hit a hill with 4kms to go. And it's quite the obstacle for the sprinters to have to get over, it should see to many of their chances - as they pass the 4kms to go mark the road rises up at a steep gradient of 14% for 1km and then rises for another kilometre at 5%. It then descends for 1500m before a final kick up to the line with 500m at 8%. The roads in Vejer de la Frontera are incredibly narrow in places, you can see a shot of the Calle de la Corredera which they ride through in the last 3kms below.. This will hinder a chase or a big peloton but will help lone breakaway riders to stay away in the final stages. 

Contenders and Favourites

This looks like one of those stages that you won't mind missing for 90% of the coverage but will be worth watching for the last 20 minutes. Mile after mile of flat nothingness, but there is the possibility that as they hit the coast around Cadiz, where they change direction a few times and run along the coast for a while that we could see coastal winds cause some echelons and splits. The pace will be high at that point as there are less than 60kms to go so we could see some teams look to try to split it so the GC men will have to be alert so there is no repeat of stage 2 of the TDF. 

It does look like the stage will be decided by attacks on, or just before that climb with 4kms to go. The punchier riders will be looking to dance away up the narrow streets and we could get a small, elite selection fighting it out a little ahead of a peloton that could be pretty strung out behind. 

The final 4kms should be where this stage is won, I don't think a break will make it, there is too much of a chance of extremely high speeds in the last 60kms in an effort to split the race, and there are several teams who will have earmarked this stage.

When I first started looking at this stage a few days ago, one guy who I thought might like this finish was Peter Sagan - an uphill, tricky finish through narrow streets that will require guts, bravery, strength, guile and experience. A finish made for Sagan you might say. And then he goes and wins today - now that means two things - one, it means he is in brilliant shape and even more likely to be in the running for this stage. But two, he is probably half the price he would have been had he not gone and won today. I was thinking he'd be 6-8/1 or so, instead he is best price 4/1 with Bet365, is as short as 3/1. I still think he has a brilliant chance of winning this stage, but let's take a look at who his rivals could be.

Second favourite is Alejandro Valverde and he will have a big chance on this stage again too. He was right up there today at the front coming in to the last kilometres, and finished 21st on the stage. He looks strong and this uphill finish will suit him, especially as it eases off a little and descends from 2kms to go, allowing him to get ready for the sprint finish. I think he will be right up there and will like this finish so is a big danger. 

Daniel Moreno and Joaquim Rodriguez are the same price depending on the bookie at 9/1, and both have a good chance on a finish like this. Moreno has been going very well of late, taking two 2nd places and a 1st place in the Vuelta a Burgos, finishing 3rd in the GC. All three of those stages were on tough uphill finishes, the stage win being on an Esp finish. He also showed he had good legs on Sunday when he finished 9th on the stage with none other than Froome and Valverde for company. He could take advantage of the others watching Rodriguez and skip away near the finish. One thing that would worry me though is that his win in Burgos was his first victory since stage 9 of the Vuelta in 2013. 

Rodriguez obviously has a great chance on a finish like this also, he showed Sunday that he has good legs too, he jumped after the Roche group in the last kilometre and caught and passed Quintana to finish 5th on the stage, a result that surprised me a little. If it comes to a sprint finish between a little group of riders, he may not come out on top though, I think he'll have to solo to victory. 

Dan Martin went very well on stage 2, but once again his tactics left him down. He should have gone with Roche and Chaves when they went, instead he was hemmed in again on the inside and watched as the break rode away from him. He kicked well at the start and seemed to be closing, but then seemed to run out of gas and struggled to bridge the final part. This hill is a lot shorter and if he can be with the leaders as they hit the last kick up with 500m to go he could have a big chance. At 12/1 with Paddy Power he's tempting, but I fear that in such a tactical, tricky finish he will screw it up again and come home in 4th or 5th. 

The sprinters are around 25/1, but I don't think they will be involved, Bouhanni isn't 100% I think after those crashes and Degenkolb showed today that he isn't exactly at the top of his game yet either. Esteban Chaves was excellent on Sunday, but now he's in the red jersey I think he will play it a bit more conservatively. On a tricky finish like this I think he will be just happy to come home with, or close to the leaders and hang on to his jersey. 

Nico Roche was superb on Sunday but the steep gradients at the finish were just too much for him, he couldn't match the lightweight figure of Chaves or the power of Dumoulin. He could try again tomorrow, he's only 15" behind Chaves, so a stage win and a small gap over Chaves puts him in to red. And what about Dumoulin? He seems full of power and these slopes are similar, but shorter to Sunday's finish. He could be right up there again.

Any other wildcards? Well it's hard to see any others getting involved, it looks like it is going to be amongst those named above, but others that could have a shot include Simon Gerrans, Fabio Aru, Chris Froome, Jempy Drucker and Amets Txurukka.

I think though with confidence sky high after today's stage win, with a finish that is ideally suited to him and with a team that seem prepared to bury themselves to put him in a position to win then Sagan has to be a strong fancy for tomorrow. He may not finish this race but he could leave with a couple of stage wins and a bundle of confidence ahead of the Worlds in Richmond. Daniel Moreno and Valverde could run him close though. 

Recommendations:

1.5pts win on Peter Sagan at 4/1 with Bet365

0.5pts e/w on Daniel Moreno at 12/1 with Corals

Matchbets

Joaquim Rodriguez to beat Dan Martin - 1.5pts at 10/11

Mikel Nieve to Beat Mikel Landa - 1pt at 11/10