Details

Published on Sunday, 23 August 2015 20:24

Vuelta Stage 3

Mijas to Málaga

Monday 24th August, 158.4kms 

After a day inland, we're back on the coast for a stage that takes in some more of the sights of the beautiful Costa del Sol. They leave the stunning white-washed town of Mijas, and after a loopy route that takes them inland and in to the hills they some back to the coast and on to Malaga.

The Vuelta last visited Málaga in 2010 and it was a very different stage stage ending as they finished on the uphill pull to the Castle of Gibralfaro. Philippe Gilbert won that day from Rodriguez, Anton and Nibali and took the Red Jersey of leader which he held until stage 9 when Anton took it off him. There is a little climb just before the finish today though, but it comes with nearly 5kms to go and the last kilometres are flat, which should see a sprint finish of some sort.  

What a result today with Esteban Chaves doing the business for us with a superb attack inside the last 4kms. Nairo Quitana looked lively and decided to attack his rivals early. Roche marked the move, and looked very strong - Geraint Thomas did say at the end of the TTT the day before the Nico was in superb shape. we should have listened, he must have been 100/1 for today's stage.

Dumoulin was impressive on his first race back and almost won the stage, but Chaves was just too good for him. Two out of the three match bets landed too to make it a fantastic start to the Vuelta for me with a 48pt profit. We were also unlucky with the Dan Martin each-way bet, as he finished in fourth, but once again he showed that his tactics and alertness were just not good enough as he missed the key move, although looking one of the strongest, and also left his attack too late when it did come. I know that there wasn't any of the 200/1 available for very long, so I hope some of you at least got the 33/1 that was available with Bet365, that was still a pretty decent winner.

A big crash marred the middle of the stage and it saw Vincenzo Nibali get held up for quite a while and in his efforts to get back on get one of the most outrageous, ridiculous and quite frankly, stupid sticky bottle tows you are ever likely to see as he zoomed away from the group he was with at about 60mph. He was rightly disqualifed and it's good news and bad news for our bets I think - the good news is that if there was any doubt that Aru was going to be the team leader then I think that has been put to bed and the team will have to get behind Aru now. The bad news is that our Team Classification bet on Astana is in tatters now, with one of the likely high finishers Nibali gone from the race and Tiralongo smashed up from his crash. Hard to see them recover from that and go on to win it now. Sky have shortened up to 7/4 favourites with Bet365 but it looks like Astana are still short with others. 

The Route

It's another shortish stage at just 158.4kms, but it should be another scorcher on the Costa del Sol. They head back to the coast but start heading inland right from the flag-drop and in to the hills, starting the first climb of the day after just 8kms. And it's a tough start they face - it may be only a Cat 3 (probably because of its distance from the finish) but it's nasty - 6kms at over 7% average. It should see a strong break go and they could build up a big lead over the next 70kms or so. 

Once over the Alto de Mijas they descend for 20kms and continue rolling along flat roads of the plain of the Rio Guadalhorce and pass Malaga after 57kms or so and shortly after they start on the biggest challenge of the day, the Cat 1 climb of the Puerto del León. The climb starts at the 60km mark and it's a long 16kms long, climbing to 925m, averaging 5.4%, hitting a max of 15%. A 30km descent and 16kms on the flat takes them back down to the coast at Torre del Mar for the intermediate sprint. They then spend 25kms running along the coast before they take a little detour inland and up over a little hill with 13kms to go, which drops down to sea-level again with 4.8kms to go for a flat run to the finish. 

Contenders and Favourites

This is an interesting stage in that there are multiple ways that it could be won. We will see an early break go and with a tough early climb, they could build a big lead as the peloton will probably just roll up it. They then have 45kms to time trial and get a decent gap ahead of the big climb of the day, and if the stronger members of the break can power up that climb too, there's only 80kms to go, 30kms of which are a descent off the Puerto del León.

Of course if some of the sprinters manage to stick with the peloton over the top of the León, the sprinters teams will want to try to pull the break back. There are not too many opportunities for the sprinters in this race, so expect Cofidis and Giant-Alpecin to be pushing it hard for the last 80kms if Bouhanni and Degenkolb have made it. But then there's the little lump which they crest with 8kms to go so that could give late attackers another chance of trying to deny the sprinters. 

I think though that it will end in a sprint finish - Orica will control things tomorrow and will be helped by Cofidis, Giant-Alpecin and Trek-Factory Racing amongst others. Orica have two reasons to control it - firstly, because Chaves is in Red now and has a good chance of hanging on to it for quite a few stages, they won't want a breakaway rider stealing it back off him. Secondly Caleb Ewan has a chance in the sprint so they will be keen to give him a go. 

Favourite for the stage is Nacer Bouhanni, but we seem to be getting a bit of a conflict of opinion between Paddy Power and Bet365. Bet365 are really worried about Degenkolb, as they make him just 3/1, whereas he is 6/1 with PP and they make Bouhanni their 11/4 favourite, where as PP make Bouhanni just 15/8. All the others so far are 2/1 Bouhanni and between 7/2 and 9/2 Deggers.

Bouhanni is the fastest sprinter in the race, with probably the best leadout in the race with Soupe, Simon, Lemoine and co. and his job would have been made a little bit easier by the abandonment of Pellucchi today early in the stage as a result of a crash, he would have been a danger in sprints like this. Ordinarily, I'd say 11/4 on Bouhanni in a stage like this just had to be taken, but one thing that is a cause for concern is the fact that he came down today in the crash and had to chase hard after the pack. From what I can see on the Cofidis twitter page he got up straight away from the crash without seemingly any injuries and worked to get back in. If that is the case then I'm a bit more confident, I haven't seen him bitchin on Twitter about it yet, so he must be alright!

Degenkolb's team-mate almost pulled off a sensational victory today, displaying an impressive burst of power to climb away with Quintana, Roche and Chaves. Dumoulin could have a good Vuelta I think based on that, he should be a strong candidate for the late time trial also. Degenkolb was good in the Tour and came close to winning on a number of occassions, but just came up short. He always does well in spain and won 4 stages last year on his way to the Green Jersey. He has a superb leadout with him as well with de Kort, Stamsnijder, Mezgec, Dumoulin and Craddock and they are sure to be swarming near the front with 5kms to go. At the prices, the 6/1 has to be taken with PP, it looks a good e/w bet for sure, he should go close. 

Caleb Ewan, the little pocket rocket, is another of the OGE under 12 squad.. Ok, that's not true, but it really looked like some kid had stepped on to the podium today when Chaves was getting his jerseys! Small in stature, but big in heart and power. Same could be said about Ewan, who is also tiny but a very, very powerful sprinter. He has been doing superbly well in lesser ranked races of late, but now this is the big league, his very first Grand Tour. I'm not sure how much assistance he'll get tomorrow for the sprint as OGE should be looking to keep Chaves in Red for as long as possible, he could get several days out of it. It might mean that Ewan is left a little isolated at the finish and he may have to surf wheels. In the hustle and bustle of the first sprint of the Vuelta I'm worried he might get lost. Too short for me (not a pun!) at just 6/1.

Peter Sagan is the same price as Ewan, around 6/1 and if he can repeat his performances of the Tour he could be a danger in the sprint. He looked strong and sharp in the TTT, but just missed out. He rolled in today nearly 21 minutes down so it looks like he was taking it easy ahead of tomorrow. The little lump just before the finish might suit him with a late attack, or he could just get involved in the sprint at the finish also. He is a decent sprinter, but I think there will be a few too fast for him on a flat finish like this one. Too short at 6/1.

Danny Van Poppel has been going well of late, with some good results in races in the last few months - two stages and the points jersey in the Tour de Wallonie, 2nd in the Grand Prix Cerami behind Gilbert and 2nd in the first stage of the Eneco Tour. He will be Trek's man for the sprint and has a brilliant leadout man in the form of Fabian Cancellara. He could go close in this company and his price of 18/1 with PP is worth an ew bet I think.

Kris Boeckmans went through a purple patch in May, winning stages in the Tour de Picardie and the World Ports Classic, and took a 6th and a 4th in sprints in the Tour of Poland and it has been the best season of his career by a mile this year. With Greipel not here then the Lotto-Soudal team will get behind him and he has a pretty decent leadout train as well. I think that he is capable of a top 6, but the podium might be out of reach. 

Kristian Sbaragli, Jempy Drucker and Tom Van Asbroeck are all guys who should be able to get in the top ten tomorrow but I'm not sure they're capable of beating the fastest guys on a sprint like this. Rojas and Richeze look a little big around the 50/1 mark, but how about a late solo effort again from Tom Dumoulin again at 80/1? It's possible!

I think though that this will come down to between the top two in the betting, as they are the fastest two men in the race. At the prices, I'd rather be on Degenkolb each-way at 6/1, but it does look like a stage for Bouhanni also. Danny Boy can come close for us too at 18/1.

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on John Degenkolb at 6/1 with PP (now only 10/3, take the 9/2 with Ladbrokes instead)

0.5pts each-way on Danny Van Poppel at 18/1 with PP

Matchbets:

Boeckmans to beat Richeze - 2pts at 8/11 with 365

Soupe to beat Reguigui - 2pts at 6/5 with 365

John Degenkolb to beat Peter Sagan - 4pts at 8/13 with Ladbrokes

Boeckmans to beat Van Asbroeck - 1.5pts at 4/5 with Ladbrokes